The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

“With TLK opening to 250M, did Disney leave 750M on the table this weekend?”

6*I2 opening is 1.096 billion. Thus, "With TLK opening to 250M, did Disney leave Avengers: Endgame on the table this weekend?"

[XXR vs XXR]

18 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think @VenomXXR is thinking a bit small here. Using I2 as a comp, TLK is heading for the first ever BILLION DOLLAR DOMESTIC OW. Every single lost dollar, every single underperformance or flop has led up to this moment. The King will arise.

[infamous5445]

What are the first day numbers for the two Avengers movies?

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

What are the first day numbers for the two Avengers movies?

IW - 29k

EG - Pulse crashed, from the general ratio of theater sales at chains it would probablyhave hit the 4k cap every hour it was on sale that day and ended up with 60k or so, but if Pulse didn't cap people on this thread estimated it would have done something in the 300-400k range

[XXR vs XXR]

TLK — 12 Hour Update — AMC Willowbrook 24

 

TLK is starting off with 37 show times (Captain Marvel had 30 on Wednesday before opening) and has sold 218 tickets so far (Aladdin had sold 267 by 5pm on Wednesday before opening). I didn’t do a total seat count, but I will once I start my official updates on Wednesday night.

 

All in all, I’d say the theaters are prepping for a $25m+ previews night. Whether it gets into that territory or not remains to be seen, of course.

Edited June 25, 2019 by VenomXXR

[jedijake]

I'd say that the preview-to-OW multiplier will be bigger for TLK than for movies like Captain Marvel. The reason is that superhero films tend to bring out bigger previews. But I may be stating the obvious. 

 

A $25 million preview for TLK would yield an OW deep into the $200 millions without question.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I'd say that the preview-to-OW multiplier will be bigger for TLK than for movies like Captain Marvel. The reason is that superhero films tend to bring out bigger previews. But I may be stating the obvious. 

 

A $25 million preview for TLK would yield an OW deep into the $200 millions without question.

 

I imagine the previews/weekend ratio will be in the 9-10x range. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I am not convinced about 25 million in previews for TLK yet, but we will see. It's not an easy number to reach, especially for a family-oriented film.

[FlashMaster659]

As of about 30 minutes ago

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 102/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 123/203

9:00 PM - 113/203

12:00 AM - 19/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 25/78

6:30 PM - 1/63

7:00 PM - 3/78

8:45 PM - 12/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 2/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 0/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 0/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 0/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 0/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 29/63

8:00 PM - 18/61

8:30 PM - 16/63

10:45 PM - 2/63

11:15 PM - 0/61

11:45 PM - 0/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 10/44

6:15 PM - 5/55

6:30 PM - 30/217

6:45 PM - 0/48

7:00 PM - 6/79

7:15 PM - 3/44

7:45 PM - 5/44

8:00 PM - 11/45

8:15 PM - 4/167

8:30 PM - 0/45

8:45 PM - 0/44

9:00 PM - 0/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 0/55

9:45 PM - 2/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

557/5158 (10.8%)

 

*These shows are glitched sell-outs. However because of the pattern the showtimes form, it's safe to assume how many seats are in the theater and the zero have been sold so far based on how other shows around that time are doing.

Edited June 25, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Fanboy]

Shouldn't Annabelle be doing a bit better with presales considering it opens in less than 24 hours?

[Porthos]

Looks like TLK is gonna just miss Fallen Kingdom's first day on Pulse.  Right now, including the Fan Event, TLK is sitting at 10,540.  It's been getting around 450-470 sets per hour last few hours, so even if it hits 11k, it'll still be a tiny bit short of JW:FK's 11.6k.

 

 

Eyeballing it, TLK has a lot more holdover competition with TS4/Aladdin in theaters and FFH rising than TLK faced on last May 30th.  So keep that in mind when thinking about things.

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Porthos

[MovieMan89]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Looks like TLK is gonna just miss Fallen Kingdom's first day on Pulse.  Right now, including the Fan Event, TLK is sitting at 10,540.  It's been getting around 450-470 sets per hour last few hours, so even if it hits 11k, it'll still be a tiny bit short of JW:FK's 11.6k.

 

 

Eyeballing it, TLK has a lot more holdover competition with TS4/Aladdin in theaters and FFH rising than TLK faced on last May 30th.  So keep that in mind when thinking about things.

