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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Today is key for FFH sales. Needs a big bump tonight and some big #s next week. One thing to consider is that its Pulse numbers will likely be deflated in the end because of the weekend being right before its release day, and Pulse for upcoming movies being deflated on the weekend.

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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Today is key for FFH sales. Needs a big bump tonight and some big #s next week. One thing to consider is that its Pulse numbers will likely be deflated in the end because of the weekend being right before its release day, and Pulse for upcoming movies being deflated on the weekend.

how it did yesterday ?

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1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

Aladdin's solid, but I feel like Incredibles 2 would be the best comp here, due to OW, and similarities between the two (Repackaged Disney classic, nostalgia, chasing popular trend).

I2 had Father's Day FWIW.  Of course, Aladdin had the even bigger MDW, but still something to remember when it comes to I2.

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4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

how it did yesterday ?

Not great yesterday, but with TS4 releasing I kinda expected that. I am thinking of bringing in an AMATW comp as well as CM, although those two movies had very different presale size.

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Posted (edited)

Also when it comes to FFH, TLK is gonna heavily skew the numbers of Fandango tomorrow.  Pulse might even crash again under the onslaught.  Or at least 'break' if it is really a flood control measure.

 

With early pre-sales accelerating every quarter it seems now (see TS4 walloping I2 on first day pre-sales but not remotely sniffing it on opening night), real danger of TLK just overwhelming everything AND casting a large shadow for its first few days of pre-sales.  Could mean it skews not just Monday, but Tue as well.  Possibly putting a thumb on the scale for Wed and Thr for that matter, if not nearly to the degree of its first couple of days.

 

Mostly just saying "don't freak out" if FFH gets hit a bit over the next few days.

Edited by Porthos
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4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Also when it comes to FFH, TLK is gonna heavily skew the numbers of Fandango tomorrow.  Pulse might even crash again under the onslaught.  Or at least 'break' if it is really a flood control measure.

 

With early pre-sales accelerating every quarter it seems now (see TS4 walloping I2 on first day pre-sales but not remotely sniffing it on opening night), real danger of TLK just overwhelming everything AND casting a large shadow for its first few days of pre-sales.  Could mean it skews not just Monday, but Tue as well.  Possibly putting a thumb on the scale for Wed and Thr for that matter, if not nearly to the degree of its first couple of days.

 

Mostly just saying "don't freak out" if FFH gets hit a bit over the next few days.

I don't think TLK will be Pulse crashing levels of presales. I expect it to be more in the CM/FFH level of day 1 sales, but it will still skew things a bit.

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5 minutes ago, Menor said:

I don't think TLK will be Pulse crashing levels of presales. I expect it to be more in the CM/FFH level of day 1 sales, but it will still skew things a bit.

Sure as well hope so, as I ain't planning on waking up at 6am to catch any instant sellouts! 👍

 

(Prob will wake a little earlier than normal though, just to make sure I catch the fan event seat charts)

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9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Also when it comes to FFH, TLK is gonna heavily skew the numbers of Fandango tomorrow.  Pulse might even crash again under the onslaught.  Or at least 'break' if it is really a flood control measure.

 

With early pre-sales accelerating every quarter it seems now (see TS4 walloping I2 on first day pre-sales but not remotely sniffing it on opening night), real danger of TLK just overwhelming everything AND casting a large shadow for its first few days of pre-sales.  Could mean it skews not just Monday, but Tue as well.  Possibly putting a thumb on the scale for Wed and Thr for that matter, if not nearly to the degree of its first couple of days.

 

Mostly just saying "don't freak out" if FFH gets hit a bit over the next few days.

 

In general I just don’t feel a ton of oomph for FFH. I don’t think the bump from IW/EG is going to be nearly as drastic as some believe. I can even see this missing $400m domestic. I do think it beats HC but wouldn’t be at all surprised if it just crossed $350m.

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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Sure as well hope so, as I ain't planning on waking up at 6am to catch any instant sellouts! 👍

 

(Prob will wake a little earlier than normal though, just to make sure I catch the fan event seat charts)

I don't think it will have better Day 1 sales than IW. What the actual number will be I'm not sure, but IW didn't come close to crashing Pulse. Tomorrow is definitely gonna be fun though

 

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

In general I just don’t feel a ton of oomph for FFH. I don’t think the bump from IW/EG is going to be nearly as drastic as some believe. I can even see this missing $400m domestic. I do think it beats HC but wouldn’t be at all surprised if it just crossed $350m.

