The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Is that the major base it's skewing toward though?  This isn't a new YA adaptation.  It's supposedly a 4 quadrant film that should skew family.

 

For all that I had to hear Shazam and Pickachu were family films with big walk ups on the horizon over the last two months the underselling of Aladdin as a family film is puzzling.

 

Thing is, these 90s Disney adaptations have a heavy fanbase by default because people watched them as a kid and are nostalgic. That's why Jungle Book and Dumbo have preview multipliers in the 20s because they play as family films, while BATB and probably Aladdin will have theirs closer to 10 (I am expecting 9-9.5 for Aladdin).

[TalismanRing]

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

Thing is, these 90s Disney adaptations have a heavy fanbase by default because people watched them as a kid and are nostalgic. That's why Jungle Book and Dumbo have preview multipliers in the 20s because they play as family films, while BATB and probably Aladdin will have theirs closer to 10 (I am expecting 9-9.5 for Aladdin).

BATB had a 10.7 multi with previews at $16.3m - more than double what is projected for Aladdin and w/o a holiday buffered Sunday.   I see no reason Aladdin shouldn't be in the 11-13 range.  Pirates was the fifth in a series and did over 13x

 

Edited May 23, 2019 by TalismanRing

[MikeQ]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Thing is, these 90s Disney adaptations have a heavy fanbase by default because people watched them as a kid and are nostalgic. That's why Jungle Book and Dumbo have preview multipliers in the 20s because they play as family films, while BATB and probably Aladdin will have theirs closer to 10 (I am expecting 9-9.5 for Aladdin).

A 9-9.5 multiplier seems low. Beauty and the Beast had a 10.72 preview multiplier. Something around there seems reasonable for Aladdin, given what will be an inflated Sunday due to the holiday weekend. Unless we have reason to believe Aladdin is likely to be significantly more frontloaded than Beauty and the Beast - I don't know.

 

Peace,

Mike

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

BATB had a 10.7 multi with previews at $16.3m - more than double what is projected for Aladdin and w/o a holiday buffered Monday.   I see no reason Aladdin shouldn't be in the 11-13 range.  Pirates was the fifth in a series and did over 13x

That’s my guess as well, though I’m going with 11-12x.

[Nova]

I thought Pikachu and Shazam! would be family friendly (they weren’t) but I still had Pikachu’s multiplier at around a 10x. The higher a movie doesn’t in previews, the lower the IM. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

17 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

BATB had a 10.7 multi with previews at $16.3m - more than double what is projected for Aladdin and w/o a holiday buffered Sunday.   I see no reason Aladdin shouldn't be in the 11-13 range.  Pirates was the fifth in a series and did over 13x

 

 

17 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

A 9-9.5 multiplier seems low. Beauty and the Beast had a 10.72 preview multiplier. Something around there seems reasonable for Aladdin, given what will be an inflated Sunday due to the holiday weekend. Unless we have reason to believe Aladdin is likely to be significantly more frontloaded than Beauty and the Beast - I don't know.

 

Peace,

Mike

I'm going with 9-9.5 because that's what presales seem to suggest compared to I2 (extrapolating for the extra day until exact comps can be made to Incredibles 2/others). Maybe Aladdin will be more walkup heavy though, but I feel like an animated film has many walkups, even an anticipated one like I2. The Sunday may skew things higher though

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, Nova said:

I thought Pikachu and Shazam! would be family friendly (they weren’t) but I still had Pikachu’s multiplier at around a 10x. The higher a movie doesn’t in previews, the lower the IM. 

Might be writing this one off a little early...it's already dropping under 50% week-to-week with no holidays and it didn't have a large 2nd weekend drop (and it's looking at the good holiday weekend)...might let it play out a little more before you declare its legs "non-family" - I mean, it's looking like 3.0x+ is still very possible:)...

[el sid]

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:
 

Aladdin: 384/15 – yesterday at that time it were 191/15, up 101%; Lego 2 had 110/15, HtTYD 3 227/15, Wonder Park 44/15, The Grinch 184/15, Dumbo 167/15, Pika 210/15, all same day and time of the day.
Brightburn: 29/15 – yesterday 11/15; The Prodigy had 3/15, Pet Sematary 105/15, The Intruder 35/15, Escape Room 36/15, Overlord 27/15, all same day and time of the day.
Booksmart: 6/15 – yesterday 8/15; The Hustle had at that time 26/15.

