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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Also, Endgame is getting a bigger bump in sales than I anticipated. It's sales for FSS are way higher than anything except TS4, Annabelle, and Yesterday. I don't know how much of a bump it'll get but it isn't gonna be a total whiff.

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BUY TIME	       TICKETS	 MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-06-25 15:00:00	1096	Toy Story 4
2019-06-25 15:00:00	329	Annabelle Comes Home
2019-06-25 15:00:00	175	Aladdin (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	158	Childs Play (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	144	Men in Black International
2019-06-25 15:00:00	130	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	128	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-06-25 15:00:00	101	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	89	Toy Story 4 3D
2019-06-25 15:00:00	75	Rocketman
2019-06-25 15:00:00	63	The Lion King (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	61	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-06-25 15:00:00	53	Toy Story 4 The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-25 15:00:00	51	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	50	Anna (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	46	Shaft (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	45	Dark Phoenix
2019-06-25 15:00:00	42	Yesterday (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	20	Late Night (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	13	Kinky Boots the Musical
2019-06-25 15:00:00	12	Spider-Man Far From Home The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	12	Annabelle Comes Home The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-25 15:00:00	12	Spider-Man Far From Home 3D (2019)
2019-06-25 15:00:00	11	Agent Sai Srinivas Athreya
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Spidey OW PS(PS over past 3 hours)

4527    2019-07-01    MON    Spider-Man Far From Home (59)
29994    2019-07-02    TUE    Spider-Man Far From Home (469)
6588    2019-07-03    WED    Spider-Man Far From Home (129)
4222    2019-07-04    THU    Spider-Man Far From Home (61)
4302    2019-07-05    FRI    Spider-Man Far From Home  (70)
4683    2019-07-06    SAT    Spider-Man Far From Home   (37)
1990    2019-07-07    SUN    Spider-Man Far From Home    (24)


Quick thoughts as I am keeping an eye on Spidey PS. The run rate is around 300 per hour which is over 7K per day(though it will slow down at night and so its more like 6K). Its ahead of Cap Marvel on similar days( T-7th) as that was a friday for Marvel. So today and tomorrow it should have lot stronger PS. Starting day after CM went on a tear. Spidey will slow down on fri/sat which is T-3/4. Then the PS picks up on sunday.

 

OD is slightly more than half the ticket sales( 469/894 looking at opening week for 3 hours). it needs to hit 10K per day next 2 days to make up for slow down on fri/sat. Strong reviews should help drive PS.

 

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5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spidey OW PS(PS over past 3 hours)

4527    2019-07-01    MON    Spider-Man Far From Home (59)
29994    2019-07-02    TUE    Spider-Man Far From Home (469)
6588    2019-07-03    WED    Spider-Man Far From Home (129)
4222    2019-07-04    THU    Spider-Man Far From Home (61)
4302    2019-07-05    FRI    Spider-Man Far From Home  (70)
4683    2019-07-06    SAT    Spider-Man Far From Home   (37)
1990    2019-07-07    SUN    Spider-Man Far From Home    (24)


Quick thoughts as I am keeping an eye on Spidey PS. The run rate is around 300 per hour which is over 7K per day(though it will slow down at night and so its more like 6K). Its ahead of Cap Marvel on similar days( T-7th) as that was a friday for Marvel. So today and tomorrow it should have lot stronger PS. Starting day after CM went on a tear. Spidey will slow down on fri/sat which is T-3/4. Then the PS picks up on sunday.

 

OD is slightly more than half the ticket sales( 469/894 looking at opening week for 3 hours). it needs to hit 10K per day next 2 days to make up for slow down on fri/sat. Strong reviews should help drive PS.

