The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

$150M budget is a bit higher than expected, but Pikachu should still break even if it falls on the low-end of tracking.

 

Clear 350 WW: Profitable, but  just.  Iffy on a sequel.

Clear 400 WW: Profitable, probably a sequel but in danger zone of whims of execs

Clear 500 WW: Sequel happening.

 

Sounds about right to me.  Anything over 450 is probably the go/might go line, but the higher above 450 it is, the more resources might be thrown at it.  I.e. not a cut back budget or lower priority.

 

===

 

Now, yes, clearing 400 would probably still merit a sequel, but it's chancy enough that I don't think it is guaranteed.

 

And, yes again, I know a sequel is supposedly been greenlit.  But things can be ungreenlit or put in development hell in a hurry for a disinterested studio.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Just need to say am I overreacting or is this pretty insane that just on sheer "Oh hey tickets are up?" that this has already gotten 100+ tickets. 

I know that FB2 and DP2 had some early unannounced sales, but I don't think anyone consistently tracked them.  Can't say I feel like checking the thread either.

 

Thanks for doing this for future reference in similar situations. 👍

[Perfundle]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Clear 350 WW: Profitable, but  just.  Iffy on a sequel.

Clear 400 WW: Profitable, probably a sequel but in danger zone of whims of execs

Clear 500 WW: Sequel happening.

 

Sounds about right to me.  Anything over 450 is probably the go/might go line, but the higher above 450 it is, the more resources might be thrown at it.  I.e. not a cut back budget or lower priority.

 

===

 

Now, yes, clearing 400 would probably still merit a sequel, but it's chancy enough that I don't think it is guaranteed.

 

And, yes again, I know a sequel is supposedly been greenlit.  But things can be ungreenlit or put in development hell in a hurry for a disinterested studio.

Is Batman Begins a good comparison? It had the same budget, and $374 million without China is probably equivalent to $400 million with China.

[Minnale101]

Detective pikachu started 30 days before release for pre sales 

 

shazam 25 days 

 

so yeah warner Bros prob will do godzilla soon 

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

Is Batman Begins a good comparison? It had the same budget, and $374 million without China is probably equivalent to $400 million with China.

375 in 2005 really isn't the same as 400 in 2019, even with China in play.  I see what you mean in terms of budget, but the "WOW" factor with BB was the 4.25x legs (impressive even then), the $200m gross in the DOM market (which meant more profits to the studios) and then the killing it made in the home media market.

 

It was also seen as a rebirth of the franchise coming off the toxic Batman and Robin.  They looked at the WOM and the home video sales and saw an obvious amount of untapped potential.

 

An equivalent nowadays would probably be Pika Pika doing something like 225/400, which probably isn't very likely of a spilt but might happen.  Unfortunately the home video market isn't anywhere near where it was in 2005/6.  Plus Batman was already a proven success in the domestic film market, while Pikachu isn't.

 

So, it'd be one of those situations where a studio could talk themselves into it.  But the gross of BB only tells part of the story, IMO.

Edited May 8, 2019 by Porthos

[Minnale101]

400 million would extremely low. Especially when Dumbo did 339 million and did next to nothing in China 

 

detective pikachu is projected to do 23 million in japan

 

dumbo is 8.2 million.  

 

Already made up 14.8 million 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Minnale101

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

400 million would extremely low. Especially when Dumbo did 330 million and did next to nothing in China 

 

detective pikachu is projected to do 23 million in japan

 

dumbo is 8.2 million.  

 

Already made up 14.8 million 

I did say such a split it was unlikely.   400m WW probably does mean a sub-200m DOM number, which isn't ideal for Pika Pika IMO.

[Cappoedameron]

This thread goes back and forth on Pikachu it's exhausting, lol. Just like tracking goes back and forth.

Edited May 8, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Perfundle]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

375 in 2005 really isn't the same as 400 in 2019, even with China in play.  I see what you mean in terms of budget, but the "WOW" factor with BB was the 4.25x legs (impressive even then), the $200m gross in the DOM market (which meant more profits to the studios) and then the killing it made in the home media market.

 

It was also seen as a rebirth of the franchise coming off the toxic Batman and Robin.  They looked at the WOM and the home video sales and saw an obvious amount of untapped potential.

 

An equivalent nowadays would probably be Pika Pika doing 225/400, which probably isn't very likely of a spilt but might happen.  Unfortunately the home video market isn't anywhere near where it was in 2005/6.  Plus Batman was already a proven success in the domestic film market, while Pikachu isn't.

 

So, it'd be one of those situations where a studio could talk themselves into it.  But the gross of BB only tells part of the story, IMO.

Sure, the revenue would be higher, but $150 million in 2005 isn't the same as $150 million in 2019 either. I meant 400 with China in 2005 if China was as big as it was now. But yeah, the WOM and home video sales are certainly key factors that I didn't know about.

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

This thread goes back and forth on Pikachu it's exhausting, lol. Just like tracking goes back and forth.

