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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 minute ago, poweranimals said:

Just curious but what's the reason that the Endgame thread is locked?

SW fans and Avatar fans had a... mild tiff. 

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Wait... Did someone drop a Sad Tennant reaction on TLK's day in Sacto?  

 

Really?

 

I... I don't know what to say to that. :lol:

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6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Wait... Did someone drop a Sad Tennant reaction on TLK's day in Sacto?  

 

Really?

 

I... I don't know what to say to that. :lol:

Literally a banned Shivampa alt, so...

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Okay, after tallying up the Summer Games, getting super distracted by Blackkklansman and Flynn's Robin Hood, and posting lots of 'I sympathize' gifs to Porthos, I got some numbers.

 

The Lion King

Thursday Previews

 

And we start off with...

 

The Lion King
  2.24 Total %
Lincoln Square 1002 6686 14.98%
Cinemagic 12 2434 0.49%

 

 

  • Lincoln Square
    • With 6686 seats available, it's doubled Toy Story's 3120 tickets.
    • Good News: TLK's sales are almost double all other First Day Of Sales at Lincoln Square, aside from AEG.  So I'm just going to skip to the very end:
       
      TLK Day One v Comps Final Day
      Movie Sold %
      Lincoln Square 13
      TLK 1002 --
      Pika Pika 613 163%
      John Wick 3 675 145%
      Aladdin 836 119%
      Godzilla 1102 91%
      Rocketman 470 213%
      Dark Phoenix 1383 72%
      Pets 2 152 659%
      Thorykie AU 653 153%
      Toy Story 4 1273 79%
    • What about Endgame? This is nowhere CLOSE to the Insanity of Endgame.  Endgame sold 4,665 Tickets in its first Day at LS13.  There's still a lot of time to catch up.    
       
  • Southern Maine Cinemagic
     
    • chris evans laughing GIF

      I STFG, my local theater decided to show up for AEG pre-sales and then were just like, "We did our job for the year.  That's all folks!  See you in 2020 for Eternals (let's be real, the boys won't show up for Black Widow).  Just for the record, AEG sold 1138 tickets on its First Day.  

Here's what I'm seeing.  Both theaters are performing normally.  LS13's come out swinging -- due to its being one of the premiere theaters in NYC -- and SMCM's going to crash and burn on July 18th since they hate pre-sales.

 

It's definitely going to be huge.  Personally, after the past two months, and particularly after Pika Pika and Toy Story 4, I am going to continue to be cautious until I see something that Wows me.

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22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

SW fans and Avatar fans had a... mild tiff. 

What are SW fans doing in EG thread? Lol. I expect Avatar fans since Avatar's record is being challenged, but what about SW? The challenge to TFA's DOM record is long gone.

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32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Nothing to be said but a strong day in Sacramento for TLK.  It wasn't at the level of the big CBMs (or Solo for that matter), which is why I didn't put them in the comps yet.  Also tend to think the pre-sale pattern will be different with them.  But I plan on roping in at least a couple eventually.  Maybe even within a couple of days.

 

One thing that stands out, as @VenomXXR had already noted is that theaters locally are preparing for the possibility of a YUGE OW. Only other film that started with more was Endgame.  The second closest to TLK was IW which had 103 at start versus TLK's 133 (123 if I don't count the new theater in town).  However that was also much further away at 42 days of pre-sales, so that also should be noted.

 

Now doesn't mean it'll finish with the second most showings. Captain Marvel, for instance, finished north of 200 showings even though it started at 63.  TS4 hit 156 at final bell just a couple of days ago.  So who knows where it'll end up.

 

Regardless it was a strong start for TLK locally, but not on the level of the stronger CBMs/SW films.  Which is to be expected for this type of movie, especially since the national numbers really didn't reflect that sort of start, either.

Do SH movies typically have strong 1st day pre-sales?

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Imho we won't get a clear view until 1 week out and especially when it gets closer it's even better. 3 and half week pre-release comparisons dosen't say much to my logic and intellect  

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, UserHN said:

What are SW fans doing in EG thread? Lol. I expect Avatar fans since Avatar's record is being challenged, but what about SW? The challenge to TFA's DOM record is long gone.

Someone made a passing comment that SW would never ever again be #1 at the All Time WW box office (a reasonable enough observation, IMO).

 

Someone else a bit later in the discussion that resulted then made a snide remark about Rian Johnson in particular and Disney SW in general.

 

It was then Off to the Races, as the saying goes.

33 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Do SH movies typically have strong 1st day pre-sales?

 

The big ones? Lately they have been.  Not as strong as Saga SW 1st day.  But far stronger than family movies.  Might post a few comps before I head to bed (little busy right now, so I don't have the time to do it right this sec).

Edited by Porthos
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Was already planning on doing this, but since @UserHN asked.

 

TLK did:

 

0.7677x of Captain Marvel after 1+ days of pre-sales*. [1150 v 1498]

0.4106x of Solo on an adjusted basis after 1+ days of pre-sales.* [1080 v 2630]

0.2317x of Infinity War on an adjusted basis after 1 day of pre-sales. [1080 v 4662]

0.0768x of Endgame after 1 day of pre-sales. [1150 v 14975]

*Captain Marvel and Solo started late in the day so I rolled it over to the next day.

 

So, yeah.  Large CBMs have been doing a lot of sales on Day 1 recently. :)

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27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

0.0768x of Endgame after 1 day of pre-sales. [1150 v 14975]

Christ, what nonsense. I don’t imagine Endgame day one presales are a useful comp for basically any movie ever.      

