The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Nothing much. Its not bad for Zillla but not a slam dunk day. Aladdin sold close to 11500 and this is selling half. It was not as if Aladdin was PS monster. Last week at this point we were still downbeat about it.

 

But key point is its doing similar when it comes to Thursday PS. Its friday/Sat/Sunday(Plus Aladdin had Memorial Day Sales) where its lacking. I definitely see Zilla have weaker PS to OW multi than 2014 movie.

 

Toy Story 4 has had a nice start but its still a tiny sample. I hope we get @Deep Wang update some point in its run to compare against I2.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nothing much. Its not bad for Zillla but not a slam dunk day. Aladdin sold close to 11500 and this is selling half. It was not as if Aladdin was PS monster. Last week at this point we were still downbeat about it.

 

But key point is its doing similar when it comes to Thursday PS. Its friday/Sat/Sunday(Plus Aladdin had Memorial Day Sales) where its lacking. I definitely see Zilla have weaker PS to OW multi than 2014 movie.

 

Toy Story 4 has had a nice start but its still a tiny sample. I hope we get @Deep Wang update some point in its run to compare against I2.

The thing is Aladdin's fandango sales were strong from the beginning. CoolEric had been saying that from Day 1, it was individual theaters not being as strong that made people doubt it.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

The thing is Aladdin's fandango sales were strong from the beginning. CoolEric had been saying that from Day 1, it was individual theaters not being as strong that made people doubt it.

This includes myself. I thought 85-90m as well.

[cdsacken]

Toy story is absolutely torching SLOP 2.

[filmlover]

51 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Feeling pretty confident that Toy Story 4 will be going over 100 million on OW. As usual people under-estimate Pixar's properties when they shouldn't.

Did anyone aside from the Disney haters (I'll never understand studio stans/anti-stans lol) ever doubt that it would make a total killing though?

[Porthos]

Just now, filmlover said:

Did anyone aside from the Disney haters (I'll never understand studio stans/anti-stans lol) ever doubt that it would make a total killing though?

Folks wondering if people would care after TS3 had a pretty good sense of closure had some doubts, yes.

 

And let's not forget, just one day of pre-sales.  After all, Solo started off strong and petered out.  Not that I think TS4 will, but it remains a cautionary tale.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Folks wondering if people would care after TS3 had a pretty good sense of closure had some doubts, yes.

 

And let's not forget, just one day of pre-sales.  After all, Solo started off strong and petered out.  Not that I think TS4 will, but it remains a cautionary tale.

In fairness, Solo had massive upfront sales due to the Star Wars fanbase. Toy Story 4 will see a majority of its business come from closer to release (I even just checked and most of the shows have sold nothing for that Friday so far, and this theater so far has it booked for 5 screens that whole weekend).

[Mulder]

9 hours ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-210 (+3), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final week

Dark Phoenix-90, 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

And with that I'm out of here until after the reviews drop...like hours later.

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-226 (+19), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final week

Dark Phoenix-95 (+5), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

SLoP2-5, 4 screenings (2 3D, 2 Regular)

Toy Story 4-35, 6 screenings listed, only 5 up for sale (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular) First day

 

Good recovery for KoTM today and Phoenix is edging closer to 100 tickets, should pass it by Thursday. Toy Story 4 also had a really good first day, passing Aladdin's first day at my theater. The showing not working for it btw is a 3D one so I doubt it's impacted it too much. In total today Godzilla sold 19 tickets, Phoenix sold 5, and Toy Story 4 sold 35.

[TwoMisfits]

On 5/22/2019 at 12:52 PM, TwoMisfits said:

I don't have time to search for my old Regal post - but its set is up, and it is also greatly favoring Aladdin this week.  If Aladdin comes low, it will not be b/c of seat sellouts at prime times...it also got THREE screens effectively (with late screens swiped, but getting 4 at all earlier times)...here's the set...

