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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

17

2305

2796

17.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      28

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

0.9442x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 10 days before their showings.

 

T-10 days:

FB2 sneaks       3 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 879/1399 seats left  |  37.17% sold]

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On 6/20/2019 at 10:12 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-20 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	55.411%	38889	Toy Story 4 [combined]
2	07.009%	4919	Childs Play (2019)
3	06.304%	4424	The Secret Life of Pets 2
4	05.680%	3986	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
5	04.132%	2900	Men in Black International [combined]
6       03.038% 2132    Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) 
7	02.965%	2081	Rocketman
8	01.862%	1307	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	01.804%	1266	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
10	01.717%	1205	Dark Phoenix
Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-21 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	59.705%	45368	Toy Story 4
2	07.943%	6036	Childs Play (2019)
3	04.532%	3444	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	04.118%	3129	Men in Black International
5	04.002%	3041	The Secret Life of Pets 2
6	03.018%	2293	Rocketman
7	01.996%	1517	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
8       01.948% 1480    Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) [combined]
8	01.835%	1394	Anna (2019)
10	01.548%	1176	Shaft (2019)
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30 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Total Seats Sold Today:                      28

T-10 days:

FB2 sneaks       3 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 879/1399 seats left  |  37.17% sold]

I know that there aren’t any better comps, due to the limited showtimes vs normal Thursday previews, but this one is starting to get pretty funny as we near release.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I know that there aren’t any better comps, due to the limited showtimes vs normal Thursday previews, but this one is starting to get pretty funny as we near release.

The comp is about to pick up for FB2:

 

Date Showings Seats Left  Total Seats  Prct Sold  Seats Sold   Sold That Day
T-10:	6	879	    1399	  37.17%	520	   3
T-9:	6	878	    1399	  37.24%	521	   1
T-8:	6	860	    1399	  38.53%	539	   18
T-7:	6	840	    1399	  39.96%	559	   20
T-6:	6	828	    1399	  40.81%	571	   12
T-5:	6	813	    1399	  41.89%	586	   15
T-4:	6	772	    1399	  44.82%	627	   41
T-3:	6	763	    1399	  45.46%	636	   9
T-2:	6	732	    1399	  47.68%	667	   31
T-1: 	6	717	    1399	  48.75%	682	   15
T-0:	6	563	    1399	  59.76%	836	   154

 

Edited by Porthos
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Posted (edited)

Kinda thinking FFH final day outsells FB2 (sneaks) rest of run still. But hey, when life throws you a novelty, use what you’ve got.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Kinda thinking FFH final day outsells FB2 (sneaks) rest of run still. But hey, when life throws you a novelty, use what you’ve got.

Well, it does have nearly three times as many showings and nearly twice as many seats available. :lol:  

 

But you are right about novelty.   If I bothered to track any early access stuff that might have been useful as well...

 

... Except one theater locally has recently been over-booking those things compared to everyone else in the region. so perhaps not. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited by Porthos
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5 hours ago, Neucentro said:

I guess I got lucky this time. ;) 

 

When I checked TS4's hourly numbers against Dragon 3's yesterday, I noticed they got more frontloaded into the night. They went from 60% above Dragon 3's numbers during the day to only up 35% in the evening. That gave me an idea for my projection.

hmmm ..

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Tracking here was better than any "professional" publication. When people were reporting that at their own theaters and on Fandango, 60-65% of Incredible 2's tickets were being sold, that should have been an indication of where TS4 would end up. And low and behold, its OW appears to be running 60-65% of Incredibles 2.

 

Makes you really wonder where the $140-$160 million estimations were coming from in the first place.

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3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Tracking here was better than any "professional" publication. When people were reporting that at their own theaters and on Fandango, 60-65% of Incredible 2's tickets were being sold, that should have been an indication of where TS4 would end up. And low and behold, its OW appears to be running 60-65% of Incredibles 2.

 

Makes you really wonder where the $140-$160 million estimations were coming from in the first place.