45 more hours until it’s all over though. Can’t wait 

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

This thread goes back and forth on Pikachu it's exhausting, lol. Just like tracking goes back and forth.

You have 598 reactions and I'm willing to bet more than half of them are from me Winona Rydering you 

[Porthos]

@Nova  Given your reaction to one of my posts, are you thinking that even if Pika Pika did around 400m WW, it'd probably still clear 200m DOM?

 

I was under the impression this would have a higher INT to DOM split, but maybe I have my presumptions wrong somewhere.

 

I was mostly just thinking aloud that a sub-200m DOM gross for Pikachu probably isn't ideal unless it did better internationally. 

 

But I haven't been following the expectations on Pika Pika on DOM:INT very closely, so I will readily admit to being wrong here.

Edited May 8, 2019 by Porthos

[Cappoedameron]

 

 

4 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

45 more hours until it’s all over though. Can’t wait 

Till we prove everyone right and we can bring up the shock Pikachu meme.

 

BTW all previews at that awful theatre in my area are sold out and the other two that just got their times up today are all half full.

 

I have not purchased my ttickets yet cause it's looking like this will be walk up friendly. I'll just order my tickets on the way to the film.

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@Nova  Given your reaction to one of my posts, are you thinking that even if Pika Pika did around 400m WW, it'd probably still clear 200m DOM?

 

I was under the impression this would have a higher INT to DOM split, but maybe I have my presumptions wrong somewhere.

 

I was mostly just thinking aloud that a sub-200m DOM gross for Pikachu probably isn't ideal unless it did better internationally. 

 

But I haven't been following the expectations on Pika Pika on DOM:INT very closely, so I will readily admit to being wrong here.

He does that face for every post. Don’t take it personally hahaha 

[Poseidon]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

It was mainly due to the first trailer, before the first trailer the majority was thinking Angry Birds numbers as well as us trusting test screenings and then increased our predictions by a lot sort of like how we did Venom. I think in hindsight, the warning sign was the drop off from the first trailer to the second trailer and no one was expecting Endgame to be that big.

Didn't the second Trailer for Jumanji drop from 30m to 2m?  Did work out quite well for that one in the end.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

@Nova  Given your reaction to one of my posts, are you thinking that even if Pika Pika did around 400m WW, it'd probably still clear 200m DOM?

 

I was under the impression this would have a higher INT to DOM split, but maybe I have my presumptions wrong somewhere.

 

I was mostly just thinking aloud that a sub-200m DOM gross for Pikachu probably isn't ideal unless it did a better internationally. 

 

But I haven't been following the expectations on Pika Pika on DOM:INT very closely, so I will readily admit to being wrong here.

I think Pikachu could see a higher INT vs DOM split tbh especially if it ends up opening on the lower end of projections domestically. But I’m also not really following the film in other international markets besides China and Japan tbh So I’m not really sure what the outlook is for it in that regard. 

 

But I could see $185M domestic and say $350-400M OS. These aren’t exacts but more so how I see the ratio playing out. 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

He does that face for every post. Don’t take it personally hahaha 

I'm aware of @Nova's nervous little tic right now.  

 

...

 

Actually I think a lot of people on this thread and the Pika thread are for that matter.

 

But I was curious if he had some thoughts on the INT:DOM split as I'm very sure he's more knowledgeable about it than I am.

 

EDIT::: Thanks for the thoughts, Nova.  Appreciated. 👍

Edited May 8, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

I think Pikachu could see a higher INT vs DOM split tbh especially if it ends up opening on the lower end of projections domestically. But I’m also not really following the film in other international markets besides China and Japan tbh So I’m not really sure what the outlook is for it in that regard. 

 

But I could see $185M domestic and say $350-400M OS. These aren’t exacts but more so how I see the ratio playing out. 

 @Porthos Also to clarify, I'm not following it in other OS markets simply because there haven't been updates for it  But so far (from 2-3 markets lol) it seems like its going to play better OS relative to its domestic performance. But I'd have to wait and see how other markets play out on OD and stuff. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Nova

[Mulder]

49 minutes ago, Mulder said:

KoTM-119

KoTM-130

[Cap]

Pika Pika (Only)

Thursday Previews

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic (Three Theater Chain)

Movie	5/1	5/3	5/6	5/7	Total	Percentage	+ Sales
Pika Pika	11	22	34	49	994	4.93%	15

 

Lincoln Square 13

 

	5/1	5/3	5/6	5/7	Total	Percentage	+Seats
	Pika Pika - Thursday, May 9, 2019
STD 4:00PM	18	25	31	27	218	1.24%	-4
STD 6:45PM	80	89	106	116	218	53.21%	+10
DOLBY 7:15PM	N/A	171	246	252	297	84.85%	+6
3D 9:45PM	57	74	82	91	218	41.74%	+9
TOTAL	155	359	465	486	951	51.10%	+21

 

I double checked, and yes, 4PM lost four seats.  💁‍♀️