The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2019/05/aladdin-tuesday-box-office-record-disney-live-action-toon-remake-1202623582/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

Average industry estimates peg that the weekend will belong to Legendary/Warner Bros.’ Godzilla: King of the Monsters with around $55M at 4,100 locations. The lizard beast and friends will have all the strength of all 2D, 3D, Imax, Dolby Cinemas, PLF, Dine-Ins,  Drive-Ins and 4DX formats.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/05/aladdin-tuesday-box-office-record-disney-live-action-toon-remake-1202623582/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

Average industry estimates peg that the weekend will belong to Legendary/Warner Bros.’ Godzilla: King of the Monsters with around $55M at 4,100 locations. The lizard beast and friends will have all the strength of all 2D, 3D, Imax, Dolby Cinemas, PLF, Dine-Ins,  Drive-Ins and 4DX formats.

That's what I'm guessing. 55-60 OW

[keysersoze123]

24 hour update.Zilla should overtake John Wick in rollover 24 hour by noon PST as I expected yesterday. its still doing only half Aladdin looking at hourly. So its not coming close to Aladdin today. Probably not tomorrow as well though evenings should do way better than Aladdin. 

 

TS4 should hopefully hit 4K for opening 24 hours including fan event. But it has slowed down big time and so it will disappear from Top 20 tomorrow. We have to look at this in 2 weeks time when PS should amp up.

 

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	30.640%	20373	Aladdin (2019)
2	11.598%	7712	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	08.335%	5542	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
4	06.441%	4283	Avengers Endgame (2019)
5	06.268%	4168	Rocketman
6	05.489%	3650	Toy Story 4
7	04.934%	3281	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	04.333%	2881	Aladdin
9	04.110%	2733	Booksmart
10	03.864%	2569	Brightburn
11	02.639%	1755	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
12	01.851%	1231	Ma (2019)
13	01.206%	802	The Hustle (2019)
14	01.141%	759	A Dogs Journey
15	00.838%	557	Dark Phoenix
16	00.793%	527	The Intruder (2019)
17	00.668%	444	Long Shot
18	00.660%	439	The Secret Life of Pets 2
19	00.532%	354	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
20	00.402%	267	The Sun Is Also a Star
21	00.248%	165	UglyDolls
22	00.215%	143	Men in Black International
23	00.197%	131	Toy Story 4 Opening Night Fan Event

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

24 hour update.Zilla should overtake John Wick in rollover 24 hour by noon PST as I expected yesterday. its still doing only half Aladdin looking at hourly. So its not coming close to Aladdin today. Probably not tomorrow as well though evenings should do way better than Aladdin. 

 

TS4 should hopefully hit 4K for opening 24 hours including fan event. But it has slowed down big time and so it will disappear from Top 20 tomorrow. We have to look at this in 2 weeks time when PS should amp up.

 

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	30.640%	20373	Aladdin (2019)
2	11.598%	7712	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	08.335%	5542	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
4	06.441%	4283	Avengers Endgame (2019)
5	06.268%	4168	Rocketman
6	05.489%	3650	Toy Story 4
7	04.934%	3281	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	04.333%	2881	Aladdin
9	04.110%	2733	Booksmart
10	03.864%	2569	Brightburn
11	02.639%	1755	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
12	01.851%	1231	Ma (2019)
13	01.206%	802	The Hustle (2019)
14	01.141%	759	A Dogs Journey
15	00.838%	557	Dark Phoenix
16	00.793%	527	The Intruder (2019)
17	00.668%	444	Long Shot
18	00.660%	439	The Secret Life of Pets 2
19	00.532%	354	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
20	00.402%	267	The Sun Is Also a Star
21	00.248%	165	UglyDolls
22	00.215%	143	Men in Black International
23	00.197%	131	Toy Story 4 Opening Night Fan Event

Judging by hourly rate, do you see the potential impact of mixed RT score?

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

Judging by hourly rate, do you see the potential impact of mixed RT score?

There isn't. Pace is almost double yesterday which is an expected jump.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Judging by hourly rate, do you see the potential impact of mixed RT score?

