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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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@Porthos what time does your theater stop selling matinee tickets? My theater stops before 1PM and I’m wondering if this another case of my theater committing a highway robbery 

:kitschjob:

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Hey guys, sorry about my behaviour a while ago to whoever saw my last post. NIRD. I'll keep it in mind. 

 

I'm definitely ashamed to have made a fool of myself in the single thread I most respect on this Forum, in particular the least trollish thread on this Forum. 

That being said, Pikachu (have to use an old comp due to my 8 months away at Uni) is about on par with Ant Man 2 at my theatre for pre-sales. Considering the Marvel fanbase, I'd say that's pretty solid. 

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7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Other folks really feel comfortable projecting a OW out of pre-sales, but I don't. Doubly so in this case because of the internal multi discussion (not an invitation to start it up ;)).

 

I like projecting the preview number, and that's it.  What vexes me in this case is matinee showings and PLF.  Meaning my comp WILL need some sort of ad hoc adjustment, and that greatly annoys my sensibilities.

 

Put a gun to my head, I'm thinking 6m-ish in previews.  Could be a little higher.  Could be lower if I'm overestimating hugely somewhere. Def wouldn't surprise me. 

 

That is not remotely my final answer.  Hell, I might not have a final answer this time around.  But 6ish feels right at the moment.  Might want to look closer at the Fandango numbers before I solidify that thought.

 

$5.5-6.5M was around the range I was thinking tonight, so great minds etc. ;) Still, I wish I had a good sense of what the IM is going to be like; my hope is that it'll be in the 12-13 range because of that family appeal factor, though I can certainly see the fan rush factor knocking it below 10. 

 

Also re: John Wick 3. I've noticed the TV spots are really pushing IMAX ("EXPERIENCE IT IN IMAX" right at the end in big letters), so I think the lack of showtimes at the moment may be because Lionsgate is trying to get as many IMAX locations as they can from Disney, heh.

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7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Hey guys, sorry about my behaviour a while ago to whoever saw my last post. NIRD. I'll keep it in mind. 

 

I'm definitely ashamed to have made a fool of myself in the single thread I most respect on this Forum, in particular the least trollish thread on this Forum. 

That being said, Pikachu (have to use an old comp due to my 8 months away at Uni) is about on par with Ant Man 2 at my theatre for pre-sales. Considering the Marvel fanbase, I'd say that's pretty solid. 

It's np you're one of the best people on here so you slipping up's alright.

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3 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

$5.5-6.5M was around the range I was thinking tonight, so great minds etc. ;) Still, I wish I had a good sense of what the IM is going to be like; my hope is that it'll be in the 12-13 range because of that family appeal factor, though I can certainly see the fan rush factor knocking it below 10.

$5-7 million was my range (the only part of my Deadline parody in the DP thread that wasn't a joke), so looks like we're all in agreement with an average of $6 million. I based mine on Shazam's, which is still my best comparison, and that did $5.9 million.

 

3 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Also re: John Wick 3. I've noticed the TV spots are really pushing IMAX ("EXPERIENCE IT IN IMAX" right at the end in big letters), so I think the lack of showtimes at the moment may be because Lionsgate is trying to get as many IMAX locations as they can from Disney, heh.

Ooh, that's probably it. Of the 32 showings in my theaters, only two of them are IMAX right now.

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4 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

$5.5-6.5M was around the range I was thinking tonight, so great minds etc. ;) Still, I wish I had a good sense of what the IM is going to be like; my hope is that it'll be in the 12-13 range because of that family appeal factor, though I can certainly see the fan rush factor knocking it below 10.

I think people might be overestimating the fan rush for this movie. Detective Pikachu is one of the more casual Pokemon games and I know a lot of Pokemon fans who don't care for it because of that. I think the movie will have an 11x multiplier from its previews. If there is a large fan rush, I don't see it going below Shazam's 9x multiplier. 

