The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[superduperm]

47 minutes ago, Menor said:

TS4 will hit 72-74k or so on Pulse (hopefully), 37-39 seems like the range for True Friday. I guess a lot of seats have already been presold hence why it has slowed down in the afternoon much more than any other movie I've tracked

Wow I'm sad.

 

A full OD of sub-50 would suck big time. Wouldn't even beat Shrek the Poop.

 

I really hope you're wrong but you've been spot on. Goddamn it 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, superduperm said:

Wow I'm sad.

 

A full OD of sub-50 would suck big time. Wouldn't even beat Shrek the Poop.

 

I really hope you're wrong but you've been spot on. Goddamn it 

I would wait for Asgard estimate before getting sad, there should be at least one within a couple of hours.

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I would wait for Asgard estimate before getting sad, there should be at least one within a couple of hours.

Yeah right ... but atleast we can get an idea through your tracking ..

 

As of now 61,840 on pulse ... 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Yeah right ... but atleast we can get an idea through your tracking ..

 

As of now 61,840 on pulse ... 

Very weak increase. @Neucentro seems to have been spot on about today's number at 69k, I was wrong and thought it would maintain the hyperspeed it was at in the morning, but it has slowed down quite a bit (I guess that morning rush ended up filling a lot of seats for night shows). So that would end up giving 36-38 again like what I thought at 7am lmao. Even to hit 69k it probably needs a few robust hourlies, could even fall below that.

[superduperm]

48

40

31

 

119

 

Sorry but that's not a good OW. That's actually kind of bad 😰

[Sunny Max]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Very weak increase. @Neucentro seems to have been spot on about today's number at 69k, I was wrong and thought it would maintain the hyperspeed it was at in the morning, but it has slowed down quite a bit (I guess that morning rush ended up filling a lot of seats for night shows). So that would end up giving 36-38 again like what I thought at 7am lmao. Even to hit 69k it probably needs a few robust hourlies, could even fall below that.

he was spot on .... if movie fall below that number (69K) .. than it would be horrible ..  lets see .. next hours are very crucial ..

[Sunny Max]

5 minutes ago, superduperm said:

48

40

31

 

119

 

Sorry but that's not a good OW. That's actually kind of bad 😰

still early to talk about numbers ... just wait for few hours ... picture will clear ...  

[ThomasNicole]

33 minutes ago, superduperm said:

48

40

31

 

119

 

Sorry but that's not a good OW. That's actually kind of bad 😰

Relax and wait for Charlie update

[Yandereprime101189]

3 hours ago, superduperm said:

48

40

31

 

119

 

Sorry but that's not a good OW. That's actually kind of bad 😰

 

No, that's moderately huge, a bigger opening than the previous film.

[Neucentro]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Very weak increase. @Neucentro seems to have been spot on about today's number at 69k, I was wrong and thought it would maintain the hyperspeed it was at in the morning, but it has slowed down quite a bit (I guess that morning rush ended up filling a lot of seats for night shows). So that would end up giving 36-38 again like what I thought at 7am lmao. Even to hit 69k it probably needs a few robust hourlies, could even fall below that.

I guess I got lucky this time.  

 

When I checked TS4's hourly numbers against Dragon 3's yesterday, I noticed they got more frontloaded into the night. They went from 60% above Dragon 3's numbers during the day to only up 35% in the evening. That gave me an idea for my projection.

[jedijake]

Nobody thought that Aladdin could pull $30 million for 3 days straight, even with Memorial Day Monday. There's no indication that TS4 will drop that drastically. Could still do $45-$50-$45 FSS. At least $45-$45-$40 for a $130 million OW.

[DeeCee]

What was the final tracking number for TS4?  Can someone quote the post in here?

[UserHN]

16 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Nobody thought that Aladdin could pull $30 million for 3 days straight, even with Memorial Day Monday. There's no indication that TS4 will drop that drastically. Could still do $45-$50-$45 FSS. At least $45-$45-$40 for a $130 million OW.

$50M Sat is not happening. Dory and I2 barely increased from their true Fri. So expect TS4 Sat to be near $33M.

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

What was the final tracking number for TS4?  Can someone quote the post in here?

140 to 160 from the various trades.

 

I had a post in the TS4 thread that had them all. I'll see if I can find it and  edit it in here.

 

On 6/19/2019 at 5:32 PM, Porthos said:

Tracking right now (excluding lolDeadline 'some say') looks to be 140 to 160.

 

Variety:    "north of" 140

BOP:         149 (140-170 range)

Deadline: 160

 

I think anywhere in that range is more than acceptable, all things considered.

 

Edited June 22, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

140 to 160 from the various trades.

 

I had a post in the TS4 thread that had them all. I'll see if I can find it and  edit it in here.

 

 

After I made that post, BTW, THR decided to YOLO yesterday evening:

 

Box Office Preview: 'Toy Story 4' Targets Huge $150M-$200M U.S. Debut

 

Weren't any Deadline-ish weasel words, either:

 

Quote

A chest of beloved toys are expected to help rescue the summer box office from a bad case of franchise fatigue.

Pixar and Disney's critically acclaimed Toy Story 4 is pegged to debut in the $150 million-$200 million range in North America over the weekend, one of the best openings of all time for an animated feature — not to mention one of the biggest launches of the year.

 

Edited June 22, 2019 by Porthos

[DisposedData]

42 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Nobody thought that Aladdin could pull $30 million for 3 days straight, even with Memorial Day Monday. There's no indication that TS4 will drop that drastically. Could still do $45-$50-$45 FSS. At least $45-$45-$40 for a $130 million OW.

Aladdin had an inflated Sunday with memorial day.

[Menor the Destroyer]

59 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

I guess I got lucky this time.  

 

When I checked TS4's hourly numbers against Dragon 3's yesterday, I noticed they got more frontloaded into the night. They went from 60% above Dragon 3's numbers during the day to only up 35% in the evening. That gave me an idea for my projection.

Very nicely done

[Porthos]

 

Geo1500 lurking on the sidelines right now. 

[superduperm]

41 minutes ago, UserHN said:

$50M Sat is not happening. Dory and I2 barely increased from their true Fri. So expect TS4 Sat to be near $33M.

TS3’s Saturday had $37M in 2010.

 

This is very, very bad. I don’t get how people are defending this. It’s not good. OW could end up below Secret Life of Pets.

[UserHN]

44 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Geo1500 lurking on the sidelines right now. 

Well Geo's predictions were more ridiculous. 90M? 50M? He's not off the hook.