I am skeptical that reviews are affecting the PS. Its more that Zilla 14 had bad WOM. So PS has been mediocre all along expect day 1 burst from limited fan base. China ratings are good but Korea WOM already is not good. its doing worse than Kong. So I will wait until friday to judge domestic WOM. That would be the biggest factor that affects its overall potential. But OW will be soft considering how big Zilla 14 was.

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am skeptical that reviews are affecting the PS. Its more that Zilla 14 had bad WOM. So PS has been mediocre all along expect day 1 burst from limited fan base. China ratings are good but Korea WOM already is not good. its doing worse than Kong. So I will wait until friday to judge domestic WOM. That would be the biggest factor that affects its overall potential. But OW will be soft considering how big Zilla 14 was.

Seriously i didn't expect the zila 14 will have any lasting impact on the sequel because although bad received but i doubt people take it seriously like other they treat the franchise such as SW, Marvel or DC.

 

It is a monster genre flick, people don't take plot or character too seriously..... 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Seriously i didn't expect the zila 14 will have any lasting impact on the sequel because although bad received but i doubt people take it seriously like other they treat the franchise such as SW, Marvel or DC.

 

It is a monster genre flick, people don't take plot or character too seriously..... 

Then it makes no sense why it is dropping so much from that movie. if you adjust Zilla 14 and add to it significant increase in capacity of Imax/PLF, its like 110m OW!!!!  It looks like at least dropping 40-50%.

[FlashMaster659]

Something to note about TS4 when comparing its first day Pulse number to I2 is that TS4's tickets were announced 3 hours later than I2, making TS4's number look even better.

[cdsacken]

15 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Seriously i didn't expect the zila 14 will have any lasting impact on the sequel because although bad received but i doubt people take it seriously like other they treat the franchise such as SW, Marvel or DC.

 

It is a monster genre flick, people don't take plot or character too seriously..... 

I think it's more so that people were let down by Zilla in 2014 so anticipation is lower. Less people are willing to give up $30 to see it.

[Justin4125]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Even after Endgame, pikachu, JW3 and aladdin, domestic box office is still looking at 400m+ behind last year at this point.

Clearly the market still have space to accommodate another breakout, the supposed February, march crowd are coming into this may and june window. 

 

I am confident Godzilla is going to demonstrate another monster flick's luck again

I mean the box office running behind was primarily due to some very weak early months. How much space there is in the market now is a different story. A weak Jan/Feb/March doesnt mean Godzilla in its current frame has a lot of breathing room, because it clearly doesnt. There are a lot of big wide releases hogging screens and more to come

 

I still have faith in KoTM, but to say that there is breathing room in the market right now because the overall BO is down y-o-y is to ignore how packed this May has been and the competition KoTM faces

[Mulder]

14 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-226 (+19), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final week

Dark Phoenix-95 (+5), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

SLoP2-5, 4 screenings (2 3D, 2 Regular)

Toy Story 4-35, 6 screenings listed, only 5 up for sale (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular) First day

 

Good recovery for KoTM today and Phoenix is edging closer to 100 tickets, should pass it by Thursday. Toy Story 4 also had a really good first day, passing Aladdin's first day at my theater. The showing not working for it btw is a 3D one so I doubt it's impacted it too much. In total today Godzilla sold 19 tickets, Phoenix sold 5, and Toy Story 4 sold 35.

First count of today, only thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-236 (+10), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Day

Dark Phoenix-104 (+9), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Toy Story 4-38 (+3), 6 screenings listed, only 5 up for sale (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular) Second day

 

Good start for Godzilla.

[FlashMaster659]

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 59/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 127/203

8:45 PM - 84/203

11:30 PM - 21/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 14/78

9:30 PM - 3/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 6/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 72/217

9:45 PM - 11/217

 

Total

 

338/1533 (22.0%)

[Minnale101]

Toy story 4 is gonna be hugeeeeeee

[john2000]

52 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 59/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 127/203

8:45 PM - 84/203

11:30 PM - 21/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 14/78

9:30 PM - 3/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 6/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 72/217

9:45 PM - 11/217

 

Total

 

338/1533 (22.0%)

is that good ?

