The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I didn’t ask but what are you expecting ? 

I'm expecting exactly where tracking has it, between 50 - 60 million, with a shot at slightly higher if the US reviews are kind to it. 

We still only have a very limited amount of reviews, so I think it will matter if the US critics take to it or not (just as it mattered with Dumbo) for it to go beyond 60 million, but 50-60 million is safe regardless. 

 

And I think that's a pretty practical expectation at that point, and so far the data is suggesting it will fall within that.  

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

Family movies often have a muted Saturday on opening weekend. 

Dumbo, which is pg rating and definitely family friendly had only a 14% increase on it's first Saturday. 

That's not abnormal, even for a family film. 

It also is very dependent on how much of a Thursday gross makes up it's Friday numbers, and with Thursday previews now starting as soon as 4pm, Friday numbers are being inflated even more than before, thus making for a smaller Saturday increase.

Dumbo has 46% rotten tomatoes rating, the movie was panned though heavy. 

 

IMDb it has user rating of 6.6/10 that’s not good 

 

of course it didn’t see a big jump to Saturday 

[dakus]

15 minutes ago, Nova said:

Detective Pikachu will probably end up around

70% of what Ant-man and the wasp did for its Monday on Pulse (6,613) 

53% of Aquaman (8,502) 

50% of Fallen Kingdom (9,310) 

130% of HTTYD (3,724) 

155% of Dumbo (3,069) 

310% of CR (1,560) 

25% of I2 (20,872) 

 

*These are just estimates for where I think Pika will wind up for Monday. But the data is there so when everything gets finalized for Monday, can just use some of these comps 

By vaguely spitballing the numbers, it looks like its suggesting around 70Mish for the non-CBM comps, while 50M or under for the CBM comps (and I2). 70M sounds reasonable and on-point with other observations at this point in time.

Edited May 7, 2019 by dakus

[Minnale101]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I'm expecting exactly where tracking has it, between 50 - 60 million, with a shot at slightly higher if the US reviews are kind to it. 

We still only have a very limited amount of reviews, so I think it will matter if the US critics take to it or not (just as it mattered with Dumbo) for it to go beyond 60 million, but 50-60 million is safe regardless. 

 

And I think that's a pretty practical expectation at that point, and so far the data is suggesting it will fall within that.  

I completely disagree. We should shall see on Thursday though

 

i appreciate you for having this back and forth yet still respectful. You raised good points but I disagree with the premise 

[VanillaSkies]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

Because it had larger previews than a similar sized family movie would have, that's why it dropped on Saturday. 

Shazam Thursday previews also started at 4pm, so it's Friday would have been inflated even more so than usual 7pm previews...

 

From deadline:

EXCLUSIVE: New Line/DC’s Shazam! is shooting toward an estimated $4M-$4.4M tonight from U.S./Canada shows starting at 4PM, 

 

https://deadline.com/2019/04/shazam-pet-sematary-weekend-box-office-opening-1202588955/

[JB33]

$70M is my guess for Detective Pikachu. We'll see. This one's a mystery box so I guess I"m just content to wait and see how it plays out.

[VanillaSkies]

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

I completely disagree. We should shall see on Thursday though

 

i appreciate you for having this back and forth yet still respectful. You raised good points but I disagree with the premise 

Oh, I don't mind that you disagree, that's what these forums are for.
I'd love to see this breakout to 70-80 million this weekend, not because I have a vested interest in the movie but because I like when the BO in general succeeds, and DOM is still down almost 10% for the year. 

I'd be happy with an over-performance, I'm just not seeing anything in today's figures that points towards that. 

 

Now, if it surges to 15-20% of ticket sales tomorrow even with cheap Tuesday to contend with, then I will most certainly be impressed and say that 70+ million is possible. I just need to see the data that supports that before I up the expectations. 

[VanillaSkies]

9 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Dumbo has 46% rotten tomatoes rating, the movie was panned though heavy. 

 

IMDb it has user rating of 6.6/10 that’s not good 

 

of course it didn’t see a big jump to Saturday 

That's part of my slight concern though. 

It's still only 38 reviews or so on RT, and doing a quick review the top US critics are not enjoying it. I'm worried that North American critics might be harder on it, thus bringing down the average. ( I don't think it will go anywhere near 46%, but slipping under 60%, even to 59% would make it rotten)

Again, we shall see. 