 

NEW 

Aladdin (3 - 1 3d, 12 2d) - biggest screen and above average screens here

Booksmart (1 - 5) - average screen

Brightburn (1 - 6) - above average screen

 

RETURNING

A Dog's Jorney (1 - 6)

JW3 (1.5 - 9 - takes late nights from Aladdin)

The Sun is Also A Star (.5 - 2) - takes late nights from Aladdin

The Hustle (1 - 6) - this is a surprise keep, but it's been dropped everywhere, so they probably figure they'll get stragglers

The Intruder (.5 - 2) - takes late nights from Aladdin

Pika (1 - 5)

Endgame (1 - 4) - this hurts b/c it's been continually selling out here, but it still loses .75 screens

 

.5 screens left for morning/early afternoon

 

GONE

Poms, Long Shot, Capt Marvel

2nd local set - and b/c of the tightness, I'm not expecting anything to greatly surprise to the upside, including Aladdin's weekend hold (sorry, movie fans, but it also takes a hit on showings here)...here's the set...

 

NEW

KOTM (2 - 9 showings - 1 3d, 8 2d) - biggest theater size and above average size

Ma (1 - 5 showings) - average size

Rocketman (1 - 5 showings) - above average size - this set just hurts for this film - it's gotta be the tightness, but it is what it is...

 

RETURNING

Aladdin (2 - 9 showings - 1 3d, 8 2d) - lost 4 showings/full screen AND dropped from biggest screen - this is rough...KOTM only had 1 screen in presales (and not the biggest one), so they obviously dropped that biggest one to KOTM - we'll see if it pays off...seems Dumbo's 2nd weekend might be a factor here, b/c both theaters have now set like they expect the non-family movie drop

Booksmart (1 - 5 showings) - I can't imagine it will not get a showing scratched if the other movies, like Rocketman are flying, but it keeps it for now

Brightburn (1 - 6 showings) - see above:)

JW3 - (1 - 6 showings) - as expected, lost the 1/2 screen

Pikachu (1 - 5 showings) 

Endgame (1 - 4 showings)

A Dog's Journey (.75 - 3 showings) / The Hustle (.25 - 1 showing) - both barely hang on for their obvious last week

 

GONE

The Intruder, The Sun Is Also a Star

 

Next week, The Hustle, Dog's Journey, Brightburn, and Booksmart will likely be gone to make way for Pets and Dark Phoenix (that will give 3 screens)...if they need more than that, it's either Aladdin or KOTM kicking their 2nd screens over...or something big getting split or dropped...should be interesting...

[filmlover]

The Wrap:

 

Godzilla: $55-65M

Rocketman: $25M (Paramount is projecting $18-20M)

Ma: $20M (Universal is projecting mid-teens)

 

https://www.thewrap.com/godzilla-king-monsters-box-offce/

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Wrap:

 

Godzilla: $55-65M

Rocketman: $25M (Paramount is projecting $18-20M)

Ma: $20M (Universal is projecting mid-teens)

 

https://www.thewrap.com/godzilla-king-monsters-box-offce/

Ayyy KoTM rose projections wise. That's a good sign.

[filmlover]

Just now, Mulder said:

Ayyy KoTM rose projections wise. That's a good sign.

tbh I always figured it would. An opening substantially lower than Kong never made much sense.

[Mulder]

Just now, filmlover said:

tbh I always figured it would. An opening substantially lower than Kong never made much sense.

That's always been my thought process behind 60-70 being the floor.

[Legion Again]

TS4 first day looking good. Think it’s got a real shot at #2 adjusted Pixar OW

[filmlover]

Honestly whatever the results are it's gonna be pretty sweet finally having a weekend this year where all of the openers do really well (Ma will be immensely profitable by the end of the weekend thanks to the budget being just $5M) after we haven't seemed to go one weekend without at least one movie or more debuting to mostly empty auditoriums. The industry has been in dire need of a weekend like this.

Edited May 29, 2019 by filmlover

[Hokkaido MUTO]

15 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Wrap:

 

Godzilla: $55-65M

Rocketman: $25M (Paramount is projecting $18-20M)

Ma: $20M (Universal is projecting mid-teens)

 

https://www.thewrap.com/godzilla-king-monsters-box-offce/

Good, good. I think it'll end up making 75 million. WOM for this will be pretty good since most people are just going in there for monster action,

[Porthos]

I'm sure folks care deeply, but it looks like MIB:I tickets are now available for pre-sale.

