The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mulder]

14 minutes ago, Mulder said:

KoTM-104

Just need to say am I overreacting or is this pretty insane that just on sheer "Oh hey tickets are up?" that this has already gotten 100+ tickets. 

[YM!]

https://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-box-office-avengers-endgame-avatar-record-20190507-story.html?outputType=amp

 

Pikachu tracking at $55M OW

[VanillaSkies]

12 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Just need to say am I overreacting or is this pretty insane that just on sheer "Oh hey tickets are up?" that this has already gotten 100+ tickets. 

I would say that it's a good indication that there is fairly strong demand for this. 

Once tickets are advertised for sale, pre-sales should increase quite a lot. So this many casual sales from people who have simply stumbled upon the showtimes that are up is pretty good...

[VanillaSkies]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

https://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-box-office-avengers-endgame-avatar-record-20190507-story.html?outputType=amp

 

Pikachu tracking at $55M OW

Pretty much right in line with most expectations, in the 50-60 million range. 

Will be interesting to see if it can leg it out like most family films. 

[Legion Again]

On 5/6/2019 at 9:08 PM, Thanos Legion said:

No longer waiting for Pika  

17 PT 5/6/19 (End of 2nd Mon)  

1	71.3%	Avengers: Endgame
2	6.1%	Detective Pikachu
3	3.9%	Long Shot
4	3.5%	The Intruder
5	2.9%	Spider-Man:Far From Home   

 

Pika all the way to 2nd. Roughly 1/12th of Endgame seems perfectly healthy to me 3 days before previews, expecting a close weekend race. In 5th place we swap one solo MCU for another, been a really crazy stretch of these updates now with 2 MCU movies in a row but it will end soon when FFH’s initial frenzy dies down.      

 

Uglydolls is the new release pushed out as the only kid skewing one. Don’t know if we’ll ever see it back, maybe tomorrow.

17 PT 5/7/19 (End of 2nd Tues)  

1	62.9%	Avengers: Endgame
2	6.3%	The Intruder
3	6.1%	Long Shot
4	6%	Detective Pikachu
5	2.7%	Uglydolls   

 

Discount Tuesday depressing presale % as always, no cause for alarm. Do wonder if we might see Hussle or Poms pop up by the end of tomorrow.

[YM!]

TheWrap says trackers are split, one says mid to high $50M, other says $70M+.

[HouseOfTheSun]

I feel like Pikachu is going to have a bit of an odd run. A larger than expected drop on second weekend and then great holds afterward. Like homecoming did. 

[Mulder]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

TheWrap says trackers are split, one says mid to high $50M, other says $70M+.

If the mid to high 50 one is the one that's using surveys I definitely buy the 70+ one more.

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, Mulder said:

If the mid to high 50 one is the one that's using surveys I definitely buy the 70+ one more.

All tracking is based on surveys. It’s how the surveys are interpreted that gives a range 

[dakus]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

TheWrap says trackers are split, one says mid to high $50M, other says $70M+.

So, once again, the consensus is ‘who the fuck knows’. 

[Mulder]

Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

All tracking is based on surveys. It’s how the surveys are interpreted that gives a range 

I thought pre-sales get factored into tracking? At least Shawn said BO.com uses pre-sales.

[cdsacken]

Depends on wom really. Presales aren't that good. It's not an animated film but it's similar. We shall see.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I feel like Pikachu is going to have a bit of an odd run. A larger than expected drop on second weekend and then great holds afterward. Like homecoming did. 

I could see that, and MDay even with Aladdin should give a nice third weekend.

[HouseOfTheSun]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I thought pre-sales get factored into tracking? At least Shawn said BO.com uses pre-sales.

That doesn’t mean tracking isn’t used. BOP uses survey information. In fact, they release survey info periodically. At this point all these guys are likely looking at the same type of info. I don’t know why there is such a range, but there has to be some conflicting data. Gonna be fun to watch I guess 

Edited May 8, 2019 by HouseOfTheSun

[YM!]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Depends on wom really. Presales aren't that good. It's not an animated film but it's similar. We shall see.

I never got Pikachu was going to be a presale monster even with the Pokémon fanbase as I would imagine the fanbase isn’t loud enough and this is the first Pokémon movie. If this were Red and Blue then yeah, you’d have a valid point but Pikachu seems more like a Disney remake than a lower tier family friendly CBM comparison wise.

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

TheWrap says trackers are split, one says mid to high $50M, other says $70M+.

So $50-$70M is the range which is pretty much the consensus on here 

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I never got Pikachu was going to be a presale monster even with the Pokémon fanbase as I would imagine the fanbase isn’t loud enough and this is the first Pokémon movie. If this were Red and Blue then yeah, you’d have a valid point but Pikachu seems more like a Disney remake than a lower tier family friendly CBM comparison wise.

I'm just trying to understand what people on here would consider good in terms of presales for this though. The movie isn't tracking to open to $100M+. For a movie that's tracking $50M-70M+, its presales are more than fine for that range. But even if you compare it to other CBM, its holding its own against some of them. But I don't expect it to have presales like a CBM simply because there was zero rush to buy tickets for the film when they went on sale. 

 

But as Ive said, I dont expect it to play like a full blown animated film either. Somewhere between the two genres. And *checks* presales. Its presales seem perfectly fine for that. *Shrugs*

Edited May 8, 2019 by Nova

[YM!]

As for me I’m guessing Lego Batman to $60M OW, before North Shore collapsed on me, I got 40 tickets at about 2:00 pm which when compared to HT3 there gives us $50M, thought I was going to wait until 7:00 pm for a bit more accuracy.

[Mulder]

I guess it's because of the trailer views, pre-presales predictions, and the size of the brand?

[YM!]

Just now, Nova said:

I'm just trying to understand what people on here would consider good in terms of presales for this though. The movie isn't tracking to open to $100M+. For a movie that's tracking $50M-70M+, its presales are more than fine for that range. 

The Tuesday number when I checked an hour ago was looked at 7000, which is lower than expected/hoped for imho.