The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TalismanRing]

FANDANGO PULSE  Eye Count

 

THUR

Aladdin: 85 avg (3:15pm)

Pirates 5:  46 (2pm)
WW: 46 (10am), 125 (5pm)
SM:HC:  174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)
Justice League: 103 (3:30pm), 124 (4:15pm), 145 (5:30pm)
Thor:R : 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)
WIT: 28.5 (7:30pm)
Deadpool 2: 165.5 (3:20pm), 204 (5:20pm)
Solo:  89 avg (3:30pm), 92.6 (4pm), 134 (5:45pm)
JW:FK: 121 (3:30pm) 156.7 (5:30pm)
AM&TW: 135 (5:15pm)

 

Of course this doesn't take into account earlier pre-sales but some older comps that aren't on the akvalley charts

 

[Taruseth]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

FANDANGO PULSE  Eye Count

 

THUR

Aladdin: 85 avg (3:15pm)

Pirates 5:  46 (2pm)
WW: 46 (10am), 125 (5pm)
SM:HC:  174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)
Justice League: 103 (3:30pm), 124 (4:15pm), 145 (5:30pm)
Thor:R : 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)
WIT: 28.5 (7:30pm)
Deadpool 2: 165.5 (3:20pm), 204 (5:20pm)
Solo:  89 avg (3:30pm), 92.6 (4pm), 134 (5:45pm)
JW:FK: 121 (3:30pm) 156.7 (5:30pm)
AM&TW: 135 (5:15pm)

 

Of course this doesn't take into account earlier pre-sales but some older comps that aren't on the akvalley charts

 

thanks.

Mmmh,

Around Solo and signifanctly above Pirates 5, yet way below thinkgs like SM and Deadpool.

 

Why does this data need to be so confusing.

Edited May 23, 2019 by Taruseth

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

thanks.

Mmmh,

Around Solo and signifanctly above Pirates 5, yet way below thinkgs like SM and Deadpool.

 

Why does this data need to be so confusing.

Among those Pirates is the best genre comp since CBM tend to be more pre-sale heavy which contributes to higher previews.

 

But for the w/e their internal multi should be lower.

 

But the Thur numbers show it's doing rather well.  Later numbers around 5pm will show if it continues to pick up.

 

Thur Previews

DP2 - $18.6m

SM: $15.4m

Thor:R: $1.5m

Solo: $14.2m (like all recent SW movies - VERY pre-sale heavy and extremely front loaded)

Justice League: $13m

AM&TW: $11.5m (frontloaded since in the middle of 4th of July holidays)

WW: $11m

Pirates: $5.5m

Edited May 23, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:30pm - 1:05pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	10762	13853*	22.31%

* NOTE:  I either put in the wrong amount of seats for one showing OR the showing in question was shifted to a smaller auditorium in the last couple of days and I didn't notice.  Either way, I noticed today that one showing had 73 less seats available than I had marked on my spreadsheet. This HAS NOT affected the seats sold counts in any way at all.

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:         585

The best comp I have so far might be Detective Pikachu.  I also have less ideal comps with Solo (for Memorial Day Weekend like-for-like), JW2 and FB2.  Other last minute comps in Venom and Ant-Man and the Wasp have been added.  

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.1669x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu mid-day of premiere. 

 

T-0 Mid-day (all sold in that half day):

Pika:     392  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/112 showings   |  7619/10268 seats left   | 25.80% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.5225x as many tickets sold as Solo mid-day of premiere.

.5595x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom mid-day of premiere.

.7839x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp mid-day of premiere.

.8176x as many tickets sold as Venom mid-day of premiere.

.6547x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald mid-day of premiere.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

T-0 Mid-day (all sold in that half day):

Solo              425 tickets sold [0 sellouts/142 showings |   8150/13453 seats left | 39.42% sold]

JW2               761 tickets sold [0 sellouts/147 showings |   8762/13715 seats left | 36.11% sold]

AM&tW          897 tickets sold [0 sellouts/112 showings |   7361/10896 seats left | 32.44% sold]

Aladdin (JW)  536 tickets sold [0 sellouts/117 showings |    9198/11969 seats left | 23.15% sold]

----

Venom          725 tickets sold [0 sellouts/127 showings |   9748/13229 seats left | 26.31% sold] 

FB2               570 tickets sold [0 sellouts/134 showings | 11494/15841 seats left | 27.44% sold] 

Aladdin (FB)  560 tickets sold [0 sellouts/117 showings |   9841/12687 seats left | 22.43% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom, Solo, and AM&tW

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald and Venom

[Porthos]

I guess all those Fandango sales are going to Sacramento or sumthin'.