This opening would have been a lot less surprising to me if not for the Wang number, but I suspect his number for I2 from last year may have been from a different date or something

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9 minutes ago, Menor said:

This opening would have been a lot less surprising to me if not for the Wang number, but I suspect his number for I2 from last year may have been from a different date or something

Will we see a good increase for TS4 today based on early numbers?

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1 minute ago, UserHN said:

Will we see a good increase for TS4 today based on early numbers?

Better than I2 for sure (though it will have a worse Sunday drop). 41-43 (20% give or take) seems like a good range for now like I posted in the weekend thread.

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Haven't done this in a while.

 

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Annabelle 3 136 136 236 211 221
  9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days 5 days
           
Spider-Man FFH 1,415 1,408 2,604 2,106 1,283
  15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days 11 days

 

 

Annabelle

Day 9-5

84% of The First Purge (14.6M 3-Day, 26.2M 5-Day)

27% of The Nun (14.4M 3-Day)

 

Day 16-5

108% of The First Purge (18.8M 3-Day, 33.8M 5-Day)

25% of The Nun (13.6M 3-Day)

 

The first Purge (heh) comp does make me pause, considering it's on the home stretch, but it's still a couple days away. Let's see what happens.

 

Far From Home

Day 15-11

16% of Infinity War (41.9M 3-Day)

45% of Captain Marvel (69.6M 3-Day)

 

Day 22-11

14% of Infinity War (37.2M 3-Day)

46% of Captain Marvel (70.3M 3-Day)

 

Looking at past results, a 70M 3-Day was what Transformers got, and that translated out to a 155M 6-Day opening. Do with that information what you will

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17 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Haven't done this in a while.

 

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Annabelle 3 136 136 236 211 221
  9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days 5 days
           
Spider-Man FFH 1,415 1,408 2,604 2,106 1,283
  15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days 11 days

 

 

Annabelle

Day 9-5

84% of The First Purge (14.6M 3-Day, 26.2M 5-Day)

27% of The Nun (14.4M 3-Day)

 

Day 16-5

108% of The First Purge (18.8M 3-Day, 33.8M 5-Day)

25% of The Nun (13.6M 3-Day)

 

The first Purge (heh) comp does make me pause, considering it's on the home stretch, but it's still a couple days away. Let's see what happens.

 

Far From Home

Day 15-11

16% of Infinity War (41.9M 3-Day)

45% of Captain Marvel (69.6M 3-Day)

 

Day 22-11

14% of Infinity War (37.2M 3-Day)

46% of Captain Marvel (70.3M 3-Day)

 

Looking at past results, a 70M 3-Day was what Transformers got, and that translated out to a 155M 6-Day opening. Do with that information what you will

Inline with Homecoming's first 6 days. maybe an extra 10M bump, right about what I'm expecting. 

 

Please, people, keep your predictions measured. we don't need another disappointment. 

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8 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

The Nun was an anomaly, TCU movies are usually extremely walkup and only see a surge on sales 3 days before the release, I'm not worried yet.

Not trying to say you're wrong, but do you have evidence of that? We weren't able to get Pulse data from AKValley until January 2018. In that time, we only had one TCU movie (at least one marketed as a TCU movie).

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15 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Not trying to say you're wrong, but do you have evidence of that? We weren't able to get Pulse data from AKValley until January 2018. In that time, we only had one TCU movie (at least one marketed as a TCU movie).

Presales for TN were too high

‘The Nun’ Outpaces All Four ‘Conjuring’ Movies Combined in Fandango Presales

 

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1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

.

 

Far From Home

Day 15-11

16% of Infinity War (41.9M 3-Day)

45% of Captain Marvel (69.6M 3-Day)

 

Day 22-11

14% of Infinity War (37.2M 3-Day)

46% of Captain Marvel (70.3M 3-Day)

 

Looking at past results, a 70M 3-Day was what Transformers got, and that translated out to a 155M 6-Day opening. Do with that information what you will

Far From Home pulse is pretty much useless. Its heavily Tuesday loaded with barely anything for weekend.

 

OD is much bigger on pulse than CM.

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20 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

43,658 Pulse presales for TS4 so far ..

 

 

Is that good?

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