The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cap]

John Wick 3

Final Thursday Preview Count 

*Stopped Tracking at 7PM EST*

 

John Wick 3
Final Count	Sold	Total	%
Cinemagic Chain	186	758	24.54%
Lincoln Square 13	675	1586	42.55%

 

Comps
Movie	Sold	Total
Pika Pika CC	158	994
Pika Pika LS13	613	1453

 

John Wick 3 is running 110% of Pika Pika at LS13.

Thursday Preview Estimate: 6.27M

 

John WIck 3 is running 117% of Pika Pika at CC.

Thursday Preview Estimate: 6.67M

 

 

 

Get them, John.  Get that Money.

[Porthos]

@keysersoze123 mentioned something so I might as well comment on this. 

 

While some of us are, rightfully IMO, pretty stoked at Wick 3's possible preview number, it still is in the range of 5 to 6 million, plus or minus.  Sure, let's say 7m if it explodes.

 

That means there will be A LOT OF EMPTY-ish SHOWINGS in a region as large as I am checking.  It's just simple math.

 

Now if I restricted my look to 7pm showings, the number of lowish showings drops precipitously.  But there's still less desirable theaters in the region and they're nearly always the ones to fill up last.

 

As of my last check, this was the spread locally:

 

Pct Sold    Showings
100%		0
90%		0
80%		4
70%		6
60%		5
50%		5
40%		6
30%		6
20%		7
10%		8
0%		22

I know the eye is drawn to the 30 showings at the bottom.  Well, yeah.  That's why it's not gonna hit double digits in previews.

 

But if I take out ALL of the showings that start after 9pm, I get this:

 

Prct Sold     Showings
100%		0
90%		0
80%		4
70%		6
60%		5
50%		5
40%		5
30%		3
20%		5
10%		3
0%		1

Now that looks a hell of a lot better, doesn't it? 

 

That might be the true difference between a film destined for double digit previews.  Not only does it do better at all theaters in town, it extends its reach later on into the night especially at the less trafficked theaters in a region.

Edited May 16, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

@Porthos

 

Locally, John Wick is sold out for the 7PM, but wide open for the 10PM.  

[Tinalera]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@keysersoze123 mentioned something so I might as well comment on this. 

 

While some of us are, rightfully IMO, pretty stoked at Wick 3's possible preview number, it still is in the range of 5 to 6 million, plus or minus.  Sure, let's say 7m if it explodes.

 

That means there will be A LOT OF EMPTY-ish SHOWINGS in a region as large as I am checking.  It's just simple math.

 

Now if I restricted my look to 7pm showings, the number of lowish showings drops precipitously.  But there's still less desirable theaters in the region and they're nearly always the ones to fill up last.

 

As of my last check, this was the spread locally:

 

Pct Sold    Showings
100%		0
90%		0
80%		4
70%		6
60%		5
50%		5
40%		6
30%		6
20%		7
10%		8
0%		22

I know the eye is drawn to the 30 showings at the bottom.  Well, yeah.  That's why it's not gonna hit double digits in previews.

 

But if I take out ALL of the showings that start after 9pm, I get this:

 

Prct Sold     Showings
100%		0
90%		0
80%		4
70%		6
60%		5
50%		5
40%		5
30%		3
20%		5
10%		3
0%		1

Now that looks a hell of a lot better, doesn't it? 

 

That might be the true difference between a film destined for double digit previews.  Not only does it do better at all theaters in town, it extends its reach later on into the night especially at the less trafficked theaters in a region.

Same for the theatres in my area. The early shows for thursday good turnout....late shows not so much

[WrathOfHan]

The first Dolby show for Wick borderline sold out at my theater, and my late show already has most center seats that aren't in the front few rows gone. The 2D shows are also close to sellouts, but IMAX is doing poorly.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Final Pika Comp Check:

 

Wick 3         2931 tickets sold at time stop of tracking for Pika (+437)

Pika             3096 tickets sold at stop of tracking                     (+447)

 

Thinking I will go ahead and do one last check around 5:30 PTish and rope in some comps for 6pm/7pm films.  But right now, 5.5m looks pretty likely, plus or minus (comping at 5.396 raw, boost a little for PLF, matinee, and 3D tradeoffs).

Final Unofficial Comp Check. Don't blame 'the system' if it's off.

 

(ALL OF THESE FILMS HAD 3D SO ADJUST DOWNWARDS)

 

Wick 3          3223 tickets sold at stop of tracking (+1148 for the day) (+292 since 4pm)

----

Wick 3 (adj)  2782 tickets sold at stop of tracking    (+976 for the day)

JW:FK            6228 tickets sold at stop of tracking (+2036 for the day) 

Solo:             5789 tickets sold at stop of tracking    (+911 for the day)

 

A JW:FK comp     gives 6.83m

A Solo  comp      gives 6.78m

A Venom comp* gives 6.53m

* Math not given due to different adj

 

There HAS to be an adj for 3D, however.  So let's say 5.75m to 6.25m.  

 

That's an ad-hoc adj though, as I didn't run any 3D comps to see how many tickets are affected by that.  Might be overcompensating here, though.  

 

On the other hand, kinda worried I might be over-estimating it.  But that number from @captainwondyful makes me think, perhaps not. 

 

Be interested to see what it is when all is said and done.

Edited May 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

We now interrupt your regularly scheduled programming for this breaking news update.  

