The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

2 hours ago, Biggestgeekever said:

We'll see come Friday, but there might be something to that the animated comps suggesting under $150M are superhero films.

True but when looking at Disney family films with adult appeal/nostalgia like Incredibles 2 and Aladdin, sub $150M seems possible. But I suspect walkups should be better for TS4.

[john2000]

17 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

True but when looking at Disney family films with adult appeal/nostalgia like Incredibles 2 and Aladdin, sub $150M seems possible. But I suspect walkups should be better for TS4.

it also depends on the data you are looking at, but still of course 150 is possible, and of course 180 is possible, KEY WORD POSSIBLE,   it really comes down to its multi through the weekend

Edited June 18, 2019 by john2000

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

3 hours ago, a2k said:

i thought anna was short for annabelle3

that's why felt the presales were crap. just checked it's a different movie. 

LOL. Annabelle Comes Home is doing on the OD what this other Anna is doing in the whole OW.

[filmlover]

Both Child's Play and Anna will be added to the rapidly growing list of nonstarter openers this year. I'm completely at a loss as to why the former is opening just a few days before Annabelle unless they thought the gimmick of opening against Toy Story (the poster campaign for the movie has Chucky killing Toy Story characters lol) was too good to pass up on.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

True but when looking at Disney family films with adult appeal/nostalgia like Incredibles 2 and Aladdin, sub $150M seems possible. But I suspect walkups should be better for TS4.

In @Porthos comp data it's so far looking to double Aladdin previews and is pacing along side JW:FK.  So $14-15.3m in previews.  

Aladdin had a 13x - with a Sunday drop around 25% it would be around 12x.  I2 was just under 10x.  If TS4 with $14m previews splits the difference with an 11x that would mean $154m

 

Fandango as of now looks to be pointing lower but I2's Mon to Wed (20,872/ 23,430/ 39,337) increase was just 1.88%  It may have been held back by ticket counting quotas be they 4k or 6k but here are some other Mon to Wed increases. 

 

Aladdin: 213%

Dumbo: 299%

Dragon 3: 347%

CR: 342%

SLOP2: 247%

LEGO2: 336%

Trans 3: 376%

JW:FK: 250%

[Damianport1]

So how the presales of TS4 compare to these I2 ones? How much smaller are they. And what number I2 did on thursday?

Edited June 18, 2019 by Damianport1

[Menor the Destroyer]

51 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

In @Porthos comp data it's so far looking to double Aladdin previews and is pacing along side JW:FK.  So $14-15.3m in previews.  

Aladdin had a 13x - with a Sunday drop around 25% it would be around 12x.  I2 was just under 10x.  If TS4 with $14m previews splits the difference with an 11x that would mean $154m

 

Fandango as of now looks to be pointing lower but I2's Mon to Wed (20,872/ 23,430/ 39,337) increase was just 1.88%  It may have been held back by ticket counting quotas be they 4k or 6k but here are some other Mon to Wed increases. 

 

Aladdin: 213%

Dumbo: 299%

Dragon 3: 347%

CR: 342%

SLOP2: 247%

LEGO2: 336%

Trans 3: 376%

JW:FK: 250%

I2 presales were way higher than those others. It's harder to get a big percentage increase when you're already selling so much

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

I2 presales were way higher than those others. It's harder to get a big percentage increase when you're already selling so much

I know, the point being are the pre-sales for TS4 as front loaded or will  it pick up the pace like the other comps.  I don't expect a huge Thur jump and bigger walk ups than ID2 unless it also jumps significantly higher on Tues & Wed.

[keysersoze123]

TS4 has to have better PS to BO ratio but PS in increasing every year and so it may be a wash. But I am more optimistic about 150m OW bcos of Wang's update. I hope we get another update by thursday.

 

Spidey is selling less than half the number that Cap Marvel did at similar point. Since Social Media reactions are out tomorrow it should see a burst. Can it catch and exceed the Cap Marvel rates. when was Social Media/Reviews released for Cap Marvel?

[cdsacken]

Not it can't catch or exceed rates. It's a 6 day opening. A sense of urgency is not needed.

[narniadis]

Those of us in the not 400m camp for Spidey will be glad when it opens and the hand wringing can stop. 

 

I would say the same for TS4 but this forum is skewed in their view of it winning or losing. 

Just seems like we have had tons of anxiety over presales since End game toasted everything.  

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, Porthos said:

Unless show times expand quite a bit, and there's no demand to do that at the moment, it's probably not hitting 5m midnight, never mind 10m.

 

I think if every last seat sold out in Sacto it'd be looking like around 5m to 6m.  Maybe.  

 

I mentioned it before, but I'll mention it again. This isn't being shown like a traditional midnight of days gone by (with showings at midnight, 1am, 2am on most if not all of the screens).  This is playing much more like a limited engagement or an early access type deal.  At least when it comes to number of showtimes per theater as well as number of theaters participating.

 

Heck, only about a third of the theaters locally that have FFH currently have midnight showings (7 out of 20). 

 

Just need to ratchet down the expectations and be happy/surprised if it does play more like a midnight of ye olden days.