GKotM: 9/15 – yesterday 12/15
 

And Pulse 10:50-11:04 EST:

Aladdin: 600/15 – yesterday 347/15, up 73%; Lego 2 had 160/15, HtTYD 3 325/15, Dumbo 223/15, Wonder Park 59/15, The Grinch 294/15, all same day and time of the day and 15 minutes too late Pika with 488/15. Really strange, almost all comparison films were doing far worse at that time. Only that Aladdin is not as far in front of Pika as yesterday or that the increase in its second counting is smaller than in the first counting could be a sign that it's slowing down a bit, maybe. Still it looks way better for Aladdin than in the theater reports here in this thread.
Brightburn: 45/15 – yesterday 18/15; The Prodigy had 25/15, Pet Sematary 152/15, The Intruder 60/15, Escape Room 80/15, Overlord 50/15, all same day and time of the day. Would mean ca. 10M OW.
Booksmart: 27/15 – yesterday 12/15, a bit better now; The Hustle had 60/15.

GKotM: 29/15 – yesterday 24/15

Edited May 23, 2019 by el sid

[titanic2187]

If France, Italy and SK initial number is any guide, this movie will not disappoint in stateside, through 100m 4 days is pretty much a pipedream now. 

 

Using those 3 countries as guide, the 4 days opening will be around 85m, half of BATB 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

18 hours ago, Nova said:

The only way I can see Aladdin doing $85M for the 4-day is if it plays very heavily to females and thus is skewing the presales. And even then Id have to look at other comps for it. Because its presales are way too strong and all these outlets are drunk for predicting such a number. And yea yea I know that its better to be safe than sorry but still those tracking numbers just seem low given its Fandango numbers. 

 

Also I'm guessing for MDW that BOP will release its estimates tomorrow? I'm interested to see where BOP has it because they usually give a reasoning for their predictions and if they also have it opening around there, I wanna know why given its doing well in presales. Maybe @Shawn checks in tonight and can share his wisdom. 

 

Edit: never mind. BOP also posted their prediction (I guess I missed it) and its at $75m for the 4-day too….

 

 @CoolEric258 was right from what he said earlier today about trades being conservative cause BOP mentioned conservative estimates being a result of Disney having underperformers the last couple MDW. 

 

 

I'm actually curious to hear which movies everyone here is comparing the pre-sales to. I do agree they're being skewed toward a Disney faithful fan segment, though.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Tentatek said:

I hope they sort out all the troll ratings on old movies as well. Not just the current ones with the new system in place. 

I don't see how they could, not without wiping everything out and starting over.  Especially for movies more than a few months old.

2 hours ago, Tentatek said:

 

Oops how convenient. Anyways, Aladdin lucked out. Summer smash incoming. 

Yes, I'm quite sure the partially WB-backed company (30% ownership with Comcast owning the other 70%) is going out of its way to prop up a Disney flick.  👍

Edited May 23, 2019 by Porthos

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Might be writing this one off a little early...it's already dropping under 50% week-to-week with no holidays and it didn't have a large 2nd weekend drop (and it's looking at the good holiday weekend)...might let it play out a little more before you declare its legs "non-family" - I mean, it's looking like 3.0x+ is still very possible:)...

Should be close. 150+ is my guess for sure.

[Biggestgeekever]

Partial Seattle report for Thursday:

 

Regal Thornton Place:

5:00PM (Fan Event 3D) - 12/279
6:00PM (IMAX 2D) - 14/316

6:40PM (2D) - 22/349
7:20PM (2D) - 26/280

8:00PM (3D) - 10/204

9:00PM (IMAX 3D) - 12/316

9:40PM (2D) - 10/349

10:20PM (2D) - 0/280

 

Total - 106/2,373 (4.47%)

 

AMC Southcenter:
5:00PM (Fan Event 3D) - 31/170

6:00PM (Dolby Cinema 2D) - 100/157
6:00PM (2D) - 11/298

7:00PM (IMAX 2D) - 75/276

8:00PM (3D) - 10/220

9:00PM (Dolby Cinema 2D) - 94/157

9:30PM (2D) - 2/298

10:30PM (2D) - 0/298

11:00PM (2D) - 2/220

 