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39 minutes ago, Nova said:

@Porthos what time does your theater stop selling matinee tickets? My theater stops before 1PM and I’m wondering if this another case of my theater committing a highway robbery 

:kitschjob:

It's variable depending on the theater locally but the cutoff is usually 5pm to 6pm on weekdays 'round these parts.  Weekends can either be 'first two shows' or 2pm to 4pm or so, again depending on the whims of the manager/corp office (here I'd have to check more thoroughly).

 

Openers though are a little more tricky.  Most of the Cinemarks aren't having any matinees at all for Pika Pika on Thursday (a couple are, though).  Other theaters are only having them for ones in the 4pm hour.  But a few others are doing it all the way up to but not including 6pm showings.

 

Either way, yes your local theater is pretty much robbing you blind, sorry. :)

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7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Either way, yes your local theater is pretty much robbing you blind, sorry. :)

Was expecting to get Winona'd there by a jealous/incredulous @Nova and was not disappointed. :lol:

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Posted (edited)

@Nova detective pikachu finished with.  13 177 tickets on pluses yesterday 

Edited by Minnale101
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Posted (edited)

8am movie tickets 

 

endgame 60.6%

 

Detective pikachu 

 

19%

Edited by Minnale101
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Race is looking even tighter for this weekend. I'll go with 67 each for now, not sure who wins.

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Detective pikachu pre sales are done tracking whenever previews start ?

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Detective pikachu pre sales are done tracking whenever previews start ?

No, I believe Thursday and previews are one for the tracker.

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

No, I believe Thursday and previews are one for the tracker.

Oh that’s good. Then today’s number should be huge 

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9 hours ago, JB33 said:

I'm really hoping both Endgame and Detective Pikachu finish the weekend with $70M+. That would be a good lookin' weekend!

Even if I doubt this possibility, this is the one I'm also hoping for - I love optimism on the boards:)...

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Posted (edited)

I found Ant-Man and the Wasp comps at my theater from Thursday afternoon :ph34r: 

 

Anyways Pikachu is currently running at:

130% of Shazam!

64% of both Ant-Man and the Wasp and Fallen Kingdom

30% of Deadpool 2 

 

130% of Shazam would be 7.8M 

64% of Ant-Man would be 6.4M 

64% of Fallen Kingdom would be 9.79M 

30% of Deadpool 2 would be 5.3M 

 

*Shazam and Fallen Kingdom were numbers I got Thursday morning so those are direct comps in terms of the time I checked. Ant-Man and the Wasp was a scan I did around noon (so I can check again to see if there are any increases for it) and Deadpool 2 were the final numbers for it (which I can also do another check then but I’d assume things will have given us a more clear picture by then) 

 

ETA: I found a Solo comp as well. 

Running at 52% of that which would give it 7.33M for previews 

 

Beats me where it’ll end up but i think these movies are a decent range (except for the obvious outlier) but Im still not confident in picking an actual number but I’d say $5-6M given the PLF screens those other films had 

Edited by Nova
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Hoping the PG rating gives it more walks than ant man and Jurassic fallen kingdom for premieres 

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7 minutes ago, Nova said:

I found Ant-Man and the Wasp comps at my theater from Thursday afternoon :ph34r: 

 

Anyways Pikachu is currently running at:

130% of Shazam!

64% of both Ant-Man and the Wasp and Fallen Kingdom

30% of Deadpool 2 

 

130% of Shazam would be 7.8M 

64% of Ant-Man would be 6.4M 

64% of Fallen Kingdom would be 9.79M 

30% of Deadpool 2 would be 5.3M 

 

*Shazam and Fallen Kingdom were numbers I got Thursday morning so those are direct comps in terms of the time I checked. Ant-Man and the Wasp was a scan I did around noon (so I can check again to see if there are any increases for it) and Deadpool 2 were the final numbers for it (which I can also do another check then but I’d assume things will have given us a more clear picture by then) 

So, based on your theatre, anything between 7-10m is likely purely dependent on how walkups fare?

 

That would actually be fantastic. Unless your theatre is unusually overperforming

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3 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Hoping the PG rating gives it more walks than ant man and Jurassic fallen kingdom for premieres 

Fallen Kingdom was very walk up friendly. Can’t see a big movie being anymore walk up friendly than it tbh 

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