 

Just a strong half-day locally.  Too strong it might appear looking at other reports.

 

It's not doing as well as AM&tW, Venom, or JW2 on its half day.  But it is noticeably ahead of Solo and Pika Pika.  Might be random varience though considering what TalismanRing just reported on Solo.

 

Either way, it appears to be at least walkup-friendly, walkup-ish here in Sacto.

 

(Also, IF I trusted the Venom/Solo/JW2/AM2 comps, we'd be looking at around 8m or so in previews.  Given everyone else's theaters, I can't commit to that. )

Edited May 23, 2019 by Porthos

[Biggestgeekever]

Based on where the Fandango tracker is at now, it seems like Thursday should be right around 31K which is where John Wick 3 ($5.9M previews) and Fantastic Beasts 2($7.3M Thursday previews). You can argue Aladdin will be more walkup heavy than those, but with fan screenings starting at 5PM and regular showings starting at 6PM, I would figure we'd see a bigger early boost today anyway. I think $6M-$7M is the ticket tonight based on that, though the conflicting theater info still makes me a little cautious.

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Based on where the Fandango tracker is at now, it seems like Thursday should be right around 31K which is where John Wick 3 ($5.9M previews) and Fantastic Beasts 2($7.3M Thursday previews). You can argue Aladdin will be more walkup heavy than those, but with fan screenings starting at 5PM and regular showings starting at 6PM, I would figure we'd see a bigger early boost today anyway. I think $6M-$7M is the ticket tonight based on that, though the conflicting theater info still makes me a little cautious.

I think that’s a good range. I’ve personally had it around $7M based on what other people are saying and taking into account how it’s doing at my theater. My theater finally gave it another showing and it’s helping boost up Thursday. That’s something John Wick didn’t get so at least it got that extra showtime here  

[YM!]

$7M-$8M imho.

[TwoMisfits]

18 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, the locals expanded Thursday shows on Tuesday morning, and I thought I'd update with my "before the big walkup/prebuy day" data...

 

1st local - Cinemark - now has 6 shows, but still only 1 3d (that is selling like crap at both locals, and Aladdin is really not getting much 3d for Thursday here)...2d - 103/185 (+32), 9/60 (+9), 11/60 (+11), 10/60 (+10), 2/60 (+2) and 3d 16/185 (+8) for total 151/610 sold (+72 in 4 days)

 

2nd local - Regal - now has 7 shows, but still only 1 3d...2d - 68/125 (+36), 101/170 (+25), 12/90 (+12), 23/125 (+14), 2/50 (+2), 4/90 (+4) and 3d - 4/170 (+0 - did I mention 3d was crapola) for total 212/820 sold (+91 in 4 days)

 

If this was any family movie but a Disney movie, I'd say this is a very good 1 day prior number, even though the numbers haven't "ramped" that much...but, it is a Disney movie and those just presale more to their fanbase, so I dunno...

 

I'm trying to not let my feel for the movie affect my judgment for the movie...I think we should be able to see the Thursday preview numbers we've seen the last few weeks, even if the normal last-minute presales surge and walk ups are light (and if they are really good, we might see higher)...but my area could be overperforming and these 2 theaters are only selling the cheap tickets, with 3d being a crap seller and not even offered more than once at both...

So, my area continues to be a "feast" area, so I'm more convinced that population demographics will play a large role in the weekend performance...my theaters have ramped up so much that my Cinemark has added another extra showing...rather than break down per show, here are the numbers (and note - 3d still WILDLY sucks...even the single showings are a waste, and will be b/c there is still enough footprint to fit everyone 2d)...

 

PS - These numbers are both already better than Pika and Wick, but I think I am an outlier...but even as an outlier area, it will still pull overall previews up...so no way do I see previews lower than Pika or Wick...in my gut, even though I know I'm in an overperforming area, I think this is going high single digits (I think someone said $7-9M, and that feels right) unless there is outright rejection in other major metros...

 

Cinemark - 6 2d shows - +76 seats - 3d show - +1 seat (228/670 sold)

Regal - - 6 2d shows - +83 seats - 3d show - +3 seats (298/820 sold)

 

Not sure I'll get to the "right before" showtime numbers, but I think those won't be that high on a Thursday night...my area is all reserved seating, so you tend to buy before you arrive (at this point, some theaters don't even staff the walk up windows anymore - they combine it with concessions on regular weeknights)...

