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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hah ok. So it got a boost on 20th bcos of that. Makes sense. So let us wait for few days to compare equivalent sales.

Yeah FFH will still be below no doubt, but yesterday's margin is inflated for CM.

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39 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Those of us in the not 400m camp for Spidey will be glad when it opens and the hand wringing can stop. 

 

I would say the same for TS4 but this forum is skewed in their view of it winning or losing. 

Just seems like we have had tons of anxiety over presales since End game toasted everything.  

Pathetic to cheer for a random movies failure when surrounded by people who like box office numbers.. 

 

TTVOMJ

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59 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Those of us in the not 400m camp for Spidey will be glad when it opens and the hand wringing can stop. 

 

I would say the same for TS4 but this forum is skewed in their view of it winning or losing. 

Just seems like we have had tons of anxiety over presales since End game toasted everything.  

Im also secretly in this Camp. But we can't be too vocal.

 

I don't know where this mythical bump is supposed to come from. (Don't see an End Game Bump, Sorry)

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23 minutes ago, Maximum Avery said:

Pathetic to cheer for a random movies failure when surrounded by people who like box office numbers.. 

 

TTVOMJ

Must be great to be king of assumptions lol. Most would say that cheering for a films failure is highly unlike me, but that comes with a long time of box office tracking and wanting the best  gross possible.  400m for Spiderman is setting it up for failure based on the past behavior of the franchise. Presales and long opening week included in that as well. 

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Opening over the third is already a win for TS4! Do not forget that a couple of months ago most here were expecting a huge drop DOM. Even one club pointed an under 250M DOM was possible.

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Posted (edited)

The 2 things I am interested in for this upcoming weekend.

First, does TS4 open over 150M. Obviously the reviews are going to be incredibly strong - it's at 115 reviews on RT with 100% Fresh and well over 8 avg rating.

So as GA reads their newspapers and blogs they will see reviews that are all highly positive.

 

Will the WOM be anywhere near as strong as the reviews are so far? If it does end up being that positive then the legs are going to be really strong and the walk-up business like we saw with Aladdin over MD weekend should be good. Anything over 150 would bring 500M DOM into play.

 

Second, how do the 2-3-4 spots play out this weekend. 

It feels like MIB, SLOP2, and Aladdin should all be around 11M +-1. MIB is likely to have a 60%+ fall due to reviews and WOM.

SLOP2 is going to take a big hit this week. At the 2 theaters closest to me it is going from 3 screens to 1 so its upside potential is really being cut. I feel like it could see a 55% drop.

Aladdin should hold the best of any movie in the top 10 and i assume will get double features with TS4 in drive-ins as they seem like a perfect match.

 

Just as an FYI, at the 2 theaters closest to me all the Aladdin showings for today are basically sellouts already. One had a 9:45 am showing that was 3/4 full when I checked at 8 am.

Edited by RamblinRed

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Must be great to be king of assumptions lol. Most would say that cheering for a films failure is highly unlike me, but that comes with a long time of box office tracking and wanting the best  gross possible.  400m for Spiderman is setting it up for failure based on the past behavior of the franchise. Presales and long opening week included in that as well. 

If you are not cheering for it to fail then i was wrong and i apologize.. also.. i started tracking box office on my automatic phone each tuesday back in 1995.. so i have exp dont worry xD experience when it comes to box office dont mean much(i aint a prophet)... all my experience has only led me on so far.. and its just a hunch... then life introduces you to places like bom, bop, the-numbers, different analysis, deadline.. then people like asgardians, deep wang, menor, porthos and most of the people here show up..sorry if i forgot to mention any of the bot pillars.. then you realize it all adds up bit by bit, but never a full picture.. just that hunch getting smoother.. but there is always that itch.. and even tho i never expected ffh to reach 400m and i still dont, going just by ps is a nono.. why? Experience tells me so...not alot of 6 day comps/2019 summer LOL can swing both ways/ EG halo/ BIG live action draught might cause thirst?/ tom holand zendaya shipping-twittersphere/ some sequel bump/clues to bigger MCU picture... so that is why based on my experience i think you should update yours^^ but just up to a hunch.. you can still have it your ways.. i am in no way positive about this because my _true_ barometar is how much i want to see a film..compare this to endgame? A joke

 

TTVOMJ

Edited by Maximum Avery
Context

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2 hours ago, stripe said:

Opening over the third is already a win for TS4! Do not forget that a couple of months ago most here were expecting a huge drop DOM. Even one club pointed an under 250M DOM was possible.

Lol, that was never ever possible. People were delusional to believe the franchise could go that low outside of a truly toxic Shrek 3 quality film, but when has Pixar ever been received that poorly? 350 was always locked, 400 as long as it was at least good. 