 

I don't recall anyone mentioning in the thread, so...

 

4pm previews, with PLFs available.

 

Also: No, no I shan't.

[keysersoze123]

Another update for rollover 24 hour. Zilla has hit around 5600 tickets and on hourly the combined sales are ahead of Wick. It should be Number 2 sometime tomorrow probably closer to noon PST.

 

 

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	33.926%	22807	Aladdin (2019)
2	12.826%	8622	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	07.109%	4779	Avengers Endgame (2019)
4	06.148%	4133	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
5	05.516%	3708	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
6	04.591%	3086	Aladdin
7	04.494%	3021	Booksmart
8	04.384%	2947	Brightburn
9	04.326%	2908	Rocketman
10	03.926%	2639	Toy Story 4
11	02.114%	1421	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
12	01.394%	937	A Dogs Journey
13	01.327%	892	Ma (2019)
14	01.316%	885	The Hustle (2019)
15	00.858%	577	The Intruder (2019)
16	00.832%	559	Dark Phoenix
17	00.678%	456	Long Shot
18	00.555%	373	The Secret Life of Pets 2
19	00.478%	321	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
20	00.414%	278	The Sun Is Also a Star
21	00.262%	176	UglyDolls
22	00.176%	118	Poms
23	00.150%	101	The Curse of La Llorona
24	00.138%	93	Muklawa
25	00.131%	88	Toy Story 4 Opening Night Fan Event

[Hokkaido MUTO]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Another update for rollover 24 hour. Zilla has hit around 5600 tickets and on hourly the combined sales are ahead of Wick. It should be Number 2 sometime tomorrow probably closer to noon PST.

 

 

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	33.926%	22807	Aladdin (2019)
2	12.826%	8622	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	07.109%	4779	Avengers Endgame (2019)
4	06.148%	4133	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
5	05.516%	3708	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
6	04.591%	3086	Aladdin
7	04.494%	3021	Booksmart
8	04.384%	2947	Brightburn
9	04.326%	2908	Rocketman
10	03.926%	2639	Toy Story 4
11	02.114%	1421	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
12	01.394%	937	A Dogs Journey
13	01.327%	892	Ma (2019)
14	01.316%	885	The Hustle (2019)
15	00.858%	577	The Intruder (2019)
16	00.832%	559	Dark Phoenix
17	00.678%	456	Long Shot
18	00.555%	373	The Secret Life of Pets 2
19	00.478%	321	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
20	00.414%	278	The Sun Is Also a Star
21	00.262%	176	UglyDolls
22	00.176%	118	Poms
23	00.150%	101	The Curse of La Llorona
24	00.138%	93	Muklawa
25	00.131%	88	Toy Story 4 Opening Night Fan Event

Is this good? In general, what's your assessment on this?

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	10882	11571	5.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    689

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be family friendly films such as Aladdin and Detective Pikachu .  I will also be using Fallen Kingdom and KotM as comps due to the walkup friendly nature of their genres.  I may drop them if I feel they are not working as comps.

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.3608x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after one day of pre-sales. 

2.9827x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after one day of pre-sales.

2.4007x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after one day of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

Also, some theaters sold tickets for a couple of days for KotM before being officially announced for sale.

 

Day 1:

Pika       158 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/63 showings   |     6864/7022 seats left    |  2.25% sold]

Aladdin  231 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/66 showings   |     8852/9083 seats left    |  2.54% sold]

KotM      287 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/55 showings   |     7257/7544 seats left    |  3.80% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.1193x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after one day of pre-sales.       

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

Day 1:

JW2             595 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings |   8760/9355 seats left   |  6.36% sold]

TS4 (JW)      666 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings |   9240/9906 seats left   |  6.72% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

 

===

 

KotM report in about 30-50 minutes, but I wanted to post this one first.