The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[andrewgr]

Some highly-scientific additional data points to add into your models:

 

John Wick 3 is a masterpiece.  I don't think the bar it sets for this particular art form is likely to be surpassed anytime soon.  My theater was about 2/3 full for an 8:00PM showing, and he crowd definitely enjoyed it, there were more than a few highly audible reactions.

 

Also, of all the trailers, Brightburn got the largest amount of buzz.

[Nova]

@captainwondyful @Mulder @Porthos 

 

I took a quick look to see How Aladdin was doing cause I was interested in how it stacked up at my theater. While it was pacing with Pikachu most of the time, it’s now actually fallen behind Pikachu by 12% at my theater. I have no idea when this happened but it’s not increasing at my theater the way I’d want it to. Now Pikachu did overperform at my theater so that needs to be taken into account. But I’m honestly thinking $60M for the 3-day give or take some. 

 

I know the Fandago presales don’t line up with that exactly but remember Aladdin is opening on MDW so it skews things a bit in terms of sales. It has an extra day (Monday) and an extra night (Sunday night) that other releases don’t get to have to boost up it’s totals. 

 

I could be completely off by this and I’d be interested to see DW’s update if we get one to see if it aligns up. 

Edited May 18, 2019 by Nova

[Tentatek]

 

 

 

Pikachu literally has zero competition until Pets 2. 👀

John Wick didn’t do a dent to Pikachu’s screens (at least WW)

 

Aladdin is also kinda bombing WW.

 

 

Edited May 18, 2019 by Tentatek

[filmlover]

Rocketman has sold out all of its early previews for today around here. I imagine the numbers are gonna be really good.

[Tinalera]

Previews Silvercity london

 

Secret Life Of Pets 2

 

2 showings of recliner seating

 8 out of 222 seats sold

 

Godzilla King of the Monsters

 

3 IMAX showings

40 of 969 seats sold

 

Westmount

 

Pets2 no showings

 

Godzilla 

 

2 showings vip 

8 sold of 118 seats

[Tinalera]

John Wick 3

 

Saturday

 

Silvercity london

 

4 showings Avx/dbox 196 out of 540 sold

 

4 showings recliners 207 of 404 sold

 

[VanillaSkies]

6 hours ago, Nova said:

@captainwondyful @Mulder @Porthos 

 

I took a quick look to see How Aladdin was doing cause I was interested in how it stacked up at my theater. While it was pacing with Pikachu most of the time, it’s now actually fallen behind Pikachu by 12% at my theater. I have no idea when this happened but it’s not increasing at my theater the way I’d want it to. Now Pikachu did overperform at my theater so that needs to be taken into account. But I’m honestly thinking $60M for the 3-day give or take some. 

 

I know the Fandago presales don’t line up with that exactly but remember Aladdin is opening on MDW so it skews things a bit in terms of sales. It has an extra day (Monday) and an extra night (Sunday night) that other releases don’t get to have to boost up it’s totals. 

 

I could be completely off by this and I’d be interested to see DW’s update if we get one to see if it aligns up. 

 

I just don't see Aladdin being as presale heavy as Pika. 

We know now that Pika performed more like a fanboy film and less like a family film. It's opening weekend and second weekend decrease have pretty much confirmed this. 

Also, Fandango sales have been steady for Aladdin. 

There is a good chance it enters top 5 on Fandango on Monday, which is fairly strong. 
 

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

I just don't see Aladdin being as presale heavy as Pika. 

We know now that Pika performed more like a fanboy film and less like a family film. It's opening weekend and second weekend decrease have pretty much confirmed this. 

Also, Fandango sales have been steady for Aladdin. 

There is a good chance it enters top 5 on Fandango on Monday, which is fairly strong. 
 

The Disney remakes are presale heavy 

[VanillaSkies]

8 minutes ago, Mulder said:

The Disney remakes are presale heavy 

I said as presale heavy. 

Looking at some of the comps for DP, so people we're predicting 80 million + even the week leading up to release based on that week's presales and comping with some recent films. 

 

It came in even under reasonable predicts of 60 million which accounted for heavy presales. 

 

Yeah, Aladdin and other Disney live action are more presale heavy than regular family flicks. 

My argument still stands that I don't think it will be as presale heavy as DP. I was only speaking in comparison to that film.

 

We shall see. 

[Nova]

25 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

I just don't see Aladdin being as presale heavy as Pika. 

We know now that Pika performed more like a fanboy film and less like a family film. It's opening weekend and second weekend decrease have pretty much confirmed this. 

Also, Fandango sales have been steady for Aladdin. 

