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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Hmm would be amusing if Toy Story 4 breaks out too considering both it and Aladdin have had their fair share of doubters.

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28 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$60-65M seems good to go for Godzilla at this point. Still think it and the other two openers could've gone even higher if they weren't all up against each other in a crunch for theater space (on top of Aladdin still doing well) but a win is a win.

This is where Aladdin over-performing hurts KotM, IMO.  Not from pure competition as they're targeting fairly different demos, but being put in some of the smaller auditoriums upon screen expansion (i.e. not counting the ones already in pre-sale).

 

Already saw that at one local theater that expanded today as it didn't get some of the larger auditoriums.  This theater does have more small auditoriums than most, so it's susceptible to crunch more than others in the region.

 

Not saying this is a huge consideration, but it's probably a factor around the edges.

 

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SLOP 2 also opened this weekend against Aladdin and Rocketman (which overindexed in UK vs. the standard US ratio), so I'd caution against using it as an argument for it debuting low stateside. 

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On 5/27/2019 at 5:25 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/27/19 (End of Memorial Mon)  


1	51.9%	Aladdin
2	12.5%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
3	10.8%	Avengers: Endgame
4	7.7%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	3%      Booksmart  

 

 

17 PT 5/28/19 (End of Tues)  

1	47.7%	Aladdin
2	14.1%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
3	8.1%	Avengers: Endgame
4	6.9%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	3.6%    Brightburn    

There’s a usurper in 5th place, but not KotM yet. We’ll see it tomorrow but not sure what place.

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3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Hmm would be amusing if Toy Story 4 breaks out too considering both it and Aladdin have had their fair share of doubters.

I've been skeptical about whether Toy Story 4 will justify its existence, but I never had doubt that it's gonna make a lot of money.

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On 5/21/2019 at 4:48 PM, TwoMisfits said:

1st local - Cinemark - finally is set:).  They are sticking with a "blockbuster and bollywood" strategy, again skipping one of the week's wide releases to make sure they have enough screens for what they want.  And in GOOD news for Aladdin, it's not gonna be seat-limited - it pulled ALMOST 3 screens, and that's the set that movies that CAN go over $100M get (now, that is not a guarantee, but it means the space is available...now the movie has to deliver:)...anyway, here's the set...

 

NEW

 

Aladdin - (2.75 - 9 2d, 5 3d showings - late show lost on 3rd screen) - it also got the 2 biggest screens and an above average one - a better set for them than the presales here are warranting, but the theater is obviously hoping it delivers:)...

Brightburn (1 - 6 showings) (smallest screen type)

India's Most Wanted (1 - 5 showings (smallest screen type)

 

Booksmart was NOT booked here...

 

RETURNING

 

JW3 (1.75 - 9 showings) - lost 2 showings

A Dog's Journey (1 - 5 showings) - amazingly kept a full screen - must have been a good contract, or the theater is covering themselves for the Mem Weekend families in case Aladdin doesn't draw

Detective Pikachu (1.5 - 9 showings) - lost 3 showings

Endgame (1.75 - 7 showings) - lost 3 showings and moved to smaller screen size

1 Bollywood movie (.25 - 1 showing) - split on Endgame screen

 

1 screen is still to be booked - it will almost certainly be a few more random showings of foreign films, ala last week

 

GONE

The Hustle, The Intruder, the other foreign films...

 

So, as expected...all the films from May 10 and before are gone except Endgame and Pika...this is a feast or famine box office right now, and it's probably not gonna change next week...

First local - Cinemark - is finally up...and the theme of feast or famine continues.  For once, they HAVE booked all the openers this month, so it's a pretty vicious set for the holdovers...but b/c they got all the openers, it's also tight for the openers...here's the list...

 

NEW

KOTM - 2 - 3 3d, 8 2d showings - both on biggest screens - it did NOT get more space than presales 

Ma - 1 - 5 showings - above average screen

Rocketman - 1.5 - 7 showings - above average screen and smallest screen - this is more than presales, and they obviously are finding any showings they can give it...but 1.5 isn't that huge, so enormous weekend numbers, this will not get (nor will it beat KOTM unless KOTM leaves a lot of seats open)

NGK - 1 - 4 showings - smallest screen

 

RETURNING

Aladdin - 2 - 12 showings - what's harsh is that not only did it lose 2 showings, but it lost both biggest screens and weirdly is put on the 2 smallest size screens - that's a big drop for weekend 2...and a sign of the market tightness...obviously, this theater thinks its Aladdin base was driven by the Disney fanatic that's now seen it, not the family foot traffic...we'll see if it's a good call Friday

Brightburn - 1 - 6 showings - it kept the full screen - must have been a good contract

JW3 - 1 - 5 showings - as expected, it lost .75 screens

Pika - 1 - 5 showings - as expected, it lost .5 screens

Endgame - 1 - 4 showings - as expected, it lost .75 screens

 

GONE

A Dog's Journey (not a surprise), India's Most Wanted, the other foreign film

 

Next week, with SLOP and Dark Phoenix, it's gonna be a painful drop - the foreign film will go and Brightburn will go, but if they want an extra screen (or another foreign film on more than the .5 screen I expect Rocketman to lose), Aladdin or KOTM will have to give it up, or one of the big May 3 may go or get a split...

