The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-13 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	17	2375	2796	15.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      18

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

0.8287x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 13 days before their showings.

 

T-13 days:

FB2 sneaks      11 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 891/1399 seats left  |  36.31% sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-17 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	20.721%	12252	Toy Story 4 [combined]
2	13.655%	8074	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	11.896%	7034	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	11.355%	6714	Men in Black International [combined]
5	05.541%	3276	Rocketman
6	05.163%	3053	Dark Phoenix
7	04.526%	2676	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
8	04.179%	2471	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	03.755%	2220	Shaft (2019)
10	03.164%	1871	Avengers Endgame (2019)

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-18 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	20.112%	13802	Toy Story 4 [combined]
2	14.506%	9955	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	12.161%	8346	Men in Black International [combined]
4	11.535%	7916	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
5	05.568%	3821	Dark Phoenix
6	05.001%	3432	Rocketman
7	04.594%	3153	Shaft (2019)
8	04.523%	3104	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
9	03.949%	2710	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
10	02.822%	1937	Late Night (2019)

[Legion Again]

Recently I've been getting the sense that Tues% of weekday gross is inversely correlated how well a movie holds.

[John Marston]

120m for Toy Story or less would be under Dreck the Turd from 2007, unacceptable 

[Porthos]

Yeaaah, I think I'm thinking 13m to 14m now for TS4.  Sacto is probably over-performing so maybe on the 13m end.  Do kinda think I'd be surprised at much under 12.5m though.

 

Close enough to the end point where I might start roping in other comps, just to have a spread of opinion and see if there is anything I can glean from other examples.

[UserHN]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

120m for Toy Story or less would be under Dreck the Turd from 2007, unacceptable 

$120M is still above TS3. That is not an underperformance. Maybe you just have sky high expectations for the movie's gross.

[UserHN]

I just realized that a $120M OW for TS4 will now bring down the 'Disney 5 x 500' club. Just when I changed my answer to 'IN'. Lol. I should probably just sticked with OUT.

[Legion Again]

TS3 adjusted OW 127M. I’d like to see TS4 above that at least, and I feel pretty confident in it. 

[superduperm]

10 minutes ago, UserHN said:

$120M is still above TS3. That is not an underperformance. Maybe you just have sky high expectations for the movie's gross.

Can’t believe I’m saying this, but after pre-sales hype, critical reception and the recent burst in marketing, anything below Toy Story 3’s OW when adjusted ($126M) would be disappointing.

 

To me it’s gotta beat Finding Dory, while $150M and up would be considered a success.

 

I could see this going the TS3 route (have a “slightly underwhelming” opening but then suddenly work its way to one of the highest grossing films worldwide) but the problem is the competition is going to be much thicker.

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, John Marston said:

120m for Toy Story or less would be under Dreck the Turd from 2007, unacceptable 

Shrek3 was following the astounding success of Shrek2 so irrespective of quality it opened great. Nothing wrong for an animation tentpole to fall below Shrek3's ow.

 

What's unacceptable is for an animation to fall below is 2.62x multiplier (even before previews frontloaded anything.) 

 

 

Edited June 19, 2019 by a2k

[MattW]

Top animated openings adjusted:

1	Incredibles 2	$182,687,900	4,410	6/15/18
2	Shrek the Third	$161,052,700	4,122	5/18/07
3	Shrek 2	$158,490,300	4,163	5/19/04
4	Finding Dory	$140,939,200	4,305	6/17/16
5	Minions	$127,781,200	4,301	7/10/15
6	Toy Story 3	$127,525,200	4,028	6/18/10
7	The Secret Life of Pets	$111,710,300	4,370	7/8/16
8	Finding Nemo	$106,134,800	3,374	5/30/03
9	The Incredibles	$103,375,200	3,933	11/5/04
10	Monsters, Inc.	$100,720,300	3,237	11/2/01

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

A Wrinkle In Time

3,698

4,864

15,601

Truth Or Dare

385

760

2,133

Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268

Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337

Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1,282	3,403

Antman & The Wasp

6,613

5,990

11,108

Unfriended

71

240

975

Christopher Robin

1,560

2,442

5,355

11,509

Slender Man

177

418

1,091

3,737

Kin

21

141

263

741

Hellfest

195

304

661

Nutcracker

1,659

1,949

2,567

5,518

Fantastic Beasts

8,956

14,238

21,861

31,880

Possession of Hannah Grace

105

285

893

3,053

Spider-Verse

3,715

5,208

9,858

19,972

Escape Room

111

368

1,543

7,297

Replicas

21

133

336

1,002

Lego Movie 2

2,552

4,130

8,601

13,320

The Prodigy

161

359

847

2,288

How to Train Your Dragon 3

3,724

6,674

12,935

21,313

Greta

120

287

824

1,962

Captive State

60

172

402

1,203

Dumbo

3,069

4,624

9,218

16,140

The Curse of La Llorona

896

1,159

2,704

8,279

Aladdin

9,948

12,038

21,152

31,549

Toy Story 4	12,605	13,388
Child's Play	657	923
Anna	70	186

 

