The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

57 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

Not all of the presales went to Friday though.

I meant in the Friday daily number, was actually 10k in 5 hours but my point stands

[Legion Again]

The other huge Live action reimagining, BatB, did just under an 11 IM in March 2017. I’m currently thinking around 9-11 for TLK and 18-24 previews or so, but I don’t have a super fine grasp how summer changes things or how much the people who are really excited about this movie will want to see it Thursday.

Edited June 21, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Gonna actually pivot to this and be serious for a sec.

 

What are we thinking about previews for TLK before a single ticket goes on sale, anyway?  I saw a suggestion in the low 20s (IIRC) from one of the more optimistic supporters of TLK on this board, so I was sorta using that as a baseline in my head.

 

Do think we should be cautious over-interpreting the one day/first 48 hour numbers as there does seem to be a rise on that end of the pre-sale spectrum (see in reference TS4).  Unless it completely blows expectations out of the water, naturally.

 

Genuinely curious to hear what people are expecting and what people would think is reasonable here.

 

I have a name! 🤣

 

And yes, $20m is my target.

 

[Eric Atreides]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Gonna actually pivot to this and be serious for a sec.

 

What are we thinking about previews for TLK before a single ticket goes on sale, anyway?  I saw a suggestion in the low 20s (IIRC) from one of the more optimistic supporters of TLK on this board, so I was sorta using that as a baseline in my head.

 

Do think we should be cautious over-interpreting the one day/first 48 hour numbers as there does seem to be a rise on that end of the pre-sale spectrum (see in reference TS4).  Unless it completely blows expectations out of the water, naturally.

 

Genuinely curious to hear what people are expecting and what people would think is reasonable here.

My OW prediction at the moment is somewhere around 185M, give or take 10M. I'm also predicting an IM of about 11x, which is slightly above Beauty and the Beast, and is a good share above Incredibles 2 (these are the movies I've been using as reference for a while now), and I feel like Lion King won't have as much upfront demand for the weekend as those two.

 

So basically, my own projection for previews at the moment is about 16.8M. Give or take 3M or so. If it reaches 20M in previews, then I'd say 200M is all but locked.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I have a name! 🤣

 

And yes, $20m is my target.

 

I thought it would be gauche to tag you there.   Also didn't remember if it was 20 on the nose or not, so I decided to keep it general.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Gonna actually pivot to this and be serious for a sec.

 

What are we thinking about previews for TLK before a single ticket goes on sale, anyway?  I saw a suggestion in the low 20s (IIRC) from one of the more optimistic supporters of TLK on this board, so I was sorta using that as a baseline in my head.

 

Do think we should be cautious over-interpreting the one day/first 48 hour numbers as there does seem to be a rise on that end of the pre-sale spectrum (see in reference TS4).  Unless it completely blows expectations out of the water, naturally.

 

Genuinely curious to hear what people are expecting and what people would think is reasonable here.

I think low to mid 20s or so is a good bet. Could be higher though, TLK has a pretty massive fanbase that will come out early to see it. Think the weekend IM will be somewhat more like a typical event film more than a family film tbh.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I thought it would be gauche to tag you there.   Also didn't remember if it was 20 on the nose or not, so I decided to keep it general.

 

It’s all good. Anyone can tag me in anything. I believe my specific target was Captain Marvel’s total ($20.7m as I recall).

[Cap]

Pros and Cons of Big Preview Number for The Lion King:

 

Pros:

• 
   
• Defining Disney Classic of a Generation
• Enough time between Far From Home for the fanboys' wallets, and enough time from Toy Story 4 for the family wallets' to recover.
• Solid Reviews
   
• 

Cons:

• No "Spoiler" Rush factor
• SDCC Weekend - 200k less of your target nerd audience won't be heading out to the theaters on Thursday
• Reviews or Social Media don't hype it enough to justify its existence; thus turning The Event Of The Year into the I Will Watch It On Disney+ in November.

I think CoolEric's numbers of 16.5 / 185 are really spot on.  That said, because I am deeply committed to Frozen II overperforming, I would love a 15M for TLK.

 

Bottom line,

• I think it will come down to Beyoncé's fans.  What is the rush factor for seeing/hearing Queen Bey?
• I don't see the movie frontloading.  So even if does pull a 15 in previews, it could still pull off at 175+ weekend 

 

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

SDCC Weekend - 200k less of your target nerd audience won't be heading out to the theaters on Thursday

Wow, I hadn’t put together that TLK’s opening wouldn’t even be the most BO impactful news that weekend 

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Pros and Cons of Big Preview Number for The Lion King:I think it will come down to Beyoncé's fans. 