 

Also, pretty sure I’m got a refined understanding of these things now, and this means  

28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

.4106x of Solo on an adjusted basis after 1+ days of pre-sales.* [1080 v 2630]

35M OW confirmed?

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16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Christ, what nonsense. I don’t imagine Endgame day one presales are a useful comp for basically any movie ever.  

Not until Avengers 5, at least.

16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 Also, pretty sure I’m got a refined understanding of these things now, and this means  

35M OW confirmed?

Nah, fam, I just track opening night.  So it's 5.75m in previews confirmed. ;)

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Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday

Love, Simon 863 1,256 2,907  

Blockers 504 1,106 2,931  

I Feel Pretty 871 1,610 4,423  

Life Of The Party 587 1,310 3,010  

Book Club 836 1,599 3,283  

Oceans 8 3,009 4,372 11,114  

Purge (Wed) 2,885 8,308    

Mamma Mia 2 4,427 5,099 12,117 17,226

A Simple Favor 564 2,126 4,410 10,381

Night School 1,045 1,756 3,566  

A Star Is Born 9,115 11,383 22,641 21,501

Bohemian Rhapsody 7,255 9,026 12,546 26,476

Creed II (Wed) 6,712 12,083 15,354 15,870
Robin Hood (Wed) 1,602 1,846 2,621 2,632

Upside 394 1,431 3,669 8,602

Happy Death Day 2U (Wed) 1,296 1,843 5,445 5,825

Little 673 1,098 2,450 5,760

The Hustle 485 1,012 2,316 3,024

Rocketman 1,158 3,088 6,634 11,522

Annabelle Comes Home (Wed) 2,390      
Yesterday 791      

 

Annabelle

Monday

36% of Creed II (12.7M 3-Day, 19.9M 5-Day)

149% of Robin Hood (13.7M 3-Day, 21.3M 5-Day)

83% of The First Purge (14.4M 3-Day, 25.9M 5-Day)

184% of Happy Death Day 2U (17.5M 3-Day, 24.3M 5-Day)

 

Day 9-2

83% of The First Purge (14.4M 3-Day, 26M 5-Day)

 

Even if you want to argue Toy Story and Lion King are causing deflation (which I kind of doubt), this seems very poor. I would think that it would at least match Purge's numbers. But hey, anything can happen.

 

Yesterday

92% of Love, Simon (10.8M)

26% of Ocean's 8 (10.9M)

95% of Book Club (12.8M)

91% of I Feel Pretty (14.6M)

68% of Rocketman (17.6M)

117% of Little (18.1M)

163% of The Hustle (21.2M)

140% of A Simple Favor (22.5M)

135% of Life of the Party (24.1M)

201% of The Upside (40.9M)

 

This is not as bad as I thought. Still disappointing, as I thought it would be a breakout hit after the first trailer, but numbers in the teens isn't all that bad.

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Movie/Date

Monday

Spider-Man FFH 3,982
  8 days
   
The Lion King 11,161
  25 days

 

Far From Home

Day 15-8

33% of Captain Marvel (51.3M)

Day 22-8

36% of Captain Marvel (55.8M)

 

I don't have time to do more comps (gotta big one to worry about), but... this might not break out? I dunno.

 

Lion King

First day of presales

567% of Incredibles 2 (1B)

96% of Fallen Kingdom (142.4M)

186% of Captain Marvel (286.2M)

372% of Toy Story 4 (450.4M)

567% of Incredibles 2 (1B)

1299% of Aladdin (1.2B 3-Day, 1.5B 4-Day) (Endgame deflation occurred at this time)

 

Day 25

154% of Infinity War (396.3M)

1752% of Incredibles 2 (3.2B)

515% of Captain Marvel (789.9M)

1299% of Aladdin (1.2B 3-Day, 1.5B 4-Day) (Endgame deflation occurred at this time)

 

So like with every other movie, the first day always points to crazy results. We need to wait about a week or so before we have anything definitive, but this is a very strong day. I would have loved for this to beat Fallen Kingdom or Far From Home, but beggars can't be choosers. Of course, the question is whether this can keep up the momentum. We'll have to wait and see for a couple of weeks to see if that's the case.

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14 hours ago, Menor said:

A few thoughts. If it hits 80-85k I would say that should be more indicative of a low 30s OD, reason being that compared to say Ant-man and the Wasp a lot of online sales that would have gone to previews would go to OD, so it's best to compare combined previews and OD, which for Ant-man was 81k. I'm not sure that CM is a good comp at all given that TS4 is still shifting large numbers of tickets, which will skew the Pulse numbers kinda low for Spidey (meanwhile, AMATW did have to deal with some of I2 and JW2's later weekends throughout the runup to its own OW), but if we use CM as a comp then it would imply more like a <20 OD which seems ridiculous to me. For the same reason, I think that OD will continue to be a huge percentage of Pulse sales, as it's acting like a combined previews+OD for online ticket buyers, which should help get OD to ~120k. That's the only way I can explain the trend that we're seeing on Pulse with the ridiculous Tuesday frontloading. If it does get to 120k I'd expect an OD of 45-50 comparing with the 81k of AMATW (which had 33 million previews+OD). 

how ffh is doing ?

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Posted (edited)

I know we're comparing a Tuesday opener to a Friday opener but that Spider-Man comp is worrisome. 

Edited by Fanboy

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1 minute ago, Fanboy said:

I know we're comparing a Wednesday opener to a Friday opener but that Spider-Man comp is worrisome. 

tuesday opener

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Just now, john2000 said:

tuesday opener

Yeah realised that just after I posted it.

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