So many different variables with this one, and so much more data points needed. 

[Minnale101]

Just now, VanillaSkies said:

That's part of my slight concern though. 

It's still only 38 reviews or so on RT, and doing a quick review the top US critics are not enjoying it. I'm worried that North American critics might be harder on it, thus bringing down the average. ( I don't think it will go anywhere near 46%, but slipping under 60%, even to 59% would make it rotten)

Again, we shall see. 

So many different variables with this one, and so much more data points needed. 

It’s at 70% with 39 reviews now. It’s doing fine 

 

it’s 12am right now. So we’re 2 days away the release 

 

not long very until we see who was closer to prediction 

[Mulder]

9 hours ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-69 (+1), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-161 (+17), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Week

John Wick-82 (+5), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

Holy shit that Pikachu number. 

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-69 (+1), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-172 (+28), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Week

John Wick-86 (+9), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

HOLY FUCK PIKACHU! While not quite double what it sold yesterday this was a huge boost that it needed. If it keeps this momentum up, I definitely think 70+ is very much in the cards. John Wick also did insanely well today as expected. In total Aladdin sold one ticket today (ouch), DP sold an insane 28, and John Wick sold 9.

[Porthos]

At the moment I have seven midnight showings for FFH locally.  Think I'll do the twice a week thing on it until/unless I see a LOT more showings pop up.

 

Will go ahead and pop one in tonight when I do the rest of the reports, but thinking a Thr/Sun schedule for it works best for now.  Maybe even once a week if it really dries up.  56 days is a looooong time, after all.

[kitik]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

56 days is a looooong time, after all.

 

 

Seriously, who the hell is buying movie tickets for July right now?

[Mulder]

Just now, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-69 (+1), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-172 (+28), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Week

John Wick-86 (+9), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

HOLY FUCK PIKACHU! While not quite double what it sold yesterday this was a huge boost that it needed. If it keeps this momentum up, I definitely think 70+ is very much in the cards. John Wick also did insanely well today as expected. In total Aladdin sold one ticket today (ouch), DP sold an insane 28, and John Wick sold 9.

Pikachu's overperformance made me forget a count I'm doing for fun, Far From Home's midnight showings-

FFH-48, 3 screenings (1 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 Regular), First day

 

Ok I just want to point out that pure midnights outdid Aladdin's initial day at my theater by a mile.

[VanillaSkies]

4 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

It’s at 70% with 39 reviews now. It’s doing fine 

 

it’s 12am right now. So we’re 2 days away the release 

 

not long very until we see who was closer to prediction 

Right, but only 27% with top critics, which is slightly worrisome as there are still many top critics that need to add their reviews. 

 

Haha, I feel like we are having a game of point/ counterpoint
You are a good sparring partner, I'll tell you that. 

[Mulder]

Jesus christ this is the tracking thread, not arguing about Pikachu's RT reviews thread, come on guys.

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

 

Seriously, who the hell is buying movie tickets for July right now?

I find it so funny that they gave Captain Marvel and FFH such long presales periods, and for their most anticipated movie Endgame, they gave only 3 weeks. Talk about knowing how to cause a frenzy!

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Right, but only 27% with top critics, which is slightly worrisome as there are still many top critics that need to add their reviews. 

 

Haha, I feel like we are having a game of point/ counterpoint
You are a good sparring partner, I'll tell you that. 

Yeah it’s been fun lol. I don’t pollute this thread anymore by getting off topic. 

 

Lets meet in May 10-12th weekend thread in 4-5 days and see who’s right 

[kitik]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I find it so funny that they gave Captain Marvel and FFH such long presales periods, and for their most anticipated movie Endgame, they gave only 3 weeks. Talk about knowing how to cause a frenzy!

 

On a serious note, I can see why Sony would want to release FFH tickets while Endgame was still super hot.

[Tentatek]

Bohemian Rhapsody got several oscars and grossed almost 1 billion dollars. Critics who? 💃

Captain Marvel?

Aquaman? 💃

 

Longshot flopped, Shazam flopped. 

 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Tentatek

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Jesus christ this is the tracking thread, not arguing about Pikachu's RT reviews thread, come on guys.

The weekend thread is gonna be an unreadable disaster.