Jump to content
grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

Recommended Posts

29 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

 

The system continues to roll

That's a bit lower than Shazam if I remember correctly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Minnale101 said:

Movie tickets 9am 

 

50.7% Endgame 

 

detective pikachu 30.3%

 

 

The Hustle is now at 99%, Detective Pikachu is now at 0.5% and Endgame is now at 0.5%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

The Hustle is now at 99%, Detective Pikachu is now at 0.5% and Endgame is now at 0.5%

That's a joke? 

Wow... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, LexJoker said:

Yes

I know it. 

Sarcasm... 

Edited by efialtes76

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Pikachu wanted to be above endgame this weekend it’d ha e to be outselling it already for opening day. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Minnale101 said:

Movie tickets 9am 

 

50.7% Endgame 

 

detective pikachu 30.3%

 

 

That is not good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

That is not good.

Just posting the numbers didn’t see it was good or not. Lol

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Porthos your previews number prediction was incredible. 

 

I'm in the 55-60m camp with that number. Thoughts?

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Because I know Fandango gon' fuck up somehow this weekend, might as well start this.

 

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

John Wick 3 1,076 1,134 1,355 1,178
  11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days
         
Aladdin 663 687 804 747
  18 days 17 days 16 days 15 days
         
Pets 2 Early   1,402 531 234
    18 days 17 days 16 days
         
Godzilla 16 180 426 376
  25 days 24 days 23 days 22 days
         
Secret Life of Pets 2 28 33 26 24
  32 days 31 days 30 days 29 days
         
Dark Phoenix 0 12 56 89
    31 days 30 days 29 days
         
Spider-Man FFH 13,647 3,356 1,669 1,073
  57 days 56 days 55 days 54 days

 

And here we go...

John Wick

Day 11-8

165% of Glass (66.6M)

170% of Alita (63.2M using the first 4 days of release)

 

Day 18-8 (minus days 14-12)

13% of Captain Marvel (19.6M)

 

Day 32-8 (minus days 21-19 and 14-12)

16% of Captain Marvel (24M)

 

Day 39-8 (minus days 21-19 and 14-12)

15% of Captain Marvel (22.5M)

 

With Glass and Alita, I finally have comps that actually work. Captain Marvel was fine, but was too big to be perfect. And using the first set of comps...yeah, this is doing wonderful.

 

Aladdin

Day 18-15

57% of Incredibles 2 (103.7M)

412% of Lego 2 (140.8M)

166% of Dragon 3 (91.4M)

126% of Dumbo (58.2M)

249% of Shazam (133.5M)

 

Day 23-15 (minus days 21-19)

63% of Incredibles 2 (116.1M)

550% of Lego 2 (187.6M)

178% of Dragon 3 (97.7M)

145% of Shazam (77.7M)

 

Day 25-15 (minus days 21-19)

74% of Incredibles 2 (135.9M)

211% of Dragon 3 (116.1M)

 

Cumulative (minus days 21-19)

35% of Incredibles 2 (64.5M)

155% of Dragon 3 (85.6M)

 

So generally speaking, almost all of the comps show great results for Aladdin, except Dumbo, which is arguably the best one to use. Hmm...next week might be the determining factor for this movie's potential.

 

Pets 2 Early Access

First 3 Days

16% of Dragon 3's Early Access shows (396K)

86% of Lego 2's Early Access shows (519K)

 

Day 18-16

25% of Dragon 3's Early Access shows (632.7K)

 

Yeesh. This is not looking too good. Even if you want to argue that this might not be presales-driven...you have to use Fandango in order to get tickets. But hey, maybe it'll pick up in the next few days as we get closer and closer.

 

Godzilla

Day 23-22

53% of Shazam (28.2M)

 

Day 25-22

16% of Captain Marvel (24M)

136% of Us (97M)

 

@Mulder Before you pronounce Doomsday, it's important to recognize that it's very early, and I don't have the best comps right now. John Wick seems like a perfect candidate, but there's no numbers to use yet, and I'm sure there are plenty of great comps available in 2018, but I don't have them at the moment. Either way, this seems like a decent enough start, though it will really depend on the boost it gets in the future.

 

Pets

Day 32-29

3% of Incredibles 2 (6.2M)

27% of Dragon 3 (14.9M)

 

Finally, I have days I can work with. And...shockingly, I still can't work with these movies. The big issue is that both Incredibles and Dragon are likely way more pre-sales driven than something like Pets. We are getting Grinch, Hotel, and Lego comps shortly, all of which started pretty low in pre-sales, so at least the movie's got that going for it.

 

Dark Phoenix

Day 31-29

3% of Captain Marvel (5.1M)

83% of Us (59.1M)

 

Like with Godzilla, it's very early and I don't have any good comps right now. So...shrug emoji.

 

Far From Home

First 4 Days

100.1% of Captain Marvel (153.5M)

 

Tricky to look at, since this is opening on a Tuesday, but that seems like a good 6-day to reach for.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-68 (-1), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-103 (+3), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final Week

 

Jesus christ Aladdin's situation gets worse every day. It literally lost a seat today. Wick's increase is small but I'm not too worried about it. In total today John Wick sold 3 tickets and Aladdin lost a ticket.

 

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-26, 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-68, 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-103, 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final Week

 

KoTM's ticket sales are already higher then Aladdin's first day in only the first half hour at my theater.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Because I know Fandango gon' fuck up somehow this weekend, might as well start this.

