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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Porthos said:

It is a little muted.  But it might just be running at a percentage of JW2 as well.  The idea that it might be headed for a 70m OW sounds logical.  

 

I will say it ain't exploding.  But that's also why I roped in the Venom and AM2 comp to show what they did 2 days from release.  Thinking the target number for Pika  is around 375 to 400 adj tickets sold tomorrow.   If it doesn't hit that, I might have to reassess or look at the pattern a bit more closely to see what is going on. 

That was the 'adj' target I set last night.

 

This is what Pika Pika hit locally:

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

T-1 day:

JW2           768 tickets sold [0 sellouts/147 showings |  9523/13715 seats left  | 30.57% sold]

AM2          347 tickets sold [0 sellouts/112 showings |  8258/10896 seats left  | 24.21% sold]

Pika (JW)    423 tickets sold [0 sellouts/112 showings |  6429/8397 seats left    | 23.44% sold]

---

Venom      498 tickets sold [0 sellouts/122 showings | 10414/13170 seats left | 20.93% sold]

FB2           492 tickets sold [0 sellouts/131 showings | 11940/15717 seats left | 24.03% sold] 

Pika (FBj)   428 tickets sold [0 sellouts/112 showings |  7364/9394 seats left    | 21.61% sold]

Pika (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Pika (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald and Venom

So it hit the target, and did a bit better.  Now that was something of a bare minimum before I decided I was forced to reassess, but it hit it, and somewhat comfortably.

 

It is roughly 55% of JW2 and roughly 85% or so of both Venom and FB2 for the same day.  Pretty good on the latter two,  decent enough on the former.  The AM2 comparison might be the best for Pika Pika as it did around 20% better than it. 

 

On the other hand, AM2 exploded on its day of release, and then there's the bugaboo about PLF/matinee.  Not to mention I'll be stopping tracking sooner than any of the above movies.

 

---

 

Upshot, Pika Pika is expanding at a clip it needs to, IMO. What it hits though, tomorrow, I can't say.

 

(also, because I care: 

 

Solo :     377
Pika adj: 423

 

About 12% better for Pika Pika.  Whether one considers that a good sign or not, I'll leave up to others.

 

Edited by Porthos
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Posted (edited)

-no idea how I bypassed flood control-

Edited by Porthos
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Posted (edited)

-board went crazy-

Edited by Porthos
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Posted (edited)

^ Pika is clearly not a big pre-seller at my theatre. There are still only the two showtimes on Thursday evening. Notably, Sunday has only seen 30 seats sold in all. Not concerned though. Endgame is front and centre right now but this will be a lot of people's choice when they walk up to the theatre this weekend. As big as EG is going to be, kids and families are going to want something new and fun.

 

Wow, I put the arrow in this post thinking it would be the one to follow my last post. 10 posts later....

Edited by JB33
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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I dunno. Maybe I or Nova miscalculated.

Quote

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-08 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	47.934%	34979	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	18.870%	13770	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
3	05.070%	3700	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
4	03.334%	2433	Long Shot
5	02.646%	1931	The Hustle (2019)
6	02.143%	1564	Maharshi
7	02.127%	1552	The Intruder (2019)
8	02.086%	1522	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
9	01.951%	1424	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
10	01.236%	902	Captain Marvel (2019)
11	01.195%	872	Poms

Here it is for the cut-off time. There is definitely a misalignment between the two trackers. Its off for every opener this week. I went through and recalculated for Poms to test it and your math added up, so it wasn't error from you. That's strange. I wonder if its a recent thing from all the Pulse issues?

 

 

 

 

Edited by dakus
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Moderation 

 

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The standard we don’t report is the standard we accept. 

 

Report Count:1

 

Regards

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2 minutes ago, dakus said:

Here it is for the cut-off time. There is definitely a misalignment between the two trackers. Its off for every opener this week. I went through and recalculated for Poms to test it and your math added up, so it wasn't error from you. That's strange. I wonder if its a recent thing from all the Pulse issues?

 

 

 

 

Or potentially it has been off for ages and just nobody noticed?

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, dakus said:

Here it is for the cut-off time. There is definitely a misalignment between the two trackers. Its off for every opener this week. I went through and recalculated for Poms to test it and your math added up, so it wasn't error from you. That's strange. I wonder if its a recent thing from all the Pulse issues?

