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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Just looking at a few theaters with full slates up for TLK previews, and it’s basically triple/quadruple what TS4 got. I fully believe now that Disney/movie theaters are expecting previews north of $30 million. 

It shall do that much. Imo TLK = Jurassic World + 25% and for that previews of 27+ are needed.

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1 minute ago, john2000 said:

if true, then 240-250 ow very likely

 

That is correct. I’m still going to target $20m previews and a $200m OW, but the theaters are treating this like something between Infinity War and Endgame. I can’t do a full comp until my theater gets their times up, but for reference we did 14 times for TS4 ($12m previews), 30 times for Captain Marvel ($20.7m previews) and 37 times for Infinity War on Wednesday night (I didn’t get to update on Thursday, $39m previews)

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Posted (edited)

I don't know really know what preview multi TLK will have, Aladdin had a 13 but that was with memorial day and I think the better marketing for TLK will make it more frontloaded.

Probably a multi around Incredibles 2 considering that had father's day that would mean something around 9x (maybe a little lower?).

Also, the show numbers you are posting are really high how many screens do those cinemas have.

 

AFAIK no cinema in Germany has any information up about TLK but I expect preview showings to go up probably tomorrow or on Wednesday.

But here the number of preview showings means nothing, the highest count for any preview showing since Endgame was Men In Black and that opened to a third of John Wick / Aladdin, so...

Also, I think in one cinema Endgame and Men In Black had the same number of preview showings (4).

The one I normally go to had three for Endgame (German, Englisch and double), two for Pets today and all other movies that opened this year had one preview showing (spider-man only has one up right now too).

 

Edited by Taruseth

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2 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

I don't know really know what preview multi TLK will have, Aladdin had a 13 but that was with memorial day and I think the better marketing for TLK will make it more frontloaded.

Probably a multi around Incredibles 2 considering that had father's day that would mean something around 9x (maybe a little lower?).

I’m expecting 9-10x.

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8 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

TS4 was never really going to do 200 but I was hoping for 150. Many were thinking of just in TS3 range before Pre-Sales.

 

TLK on other hand will most likely beat The Force Awakens 247 IMO. I am pretty confident about true FSS close to Infinity War.

I'm thinking more in the 200 range, I don't think this movie has a huge rush factor to get to 250+.

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17 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'm thinking more in the 200 range, I don't think this movie has a huge rush factor to get to 250+.

 

star wars lack of faith GIF

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46 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

star wars lack of faith GIF

It should have good legs to get to 600+ dom, I just don't think that this is the type of movie that people immediately rush in to see on OW

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10 minutes ago, Menor said:

It should have good legs to get to 600+ dom, I just don't think that this is the type of movie that people immediately rush in to see on OW

 

Fair enough. My personal target for OW is 15-25% over BATB, but I'm hoping the insane number of showtimes we're seeing is indicative of something bigger on on the horizon. 

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Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

Annabelle 3 136 136 236 211 221 275
  9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days 5 days 4 days
             
Spider-Man FFH 1,415 1,408 2,604 2,106 1,283 1,243
  15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days 11 days 10 days

 

Annabelle

Day 9-4

84% of The First Purge (14.7M 3-Day, 26.4M 5-Day)

22% of The Nun (11.7M 3-Day)

 

Day 16-4

104% of The First Purge (18M 3-Day, 32.5M 5-Day)

22% of The Nun (11.9M 3-Day)

 

Far From Home

Day 15-10

14% of Infinity War (35.2M 3-Day)

36% of Captain Marvel (54.8M 3-Day)

 

Day 22-10

13% of Infinity War (34M 3-Day)

39% of Captain Marvel (60.3M 3-Day)

 

I don't have time to do any analysis. The only thing I'll say is that I'm excited to track Lion King soon, if only because I finally get to look at a 3-day opener again.

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6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

 

The queen has spoken. The king's tickets will start tomorrow

 

@Porthos @VenomXXR @captainwondyful @YourMother the Edgelord @Menor @Thanos Legion @FlashMaster659 etc., may I wish the best for all of you.

Pros: I KNNNNEEEW they were gonna do the 24th. :) 25th Anniversary! 

 

Cons: ugh. So much counting. 

 

And more pressing.  Why is the only day not listed on the Chinese theater website the day that we are going to see the movie. I get very anxious about these things if I do not have my tickets at exactly 8 o’clock in the morning. 

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29 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

 

The queen has spoken. The king's tickets will start tomorrow

 

@Porthos @VenomXXR @captainwondyful @YourMother the Edgelord @Menor @Thanos Legion @FlashMaster659 etc., may I wish the best for all of you.

One thing I'm wondering for this is what's the best comp. Aladdin may work but I feel like the scale would be completely different. 

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5 minutes ago, Menor said:

One thing I'm wondering for this is what's the best comp. Aladdin may work but I feel like the scale would be completely different. 

Aladdin's solid, but I feel like Incredibles 2 would be the best comp here, due to OW, and similarities between the two (Repackaged Disney classic, nostalgia, chasing popular trend).

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22 minutes ago, Menor said:

One thing I'm wondering for this is what's the best comp. Aladdin may work but I feel like the scale would be completely different. 

Endgame. 😉

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BatB is kind of old now, female skewing, March, but I’ll probably still pay it some attention.

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TLK will be a hard comp. On one hand, it’s a cross generational family film. On another hand, it’s a heavy nostalgia film that should play well with kids.

 

I2 is the comp I’ll be comparing to it the most. BATB will be 2nd. Honesty, TS4 will probably be 3rd.

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Speculating on what would bring in the biggest preview gross ever:

 

Emma Watson, Daniel Radcliffe, RDJ, Chris Evans, Scarlet Johansen, Daisy Ridley and Adam Driver all starring in a remake of Twilight. 

$200m in previews

$250m OW

$275m dom total

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