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Posted (edited)

Just as a general reminder, but when it comes to using my local comps Aladdin hella over-performed locally.  By about 1m when all was said and done, IIRC (it was pointing to an 8m Thr on some comps instead of the actual 7m).  It doesn't matter for last night's comps, as it seems to still be more or less on track.  But when it comes to the final number I put out, just don't be surprised if TS4 isn't 2x Aladdin locally when all is said and done.

 

In fact, as I look at the number of tickets sold required to hit 2x Aladdin at final bell, I'd be fairly shocked if TS4 did hit it locally.  

Edited by Porthos
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3 hours ago, jj99 said:

Im also secretly in this Camp. But we can't be too vocal.

 

I don't know where this mythical bump is supposed to come from. (Don't see an End Game Bump, Sorry)

How is that a "mythical" bump though? Historically, every MCU sequel with an Avengers movie in between has seen a sizable bump. This one has an even more direct connection to said Avengers movie.

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12 minutes ago, Menor said:

How is that a "mythical" bump though? Historically, every MCU sequel with an Avengers movie in between has seen a sizable bump. This one has an even more direct connection to said Avengers movie.

Ant-man and Wasp?

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4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-man and Wasp?

Even that one increased by 36 million, and was in Civil War which is not comparable in size to Endgame

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Posted (edited)

Thursday june 20 london ontario Canada

Toy Story 4


Silvercity

6 shows 3 screens ( 1 AVX, 1 IMAX, 1 Recliner)

AVX
600 30/135(+11)
840 18/135 (+2)

IMAX
7PM 35/321(+5)
940 9/321(+2)

Recliner
630 11/111(+0)
910 0/111

Westmount

4 shows 2 screens (1 VIP 1 AVX)

VIP
630 3/63(+0)
930 7/63 (+0)
AVX 
645 41/173(+0)
925 0/173

 

They may not seem like alot but these are good numbers for thurs previews up here. Continuing to slowly build

Edited by Tinalera
Clarified country
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Posted (edited)

Nice pick-up in presales in London , CAN ...  :) 

Edited by Sunny Max
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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 146/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 164/203

8:45 PM - 165/203

11:30 PM - 69/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 51/78

9:30 PM - 24/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 34/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 157/217

9:45 PM - 79/217

 

Total

 

889(+80)/1533 (58.0%)

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 151/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 166/203

8:45 PM - 170/203

11:30 PM - 79/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 51/78

8:30 PM NEW - 11/60

9:30 PM - 29/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 34/167

8:15 PM NEW - 2/79

10:45 PM - 0/167

11:15 PM NEW - 2/55

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM NEW - 38/63

7:30 PM NEW - 30/63

9:00 PM NEW - 6/63

10:30 PM NEW - 6/63

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 162/217

8:00 PM NEW - 20/167

9:45 PM - 109/217

11:00 PM NEW - 0/167

 

Total

 

1066(+177)/2313(+780) (46.1%)

Edited by FlashMaster659
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16 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Thursday june 20 london ontario

Toy Story 4


Silvercity

6 shows 3 screens ( 1 AVX, 1 IMAX, 1 Recliner)

AVX
600 30/135(+11)
840 18/135 (+2)

IMAX
7PM 35/321(+5)
940 9/321(+2)

Recliner
630 11/111(+0)
910 0/111

Westmount

4 shows 2 screens (1 VIP 1 AVX)

VIP
630 3/63(+0)
930 7/63 (+0)
AVX 
645 41/173(+0)
925 0/173

 

They may not seem like alot but these are good numbers for thurs previews up here. Continuing to slowly build

But these are number from London theater so you are talking about international box office right now

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Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 151/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 166/203

8:45 PM - 170/203

11:30 PM - 79/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 51/78

8:30 PM NEW - 11/60

9:30 PM - 29/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 34/167

8:15 PM NEW - 2/79

10:45 PM - 0/167

11:15 PM NEW - 2/55

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM NEW - 38/63

7:30 PM NEW - 30/63

9:00 PM NEW - 6/63

10:30 PM NEW - 6/63

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 162/217

8:00 PM NEW - 20/167

9:45 PM - 109/217

11:00 PM NEW - 0/167

 

Total

 

1066(+177)/2313(+780) (46.1%)

Good pickup in presales .... 

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1 minute ago, Damianport1 said:

But these are number from London theater so you are talking about international box office right now

London, Ontario is in Canada so it is in fact domestic, unless you were just making a joke about the name similarity.

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1 minute ago, Damianport1 said:

There is a London in Canada too?

Yup. There's also a Paris, Texas, and many other European city names in North America

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