 

 

 

 

IDK what any of this means.

Edited by Cappoedameron

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5 minutes ago, dakus said:

Here it is for the cut-off time. There is definitely a misalignment between the two trackers. Its off for every opener this week. I went through and recalculated for Poms to test it and your math added up, so it wasn't error from you. That's strange. I wonder if its a recent thing from all the Pulse issues?

 

 

 

 

tbh i never pay attention to that 24 hr tracker

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, dakus said:

Or potentially it has been off for ages and just nobody noticed?

Not sure. I just assumed it was after 2AM that you calculated cause back on Monday, Eric responded to @Minnale101 about waiting one more hour to calculate Monday’s numbers to include the rolling tracker and he posted that after 1AM but I’m not in charge of the tracker so if that’s how he’s been doing it, then the data is all matched up regardless 

Edited by Nova
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1 minute ago, Cappoedameron said:

Wow Pika's catching up to Endgame, IDK if that's a good sign or not.

Delete this. 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

That was the 'adj' target I set last night.

 

This is what Pika Pika hit locally:

So it hit the target, and did a bit better.  Now that was something of a bare minimum before I decided I was forced to reassess, but it hit it, and somewhat comfortably.

 

It is roughly 55% of JW2 and roughly 85% or so of both Venom and FB2 for the same day.  Pretty good on the latter two,  decent enough on the former.  The AM2 comparison might be the best for Pika Pika as it did around 20% better than it. 

 

On the other hand, AM2 exploded on its day of release, and then there's the bugaboo about PLF/matinee.  Not to mention I'll be stopping tracking sooner than any of the above movies.

 

---

 

Upshot, Pika Pika is expanding at a clip it needs to, IMO. What it hits though, tomorrow, I can't say.

 

(also, because I care: 

 

Solo :     377
Pika adj: 423

 

About 12% better for Pika Pika.  Whether one considers that a good sign or not, I'll leave up to others.

 

Pardon me if I'm understanding this incorrectly. You're saying Pika is doing better at pre sales then a film that opened at 87 million and it's on par with films that opened at the 75m range as well as the 80m range? If I'm wrong, I apologize, it is late where I'm at.

Edited by Cappoedameron

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@CoolEric258's tracking has always been a little different that whatever gets put in over at akvalley.  Whether it's because of when time cut off are different or CoolEric258 is being more meticulous on his hour to hour track, I don't know.  But it came up a lot during the CM tracking. 

 

If one compares his sheet with the one akvalley has here (I think that's the right one), there is a minor discrepancy.  But as long as CoolEric258 is consistent with his methodology, and differences between his count and akvalley's is no big deal.

 

Just don't cross the streams and you'll be fine.

 

(or if you do, don't expect precision ;))

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Just now, Porthos said:

@CoolEric258's tracking has always been a little different that whatever gets put in over at akvalley.  Whether it's because of when time cut off are different or CoolEric258 is being more meticulous on his hour to hour track, I don't know.  But it came up a lot during the CM tracking. 

 

If one compares his sheet with the one akvalley has here (I think that's the right one), there is a minor discrepancy.  But as long as CoolEric258 is consistent with his methodology, and differences between his count and akvalley's is no big deal.

 

Just don't cross the streams and you'll be fine.

 

(or if you do, don't expect precision ;))

akvalley re-updates itself. I ran into this when counting KoTM's pre-presales on it. It's why the cumulative count I have for it is literally exactly 100 tickets more.

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5 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Pardon me if I'm understanding this incorrectly. You're saying Pika is doing better at pre sales then a film that opened at 87 million and it's on par with films that opened at the 75m range as well as the 80m range? If I'm wrong, I apologize, it is late where I'm at.

Those other films had already sold many more tickets previously.  I was simply looking at the 24 hour windows to see how they were doing at the same point in time to help get a feel how Pika Pika might do in its last day of pre-sales.

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4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

tbh i never pay attention to that 24 hr tracker

Well, in theory it shouldn't mess up the comps if the numbers were always taken from the hourly tracker. Unless the two scripts are completely independent and the issue only started recently on the hourly end. But considering that Pulse is already an imperfect system (capping) I don't think its really worth sweating over too much.

 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@CoolEric258's tracking has always been a little different that whatever gets put in over at akvalley.  Whether it's because of when time cut off are different or CoolEric258 is being more meticulous on his hour to hour track, I don't know.  But it came up a lot during the CM tracking. 

