The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[That One Girl]

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

The marketplace for comedies is just really not favorable for comedies and seems to only be getting worse. I would not be surprised if none of them released this summer break $15M OW. The Kitchen could be the exception this year, but without even a trailer who the hell knows

 

Booksmart over 20M, legs it to 100M

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

The moms are seeing Poms

I actually think that will open higher at this point. Diane Keaton's power over old white women probably can't be denied (my mom is seeing it just because of her lol), even if it's gonna make half or slightly more of what Book Club did last year.

 

1 minute ago, Biggestgeekever said:

The marketplace for comedies is just really not favorable for comedies and seems to only be getting worse. I would not be surprised if none of them released this summer break $15M OW. The Kitchen could be the exception this year, but without even a trailer who the hell knows

The Kitchen is more of a crime/action movie than a comedy by all accounts.

[Eric Atreides]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Booksmart over 20M, legs it to 100M

Counter-argument: Annapurna

[Nova]

Book Club legged it to $68M. Not saying Poms will do the same but I wouldnt be surprised to see a sleeper hit with that one tbh 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Counter-argument: Annapurna

 

Counter counter argument: it looks great and i wanna see it

[stealthyfrog]

Hopefully Poms is good and does well. STX Entertainment needs a win after taking that massive L with Uglydolls

[Biggestgeekever]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I actually think that will open higher at this point. Diane Keaton's power over old white women probably can't be denied (my mom is seeing it just because of her lol), even if it's gonna make half or slightly more of what Book Club did last year.

 

The Kitchen is more of a crime/action movie than a comedy by all accounts.

I will be stunned if they don't play up the comedy in the trailer. And for what it's worth, the source material has quite a few dark comedic moments.

[Minnale101]

Man like compare this weekend mother’s day to last year mother’s day weekend 

 

the 2 releases last year combined for 35 million 

 

this year depending on what detective pikachu does 

 

it’s anywhere between 80-110 million with detective pikachu, the hustle and poms 

[Minnale101]

Okay today tracking is done for today 

 

Last Monday 

 

Detective pikachu 4992 

 

Dumbo 3069

 

lego man 2 2552

 

How to train your dragon 3723

[FlashMaster659]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-06 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	48.606%	32121	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	16.941%	11195	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
3	07.554%	4992	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	05.066%	3348	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
5	03.617%	2390	Spider-Man Far From Home  (2019)

[Eric Atreides]

3 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Okay today tracking is done for today 

 

Last Monday 

 

Detective pikachu 4992 

 

Dumbo 3069

 

lego man 2 2552

 

How to train your dragon 3723

UM ACKSHUALLY, it's not finalized. You have to wait one more hour so that you know the final 11 PM tickets sold

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

UM ACKSHUALLY, it's not finalized. You have to wait one more hour so that you know the final 11 PM tickets sold

Oh okay thanks 

 

so hoping 5000 is on cards 

 

 

 

[Cappoedameron]

1 hour ago, dakus said:

By vaguely spitballing the numbers, it looks like its suggesting around 70Mish for the non-CBM comps, while 50M or under for the CBM comps (and I2). 70M sounds reasonable and on-point with other observations at this point in time.

Agree with this. Though I think Pika can still surprise us in the next coming days before launch.

[Minnale101]

Dumbo Final Tuesday was not that high of a jump from Monday because that’s when reviews dropped and it got destroyed by critics 

 

detective pikachu has more room to grow 

 

Spider man first day pre sales are done. First day is usually the highest day for long period of time until maybe last 2 weeks until release 

 

The detective pikachu Pokémon go event starts at 4pm est tomorrow 

 

 

 

[dakus]

6 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Agree with this. Though I think Pika can still surprise us in the next coming days before launch.

Oh, I am still absolutely on the 85M train. I really think it'll be shockingly walk-up friendly. I acknowledge that that data isn't currently pointing towards it though.

Edited May 7, 2019 by dakus

[Porthos]

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	6647	8132	18.26%

 

Total Showings Added Today:               9 (includes two non-reserved seating showings)

Total Seats Added Today:                  668

Total Seats Sold Today:                     238

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.4532x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 3 days before release.           

.4656x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 3 days before release.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-3 days:

JW2           443 tickets sold [0 sellouts/118 showings |  9224/12097 seats left  | 23.75% sold]

Pika (JW)    220 tickets sold [0 sellouts/71 showings   | 5639/6941 seats left     | 18.76% sold]

FB2           203 tickets sold [0 sellouts/102 showings | 10987/13876 seats left | 20.82% sold] 

Pika (FBj)   229 tickets sold [0 sellouts/71 showings   |  6253/7598 seats left    | 17.70% sold]

Pika (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

Pika (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Cappoedameron]

2 minutes ago, dakus said:

Oh, I am still absolutely on the 85M train. I really think it'll be shockingly walk-up friendly. I acknowledge that that data isn't currently pointing towards it though.

The data shows at the very least maybe 65-75 range. But I definitely think it can go higher. 

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	9147	9783	6.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      31

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu (which is still in pre-sales).  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.4102x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 17 days before release. 

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

T-17:

Pika:    44  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/78 showings   |  8719/9170 seats left   |  4.92% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.5282x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 17 days before release.

.4236x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 17 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales and FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

T-17 days:

JW2                 96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |   8962/10113 seats left | 11.38% sold]

Aladdin (JW)    32 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   7863/8439 seats left   |   6.83% sold]

FB2                 26 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 11937/13377 seats left |  10.76% sold] 

Aladdin (FB)    32 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   8267/8877 seats left    |  6.87% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-56 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	7	963	1042	7.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      79

 

No comps at the moment.  Might add some in as showings increase or decide to showcase a couple of theaters. Gonna think on it over the next couple of days.

 

Next update: Thr 5/9

Edited May 7, 2019 by Porthos

[Minnale101]

Looking at John wick 3. I would be utterly shocked if it doesn’t do over 50 million ow 

 

today was fantastic day for movie