Total - 325/2094 (15.52%)

 

Cinemark Lincoln Square:

5:00PM (Fan Event 3D) - 43/162

6:00PM (IMAX 2D) -13/447

6:00PM (2D) - 15/453

7:00PM (3D) - 0/368

8:15PM (2D) - 4/162

9:30PM (IMAX 3D) - 20/447

10:00PM (2D) - 2/453

10:30PM (3D) - 2/368

 

Total - 99/2,860 (3.46%)

 

AMC Loews Factoria:

6:00PM (2D) - 50/136

9:00PM (2D) - 32/136

10:00PM (3D) - 9/163

 

Total - 91/453 (20.09%)

 

At the larger theaters, Dolby Cinema is the only format that's selling well tonight, while everything else can be generously described as anemic. I'll do a Friday count at the same theaters tonight, and just at a glance it certainly looks better than Thursday but still not like a big opener.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Is that the major base it's skewing toward though?  This isn't a new YA adaptation.  It's supposedly a 4 quadrant film that should skew family.

 

For all that I had to hear Shazam and Pickachu were family films with big walk ups on the horizon over the last two months the underselling of Aladdin as a family film is puzzling.

 

People got burned twice in rapid succession so it's not that puzzling to me.

 

I personally do think Aladdin will be more family-based, but I can see the hesitancy. 

 

(also, as @TwoMisfits Pika PIka certainly looks to have family film type legs, though the jury isn't completely back in on that score)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Didn't realize that the daily split Pulse counts were from the end of weekend instead of pausing after Thursday. I take back my prediction of the internal multi, probably will end up higher than I2

[Mulder]

14 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, just Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-159 (+19), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular)

Aladdin-183 (+21), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 3 Regular+Fan Screening) Final Day

 

KoTM had an amazing day but this is fucking horrible for Aladdin. Absolutely atrocious. Below Pikachu and John Wick on it's final day by a landslide. Can't even try to sell this as a good thing. This is an absolute and utter flop.

 

14 hours ago, Mulder said:

Dark Phoenix-72 (+2), 6 screenings

First count of today, just Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-161 (+2), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final week

Dark Phoenix-72, 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

[Mulder]

On 5/16/2019 at 3:07 PM, Mulder said:

Final post for John Wick-

7:00 IMAX-73/302

7:30 2D-63/107

8:00 2D-38/70

9:00 2D-25/71

9:30 2D-9/60

10:00 IMAX-52/302

10:30 2D-30/107

290/1,019 aka 28%

 

While this is lower then Pikachu, worth noting that John Wick got 3 showings added last minute which will probably be filled up more with walk ups.

Final post for Aladdin-

5:00 Fan Event-30/117

6:00 IMAX-44/302

6:00 3D-10/117

7:00 2D-59/107

8:00 2D-27/69

9:15 IMAX-37/302

9:45 3D-9/117

10:15 2D-6/107

 

222/1,238 aka 17.93%

 

While it at least ended up passing 200 tickets....it's way below John Wick and Pikachu and has a much worse percentage. 

[Nova]

Aladdin got an additional showtime for tonight so it’s up to 3. For FSS it’s getting 8 showtimes, up from 4. 

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

Aladdin - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 24/532

9:15 PM - 23/532

 

RPX 2D

 

7:00 PM - 24/744

10:15 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

9:45 PM - 0/411

 

2D

 

6:30 PM - 73/411

10:45 PM NEW - 2/128

 

Total

 

146(+104)/3502(+128) (4.2%)

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

If France, Italy and SK initial number is any guide, this movie will not disappoint in stateside, through 100m 4 days is pretty much a pipedream now. 

 

Using those 3 countries as guide, the 4 days opening will be around 85m, half of BATB 

 

Those international numbers and the fandango updates make me wonder if I totally misscalculate the OWend in Germany, because right now I am on the epic fail train with a OWend of like a fourth of BatB.

 

And Aladdin is basically getting showtimes like Endgame did, like on Sunday it has 18 seats less in the local cinema.

Edited May 23, 2019 by Taruseth