 

If one compares his sheet with the one akvalley has here (I think that's the right one), there is a minor discrepancy.  But as long as CoolEric258 is consistent with his methodology, and differences between his count and akvalley's is no big deal.

 

Just don't cross the streams and you'll be fine.

 

(or if you do, don't expect precision ;))

Ah thanks. I didn't see that until after I commented. That makes sense, I just wasn't sure if it was necessarily a recent thing or not. If its been around since the beginning, it shouldn't be an issue at all for historical numbers.

Edited by dakus
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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Those other films had already sold many more tickets previously.  I was simply looking at the 24 hour windows to see how they were doing at the same point in time to help get a feel how Pika Pika might do in its last day of pre-sales.

I see thank you and in your other post you quoted yourself saying this can provide whether or not Pika will have a 70M + OW, is that still on the table? It's pre-sales today, or is it still an undetermined range?

 

 

Quote

is a little muted.  But it might just be running at a percentage of JW2 as well.  The idea that it might be headed for a 70m OW sounds logical.  

 

Quote

I will say it ain't exploding.  But that's also why I roped in the Venom and AM2 comp to show what they did 2 days from release.  Thinking the target number for Pika  is around 375 to 400 adj tickets sold tomorrow.   If it doesn't hit that, I might have to reassess or look at the pattern a bit more closely to see what is going on. 

Thanks for the work you do though. :) Pikachu appreciates it.

 

tenor.gif?itemid=7225473

Edited by Cappoedameron
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Posted (edited)

Since Detective Pikachu is winding down, I thought I'd look at John Wick 3 as well. 30 days too late, sure, but it's the final week that's most important. I don't know why it has so few showings though, considering it's at higher capacity than Detective Pikachu at T-8 days.

 

Detective Pikachu San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 1 day to opening night

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats sold

Seats Left

Total Seats

Percent Sold

TOTALS

0

83

4989

8839

13828

36.08%

 

2 showings added

396 seats added

867 seats sold

 

Date       4/10 4/11 4/12 4/13
Tickets Sold       534 198 110 58
Date 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/20
Tickets Sold 28 45 59 63 36 33 28
Date 4/21 4/22 4/23 4/24 4/25 4/26 4/27
Tickets Sold 35 72 57 44 92 64 79
Date 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1 5/2 5/3 5/4
Tickets Sold 91 126 85 139 255 232 241
Date 5/5 5/6 5/7 5/8      
Tickets Sold 248 472 598 867      

 

Aladdin San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 15 days to opening night

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats sold

Seats Left

Total Seats

Percent Sold

TOTALS

0

62

1636

11360

12996

12.59%

 

85 seats sold

 

Date   4/30 4/31 5/1 5/2 5/3 5/4
Tickets Sold   677 208 149 131 87 56
Date 5/5 5/6 5/7 5/8      
Tickets Sold 65 107 71 85      

 

1.17x Detective Pikachu at T-15 days of presales [Detective Pikachu has 29 days of presales compared to Aladdin's 24]

 

John Wick 3 San Gabriel Valley (8 theaters), 8 days to opening night

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats sold

Seats Left

Total Seats

Percent Sold

TOTALS

0

32

1608

4995

6603

24.35%

 

Date 5/5 5/6 5/7 5/8      
Tickets Sold      
1608 (up to here) 
     

 

Edited by Perfundle
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

I see thank you and in your other post you quoted yourself saying this can provide whether or not Pika will have a 70M + OW, is that still on the table? It's pre-sales today, or is it still an undetermined range?

Other folks really feel comfortable projecting a OW out of pre-sales, but I don't. Doubly so in this case because of the internal multi discussion (not an invitation to start it up ;)).

 

I like projecting the preview number, and that's it.  What vexes me in this case is matinee showings and PLF.  Meaning my comp WILL need some sort of ad hoc adjustment, and that greatly annoys my sensibilities.

 

Put a gun to my head, I'm thinking 6m-ish in previews.  Could be a little higher.  Could be lower if I'm overestimating hugely somewhere. Def wouldn't surprise me. 

 

That is not remotely my final answer.  Hell, I might not have a final answer this time around.  But 6ish feels right at the moment.  Might want to look closer at the Fandango numbers before I solidify that thought.

 

Edited by Porthos
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