The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cax16]

Haven’t bothered reporting TS4 preview night cause it’s only sold 50 tickets across  4 showtimes, if things pick up over the next few days I’ll add it here but so far the sales haven’t been anything great at my theatre. I also looked around at the two other VIP/Imax theatres closest to my place and sales are a bit better there but not much. Obviously this is gonna be very walk up heavy here. 

 

 

[Maximum Avery]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

we will know for sure in 2 weeks.

How on earth will you know something unquantifiable like this _for sure_?xD

 

TTVOMJ

[Justin4125]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Less than 150m is a disappointment. Amazing reviews and empty market gives it no excuse 

I would push back against that. Box office pro first pegged it at 113m and first tracking numbers were 115 - 130m. Between a lack of a father's day boost (which Dory and I2 both benefited a bit from) and lower unaided interest for TS4 than both I2 and Dory (I think BOP also cited the whole "older fans felt TS3 was the perfect conclusion") TS4 has always had a bit of an uphill challenge.

 

Also about the reviews. I am always wary of the impact of great reviews on OW expectations and even more so for this particular franchise. The Toy Story franchise has always been buoyed by top level reviews and I think it all becomes relative after a while. I feel that bad reviews could have dropped this film quickly, but I dont think amazing reviews propel it much further upwards. Perfect reviews are almost expected of the franchise, and perhaps anything less (currently sitting at a 98%) may make the film seem a "lesser" Toy Story film. In any case, the franchise set the bar dangerously high

 

OW numbers always get pumped up so quickly following positive reviews and one or two good presale days. If you accept that reviews may not have the biggest impact for this franchise. and that there are some legitimate factors working against it, I think 150m is too high bar for disappointment. Under 130m we'll see, but we're talking a big increase from TS3 which itself had everything going for it

[john2000]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

That was driven by how much the PS is OD driven. but based on dailies I expect Cap Marvel OD to go ahead of it in a week or so. That was selling at much bigger rate.

 

Unless after Social reaction we see it come close in dailies. I will not rule it out.

 

Last 2 weeks of OD PS for Cap Marvel went like below. Very hard act to follow.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

959	2019-02-20
732	2019-02-21
575	2019-02-22
439	2019-02-23
917	2019-02-24
1468	2019-02-25
1944	2019-02-26
2274	2019-02-27
2331	2019-02-28
1769	2019-03-01
1491	2019-03-02
3769	2019-03-03
8373	2019-03-04
9349	2019-03-05
12695	2019-03-06
14255	2019-03-07
34935	2019-03-08
806	2019-03-09

 

depends on the date you are looking, and how you make calculations, so many people here will have different results

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

the difference is that guardians 1 had a 3,4 multi and released in august , while guardians 2 on the other hand 

 

PS the most i had hear back then was captain marvel numbers at lest for dom

I am sure there was a 450m club for Guardians 2. Let me search for it.

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

guys anyway lets end this, now, the movie will come this week and we will know, and if the ww opening is indeed looking at 260,(without all of its territorys many of them are major),then we are in for a ride

Absolutely .........  

[john2000]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I am sure there was a 450m club for Guardians 2. Let me search for it.

oh i didnt say that you wont find any, i said what i saw from most of people back then

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That was driven by how much the PS is OD driven. but based on dailies I expect Cap Marvel OD to go ahead of it in a week or so. That was selling at much bigger rate.

 

Unless after Social reaction we see it come close in dailies. I will not rule it out.

 

Last 2 weeks of OD PS for Cap Marvel went like below. Very hard act to follow.

 

  Hide contents

959	2019-02-20
732	2019-02-21
575	2019-02-22
439	2019-02-23
917	2019-02-24
1468	2019-02-25
1944	2019-02-26
2274	2019-02-27
2331	2019-02-28
1769	2019-03-01
1491	2019-03-02
3769	2019-03-03
8373	2019-03-04
9349	2019-03-05
12695	2019-03-06
14255	2019-03-07
34935	2019-03-08
806	2019-03-09

 

Yesterday FFH added about 800 for OD. Not that far behind. With reactions tomorrow, I expect it to jump back ahead and remain there for the rest of the run. It's the rest of the opening (esp. Thursday vs midnight) that causes the huge gap between CM and FFH daily presales.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

depends on the date you are looking, and how you make calculations, so many people here will have different results

I am just looking at OD PS for Cap Marvel(Mar 😎 with OD of Spidey(Jul 2nd). That is the only positive number for Spidey as otherwise they are not in the same ballpark. including today there are 2 weeks to OD for Spidey and so I am doing day by day comparison. What is the other way of looking at the number/

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yesterday FFH added about 800 for OD. Not that far behind. With reactions tomorrow, I expect it to jump back ahead and remain there for the rest of the run. It's the rest of the opening (esp. Thursday vs midnight) that causes the huge gap between CM and FFH daily presales.

it totally added only 1300. So 60% of PS is for OD. That is extremely front loaded. Cap Marvel was less than 3rd if I am not wrong.

[Legion Again]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How on earth can a movie BO be adjusted downward. Did ticket prices go down !!!! or is it bcos canadian $ is worth less now?