 

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

John Wick 3 1,076 1,134 1,355 1,178
  11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days
         
Aladdin 663 687 804 747
  18 days 17 days 16 days 15 days
         
Pets 2 Early   1,402 531 234
    18 days 17 days 16 days
         
Godzilla 16 180 426 376
  25 days 24 days 23 days 22 days
         
Secret Life of Pets 2 28 33 26 24
  32 days 31 days 30 days 29 days
         
Dark Phoenix 0 12 56 89
    31 days 30 days 29 days
         
Spider-Man FFH 13,647 3,356 1,669 1,073
  57 days 56 days 55 days 54 days

 

And here we go...

John Wick

Day 11-8

165% of Glass (66.6M)

170% of Alita (63.2M using the first 4 days of release)

 

Day 18-8 (minus days 14-12)

13% of Captain Marvel (19.6M)

 

Day 32-8 (minus days 21-19 and 14-12)

16% of Captain Marvel (24M)

 

Day 39-8 (minus days 21-19 and 14-12)

15% of Captain Marvel (22.5M)

 

With Glass and Alita, I finally have comps that actually work. Captain Marvel was fine, but was too big to be perfect. And using the first set of comps...yeah, this is doing wonderful.

 

Aladdin

Day 18-15

57% of Incredibles 2 (103.7M)

412% of Lego 2 (140.8M)

166% of Dragon 3 (91.4M)

126% of Dumbo (58.2M)

249% of Shazam (133.5M)

 

Day 23-15 (minus days 21-19)

63% of Incredibles 2 (116.1M)

550% of Lego 2 (187.6M)

178% of Dragon 3 (97.7M)

145% of Shazam (77.7M)

 

Day 25-15 (minus days 21-19)

74% of Incredibles 2 (135.9M)

211% of Dragon 3 (116.1M)

 

Cumulative (minus days 21-19)

35% of Incredibles 2 (64.5M)

155% of Dragon 3 (85.6M)

 

So generally speaking, almost all of the comps show great results for Aladdin, except Dumbo, which is arguably the best one to use. Hmm...next week might be the determining factor for this movie's potential.

 

Pets 2 Early Access

First 3 Days

16% of Dragon 3's Early Access shows (396K)

86% of Lego 2's Early Access shows (519K)

 

Day 18-16

25% of Dragon 3's Early Access shows (632.7K)

 

Yeesh. This is not looking too good. Even if you want to argue that this might not be presales-driven...you have to use Fandango in order to get tickets. But hey, maybe it'll pick up in the next few days as we get closer and closer.

 

Godzilla

Day 23-22

53% of Shazam (28.2M)

 

Day 25-22

16% of Captain Marvel (24M)

136% of Us (97M)

 

@Mulder Before you pronounce Doomsday, it's important to recognize that it's very early, and I don't have the best comps right now. John Wick seems like a perfect candidate, but there's no numbers to use yet, and I'm sure there are plenty of great comps available in 2018, but I don't have them at the moment. Either way, this seems like a decent enough start, though it will really depend on the boost it gets in the future.

 

Pets

Day 32-29

3% of Incredibles 2 (6.2M)

27% of Dragon 3 (14.9M)

 

Finally, I have days I can work with. And...shockingly, I still can't work with these movies. The big issue is that both Incredibles and Dragon are likely way more pre-sales driven than something like Pets. We are getting Grinch, Hotel, and Lego comps shortly, all of which started pretty low in pre-sales, so at least the movie's got that going for it.

 

Dark Phoenix

Day 31-29

3% of Captain Marvel (5.1M)

83% of Us (59.1M)

 

Like with Godzilla, it's very early and I don't have any good comps right now. So...shrug emoji.

 

Far From Home

First 4 Days

100.1% of Captain Marvel (153.5M)

 

Tricky to look at, since this is opening on a Tuesday, but that seems like a good 6-day to reach for.

Those weren't official presales so you can't compare them to announced presales like we're getting today.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

 

The system continues to roll

 

2 hours ago, Deja23 said:

@Porthos with accurate estimates as usual. 

Now I know why my notifications were lit up like a Xmas tree this morning. :lol:

 

I admit I got nervous last night seeing @DAJK's reports come in, but decided to just let the chips fall where they may.

 

Pleasantly surprised at seeing 5.7.  Makes me wish I put a little more conviction behind it now.  Oh well, good to be humble, I guess. :)

 

54 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

@Porthos your previews number prediction was incredible. 

 

I'm in the 55-60m camp with that number. Thoughts?

 

I don't know why, but I'm kinda feeling 12x.  Gut level read on that though.  That's certainly reasonable for 10x.  Doubt it'll be much higher than 70m. I'd be very surprised at a low 50. So sure, could see it.

 

But internal multi talk is something I'm really poor at so just take it as a surface level read and not much more.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the tags on KotM, by the way.  Daily reports start up tonight along side Aladdin. 👍

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Thanks for the tags on KotM, by the way.  Daily reports start up tonight along side Aladdin. 👍

Excited to see how it's doing. So far at my theater it's easily the best Day 1 I've seen since Endgame. Already over Aladdin and the day's still early.

 

EDIT: Oh and FFH @Best Day 1 

Edited by Mulder
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Minnale101 said:

Just posting the numbers didn’t see it was good or not. Lol

 

 

I know I'm saying it's not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   1 member

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.