Toy Story

Tuesday

94% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (58.4M)

257% of Spider-Verse (90.9M)

275% of A Wrinkle in Time (91.2M)

111% of Aladdin (101.8M 3-Day, 129.9M 4-Day)

57% of Incredibles 2 (104.4M)

201% of Dragon 3 (110.4M)

324% of Lego 2 (110.6M)

289% of Dumbo (133.2M)

548% of Christopher Robin (134.8M)

687% of Nutcracker (139.8M)

105% of Jurassic World 2 (155.3M)

223% of Ant-Man 2 (169.4M)

 

Day 11-4

61% of Incredibles 2 (112.5M)

127% of Aladdin (116.3M 3-Day, 148.5M 4-Day)

419% of Lego 2 (143M)

278% of Dragon 3 (153.2M)

373% of Dumbo (171.4M)

 

Day 18-4

61% of Incredibles 2 (112.2M)

126% of Aladdin (115.6M 3-Day, 147.6M 4-Day)

402% of Lego 2 (137.2M)

266% of Dragon 3 (146.3M)

336% of Dumbo  (154.5M)

 

Yeah, there's no excuse here. This is an atrocious day for Toy Story. Especially this late in the game, this shouldn't have barely rose from Monday. Like now I'm this close to doubting even Dory numbers. Either this needs to explode on Wednesday, rely on hardcore walk-ups, or both.

 

Child's Play

78% of Hereditary (10.6M)

72% of Sicario 2 (13.7M)

257% of The Prodigy (15M)

304% of Hell Fest (15.6M)

324% of Hannah Grace (20.7M)

80% of La Llorona (21M)

121% of Truth or Dare (22.7M)

221% of Slender Man (25.1M)

251% of Escape Room (45.7M)

 

The comps came down to earth, and the results seem pretty solid for a movie like this.

 

Anna

65% of Greta (2.9M)

140% of Replicas (3.3M)

108% of Captive State (3.4M)

112% of Hotel Artemis (3.6M)

132% of Kin (4M)

60% of Adrift (7M)

156% of Upgrade (7.3M)

262% of Unfriended 2 (9.6M)

 

LOL

[Eric Duncan]

43 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Recently I've been getting the sense that Tues% of weekday gross is inversely correlated how well a movie holds.

Curious to know, what do you think holds for this weekend will be depending on these numbers?

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Menor said:

How are you getting 21341 for CM? Send way too high

What were final OD for CM and EG.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Curious to know, what do you think holds for this weekend will be depending on these numbers?

At the moment this is merely at the level of a nebulous off the cuff observation. I’ll investigate whether there’s any actual statistical power there over the next few days, and if so experiment with predictions off it.

[Porthos]

@Menor could you remind me which akvalley link you were using to see TS4's Tuesday pre-sales for next week?  At least I seem to recall you mentioning you saw that at some point.

 

I got a couple of the links for the daily ones, but they only have Thr-Sun at the moment.  

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah no Disney will definitely not be disappointed if Toy Story 4 "only" does $120M OW. Are we forgetting how awful this summer has been?

 

And it certainly isn't getting Shrek the Third's terrible multiplier judging from the reviews. 

[john2000]

wow, all the doom and gloom about ts4 here, its becomes annoying

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Good god. 🤢🤮

 

Are the US audience becoming too lazy to see movies this summer? I mean...i can understand Dark Phoenix & MIBI’s underperformances...but now we got people saying TS4’s $150M+ OW is getting more and more closer to be in trouble because of underwhelming presales?

 

What next? People will be too lazy to make mass openings for Spidey & The Lion King?

Edited June 19, 2019 by MrFanaticGuy34

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Good god. 🤢🤮

 

Are the US audience becoming too lazy to see movies this summer? I mean...i can understand Dark Phoenix & MIBI’s underperformances...but now we got people saying TS4’s $150M+ OW is getting more and more closer to be in trouble because of underwhelming presales?

 

What next? People will be too lazy to make mass openings for Spidey & The Lion King?

...................... with 13 previews the movie can hit 150+, just stop the overeaction, like many other people do, presales are not everything, plus i mean really, bc of one day, some people yesterday was saying 150 and now bc of one day they will say 120, its becomes ridiculous at this point