The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

On 5/7/2019 at 2:25 PM, TwoMisfits said:

So, 1st local - Cinemark - is set...and the tightness of the market is undeniable - and it's gonna harm Pika's chances this weekend.  Right now, Pika ONLY got 1.5 screens.  We'll see where my 2nd local puts it, but by my personal "benchmark" of 1 screen at my local = max $50M possible, this is gonna limit Pika to $75M or less for OW...now, if my other local loads up, I'll change my ceiling, but for now, it's not good for Pika (and worse, b/c the bonus 1/2 screen is all matinees)...but here's the bloodbath...I mean, set...

 

PS - Both of my locals do make last second cuts and adds, so that's gotta be Pika's hope this weekend:)...

 

NEW

Pika (1.5 screens - 9 showings - 1 3d, 8 2d - largest screen for full, smallest screen for 1/2 which also isn't good - this this is already sold out on the largest screen for the Sat mornings, and there's nowhere really to go)

The Hustle - (1 screen - 6 showings - above average type) - I'd have swapped Pika's 1/2 matinee screen with Hustle's matinee larger screen, but what do I know

Maharashi (1 screen - 4 showings - smallest size)

 

NO POMS - too tight to fit 2 Mother's Day movies, so The Hustle it is...

 

Returning

Long Shot (1 - 5 showings)

The Intruder (1 - 5 showings)

Endgame (3.5 - 14 showings) - it lost 1.5 screens, but it's tight

UglyDolls (.8 - 4 showings) - it could not hold the full screen and loses the 9pm show

Curse of LL (.2 - 1 showing) - there's the night show:)

Capt Marvel (.5 - 2 showings) - it shares the split screen with Endgame

 

Now, if you count, that's 10.5 screens - I'm assuming we'll see some more foreign film bookings (or even Poms, if they change their mind), but Pika could still pull out a few extra showings, too...for it's sake, I hope it does, so c'mon Pika, sell out those other tiny showings on Sat::)...

 

Gone

Shazam, past foreign film

 

EDIT: Foreign film it is - Student of the Year 2 added on a full screen, so no Poms, and only 1/2 screen available to Pika if it goes wild (without cutting from other movies)...

VERY early set for 1st local - Cinemark...I'm surprised, but then again, the major college in town graduates this Friday, so when you see the set, you're probably not gonna be surprised:).  In GOOD news, John Wick pulls TWO+ full screens (although in a weird split)...now the rest of the set, you'll just have to read:)...but it's a bloodbath for the bad holds...

 

NEW

JW3 - (2.25 - 5 showings on biggest screen, 6 showings on smallest screens split with 2 movies) - I'm betting they were originally planning this for 1 screen, b/c the smallest screen showings are all over the place, like they are finding what they can give

A Dog's Journey (1 - 6 showings - above average screen) - this will probably be a mistake

4 foreign films (1.25 - 6 showings - smallest screen)

 

RETURNING

Pika - (2 - now 12 showings - 1 3d, 11 2d - dropped to above average screen and smallest screen, but a win for this one with the extra showings giving this film the same capacity as last week)

Endgame (2.5 - 10 showings) - it lost 1 screen - keeps 1 largest size screen and 1.5 smallest size screen

The Hustle (1 - 5 showings) - the winning holdover of the "bad" movies b/c it kept a screen

Maharashi (.75 - 3 showings) - lost .25 screen

The Intruder (.25 - 1 showing) - lost .75 screen - the "winning" May 3rd movie

 

GONE

Everything else - May 3rd movies wiped out!  Long Shot - Gone!  UglyDolls - Gone!  (The Intruder the sole movie standing with a single showing, so gone next week:)!  Curse of LL and Capt Marvel (finally gone - what a stretch, though)...

 

Now, note, 1 screen is still open.  It's obvious the theater is probably trying to book another foreign film b/c they tend to thrive on them, and it's been very tight for them since Endgame opened (see this week, booking 4 new ones, but each only getting 1-2 showings).  I think they may be booking 1 more or holding the screen for performance...I'll update this when I know...