We'll see, it's a different situation than most MCU movies because we have TS4 opening just 11 days before, so it'll have a shorter amount of time to build buzz. I still have a good feeling about it though.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

In general I just don’t feel a ton of oomph for FFH. I don’t think the bump from IW/EG is going to be nearly as drastic as some believe. I can even see this missing $400m domestic. I do think it beats HC but wouldn’t be at all surprised if it just crossed $350m.

disagree, but we will see

Edited by john2000

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Posted (edited)

Not a club I’m gonna make, but I’m thinking TLK 7 Days > FFH 7 Days x 2

Edited by VenomXXR
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Posted (edited)

July 2 london ontario canada

Spiderman Far from home

Silvercity
IMAX 
120 74/323 (+27)
345 68/323 (+18)
710. 207/323 (+13) 3d
1045 100/323 (+27).  3d

449/1292 (36.4%)

Westmount

VIP
415 20/63 (+13)
745 49/63 (+6)
1115 9/63 (+7)

AVX
105 22/173(+8)
410 108/173(+16)
715 44/173 (+13)
1020 20/173(+9)

194/692 (28%)
 

 

I will be surprised if there isnt at least 1 sellout ( minus wheelchair seats)

Edited by Tinalera
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spidey pulse numbers are look awful and still front loaded. Again tracking is going to be off.

???? charlie said 

Far From Home pulse is pretty much useless. Its heavily Tuesday loaded with barely anything for weekend.

 

OD is much bigger on pulse than CM.

Edited by john2000

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15 minutes ago, john2000 said:

???? charlie said 

Far From Home pulse is pretty much useless. Its heavily Tuesday loaded with barely anything for weekend.

 

OD is much bigger on pulse than CM.

Cm of has overtaken spidey. Equivalent of Sunday number for cm around 32700. Spidey is around 80% and should gain few % by end of day. Also place of cm was way higher and so its trending worse.

 

We have seen that there is limit to how much sales can happen at the last moment and so calling it useless is to ignore trends.

 

Let us see how things change tomorrow 

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Also, keep in mind that presales for summer releases tend to be significantly deflated. Ex: comping TS4's final Pulse sales to HTTYD3 would give a weekend # in the 80s. Thus CM may not be the best comp. AMATW was released in the summer and had drastically low #s compared to the early spring releases like CM and BP, comping it's final Pulse sales to Captain Marvel would have yielded a weekend of 49 million instead of 76. It's better to compare to something from the same season, but that yields its own problems because the only MCU summer comp is AMATW whose presales are way way below Spidey (like right now Spidey total 6-day PS is more than 3x AMATW was at 1 week before release), making it difficult to compare.

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23 minutes ago, john2000 said:

???? charlie said 

Far From Home pulse is pretty much useless. Its heavily Tuesday loaded with barely anything for weekend.

 

OD is much bigger on pulse than CM.

Yes ... heavy presales for tuesday .. nothing for the weekend ... 

 

Tuesday :- 25,974

Wednesday :- 5339

Thursday :- 3497

Friday :- 3671

Saturday :- 4152

Sunday :- 1708

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Cm of has overtaken spidey. Equivalent of Sunday number for cm around 32700. Spidey is around 80% and should gain few % by end of day. Also place of cm was way higher and so its trending worse.

 

We have seen that there is limit to how much sales can happen at the last moment and so calling it useless is to ignore trends.

 

Let us see how things change tomorrow 

I am getting 26795 for CM at end of today, where are you getting 32700. CM was able to basically tie it but Spidey's pace may overtake tomorrow depending on trend tonight. Different weekday/weekend schedule is affecting things in weird ways.

Edited by Menor
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Posted (edited)

Tl;dr Summer Tuesday (no-previews) release extremely messes with all comps.     

 

I think comparing to CM and AM&TW can give a limited insight for OD, and I doubt Pulse has much value for WThFSS (until 0-1 days before). Some people are speculating optimistically, some people are speculating pessimistically. It will be interesting to see who ends up closer in the end, but personally I’m pretty much just deploying “wait and see” mode here.   

 

Now TLK at least has a nice normal Fri opening. Very curious how the first day goes, though I don’t think I have any club statuses contingent on it. 

Edited by Thanos Legion
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3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

In general I just don’t feel a ton of oomph for FFH. I don’t think the bump from IW/EG is going to be nearly as drastic as some believe. I can even see this missing $400m domestic. I do think it beats HC but wouldn’t be at all surprised if it just crossed $350m.

Completely possible. Gimme 350-425 DOM

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