Edited May 23, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Rorschach]

First preview for Aladdin starts in about an hour at my theater:

 

5:00 Fan Event Showing

40/85

 

IMAX 2D

6:00 - 23/387

9:10 - 5/387

 

3D

8:00 - 12/85

11:00 - 0/85

 

2D

7:00 - 64/135

7:30 - 42/78

10:10 - 15/135

10:40 - 2/78

 

203/1,455 (13.95% of all seats sold)

[Rorschach]

Also the showings for Booksmart and Brightburn tonight:

 

Booksmart

7:00 - 0/67

9:45 - 2/67

 

2/134 (1.49% of all seats sold)

 

Brightburn

7:00 - 22/94

9:30 - 9/94

 

31/188 (16.49% of all seats sold)

[Tinalera]

Aladdin silvercity london may 23

 

Regular
740 124/323
1010 30/323

 

Total 154/626

 

Westmount 

 

Avx 
710 62/173
1000 30/173

 

Total 92/343
 

Edited May 23, 2019 by Tinalera
More info

[Tinalera]

So if i apply my "probably totally off base what am i thinking?" idea.....i try and guess the x10 multiplier of previews for ow ( not withstanding my very contrary thurs numbers wont tell story i said yesterday) a 10x gives a 70-80 ow, which kind of follows tracking (well some of it anyway)

 

80 mil for 4 day weekend though....thats rough. There has to be some decent walkup imo to get this to a 3 digit ow mark. Again back to wom...will people recommend it for legs? 

 

Again my totally unscientific i must be crazy opinion

[Biggestgeekever]

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4514&p=.htm

 

Quote

Smith's CG-generated Genie was the focus of some early, negative buzz online and while the film has gained ground leading up to release, mixed reviews are also unlikely to help the film's weekend cause. A look at IMDb page view data shows it pacing behind 2014's Maleficent ($69.4m opening), Disney's release of The Jungle Book ($103.2m opening) and last year's Memorial Day weekend opener Solo: A Star Wars Story ($84.4m opening). It is, however, dramatically outpacing Dumbo and Alice Through the Looking Glass.

THREE-DAY WEEKEND FORECAST

• Aladdin - $60.0 M
• John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (3,862 theaters) - $23.9 M
• Avengers: Endgame - $17.4 M
• Pokemon Detective Pikachu (4,168 theaters) - $14.1 M
• Brightburn (2,607 theaters) - $13.0 M
• Booksmart (2,505 theaters) - $11.0 M
• A Dog's Journey (3,274 theaters) - $4.6 M
• The Hustle (2,377 theaters) - $3.6 M
• The Intruder (1,612 theaters) - $2.6 M
• Long Shot (1,602 theaters) - $1.7 M

 

FOUR-DAY WEEKEND FORECAST

• Aladdin - $75.3 M
• John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (3,862 theaters) - $30.6 M
• Avengers: Endgame - $22.2 M
• Pokemon Detective Pikachu (4,168 theaters) - $17.8 M
• Brightburn (2,607 theaters) - $15.0 M
• Booksmart (2,505 theaters) - $13.0 M
• A Dog's Journey (3,274 theaters) - $6.3 M
• The Hustle (2,377 theaters) - $4.5 M
• The Intruder (1,612 theaters) - $3.3 M
• Long Shot (1,602 theaters) - $2.2 M

[Nova]

I know I have said this before but I'm genuinely confused as to where these sites are getting their info to low ball this film so much 

 

Do they like know something that we don't? 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Yeah now that I realized the Fandango data is cumulative I'm upping to $6.5-7 million previews/$75 million 3-day, $90ish million 4-day. And 6.5 seems quite doable from the 21526 it's currently sold on Pulse for today with several hours left to go (compared to 64k total for Incredibles 2), could go higher.

[VanillaSkies]

5 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

BATB had a 10.7 multi with previews at $16.3m - more than double what is projected for Aladdin and w/o a holiday buffered Sunday.   I see no reason Aladdin shouldn't be in the 11-13 range.  Pirates was the fifth in a series and did over 13x

 

Wow, @TalismanRing serving TRUTH over the last couple pages. 

That Tea was piping hot  

[Tinalera]

Any idea when we will start getting thursday numbers/estimates?

[YM!]

Aladdin’s goal for the night is 222 tickets sold (using DP as a comparison it’d have roughly $8M in previews), which sold be easily feasible.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Any idea when we will start getting thursday numbers/estimates?

Deadline will drop an estimate in a few hours probably, although they're a little irregular with their timing. It'll be a range anyway, so probably not that useful