The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

Toy Story 4 (2 before previews, 3 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

6/20/19

 

6:00 - 88/301 - UltraScreen 

7:00 - 0/147 

8:00 - 4/138

8:45 - 60/301 - UltraScreen 

9:45 - 5/146

10:00 - 22/119

10:45 - 0/138 

11:30 - 0/301

 

Running:

206% of Aladdin ($188.5M OW)

511% of Christopher Robin ($125.6M OW)

511% of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ($224.8M OW)

398% Of Coco ($202.1M OW)

 

All signs seem likely for a $150M+ OW on my end, though the CR comp gives me pause. Thinking $140M-$170M OW (#dhdrange)

[MattW]

My guess with everything so far is Toy Story will land right around Dory, 130-140m.

And for Far From Home I don't think presales look promising at all.  I expect it'll perform very similarly to Homecoming, 150-ish for the 6 days, low 300s total.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I wish deadline did not continue to sprout this 200m bullshit. I dont see how that is possible looking at the PS.

If you take Dory pre-sales in account, and not Incredibles 2, $200mn can be done.

In a certain matric, Dory was $6mn and did $45.5mn True Friday i.e. 7.6x, while Incredibles 2 was $11mn and did $52.76mn i.e. 4.8x.

 

Toy Story 4, from pre-sales seems like will be around $7.5-8.5mn in that matric, which will point toward $57-64mn using Dory while median of two will be at $49-55mn. I prefer;

$14mn Previews

$52mn Friday

$57mn Saturday

$47mn Sunday

 

$170mn

Edited June 19, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, MattW said:

My guess with everything so far is Toy Story will land right around Dory, 130-140m.

And for Far From Home I don't think presales look promising at all.  I expect it'll perform very similarly to Homecoming, 150-ish for the 6 days, low 300s total.

you can't compare 6 days weekend in summer pre-sales with 3 days spring, as most people are doing comparing with CM.

 

In fact, the data we have points toward $45-50mn or higher True Tuesday, from there no way its missing $200mn 6 days.

[Porthos]

I don't know how much it actually matters, but as I check the hourlies over at akvalley, does look like we've had some capping over at Fandango at the 15 minute segment level.  No idea how many segments were capped, or how much it matters.  But perhaps a tiny variable to consider nonetheless.

 

And I do mean tiny variable.

[cdsacken]

Watching stream in HD of Nadal vs Federer Wimbledon 2008. What a glorious match. Broadcast was 6 hours and 13 min

 

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Watching stream in HD of Nadal vs Federer Wimbledon 2008. What a glorious match. Broadcast was 6 hours and 13 min

 

 

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I don't know how much it actually matters, but as I check the hourlies over at akvalley, does look like we've had some capping over at Fandango at the 15 minute segment level.  No idea how many segments were capped, or how much it matters.  But perhaps a tiny variable to consider nonetheless.

 

And I do mean tiny variable.

if its capped how were endgame numbers so big?

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if its capped how were endgame numbers so big?

It’s capped at 1000/15 mins, so 96000/day. Endgame’s 75k Wed and 80k Thurs represent the practical cap, since you get less than 1000/period in whenever another movie sells any tickets and e.g 3-4 AM is not exactly prime selling time. Uncapped it would have gone waaaaaaaaay past 100k in release week.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if its capped how were endgame numbers so big?

They weren't as big as they should have been, neither were AIWs in comps to other tent poles

 

O/Week   Mon - Wed

 

Avengers: Infinity War    49,836 /   54,892  /  68,826

Deadpool 2    23,134  /  28,896  /  41,212

Captain Marvel    33,951    /37,060   / 49,745

Avengers EG    53,999   /  62,351    / 75,977

 

[keysersoze123]

Does that imply every day we exactly see 96K tickets sold. Then the whole data is useless as we dont know what got missed. Its impossible for Fandango to proportionally display data. Rather it must be a random sample. For a huge PS seller it should not matter but some what small/mid level it will go for a toss.

[TalismanRing]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Does that imply every day we exactly see 96K tickets sold. Then the whole data is useless as we dont know what got missed. Its impossible for Fandango to proportionally display data. Rather it must be a random sample. For a huge PS seller it should not matter but some what small/mid level it will go for a toss.

It's not useless when caps aren't being consistently hit every hour, which is an unusual thing.   Small and mid level films aren't hitting that which is why comps between most films (further sorted by genre and main target audience) are pretty good indicators for w/e numbers.  Even with films the size of AQM, DP2 and Venom the ratios still held well.

 

Edited June 19, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Does that imply every day we exactly see 96K tickets sold. Then the whole data is useless as we dont know what got missed. Its impossible for Fandango to proportionally display data. Rather it must be a random sample. For a huge PS seller it should not matter but some what small/mid level it will go for a toss.

Most days are less than 96k total count because most 15 min periods don’t hit the cap.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Menor I am assuming Reporting page combines all formats.

 

So T-14 OD

 

Spidey - 21840 and counting

CM - 21341

 

 

 

How are you getting 21341 for CM? Send way too high

[UserHN]

Just watched Grace Randolph's video just for the laughs (the woman has so many absurd views and conspiracy theories) and she said that she has this feeling that TS4 will underperform (sub-$100M) because tickets sales are not too hot in a theater near her. 

Edited June 19, 2019 by UserHN

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Just watched Grace Randolph's video just for the laughs (the woman has so many absurd views and conspiracy theories) and she said that she has this feeling that TS4 will underperform (sub-$100M) because tickets sales are not too hot in a theater near her. 

Is this theater located in Xanaxville?

[Eric Atreides]

12 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Just watched Grace Randolph's video just for the laughs (the woman has so many absurd views and conspiracy theories) and she said that she has this feeling that TS4 will underperform (sub-$100M) because tickets sales are not too hot in a theater near her. 

Look I know it's cool to hate on Grace here, but she never said sub-$100M, just underperform compared to tracking and expectations. And looking at today's results on Pulse as of now, I can see why she would have that trepidation.

[keysersoze123]

58 minutes ago, Menor said:

How are you getting 21341 for CM? Send way too high

I messed up again. I was combining friday number for 2D with thursday numbers for Imax and 3D. its actually 17792.

 

2D - 13620
3D - 1217
Imax 3D - 3
Imax 2D - 2952

 

All sales till T- 13 ( 2/22)

.

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

Look I know it's cool to hate on Grace here, but she never said sub-$100M, just underperform compared to tracking and expectations. And looking at today's results on Pulse as of now, I can see why she would have that trepidation.

She did not explicitly state sub-$100M but if you go the last part of her video, she said there "the industry is still expecting Toy Story to open well above $100M". It's like she can't believe it. So what does she mean by that statement? Does underperformance mean an OW of sub-$120M?

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	147	12719	16500	22.92%

 

Total Showings Added Today:          28 [includes 2 non-reserved seating showings]

Total Seats Added Today:             2196

Total Seats Sold Today:                  538

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.1182x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 2 days before release.

1.9631x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 2 days before release.

2.3097x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 2 days before release.

 

T-2:

Pika       300 tickets sold [0 sellouts/101 showings |     7619/9404 seats left     |  18.98% sold]

Aladdin  298 tickets sold [0 sellouts/116 showings |  11970/13896 seats left    |  13.86% sold]

KotM     207 tickets sold [0 sellouts/120 showings |  13471/15108 seats left    |  10.84% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.0006x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 2 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-2:

JW2            551 tickets sold [0 sellouts/145 showings |  10171/13595 seats left  | 25.19% sold]

TS4 (JW)     486 tickets sold [0 sellouts/147 showings |  10824/14269 seats left  | 24.14% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.