 

plus the ww premiere is tommorrow too so that will help

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6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spidey OW PS(PS over past 3 hours)

4527    2019-07-01    MON    Spider-Man Far From Home (59)
29994    2019-07-02    TUE    Spider-Man Far From Home (469)
6588    2019-07-03    WED    Spider-Man Far From Home (129)
4222    2019-07-04    THU    Spider-Man Far From Home (61)
4302    2019-07-05    FRI    Spider-Man Far From Home  (70)
4683    2019-07-06    SAT    Spider-Man Far From Home   (37)
1990    2019-07-07    SUN    Spider-Man Far From Home    (24)


Quick thoughts as I am keeping an eye on Spidey PS. The run rate is around 300 per hour which is over 7K per day(though it will slow down at night and so its more like 6K). Its ahead of Cap Marvel on similar days( T-7th) as that was a friday for Marvel. So today and tomorrow it should have lot stronger PS. Starting day after CM went on a tear. Spidey will slow down on fri/sat which is T-3/4. Then the PS picks up on sunday.

 

OD is slightly more than half the ticket sales( 469/894 looking at opening week for 3 hours). it needs to hit 10K per day next 2 days to make up for slow down on fri/sat. Strong reviews should help drive PS.

 

what is your estimate for OD ... ??? 85K to 90K or you will go with @menor numbers Over 100K ...

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4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spidey OW PS(PS over past 3 hours)

4527    2019-07-01    MON    Spider-Man Far From Home (59)
29994    2019-07-02    TUE    Spider-Man Far From Home (469)
6588    2019-07-03    WED    Spider-Man Far From Home (129)
4222    2019-07-04    THU    Spider-Man Far From Home (61)
4302    2019-07-05    FRI    Spider-Man Far From Home  (70)
4683    2019-07-06    SAT    Spider-Man Far From Home   (37)
1990    2019-07-07    SUN    Spider-Man Far From Home    (24)


Quick thoughts as I am keeping an eye on Spidey PS. The run rate is around 300 per hour which is over 7K per day(though it will slow down at night and so its more like 6K). Its ahead of Cap Marvel on similar days( T-7th) as that was a friday for Marvel. So today and tomorrow it should have lot stronger PS. Starting day after CM went on a tear. Spidey will slow down on fri/sat which is T-3/4. Then the PS picks up on sunday.

 

OD is slightly more than half the ticket sales( 469/894 looking at opening week for 3 hours). it needs to hit 10K per day next 2 days to make up for slow down on fri/sat. Strong reviews should help drive PS.

 

Problem for FFH is this week it's basically impossible for it to go on a tear like CM did because TS4 is shifting huge numbers of tickets. TS4 has sold 34158 tickets on Pulse for today, that makes it very difficult for anything else to do that kind of number.

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29 minutes ago, Menor said:

Also, Endgame is getting a bigger bump in sales than I anticipated. It's sales for FSS are way higher than anything except TS4, Annabelle, and Yesterday. I don't know how much of a bump it'll get but it isn't gonna be a total whiff.

great point. Last week it was barely selling anything for the weekend. But back then there were very few showtimes listed for Endgame weekend. I looked at NY, SF and LA and most theaters have 2 or 3 shows listed except Pacific Lakewood center(near LA) where endgame has 8 shows listed for friday.

 

There is definitely going to be a boost on friday but its going to be short-lived one. Plus i don’t see any PLF shows for Endgame.

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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

great point. Last week it was barely selling anything for the weekend. But back then there were very few showtimes listed for Endgame weekend. I looked at NY, SF and LA and most theaters have 2 or 3 shows listed except Pacific Lakewood center(near LA) where endgame has 8 shows listed for friday.

 

There is definitely going to be a boost on friday but its going to be short-lived one. Plus i don’t see any PLF shows for Endgame.

probably, the friday will have the biggest boost

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3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Problem for FFH is this week it's basically impossible for it to go on a tear like CM did because TS4 is shifting huge numbers of tickets. TS4 has sold 34158 tickets on Pulse for today, that makes it very difficult for anything else to do that kind of number.

Today its discount tuesday and so TS4 will pull in huge numbers. But tomorrow you should see PS going down 30% for TS4 and so Spidey has to pick up the slack. Especially if reviews are out tomorrow.