Edited May 14, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

A wretchedly formatted copy-n-paste is all you're getting out me, Deep Wang. 

I was only kidding(kinda). 

[Porthos]

@TwoMisfits  I didn't even know that Wick 3 was even getting 3D showings.  It doesn't have a single one anywhere locally near as I can tell.

[Hokkaido MUTO]

For any of you that still recall the presales for KSI and/or G14, how do the Godzilla KOTM presales compare to those? How about compared to the Meg and Rampage?

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@TwoMisfits  I didn't even know that Wick 3 was even getting 3D showings.  It doesn't have a single one anywhere locally near as I can tell.

Dooh - good catch - it's not 3d...it's "closed caption" - the extra wording threw me (they actually have the screen showings split, too, which is also weird - gonna fix my post (see you made me recheck...my eyes, they get old:)...

 

PS - If that doesn't work, can I blame the late night and being up before 6am today?:)...

Edited May 14, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Biggestgeekever]

So glad to see we can access the old tracking thread now!  And thanks to @Thanos Legion for keeping up with the MT updates, which are especially important now that akvalley link has apparently shit the bed forever in that department.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Dooh - good catch - it's not 3d...it's "closed caption" - the extra wording threw me (they actually have the screen showings split, too, which is also weird - gonna fix my post (see you made me recheck...my eyes, they get old:)...

 

PS - If that doesn't work, can I blame the late night and being up before 6am today?:)...

Been there, done that (I get tired eyes all the time as well ).  No need to blame anything.

 

Glad I was able to help catch it for you.

Edited May 14, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

10 minutes ago, Hokkaido MUTO said:

For any of you that still recall the presales for KSI and/or G14, how do the Godzilla KOTM presales compare to those? How about compared to the Meg and Rampage?

G-2014 was way too early for pre-sales to matter much like they do now, I literally never pre-ordered a ticket before Interstellar's IMAX show and that didn't have reserved seats, first reserved seating showtime I pre-ordered for was TFA back in 2015. As for KSI uuuh not sure. I remember it's pre-sales being weak from the way they were being discussed on here but that was a while ago.

[Mulder]

6 hours ago, Mulder said:

Midday count of today (Just for Dark Phoenix), only Thursdays-

Dark Phoenix-31 (+22), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

In comparison to KoTM and Aladdin's first days-

Godzilla: KoTM-56

Dark Phoenix-31 (Midday)

Aladdin-26

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-89 (+2), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-86 (+5), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-142 (+6), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final Week

Dark Phoenix-41 (+10), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Phoenix starts off...decent. It outsold Aladdin but didn't outsell KoTM nor even come within ten tickets range of it. In general today seemed kind of slow honestly besides for Phoenix. Aladdin's continuing along decently which it needed to but Wick and KoTM slowed down a lot today for some reason. In total today Dark Phoenix sold 41 tickets, KoTM sold 2, Wick sold 6, and Aladdin sold 5.

 

In comparison to KoTM and Aladdin's first days-

Godzilla: KoTM-56

Dark Phoenix-41

Aladdin-26

 

[Mulder]

23 hours ago, Mulder said:

FFH midnight showings-

FFH-58 (+2), 3 screenings (1 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 Regular)

 

Slowly but surely.

FFH midnight showings-

FFH-58, 3 screenings (1 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 Regular)

 

The usual here. 😄

[Hokkaido MUTO]

Just now, Mulder said:

G-2014 was way too early for pre-sales to matter much like they do now, I literally never pre-ordered a ticket before Interstellar's IMAX show and that didn't have reserved seats, first reserved seating showtime I pre-ordered for was TFA back in 2015. As for KSI uuuh not sure. I remember it's pre-sales being weak from the way they were being discussed on here but that was a while ago.

Ah, alright. How about Meg and Rampage?

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	9052	9997	9.45%

 

Total Showings Removed Today:          2 (both at non-reserved seating showings)

Total Seats Removed Today:             n/a

Total Seats Sold Today:                      44

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu.  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.4340x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 10 days before release. 

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

T-10:

Pika:    41  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/64 showings   |  6693/7352 seats left   |  8.96% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.5216x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 10 days before release.