 

13 PT 5/16/19 (Mid Thurs)  

1	29.1%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
2	28.1%	Avengers: Endgame
3	18.8%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	3%	The Hustle
5	2.8%	A Dog’s Journey   

I’ll try to do a midday update labeled by hour whenever there’s a new #1.

17 PT 5/16/19 (End of Thurs)  

 

1	34.4%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
2	26.5%	Avengers: Endgame
3	17.4%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	2.7%	The Hustle
5	2.6%	A Dog’s Journey

 

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Final Unofficial Comp Check. Don't blame 'the system' if it's off.

 

(ALL OF THESE FILMS HAD 3D SO ADJUST DOWNWARDS)

 

Wick 3          3223 tickets sold at stop of tracking (+1148 for the day) (+292 since 4pm)

----

Wick 3 (adj)  2782 tickets sold at stop of tracking    (+976 for the day)

JW:FK            6228 tickets sold at stop of tracking (+2036 for the day) 

Solo:             5789 tickets sold at stop of tracking    (+911 for the day)

 

A JW:FK comp     gives 6.83m

A Solo  comp      gives 6.78m

A Venom comp* gives 6.53m

* Math not given due to different adj

 

There HAS to be an adj for 3D, however.  So let's say 5.75m to 6.25m.  

 

That's an ad-hoc adj though, as I didn't run any 3D comps to see how many tickets are affected by that.  Might be overcompensating here, though.  

 

On the other hand, kinda worried I might be over-estimating it.  But that number from @captainwondyful makes me think, perhaps not. 

 

Be interested to see what it is when all is said and done.

Say it hits 6m dead on, do you think a 10x is still possible, or is the precedence on 7pm shows showing signs of front loading?

 

I assume with 6m, 50m is extremely likely and 60m is possible right?

[Jonwo]

The marketing for SLOP2 doesn't seem that great this time around. It'll still be profitable and will likely get a third film but a drop is very likely. 

 

 

[tonytr87]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

The marketing for SLOP2 doesn't seem that great this time around. It'll still be profitable and will likely get a third film but a drop is very likely. 

 

 

 

Too close to TS4 as well. 

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

The marketing for SLOP2 doesn't seem that great this time around.

Not sure my audiences have agreed with that. The ~5 maybe 6 times I've been in the theatre and SLOP2 trailer has played, it's always had a fairly distinct response of chatter and excitement from youths. 

 

In comparison Aladdin usually got a few murmurs and Toy Story 4 was a mixed bag (in Endgame for example there was big chatter, in kids movies not so much). I have a suspicion that TS4 is gonna skew older than people might think.

 

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not saying your statement is inherently wrong. Simply stating that anecdotes from my corner of the world don't support your statement. Whether my audiences are representative or outliers I don't know.

Edited May 17, 2019 by Stewart

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Say it hits 6m dead on, do you think a 10x is still possible, or is the precedence on 7pm shows showing signs of front loading?

 

I assume with 6m, 50m is extremely likely and 60m is possible right?

I actually think the relative penetration into 9pm and 10pm shows is a good sign that there is a large pool of folks interested in the movie. 

Either way, @TalismanRing ran a bunch of comps a couple of days ago showing that the likely range was from 9.3x to 11.2x or so. 

 

Now the higher it goes, the lower the multi probably is.  Especially if it's fans rushing out.  Logan (9.3x) might be an interesting  comp all things considered.  

 

With that in mind, if this hits 6m (still a huge if), with the reception it's getting, I kinda think 50m is the floor.  I suck at weekend multis though, so don't take that as gospel.

Edited May 17, 2019 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

So around 7mn Previews likely for JW3.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Stewart said:

Not sure my audiences have agreed with that. The ~5 maybe 6 times I've been in the theatre and SLOP2 trailer has played, it's always had a fairly distinct response of chatter and excitement from youths. 

 

In comparison Aladdin usually got a few murmurs and Toy Story 4 was a mixed bag (in Endgame for example there was big chatter, in kids movies not so much). I have a suspicion that TS4 is gonna skew older than people might think.

I don't think this really care... good marketing makes us want to watch the movie, i think the Pets 2 campaign despite being fun, doesn't really sell the movie.

 

Personally speaking, i found the trailers i saw pretty cool, it's just fun to watch, but at the same time it seems more like shorts than a movie, i liked when i see it but i don't really care enough to be excited for the movie itself.

 

Kids is probably liking the campaign, but to match the original it needs more than kids.

 

 

[JB33]

19 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

So around 7mn Previews likely for JW3.

Wow!

 

At this point I'm thinking $63M-$70M for the weekend, a 9x-10x multi, which is a bit more frontloaded than JW2's 13.8 multi so that's taken into account.

 

To think this is the one that's going to come the closest to killing my club!!

[Mulder]

Just now, JB33 said:

Wow!

 

At this point I'm thinking $63M-$70M for the weekend, a 9x-10x multi, which is a bit more frontloaded than JW2's 13.8 multi so that's taken into account.

 

To think this is the one that's going to come the closest to killing my club!!

I mean there is one more candidate. 

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I mean there is one more candidate. 

*facepalm*

 

Right. My bad.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

*facepalm*

 

Right. My bad.

Np, I don't think it'll hit it but it still is possible...and also there's Aladdin I guess....

[keysersoze123]

I am glad I got it right giving a range that Kal would be proud of. So it did come in my 5-8m range.

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

So around 7mn Previews likely for JW3.

So is this comment based on the info here/Fandango or is it a more of an Agardian statement...