 

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Adj can be a little wonky, especially during the middle of the year.  

 

Right now BOM reckons that the avg ticket price is $9.01.  The figure it uses for 2018 is  $9.11.

 

Best not to worry too much when things are this deep in the weeds and only on a partial basis for a year.

A brief explainer on the BOM adjusting tool:   

Average ticket prices are tracked by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization  National Association of Theater Owners on a quarterly basis. Every year they release the Q1 average price, Q2 average price, Q3 average price, and Q4 average price, which combine via a weighted average into the yearly average ticket price.     

 

Given a target year, the BOM tool adjusts each day from the ATP of that day’s quarter, to the ticket price of the target year. Since there is only Q1 data for 2019, using 2019 as the target year sends things to the Q1 2019 ATP, which was lower than the 2018 Q2 ATP where I2 opened.     

 

Adjusting e.g homecoming into “2019” will give a different result now vs after the Q2 2019 report is released vs after the Q3 report vs after the Q4/yearly report is released — but once that happens the 2019 ticket priced will be locked in and using it will be stable.   

 

Imo the tool shouldn’t even let you use the current year as a target for this reason, and it almost always makes the most sense to use the most recent fully completed year if you’re trying to adjust to “current day.”

Edited June 18, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

it totally added only 1300. So 60% of PS is for OD. That is extremely front loaded. Cap Marvel was less than 3rd if I am not wrong.

1415 was the total number. Going back through I believe was more like 650 for OD yesterday, was about 20700 yesterday morning and 21350 this morning. Still, that's a low enough margin that social should boost it above. Still massively frontloaded PS though, as you said CM was a much smaller ratio. I think some of that is because CM had those highly PS loaded previews though.

[keysersoze123]

I think I will quit now.

 

Looking at rolling 24 hour numbers TS4 and Spidey are trending down from yesterday. I guess Discount Tuesday effects future PS. That should change by late evening.

 

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	19.044%	13178	Toy Story 4
2	15.112%	10457	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	11.992%	8298	Aladdin (2019)
4	11.527%	7976	Men in Black International
5	05.323%	3683	Rocketman
6	05.299%	3667	Dark Phoenix
7	04.552%	3150	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
8	04.346%	3007	Shaft (2019)
9	04.002%	2769	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
10	02.952%	2043	Late Night (2019)
11	02.782%	1925	Avengers Endgame (2019)
12	02.351%	1627	Ma (2019)
13	01.759%	1217	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
14	01.241%	859	The Dead Dont Die
15	01.140%	789	Childs Play (2019)
16	00.978%	677	Emanuel
17	00.936%	648	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
18	00.546%	378	Booksmart
19	00.545%	377	Men in Black International –
20	00.240%	166	Spider-Man Far From Home  (2019)

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I guess Discount Tuesday affects future PS.

This makes sense.

 

As @Porthos has mentioned, Pulse is a subset of sales. Since the BO on a Tuesday is higher (and the sales even higher), then it makes sense the future movies would have a smaller potential portion. Not saying that they can't increase, but in an ideal world they would have a bigger increase.

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, Maximum Avery said:

How on earth will you know something unquantifiable like this _for sure_?xD

 

TTVOMJ

If it has only small boost from homecoming, I think it would be ok to conclude the lack of IM had an impact. if it opens like what @Menor is saying, I would say there was no impact.

 

[keysersoze123]

@Menor I am assuming Reporting page combines all formats.

 

So T-14 OD

 

Spidey - 21840 and counting

CM - 21341

 

 

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by keysersoze123

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If it has only small boost from homecoming, I think it would be ok to conclude the lack of IM had an impact. if it opens like what @Menor is saying, I would say there was no impact.

 

I wouldn't say that.  Iron Man had a definite impact on SM:HC as did his inclusion in CW.  But it was also well reviewed and well received so it could build on that positive reception while also continuing to pull in more possible audience from appearances in AIW and AEG and it's very much being treated as a direct sequel (including his relationship with Tony).

[cdsacken]

Jesus Aladdin was #1 in PTA for Monday. Crazytown

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I wouldn't say that.  Iron Man had a definite impact on SM:HC as did his inclusion in CW.  But it was also well reviewed and well received so it could build on that positive reception while also continuing to pull in more possible audience from appearances in AIW and AEG and it's very much being treated as a direct sequel (including his relationship with Tony).

I meant him missing in far from home had little impact or was superseded by even bigger endgame boost.

[Maximum Avery]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If it has only small boost from homecoming, I think it would be ok to conclude the lack of IM had an impact. if it opens like what @Menor is saying, I would say there was no impact.

 

I disagree and to picture it i can safely say i forgot what was the argument xD so much for epic IM impact.. but that is beside the point.. these are just opinions.. whatever the numbers end up being so much has happened since then that its hard to clearly call IM having any impact at all..my opinion and your opinion are only opinions BECAUSE these things are unquantifiable...and are accidentaly opposite ends of the spectrum.. if they were facts sure np..but you said _for sure_ which just didnt sit well with me^^ i am sure you meant the same(high probability or something), but just wasnt thinking too much about it:)

 

TTVOMJ