.4699x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 10 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales and FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

T-10 days:

JW2                 60 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |   8447/10113 seats left | 16.47% sold]

Aladdin (JW)    36 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   7784/8653 seats left   | 10.04% sold]

FB2               105 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 11500/13377 seats left |  14.03% sold] 

Aladdin (FB)    36 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   8209/9091 seats left    |   9.70% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Porthos]

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	10687	11157	4.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today:           23

Total Seats Added Today:              3203

Total Seats Sold Today:                     98

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I might add some more comps in the coming days, but I haven't yet decided which ones, if any.

 

.4676x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after four day of pre-sales.           

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while KotM had 20.  Also some theaters had KotM tickets on sale for a few days before they were officially announced to the public for sale. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 4 of Pre-sales:

JW2               87 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |  9155/10113 seats left   |   9.47% sold]

KotM (JW)      96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/80 showings   |  9651/10099 seats left   |   4.44% sold]

KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Still hanging in there:

 

Wick 3:  1158 tickets sold four days away (+75)

Pika:      1247 tickets sold four days away (+110)

 

Later showtimes saw some growth as well.  Now really interested to see what happens when there is screen expansion over the next couple of days.

 

Partial expansion today.  Still pacing very well versus Pika.

 

Wick 3:  1347 tickets sold three days away (+189)

Pika:      1485 tickets sold three days away (+238)

 

Saw good sales all across the area.  PLFs entered the equation late in the day, so not sure how much they're helping.  Just strong sales across the board.

 

Interesting.  Nothing else.  Just... interesting. 

 

 

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	10687	11157	4.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today:           23

Total Seats Added Today:              3203

Total Seats Sold Today:                     98

I know the temptation is to think that the sales were from Cinema West finally checking in.

 

Surprisingly enough... No.  They only accounted for 13 of the 98 tickets sold.  Maybe even less than expected (not surprising since some checked in most of the way through the day). 

 

It was just a great day across the board for KotM locally.  Saw a definite uptick in sales at the other PLF theaters in town.  As I suspected, now that the "middle third" of the TrueIMAX theater has filled up, folks are starting to head to the other PLF showings.

 

Aside from that, just a strong day.  Since I didn't see any spike over at Fandango, mostly a random variation/spike, I think.  So not the start of a larger trend, either.  Not yet at least.

 

But that KotM is starting to hit the other PLFs in town is a good sign, no matter how it's sliced.  Whether it'll continue to have good days, I have no idea. But this was a good one locally, no if's and's or but's.   

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I know the temptation is to think that the sales were from Cinema West finally checking in.

 

Surprisingly enough... No.  They only accounted for 13 of the 98 tickets sold.  Maybe even less than expected (not surprising since some checked in most of the way through the day). 

 

It was just a great day across the board for KotM locally.  Saw a definite uptick in sales at the other PLF theaters in town.  As I suspected, now that the "middle third" of the TrueIMAX theater has filled up, folks are starting to head to the other PLF showings.

 

Aside from that, just a strong day.  Since I didn't see any spike over at Fandango, mostly a random variation/spike, I think.  So not the start of a larger trend, either.  Not yet at least.

 

But that KotM is starting to hit the other PLFs in town is a good sign, no matter how it's sliced.  Whether it'll continue to have good days, I have no idea. But this was a good one locally, no if's and's or but's.   

While KoTM slowed down today at my theater, it was after 3 days of very big sales plus the 2 seats sold were at a 3D showing which to me is a good sign.

[Cap]

John Wick 3 - Aladdin - Rocketman - Godzilla - Dark Phoenix

Thursday Previews

 

SOUTHERN MAINE CINEMAGIC (Three Theater Chain)
	5.1	5.3	5.6	5.8	5.10	5.13	Total	%	+ Sold	+ Seats
John Wick 3	2	4	11	26	46	60	758	7.91%	26	0
Aladdin	0	4	10	6	6	11	1336	0.82%	5	0
Rocketman	—	—	—	4	4	4	1160	0.34%	0	0
Godzilla	—	—	—	—	—	15	1316	1.14%	15	1316
Dark Phoenix	—	—	—	—	—	0	962	0%	0	962

• Big Shout Out of Godzilla for having more tickets sold than Aladdin.
• LOL @ Dark Phoenix.  Even with a Walk Up Theater like ours, just LOL.

