The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Incredibles 2 notwithstanding, folks do realize we ain't talking about a Comic Book Movie or a four-quad tentpole, right?  That 150m OW might be the 'expectation' should cause folks to actually step back a bit and look at the historical record when it comes to films like this.

[john2000]

proof is that the legs are what matter here, it doesnt matter if  ts4 opens with 140 but in the end it challenged 500 dom

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'm actually optimistic and thinking this could challenge 250 for the 6-day, but I will caution about the presales, we really don't have that much of an idea of how to comp them. So I  wouldn't put too much stock into them, especially this far out.

agreed , in more hypothetical arguements with 250 six day the movie could challenge 450-500 

 

PS i would believe more ffh presales than ts4 at this point, as animated movie are known to be very leggy from their ow to their total. while superhero movies are more predictable i would say

Edited June 18, 2019 by john2000

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How on earth can a movie BO be adjusted downward. Did ticket prices go down !!!! or is it bcos canadian $ is worth less now?

Adj can be a little wonky, especially during the middle of the year.  

 

Right now BOM reckons that the avg ticket price is $9.01.  The figure it uses for 2018 is  $9.11.

 

Best not to worry too much when things are this deep in the weeds and only on a partial basis for a year.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Hard to say how much Iron Man actually boosted the last one. I don't think that many people who weren't already interested would have seen it just due to RDJ having some scenes. It's not like it was an Iron Man solo movie.

we will know for sure in 2 weeks.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, john2000 said:

agreed , in more hypothetical arguements with 250 six day the movie could challenge 450-500 ?

With 250 6-day, 450+ is almost locked, 500+ quite possible. To get to that 250 I'm hoping for a 50 million OD. This seems to be possible from presales so far, especially considering FFH should get a bump tomorrow. However, again it's difficult to interpret this exactly.

[john2000]

Just now, Menor said:

With 250 6-day, 450+ is almost locked, 500+ quite possible. To get to that 250 I'm hoping for a 50 million OD. This seems to be possible from presales so far, especially considering FFH should get a bump tomorrow. However, again it's difficult to interpret this exactly.

ready my edited comment if you will

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

based from pre sales we are looking at 200-225, for six 6 as of now, i dont see how it doesnt not make 400 dom , even with lion king

how is that possible when it has weaker PS than Cap Marvel. That did not gross 200m in 6 days. Anyway we will know in 2 weeks.

[john2000]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

how is that possible when it has weaker PS than Cap Marvel. That did not gross 200m in 6 days. Anyway we will know in 2 weeks.

ask menor

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, john2000 said:

ready my edited comment if you will

Agreed that superhero movie PS in general is more predictive. But FFH is a very unique situation with the 6-day. That's what makes the PS pattern so weird and consequently the opening more unpredictable.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Adj can be a little wonky, especially during the middle of the year.  

 

Right now BOM reckons that the avg ticket price is $9.01.  The figure it uses for 2018 is  $9.11.

 

Best not to worry too much when things are this deep in the weeds and only on a partial basis for a year.

I agree. BOM's adjusted numbers are crap. it benefits 3d and large format movies. I wish we reported admissions like majority of markets.

[john2000]

Just now, Menor said:

Agreed that superhero movie PS in general is more predictive. But FFH is a very unique situation with the 6-day. That's what makes the PS pattern so weird and consequently the opening more unpredictable.

oh i agree, my point was that ts4 and excuse me for that , its fucking difficult to predict, we have a range for previews and ow, but every day it changes and there are many comparisons, at least with superhero movies, like say captain marvel  we knw that ow was around 150 for sure and our projections were more steady

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

ask menor

It was Charlie who made the 200-225 million (I think it was 210-227 million exactly) yesterday. I made a similar prediction early in the morning but after looking at the presales more closely I realized I can't really predict based on that, at least not yet. His method was to extrapolate OD presales to estimate the size of OD, then calculate the drops based on historical comps.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Menor

[Sunny Max]

10 minutes ago, john2000 said:

based from pre sales we are looking at 200-225, for six 6 as of now, i dont see how it doesnt not make 400 dom , even with lion king

$400 M minimum with that kind of OW ... you are right 

[keysersoze123]

Another movie I would compare to would be Guardians 2. 1st movie was the leggiest MCU movie and so we had 450m+ predicts for 2nd one. That had a big OW increase but total increase was lot lower. It was not a movie with bigger scale like how Cap America movies were. 2nd sequel added Shield(+ Black Widow + Falcon) and 3rd one was a Avengers movie.

 

Here to me its scaled down as they replaced Iron Man with Happy Hogan and Fury !!!!

[john2000]

Just now, Menor said:

It was Charlie who made the 200-225 million (I think it was 210-227 million exactly) yesterday. I made a similar prediction early in the morning but after looking at the presales I can't really predict based on that, at least not yet. His method was to extrapolate OD presales to estimate the size of OD, then calculate the drops based on historical comps.

this is why i have a bigger range that covers both the predictions so far

[john2000]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Another movie I would compare to would be Guardians 2. 1st movie was the leggiest MCU movie and so we had 450m+ predicts for 2nd one. That had a big OW increase but total increase was lot lower. It was not a movie with bigger scale like how Cap America movies were. 2nd sequel added Shield(+ Black Widow + Falcon) and 3rd one was a Avengers movie.

 

Here to me its scaled down as they replaced Iron Man with Happy Hogan and Fury !!!!

the difference is that guardians 1 had a 3,4 multi and released in august , while guardians 2 on the other hand 

 

PS the most i had hear back then was captain marvel numbers at lest for dom

Edited June 18, 2019 by john2000

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Another movie I would compare to would be Guardians 2. 1st movie was the leggiest MCU movie and so we had 450m+ predicts for 2nd one. That had a big OW increase but total increase was lot lower. It was not a movie with bigger scale like how Cap America movies were. 2nd sequel added Shield(+ Black Widow + Falcon) and 3rd one was a Avengers movie.

 

Here to me its scaled down as they replaced Iron Man with Happy Hogan and Fury !!!!

Imo, FFH is scaled up. Multiverse talk, bigger scale villains (Elemental creatures), geographically more expansive, a lot more action seemingly, and Endgame connection. Homecoming was a more small-scale story even with Iron Man.

[john2000]

guys anyway lets end this, now, the movie will come this week and we will know, and if the ww opening is indeed looking at 260,(without all of its territorys many of them are major),then we are in for a ride

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

It was Charlie who made the 200-225 million (I think it was 210-227 million exactly) yesterday. I made a similar prediction early in the morning but after looking at the presales more closely I realized I can't really predict based on that, at least not yet. His method was to extrapolate OD presales to estimate the size of OD, then calculate the drops based on historical comps.

That was driven by how much the PS is OD driven. but based on dailies I expect Cap Marvel OD to go ahead of it in a week or so. That was selling at much bigger rate.

 

Unless after Social reaction we see it come close in dailies. I will not rule it out.

 

Last 2 weeks of OD PS for Cap Marvel went like below. Very hard act to follow.

 

Spoiler

959	2019-02-20
732	2019-02-21
575	2019-02-22
439	2019-02-23
917	2019-02-24
1468	2019-02-25
1944	2019-02-26
2274	2019-02-27
2331	2019-02-28
1769	2019-03-01
1491	2019-03-02
3769	2019-03-03
8373	2019-03-04
9349	2019-03-05
12695	2019-03-06
14255	2019-03-07
34935	2019-03-08
806	2019-03-09