 

Still sticking with TLK either missing 150 OW or just barely hitting it. 

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Still sticking with TLK either missing 150 OW or just barely hitting it. 

Probably wouldn’t even make the top 5 most disappointing weekend so far this year. But I hope not, last thing we need is more big movies coming in under hopes/expectations.

[Doctor Stark]

Did the numbers slow down as the day went on? Last I heard this thing was having Infinity War-level pre-sales. Did it match it for the first few hours and then fall behind?

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Stark said:

Did the numbers slow down as the day went on? Last I heard this thing was having Infinity War-level pre-sales. Did it match it for the first few hours and then fall behind?

First few hours were a lot stronger than later. Totally normal for first day of sales, might have been exacerbated today by TS4 and capping. I would personally describe them as very strong but not out of this world.

[Geo1500]

43 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Still sticking with TLK either missing 150 OW or just barely hitting it. 

 

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	19	2267	2793*	18.92%

* NOTE:  A pair of theaters adjusted their seats available resulting in three fewer seats overall.

 

Total Showings Added Today:              2 (both at a non-reserved seating theater)

Total Seats Added Today:                 n/a

Total Seats Sold Today:                      27

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

0.9946x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 7 days before their showings.

 

T-7 days:

FB2 sneaks      20 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 840/1399 seats left  |  39.96% sold]

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	133	15821	16971	6.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                  1150

 

Unadjusted Comps

7.2785x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after one day of pre-sales.

4.9784x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after one day of pre-sales.

4.0070x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after one day of pre-sales.

1.6691x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 after one day of pre-sales.

 

Day 1:

Pika       158 tickets sold [0 sellouts/63 showings |     6864/7022 seats left     |  2.25% sold]

Aladdin  231 tickets sold [0 sellouts/66 showings |     8852/9083 seats left     |  2.54% sold]

KotM     287 tickets sold [0 sellouts/57 showings  |    7257/7544 seats left      |  3.80% sold]

TS4       689 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings  |  10882/11571 seats left    |  5.95% sold]

NOTE:  Some theaters sold tickets for a couple of days for KotM before being officially announced for sale.

 

Adjusted Comps

1.8151x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after one day of pre-sales.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 1:

JW2             595 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings   |     8760/9355 seats left    | 6.36% sold]

TLK (JW)    1080 tickets sold [0 sellouts/133 showings  |  14377/15457 seats left  | 6.99% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

[Porthos]

On 6/23/2019 at 10:35 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-23 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	55.456%	40659	Toy Story 4
2	06.450%	4729	Childs Play (2019)
3	05.269%	3851	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	04.423%	3243	Men in Black International
5	04.193%	3074	The Secret Life of Pets 2
6	03.201%	2347	Rocketman
7       02.932% 2150    Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) [combined]
8	02.761%	2024	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	01.998%	1465	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
10	01.886%	1383	Anna (2019)

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-24 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	44.158%	29214	Toy Story 4
2	16.602%	10984	The Lion King (2019) [combined]
3	05.751%	3805	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) [combined]
4	04.482%	2965	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
5	04.196%	2776	Childs Play (2019)
6	03.806%	2518	The Secret Life of Pets 2
7	03.422%	2264	Annabelle Comes Home
8	03.126%	2068	Men in Black International
9	02.036%	1347	Rocketman
10	01.580%	1045	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

[Porthos]

Nothing to be said but a strong day in Sacramento for TLK.  It wasn't at the level of the big CBMs (or Solo for that matter), which is why I didn't put them in the comps yet.  Also tend to think the pre-sale pattern will be different with them.  But I plan on roping in at least a couple eventually.  Maybe even within a couple of days.

 

One thing that stands out, as @VenomXXR had already noted is that theaters locally are preparing for the possibility of a YUGE OW. Only other film that started with more was Endgame.  The second closest to TLK was IW which had 103 at start versus TLK's 133 (123 if I don't count the new theater in town).  However that was also much further away at 42 days of pre-sales, so that also should be noted.

 

Now doesn't mean it'll finish with the second most showings. Captain Marvel, for instance, finished north of 200 showings even though it started at 63.  TS4 hit 156 at final bell just a couple of days ago.  So who knows where it'll end up.

 

Regardless it was a strong start for TLK locally, but not on the level of the stronger CBMs/SW films.  Which is to be expected for this type of movie, especially since the national numbers really didn't reflect that sort of start, either.