The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Atreides]

Guess I should also mention that all of this week's openers are leapfrogging over their Monday results. At the same point in time, Godzilla's about 175% ahead of Monday at the same point in time, Rocketman is about 245%, and Ma is around 285%. I don't think any of these will hold onto these numbers. But really, I can only see slight decreases. I won't do any comps just yet, but unless everything else jumped up this high, we should be in for some rosier projections.

[FlashMaster659]

What was I2's first day on Pulse?

[Cap]

23 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Release Date is July 19th, with previews on the 18th.  Releasing it on the Monday after TS4 bows (that would be June 24) sounds like a good bet to me.  EIther that or the Monday after that, the 30th.

June 24, along with being my birthday, is the release date of the original The Lion King. So June 24 would be 15th Anniversary. Feels VERY apropos. 

[Eric Atreides]

2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

What was I2's first day on Pulse?

Don't know exact #s hour to hour, but it's about 1,967. It also started presales on a Friday, when upcoming movies are deflated, so it's not a perfect comparison, but I feel like if Toy Story does at least 1,000 today, that would be an excellent start.

Edited May 28, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

June 24, along with being my birthday, is the release date of the original The Lion King. So June 24 would be 15th Anniversary. Feels VERY apropos. 

EDIT: when the gif breaks

Edited May 28, 2019 by Mulder

[FlashMaster659]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Don't know exact #s hour to hour, but it's about 1,967. It also started presales on a Friday, when upcoming movies are deflated, so it's not a perfect comparison, but I feel like if Toy Story does at least 1,000 today, that would be an excellent start.

Probably will. It's already making a killing at my AMC after just 90 minutes.

[Porthos]

I am about 2/3rd's of the way through building my seat map for TS4.

 

TS4 has already outsold Pika PIka's first day locally.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I am about 2/3rd's of the way through building my seat map for TS4.

 

TS4 has already outsold Pika PIka's first day locally.

I don’t think Pikachu is good comp for this. Even if TS4 wont come close to I2 OW, I2 PS would be the best comp. PS has grown 30-40% in 2 years and so it has to come somewhere close to I2 to open to 125m OW.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I don’t think Pikachu is good comp for this. Even if TS4 wont come close to I2 OW, I2 PS would be the best comp. PS has grown 30-40% in 2 years and so it has to come somewhere close to I2 to open to 125m OW.

I2 was last year. I'd hazard a guess that the same PS as I2 lands TS4 closer to $150m than $125m.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I don’t think Pikachu is good comp for this. Even if TS4 wont come close to I2 OW, I2 PS would be the best comp. PS has grown 30-40% in 2 years and so it has to come somewhere close to I2 to open to 125m OW.

I don't have an Incredibles 2 comp, but it was last year so it's still viable as a comp for those who have it.

 

[Taruseth]

22 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Your theater has 14 sold for SLoP 2? Mine has only 5*. 

 

*last I checked

I count three theatres (though that's in Germany), one of them isn't even bothering putting the showing up for presales and on the other two, it sold 1 and 0.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I would expect I2 to be more presale heavy than TS4 actually given the amount of adult audience it had on OW

[ThomasNicole]

I don’t think TS4 will have presales on I2 level, there’s less rush.

 

That said, this is pointing to a really strong first day. I have doubts if this can match Dory OW, but i think it will pass TS3 debut easily.

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I don’t think Pikachu is good comp for this. Even if TS4 wont come close to I2 OW, I2 PS would be the best comp. PS has grown 30-40% in 2 years and so it has to come somewhere close to I2 to open to 125m OW.

 

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

I would expect I2 to be more presale heavy than TS4 actually given the amount of adult audience it had on OW

I also tend to think both Pikachu and Aladdin should be decent enough comps for recent films.  They're both family films (or close enough at least) and they both had a base of support among adults.

 

Is it a perfect comp?  Of course not.  I2 is the closest one, IMO.  Good enough comps to gauge relative strength?  I tend to think so, especially with all of the nostalgia surrounding TS4.

 

Open to arguments on why they'd be bad comps.  But good enough to get some sort of idea of strength?  I'd think so.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I also tend to think both Pikachu and Aladdin should be decent enough comps for recent films.  They're both family films (or close enough at least) and they both had a base of support among adults.

 

Is it a perfect comp?  Of course not.  I2 is the closest one, IMO.  Good enough comps to gauge relative strength?  I tend to think so, especially with all of the nostalgia surrounding TS4.

 

Open to arguments on why they'd be bad comps.  But good enough to get some sort of idea of strength?  I'd think so.

Pikachu and Aladdin (which played very similar to each other) did not play particularly similarly to I2 throughout the OW. The I2 comp was giving something like 8 million previews and 34 million for the true Friday when comparing their Pulse sales. I think a big issue is the summer release date will give more walkup strength to TS4/I2 when compared to those two.

[keysersoze123]

Toy Story 4 has already sold over 1000 tickets at fandango.

 

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	36.605%	25182	Aladdin (2019)
2	14.262%	9811	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	07.741%	5325	Avengers Endgame (2019)
4	05.812%	3998	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	05.416%	3726	Aladdin
6	04.796%	3299	Booksmart
7	04.559%	3136	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
8	04.389%	3019	Brightburn
9	03.102%	2134	Rocketman
10	01.637%	1126	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
11	01.566%	1077	A Dogs Journey
12	01.507%	1037	Toy Story 4
13	01.398%	962	The Hustle (2019)
14	00.968%	666	Ma (2019)
15	00.856%	589	The Intruder (2019)
16	00.769%	529	Long Shot
17	00.753%	518	Dark Phoenix
18	00.446%	307	The Sun Is Also a Star
19	00.435%	299	The Secret Life of Pets 2
20	00.395%	272	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
21	00.285%	196	UglyDolls
22	00.190%	131	Poms
23	00.153%	105	The Biggest Little Farm
24	00.147%	101	The Curse of La Llorona
25	00.118%	81	Muklawa
26	00.113%	78	Breakthrough (2019)
27	00.099%	68	Captain Marvel (2019)
28	00.089%	61	Pavarotti Premiere Screening Event
29	00.067%	46	Saving Private Ryan (1998) Event
30	00.065%	45	Late Night (2019)
31	00.061%	42	Shazam!
32	00.049%	34	Spider-Man Far From Home  (2019)
33	00.045%	31	Toy Story 4 Opening Night Fan Event

[keysersoze123]

Toy Story 4 will play strong with Adults as well. Entire trilogy was beloved and this is the finale according to Tom Hanks. So I expect it to have strong PS way stronger than Pikachu or Aladdin.

[Mulder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Toy Story 4 will play strong with Adults as well. Entire trilogy was beloved and this is the finale according to Tom Hanks. So I expect it to have strong PS way stronger than Pikachu or Aladdin.

Until Pixar wants to make a quick 100 million OW with Toy Story 5.  I only say this because they said Toy Story 3 was the finale for years

[Eric Atreides]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Toy Story 4 has already sold over 1000 tickets at fandango.

 

43 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Don't know exact #s hour to hour, but it's about 1,967. It also started presales on a Friday, when upcoming movies are deflated, so it's not a perfect comparison, but I feel like if Toy Story does at least 1,000 today, that would be an excellent start.

 

See, right on track.  

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Mulder said:

Until Pixar wants to make a quick 100 million OW with Toy Story 5.  I only say this because they said Toy Story 3 was the finale for years

It was finale for Andy and his toys, but I never remember Tom Hanks talking about toys having a closure. But it would have been a great finish. Let us see how reviews are for this one though early tweets are promising.