[MagnarTheGreat]

On 5/29/2019 at 3:10 PM, Minnale101 said:

Toy story 4 is gonna be hugeeeeeee

 

Toy Story 4 (sequel to Toy Story 3, which did a $110.3M opening and $415M dom. total in 2010 dollars)

(wide range of opening scenarios * June Pixar dormant franchise sequel multipliers)

 

If Toy Story 4 performs like…
First Weekend	3.00	3.26 (Monsters University)	3.33 (Incredibles 2)	3.60 (Finding Dory)	3.76 (Toy Story 3)	4.00
$50.0M	$150.0M	$163.0M	$166.5M	$180.0M	$188.0M	$200.0M
$60.0M	$180.0M	$195.6M	$199.8M	$216.0M	$225.6M	$240.0M
$70.0M	$210.0M	$228.2M	$233.1M	$252.0M	$263.2M	$280.0M
$80.0M	$240.0M	$260.8M	$266.4M	$288.0M	$300.8M	$320.0M
$90.0M	$270.0M	$293.4M	$299.7M	$324.0M	$338.4M	$360.0M
$100.0M	$300.0M	$326.0M	$333.0M	$360.0M	$376.0M	$400.0M
$110.0M	$330.0M	$358.6M	$366.3M	$396.0M	$413.6M	$440.0M
$120.0M	$360.0M	$391.2M	$399.6M	$432.0M	$451.2M	$480.0M
$130.0M	$390.0M	$423.8M	$432.9M	$468.0M	$488.8M	$520.0M
$140.0M	$420.0M	$456.4M	$466.2M	$504.0M	$526.4M	$560.0M
$150.0M	$450.0M	$489.0M	$499.5M	$540.0M	$564.0M	$600.0M
$160.0M	$480.0M	$521.6M	$532.8M	$576.0M	$601.6M	$640.0M
$170.0M	$510.0M	$554.2M	$566.1M	$612.0M	$639.2M	$680.0M
$180.0M	$540.0M	$586.8M	$599.4M	$648.0M	$676.8M	$720.0M
$190.0M	$570.0M	$619.4M	$632.7M	$684.0M	$714.4M	$760.0M
$200.0M	$600.0M	$652.0M	$666.0M	$720.0M	$752.0M	$800.0M
$210.0M	$630.0M	$684.6M	$699.3M	$756.0M	$789.6M	$840.0M
$220.0M	$660.0M	$717.2M	$732.6M	$792.0M	$827.2M	$880.0M
$230.0M	$690.0M	$749.8M	$765.9M	$828.0M	$864.8M	$920.0M
$240.0M	$720.0M	$782.4M	$799.2M	$864.0M	$902.4M	$960.0M
$250.0M	$750.0M	$815.0M	$832.5M	$900.0M	$940.0M	$1000.0M

 

unadjusted wide sequel openings close to these highlighted in bold above:

 

 

Disney Pixar Movie	Opening	% change	Dom. Total	% change	Annual Ticket Price % Change
Monsters, Inc. (2001)	$62.6M		$255.9M
Monsters University (2013)	$82.4M	31.7%	$268.5M	4.9%	43.9%
Finding Nemo (2003)	$70.3M		$339.7M
Finding Dory (2016)	$135.1M	92.3%	$486.3M	43.1%	43.5%
The Incredibles (2004)	$70.5M		$261.4M
Incredibles 2 (2018)	$182.7M	159.3%	$608.6M	132.8%	46.7%
Toy Story 3 (2010)	$110.3M		$415.0M
Toy Story 4 (2019)*	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	~15.5%
* ticket price from 2018 used for 2019 from http://www.natoonline.org/data/ticket-price/

Edited May 30, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat
added TS3 to table; removed chart; added more to table; first entry openings

[FlashMaster659]

8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

is that good ?

Didn't track anything at that theater that could be a good comparison with TS4 but I'd say it's really great.

Edited May 29, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Krissykins]

I really hope both Ma and Rocketman do solid business this weekend. 

[AgentofMONARCH]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I really hope both Ma and Rocketman do solid business this weekend. 

Well here’s one rooting against Godzilla 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I really hope both Ma and Rocketman do solid business this weekend. 

 

5 minutes ago, AgentofMONARCH said:

Well here’s one rooting against Godzilla 

You can root for all three to do well, especially since all three are in wildly different genres.