 

 

LINCOLN SQUARE 13
	5/1	5/3	5/6	5/8	5/10	5/13	Total	%	+ Sold	+ Seats
John Wick 3	313	337	360	383	416	486	935	51.98%	70	0
Aladdin	277	325	363	388	412	481	1554	30.95%	69	0
Rocketman	--	--	--	122	133	150	594	25.25%	17	0
Godzilla	--	--	--	--	434	567	1440	39.37%	133	0
Dark Phoenix	--	--	--	--	--	479	960	49.90%	479	960

• John Wick is over 50%, still hyped.
• Dark Phoenix 6PM IMAX is the "Fan Event" and it's 70% sold out.  It's running about 40 tickets ahead of Godzilla, if you take out Godzilla's 4PM showing.  

 

Edited May 14, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Mulder]

Yeah the fan event sold really well here for Dark Phoenix, it's way more filled then any of it's other Thursday night showings. Idk what that means if anything.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Yeah the fan event sold really well here for Dark Phoenix, it's way more filled then any of it's other Thursday night showings. Idk what that means if anything.

Die hards are flocking to the fan events; not as many other people care as much yet.  That's how I'd view it.

 

=======

 

I took a cursory glance at Century Arden earlier today, saw tepid sales, and really didn't think much else.

 

*does some VERY quick checking around town*

 

 

...

 

Okay, that's unfair since it ain't a rigorous check.  But it certainly is confirming my gut thought to pass on this one.

 

But I did check out the two Fan Event showings locally just now.

 

Yeah. 

 

The one at Delta Shores (a theater at the cusp of hitting the 'A-tier', but maybe still at the top of the 'B-tier')?

 

3 tickets sold out of 207*.

* FWIW, the 7pm showing had 14 tickets sold.

 

The other one is at a different Regal theater, which is at the bottom of the 'B-Tier' or the top of the 'C-tier', IMO when it comes to sales.

 

Number of tickets sold?

 

ZERO. 

 

Yeah.  

 

====

 

Okay, both of the Fan Events had IMAX surcharges, and that is probably just enough of an impediment for folks to say, "Thanks, but no thanks."  Then again, that says something as well.

 

Almost tempted to do a quick count just to see how many raw tickets were sold region wide.

 

I doubt it would take me long. 

Edited May 14, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Die hards are flocking to the fan events; not as many other people care as much yet.  That's how I'd view it.

 

=======

 

I took a cursory glance at Century Arden earlier today, saw tepid sales, and really didn't think much else.

 

*does some VERY quick checking around town*

 

 

...

 

Okay, that's unfair since it ain't a rigorous check.  But it certainly is confirming my gut thought to pass on this one.

 

But I did check out the two Fan Event showings locally just now.

 

Yeah. 

 

The one at Delta Shores (a theater at the cusp of hitting the 'A-tier', but maybe still at the top of the 'B-tier')?

 

3 tickets sold out of 207*.

* FWIW, the 7pm showing had 14 tickets sold.

 

The other one is at a different Regal theater, which is at the bottom of the 'B-Tier' or the top of the 'C-tier', IMO when it comes to sales.

 

Number of tickets sold?

 

ZERO. 

 

Yeah.  

 

====

 

Okay, both of the Fan Events had IMAX surcharges, and that is probably just enough of an impediment for folks to say, "Thanks, but no thanks."  Then again, that says something as well.

 

Almost tempted to do a quick count just to see how many raw tickets were sold region wide.

 

I doubt it would take me long. 

Dark Phoenix has had the absolute worst rise from mid-day to late night I've seen for first days at my theater in my short time tracking, even aladdin doubled itself from mid-day, let alone what KoTM did. DP only sold about 10 more tickets, and most of the 41 tickets are concentrated in the fan screening.