I absolutely pity the first reviewer who drops a rotten tomato on TLK after seeing the Beyhive in action during the NBA Finals. 

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Wow, I hadn’t put together that TLK’s opening wouldn’t even be the most BO impactful news that weekend 

You joke, but depending on what Marvel (and possibly Lucasfilm) put out, it could siphon a ton of entertainment news/press during that weekend.  

 

Marvel Phase 4 plans.  TRoS BtS sizzle reel (or even early full trailer). A Feigebomb being dropped.   Things along those lines.

 

Certainly the possibility that entertainment press coverage could be split a little, unless TLK puts up a monster number OW.  Which it could!  Just don't know yet.

Edited June 21, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

22 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Wow, I hadn’t put together that TLK’s opening wouldn’t even be the most BO impactful news that weekend 

It won't affect the overall weekend that much.  200k ticket is only like 1.8M if you use the national average ticket price for 2019.  But the SDCC Geeks are the SUUUPER Geeks.  They would be the ones to see if Thursday.

 

It's SDCC's 50th Anniversary.  The folks who do show (lol WB) will bring the full razzle-dazzle.  As Porthos said, the entertainment media coverage will be elsewhere. That might affect some of the Social Media buzz.

 

That said:

 

 

 

 

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I absolutely pity the first reviewer who drops a rotten tomato on TLK after seeing the Beyhive in action during the NBA Finals. 

 

THIS.

 

You don't mess with the BeeHive.

 

TLK2019 is ALL about Beyonce.

[jedijake]

We've seen ALL Disney films this year and not a single one carried the TLK trailer. Weird!

[TalismanRing]

Reasons TLK will have $20m+ in previews

 

U.S. Lifetime Adj. Gross: $803,209,300
 

Date	Title (click to view)	Adj. Gross
06/15/1994	The Lion King	$672,365,600
12/27/2002	The Lion King (IMAX)	$23,492,800
09/16/2011	The Lion King (in 3D)	$107,350,800

 

$1.6B over almost 22 years on Broadway - more than any other musical ($8.2B and counting WW as of Dec 2017)

 

		U.S. Home Media - 52m+ units sold (not including digital) 1994-1997: 32m VHS 2003-2005: 11.9m DVDs 2011-2019:  8.5m BR & DVDs   Crazy number YT views & likes for a non CBM (please don't make me add them up.  Though the first on the main channel is at 65m views/ 1.3m likes)   If it gets a 12% on RT though all bets are off.

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Reasons TLK will have $20m+ in previews

 

U.S. Lifetime Adj. Gross: $803,209,300
 

Date	Title (click to view)	Adj. Gross
06/15/1994	The Lion King	$672,365,600
12/27/2002	The Lion King (IMAX)	$23,492,800
09/16/2011	The Lion King (in 3D)	$107,350,800

 

$1.6B over almost 22 years on Broadway - more than any other musical ($8.2B and counting WW as of Dec 2017)

 

		U.S. Home Media - 52m+ units sold (not including digital) 1994-1997: 32m VHS 2003-2005: 11.9m DVDs 2011-2019:  8.5m BR & DVDs   Crazy number YT views & likes for a non CBM (please don't make me add them up.  Though the first on the main channel is at 65m views/ 1.3m likes)   If it gets a 12% on RT though all bets are off.

Unbelievable numbers ....

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

I absolutely pity the first reviewer who drops a rotten tomato on TLK after seeing the Beyhive in action during the NBA Finals. 

Luckily for said rotten reviewer, they will have plenty company.

[Menor the Destroyer]

TS4 will hit 72-74k or so on Pulse (hopefully), 37-39 seems like the range for True Friday. I guess a lot of seats have already been presold hence why it has slowed down in the afternoon much more than any other movie I've tracked

Edited June 21, 2019 by Menor

[Eric Atreides]

21 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

If it gets a 12% on RT though all bets are off.

What if it's 13%?

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

What if it's 13%?

$19.5m

[Sunny Max]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

TS4 will hit 72-74k or so on Pulse (hopefully), 37-39 seems like the range for True Friday. I guess a lot of seats have already been presold hence why it has slowed down in the afternoon much more than any other movie I've tracked

yeah that range ... so far 60,393 ....