 

PS - There is .5 screens left, so I expect a single showing or 2 for some foreign films to fill in...

 

 

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Silvercity london 

Godzilla King of monsters 
IMAX

4pm 24/323 (+5)  
7pm 48/ 323 (+16) 
10pm 16/ 323(+7)

Westmount 
Godzilla     Thurs may 30
VIP
615 14/59 (+5)   930 9/59(+0)

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27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

This is where Aladdin over-performing hurts KotM, IMO.  Not from pure competition as they're targeting fairly different demos, but being put in some of the smaller auditoriums upon screen expansion (i.e. not counting the ones already in pre-sale).

 

Already saw that at one local theater that expanded today as it didn't get some of the larger auditoriums.  This theater does have more small auditoriums than most, so it's susceptible to crunch more than others in the region.

 

Not saying this is a huge consideration, but it's probably a factor around the edges.

 

Aladdin is getting demoted to medium-sized theaters here due to the openers. The three openers are getting the six largest screens (Rocketman gets three of them, Godzilla gets the PLF + another screen, and the last one of the big ones is going to Ma).

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KotM has now passed Endgame and is sitting at #3 on Fandango's rolling 24 hour counter:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-27 20:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	40.054%	27554	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	13.520%	9301	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3       07.328% 5041    Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined] 
4	07.306%	5026	Avengers Endgame (2019)
5	05.647%	3885	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
6	04.583%	3153	Booksmart
7	04.490%	3089	Brightburn
8	03.701%	2546	Rocketman
9	03.131%	2154	Toy Story 4 [combined]
10	01.459%	1004	A Dogs Journey

 

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Edited by Porthos
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1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

TS4 now at 2153 on the 24 hour Pulse tracker. Now past I2’s first day.

Don’t think it’ll open as big as I2 or gross the same as it or Dory but wonder how it’ll do OW.

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In the end Godzilla is doing what it needs to at the moment. Good! It’s reviews are basically what we all thought it would be too. Judge for yourself.... turn your brain off for 2 hours and watch some classic monsters do some cool stuff.

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Toy Story 4 will likely open to similar numbers as Toy Story 3 if not higher. Wouldn't underestimate people's desire to reconnect with these characters, especially given that almost as much time has passed between 3 and 4 as there was between 2 and 3.

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6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Toy Story 4 will likely open to similar numbers as Toy Story 3 if not higher. Wouldn't underestimate people's desire to reconnect with these characters, especially given that almost as much time has passed between 3 and 4 as there was between 2 and 3.

Agreed, TS4's going to be big. I never got the doubts people were putting forward about it tbh.

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Just now, Mulder said:

Agreed, TS4's going to be big. I never got the doubts people were putting forward about it tbh.

Honestly most of the doubts came from those approaching it with a stance of how unnecessary it may seem given how perfectly 3 ended. But hey, I'm ready for this franchise to emotionally destroy me for the fourth movie in a row and I imagine most are too. :D

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Think TS3 adjusted OW ($126M OW) seems like a great goal for Toy Story 4, with Pets 2 likely to underperform, it should be the first big animated event of the summer.

 

Kind of sad only this and Frozen 2 will cross the $200M DOM mark with ease.

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15 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Don’t think it’ll open as big as I2 or gross the same as it or Dory but wonder how it’ll do OW.

 Agree on I2 but I think Dory could be in sights. It'll be the main family movie for a month. Assuming it's of the same quality and WOM as the first 3, it should be able to pull at least 3.3x OW pretty easily (TS3 is 3.8, Dory is 3.6, I2 is 3.3)

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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 Agree on I2 but I think Dory could be in sights. It'll be the main family movie for a month. Assuming it's of the same quality and WOM as the first 3, it should be able to pull at least 3.3x OW pretty easily (TS3 is 3.8, Dory is 3.6, I2 is 3.3)

I suspect the combination of TLK and FFH both likely hitting $400M+ DOM, the latter with a chance for way more will hurt it. Thinking $125M/$413M.

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23 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Kind of sad only this and Frozen 2 will cross the $200M DOM mark with ease.

I read this as OW was like, YAAAH CAN'T WAIT FOR FROZEN 200M OW, oh, you mean total?  that will be nice too

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Just now, captainwondyful said:

I read this as OW was like, YAAAH CAN'T WAIT FOR FROZEN 200M OW, oh, you mean total?  that will be nice too

I do think $200M OW has a great chance.

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