If it happens, it wont be a surprise,we will see a huge spurt in showtimes like good old days.

 

We dont have too many movies with big midnights threads in this forum. You have to go back to 2012 and look at Avengers and Dark Knight Rises. They had insane number of shows. In fact in most big Plexes TDKR was playing in almost all the screens.

 

I think mega BB like SW7 and endgame had insane amount of shows after midnights as well but its not the same as starting at midnight.

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Not it can't catch or exceed rates. It's a 6 day opening. A sense of urgency is not needed.

if it sells way fewer tickets before release than CM then its not going to have great 6 day gross. Its after all another SH movie and sequel to a blockbuster and 1st MCU movie since Endgame. It will show some amount of frontloading for sure.

[Menor the Destroyer]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

TS4 has to have better PS to BO ratio but PS in increasing every year and so it may be a wash. But I am more optimistic about 150m OW bcos of Wang's update. I hope we get another update by thursday.

 

Spidey is selling less than half the number that Cap Marvel did at similar point. Since Social Media reactions are out tomorrow it should see a burst. Can it catch and exceed the Cap Marvel rates. when was Social Media/Reviews released for Cap Marvel?

Two days before the equivalent to today, I think.

[TalismanRing]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

TS4 has to have better PS to BO ratio but PS in increasing every year and so it may be a wash. But I am more optimistic about 150m OW bcos of Wang's update. I hope we get another update by thursday.

 

Spidey is selling less than half the number that Cap Marvel did at similar point. Since Social Media reactions are out tomorrow it should see a burst. Can it catch and exceed the Cap Marvel rates. when was Social Media/Reviews released for Cap Marvel?

Agreed that social media reaction should give  aboost - the better they are the bigger the boost.

 

But it doesn't need to exceed or even catch the CM rates to out open it  -  though how one compares 6 days + Midnights in the summer to 3 1/2 days in the Spring is beyond me.

 

CM was a bit more pre-sale heavy than other Marvel openers of that size.  Most likely 1)  b/c the 2 month sale period was so long 2) there wasn't a lot of competition for ticket sales during that time period and 3) women skewed/targeted films tend to have a bit higher pre-buy rate (see B&B & WW)

 

SMHC and WW were reportedly running neck & neck in pre-sales at a certain chain until Thur night when SM's previews wound up 40% higher - while it's overall w/e wound up 13.5% bigger.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

Two days before the equivalent to today, I think.

Sorry. wasn't monday like T-15 day. Equivalent day for CM is Feb 20th(Day 1 is Mar 8th).

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Agreed that social media reaction should give  aboost - the better they are the bigger the boost.

 

But it doesn't need to exceed or even catch the CM rates to out open it  -  though how one compares 6 days + Midnights in the summer to 3 1/2 days in the Spring is beyond me.

 

CM was a bit more pre-sale heavy than other Marvel openers of that size.  Most likely 1)  b/c the 2 month sale period was so long 2) there wasn't a lot of competition for ticket sales during that time period and 3) women skewed/targeted films tend to have a bit higher pre-buy rate (see B&B & WW)

 

SMHC and WW were reportedly running neck & neck in pre-sales at a certain chain until Thur night when SM's previews wound up 40% higher - while it's overall w/e wound up 13.5% bigger.

Based on final Wang update didn't CM open very similar to BP when you compare PS to OW. Final update looked like 150m OW. So was it so different?

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

Agreed that social media reaction should give  aboost - the better they are the bigger the boost.

 

But it doesn't need to exceed or even catch the CM rates to out open it  -  though how one compares 6 days + Midnights in the summer to 3 1/2 days in the Spring is beyond me.

 

CM was a bit more pre-sale heavy than other Marvel openers of that size.  Most likely 1)  b/c the 2 month sale period was so long 2) there wasn't a lot of competition for ticket sales during that time period and 3) women skewed/targeted films tend to have a bit higher pre-buy rate (see B&B & WW)

 

SMHC and WW were reportedly running neck & neck in pre-sales at a certain chain until Thur night when SM's previews wound up 40% higher - while it's overall w/e wound up 13.5% bigger.

Yup, CM was super presale heavy and especially so on Fandango. Its Pulse sales for previews were actually higher than BP, and for FSS was much closer than actual numbers ended up being. Meanwhile Spidey is a summer opener which Charlie has said (and it makes sense to me) are much more walkup based, and it's a 6-day opener which makes demand more spread out, and it doesn't have previews which are a massive part of presales. And to illustrate the point about summer, take Homecoming which had way lower pure Friday presales than CM but wasn't that far off in actuals, or Ant-Man and the Wasp which had huge increases on the day of in Porthos' data. Actually if we compare FFH presales to Ant-Man and the Wasp one week before release, it's already more than double that, by the time it gets to one week before release it may even be 3.5x what that movie had. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sorry. wasn't monday like T-15 day. Equivalent day for CM is Feb 20th(Day 1 is Mar 8th).

February 19th was when CM had it's social media reactions released.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

February 19th was when CM had it's social media reactions released.

Hah ok. So it got a boost on 20th bcos of that. Makes sense. So let us wait for few days to compare equivalent sales.