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3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Problem for FFH is this week it's basically impossible for it to go on a tear like CM did because TS4 is shifting huge numbers of tickets. TS4 has sold 34158 tickets on Pulse for today, that makes it very difficult for anything else to do that kind of number.

its 37,492 now ....  

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Today its discount tuesday and so TS4 will pull in huge numbers. But tomorrow you should see PS going down 30% for TS4 and so Spidey has to pick up the slack. Especially if reviews are out tomorrow.

Reviews out Thursday. Also Endgame boost (whatever size it is) will be the whole 3-day weekend imo, the Saturday and Sunday ps are way higher than all but the 3 I mentioned as well as Friday.

Edited by Menor
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Just now, keysersoze123 said:

great point. Last week it was barely selling anything for the weekend. But back then there were very few showtimes listed for Endgame weekend. I looked at NY, SF and LA and most theaters have 2 or 3 shows listed except Pacific Lakewood center(near LA) where endgame has 8 shows listed for friday.

 

There is definitely going to be a boost on friday but its going to be short-lived one. Plus i don’t see any PLF shows for Endgame.

Not gonna provide a running commentary as they appear, but EG popped up at Century Blue Oaks (one of the other A-tier theaters in the region).

 

Still just one screen, three showings.  But this time it landed in one of the larger auditoriums it has.  Now none of the auditoriums at Blue Oaks are exactly huge (long boring story I've alluded to before), but it does appear to be in one of their 100+ seat ones, which is in their upper range.

 

Now the final schedules aren't up yet, so EG might swipe another screen here and there at some locations.  But I also think that theater owners might be looking toward Sat and Sun as well and reckoning the Marvel die-hards will see it over the weekend.  Especially with FFH looming on Tuesday.

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14 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

what is your estimate for OD ... ??? 85K to 90K or you will go with @menor numbers Over 100K ...

I am find it difficult to see it go that high. but @Menor has been on the point and so better to believe him. it needs to hit at least 50K by sunday. Friday/Saturday will not have the pace movies normally have in final week. So that is 20K opening day tickets over next 4 days and change. Overall ticket sales have to hit 40K for that to happen. So it needs at least 20K over next 2 days while maintaining ok pace on fri/sat for that to happen. Tough but not impossible. its definitely accelerating as expecting from yesterday.

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4 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

its 37,492 now ....  

good ?

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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Reviews out Thursday. Also Endgame boost (whatever size it is) will be the whole 3-day weekend imo, the Saturday and Sunday ps are way higher than all but the 3 I mentioned as well as Friday.

I wish they released reviews tomorrow but thursday it is. Need to hit 12K+ on that day. Tomorrow probably around 8K.

 

for Endgame you are right but in absolute terms numbers are still tiny.

 

434	2019-06-28	FRI	Avengers: Endgame
238	2019-06-29	SAT	Avengers: Endgame
114	2019-06-30	SUN	Avengers: Endgame

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2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am find it difficult to see it go that high. but @Menor has been on the point and so better to believe him. it needs to hit at least 50K by sunday. Friday/Saturday will not have the pace movies normally have in final week. So that is 20K opening day tickets over next 4 days and change. Overall ticket sales have to hit 40K for that to happen. So it needs at least 20K over next 2 days while maintaining ok pace on fri/sat for that to happen. Tough but not impossible. its definitely accelerating as expecting from yesterday.

Wait, are we talking about the number before OD (i.e., OD sales at end of Monday), or are we talking about the final Pulse number after OD (final at the end of Tuesday)? The latter is what I'm saying will hit 120-130k, it won't get close to that before the day-of.

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8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

good ?

its huge .. 62% more than monday  (23,148)

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6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Wait, are we talking about the number before OD (i.e., OD sales at end of Monday), or are we talking about the final Pulse number after OD (final at the end of Tuesday)? The latter is what I'm saying will hit 120-130k, it won't get close to that before the day-of.

I am looking till tuesday. I am just comparing with CM on a day by day to see where it can end up. There are only so many tickets it can sell on the last day for that day.

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