There is a good chance it enters top 5 on Fandango on Monday, which is fairly strong. 
 

As I said with the Fandango sales: it opens on MDW so you need to take into account that aspect of it. So it’s 3-day maybe depressed because it has a holiday Monday. 

 

Also Detective Pikachu did 9.56x. BATB did a 10.5 so it’s within that range. I’d imagine Aladdin would be around 10-11x. Don’t see why it would be more.  

Edited May 18, 2019 by Nova

[filmlover]

Aladdin has actually enjoyed a nice spike in ticket sales around here the past few days. I think the dynamics change when you open over a big holiday weekend when people have more time and are more likely to show up in the spur of the moment.

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Aladdin has actually enjoyed a nice spike in ticket sales around here the past few days. I think the dynamics change when you open over a big holiday weekend when people have more time and are more likely to show up in the spur of the moment.

Or Florida and California are just overperforming because of the proximity of Disney parks. 

[VanillaSkies]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

As I said with the Fandango sales: it opens on MDW so you need to take into account that aspect of it. So it’s 3-day maybe depressed because it has a holiday Monday. 

 

Also Detective Pikachu did 9.56x. BATB did a 10.5 so it’s within that range. I’d imagine Aladdin would be around 10-11x. Don’t see why it would be more.  

Beauty and the Beast though was an outlier so far with these Disney remakes, opening well above all the rest with 175 million 3 day. 

I don't think you can compare it solely to that. I'd rather compare it to the average of the last couple year's of Disney remakes. 

I think BATB will be the comparison for TLK as we are all expecting a 175+ 3 day for that one. 

Aladdin is just not on the same level as those two. 

I'm not so sure Monday holiday is going to affect presales all that much at this point. 

Most sales will be for the standard 3 day weekend. Friday/Saturday I imagine ticket sales for Monday will start picking up. Looking at the theaters I usually track, even the IMAX shows are pretty much empty on Monday at the moment.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Or Florida and California are just overperforming because of the proximity of Disney parks. 

Impossible when the theater isn't running that creepy Epcot Flower & Garden Festival commercial anymore. Don't underestimate its power!

 

Reference for those who don't know what I'm talking about:

 

 

 

[kitik]

So this week John Wick gets the PLF screens here in town.

Next week Aladdin gets them.

But the following week, they're split. Godzilla gets one, and Rocketman gets the other.

 

Are other people seeing similar splits like that between Godzilla and Rocketman?

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, kitik said:

Are other people seeing similar splits like that between Godzilla and Rocketman?

KotM looks to be getting around 80 percent  PLF screens locally, though some places don't have their schedules up yet.

 

Has 38/48 showings each so far for Fri, Sat, and Sun.  One place is exclusively Rocketman (it's one of the busier joints in town), the other is a 50/50 split (it has four "Giant Screens", one each so far) at the moment.  Everyone else is KotM or doesn't have their PLFs up yet.

Edited May 18, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

14 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-120 (+6), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-101 (+4), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening) Final week

Dark Phoenix-60 (+5), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Not great for Aladdin, there's still a showing for it with no tickets sold. I'm honestly not seeing this big growth a lot of people are. Maybe it's just my theater being weird but.....  Good for KoTM and DP though. 

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-122 (+2), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-103 (+2), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening) Final week

Dark Phoenix-61 (+1), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Nothing too huge for any of the openers yet but...man Aladdin is....yeah.

[Tinalera]

Aladdin and Rocketman london previews

 

Silvercity 

Aladdin

2 showings 51 of 626 sold

 

Rocketman

1 showing almost sold out 61 of 69 sold

 

Westmount 

 

Aladdin

4 avx showings 88 of 688 seats sold.

 

Rocketman

 

2 showings 1 no sales yet 1 43....looks like west will be overfill when city sells out

Edited May 18, 2019 by Tinalera
More info

[filmlover]

32 minutes ago, kitik said:

So this week John Wick gets the PLF screens here in town.

Next week Aladdin gets them.

But the following week, they're split. Godzilla gets one, and Rocketman gets the other.

 

Are other people seeing similar splits like that between Godzilla and Rocketman?

Sorta. Most theaters are giving Godzilla the PLF screens but those with more than one are giving Rocketman the other. Not surprised since one of the big hooks for the latter is hearing the music in the best movie theater surround sound like Bohemian Rhapsody.

[Cap]

37 minutes ago, kitik said:

Are other people seeing similar splits like that between Godzilla and Rocketman?

Lincoln Square has Godzilla on IMAX and Rocketman on Dolby.