The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just so you know, this just happened to me on Deadline when I was pulling up an old article for research and it wasn't happening when you asked. 

 

What happened to me is the article loaded for about three seconds, then disappeared and I was sent straight to the comments section.

 

So quite possibly something weird on their end.

Yep. That's what happened to me.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Yeah, I threw out 4m as a guesstimate of an upper bound if it ended up doing a bit more than 2x of Crimes of Grindelwald's Limited Engagement showings which did 1.8m.

 

Still kinda fumbling around in the dark here, but I'm personally keeping that 1.8m in mind as a yardstick due to the limited nature of the showings.

Why is it limited. Had the shows that were listed almost sold out then we would have seen more. But even big ticket theaters like AMC Empire and Lincoln Square, AMC Metreon Imax have not sold out. Lincoln Square is doing the best(around 70% sold) while few Dolby screens in NYC have sold good amount of tickets.

 

Amazingly SM3 12 years back order of magnitude greater hype. Back then with limited imax and no PLF it did 10m midnights. That had sellouts far ahead of the release. I remember seeing SM2 in a regular midnight in 2004 sold out in NH. Despite Holland having strong reception and Endgame driven buzz its far from heydey of Raimi movies.

 

I feel in a way Endgame is holding it back as much as helping it.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

The reported numbers above (past 24h) is just a sample or the total?

That is from Fandango report page. Overall tickets sold for respective dates. @Menor is thinking 120K  OD+midnights for Spidey.

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I think you are way over-estimating the number of showings out there for FFH midnights.

I guess I mixed up some things. I, in my mind, had FB 2 sneaks at $3.5mn Approx. So thought, FFH can do double of those by the final day.

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why is it limited. Had the shows that were listed almost sold out then we would have seen more. But even big ticket theaters like AMC Empire and Lincoln Square, AMC Metreon Imax have not sold out. Lincoln Square is doing the best(around 70% sold) while few Dolby screens in NYC have sold good amount of tickets.

I’m comparing FFH to the Tuesday Night Sneaks of Fantastic Beasts 2, which I believe were  officially called ‘limited engagements’ or something like that.

 

I know that if demand is there, there can be more more midnights, as they just expanded here in Sacto.

 

Only real reason I’m using that as a comp is that I feel the low number of showings overall for FB2’s sneaks makes it a pretty decent comp versus the ones I have that are in the 90 or more showings range.

19 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I guess I mixed up some things. I, in my mind, had FB 2 sneaks at $3.5mn Approx. So thought, FFH can do double of those by the final day.

Deadline had it at 1.8m in their FB2 OW coverage and I haven’t found a source saying differently.

 

Eyeballng the number of tickets sold locally, looks to be more or less in the right range when compared to traditional previews.

[PKMLover]

https://www.fandango.com/dataviz/#

Top 5

TS4

ANABELLE

SPIDEY

EG

TLK

Dont know what this top 5 mean

Edited June 26, 2019 by PKMLover

[fabiopazzo2]

The real question is, can SM FFH open on tuesday over 35M? 

[john2000]

17 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

The real question is, can SM FFH open on tuesday over 35M? 

 menor is saying 45-50+ but again it depends

Edited June 26, 2019 by john2000

[fabiopazzo2]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

you werent in this thread much werent you ? 

No

[john2000]

1 minute ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

No

i fixed it

[Sunny Max]

7 hours ago, PKMLover said:

This is presale for Friday?

Look at the date ... this is for Tuesday ...

[Sunny Max]

BUY TIME	      TICKETS	 MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-06-26 02:00:00	143	Toy Story 4
2019-06-26 02:00:00	109	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	81	Annabelle Comes Home
2019-06-26 02:00:00	63	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	30	Yesterday (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	27	The Lion King (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	16	Childs Play (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	15	Aladdin (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	10	Spider-Man Far From Home The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	6	Toy Story 4 The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-26 02:00:00	6	Men in Black International
2019-06-26 02:00:00	6	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-06-26 02:00:00	6	Toy Story 4 3D
2019-06-26 02:00:00	5	The Last Black Man in San Francisco
2019-06-26 02:00:00	5	The Lion King The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	5	Spider-Man Far From Home 3D (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	4	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-06-26 02:00:00	4	Midsommar
2019-06-26 02:00:00	4	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	4	The Lion King An IMAX 3D Experience (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	3	RUSH Cinema Strangiato 2019
2019-06-26 02:00:00	3	The Lion King 3D (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	3	Rocketman
2019-06-26 02:00:00	2	Spider-Man Far From Home -- An IMAX 3D Experience
2019-06-26 02:00:00	2	Dark Phoenix
2019-06-26 02:00:00	2	Whisper of the Heart – Studio Ghibli Fest 2019
2019-06-26 02:00:00	2	Met Summer Encore La Bohéme (2019)
2019-06-26 02:00:00	2	Booksmart
2019-06-26 02:00:00	2	Stuber

[Litio]

1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

The real question is, can SM FFH open on tuesday over 35M? 

For sure. The Amazing Spider Man did $35m on a tuesday OD 7 years ago and its total was $262m. Spider Man 8 is going be higher and likely more frontloaded.

7 hours ago, gary said:

 

Is that good ? and what does fdg mean ?

Yes, with $3m, I can see $40m+ 5-day happening. Walkups were strong yesterday.

fdg = fandango 😅

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Litio said:

For sure. The Amazing Spider Man did $35m on a tuesday OD 7 years ago and its total was $262m. Spider Man 8 is going be higher and likely more frontloaded.

Yes, with $3m, I can see $40m+ 5-day happening. Walkups were strong yesterday.

fdg = fandango 😅

Not sure about more front loaded unless you're speaking just to o/w numbers.  Yes TLK is coming but ASM also had TDKR and a -68.6% 3rd w/e drop.

[Sunny Max]

BUY TIME	      TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-06-26 06:00:00	172	Toy Story 4
2019-06-26 06:00:00	58	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	54	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	48	Annabelle Comes Home
2019-06-26 06:00:00	44	Yesterday (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	30	The Lion King (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	22	Aladdin (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	11	Toy Story 4 3D
2019-06-26 06:00:00	11	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-06-26 06:00:00	10	Spider-Man Far From Home The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	7	Men in Black International
2019-06-26 06:00:00	6	Toy Story 4 The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-26 06:00:00	6	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-06-26 06:00:00	6	Rocketman
2019-06-26 06:00:00	5	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	5	Spider-Man Far From Home 3D (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	4	Childs Play (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	4	Dark Phoenix
2019-06-26 06:00:00	3	Anna (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	3	Shaft (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	3	Kinky Boots the Musical
2019-06-26 06:00:00	2	Kabir Singh
2019-06-26 06:00:00	2	The Dead Dont Die
2019-06-26 06:00:00	2	Spider-Man Far From Home -- An IMAX 3D Experience
2019-06-26 06:00:00	2	The Lion King 3D (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	2	Midsommar
2019-06-26 06:00:00	2	Annabelle Comes Home The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-26 06:00:00	2	Met Summer Encore La Bohéme (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	1	RUSH Cinema Strangiato 2019
2019-06-26 06:00:00	1	Halston (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	1	Kalki (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	1	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
2019-06-26 06:00:00	1	Late Night (2019)
2019-06-26 06:00:00	1	Met Summer Encore Aida (2019)

[Eric Duncan]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Love, Simon

863

1,256

2,907

I Feel Pretty

871

1,610

4,423

Life Of The Party

587

1,310

3,010

Book Club

836

1,599

3,283

Oceans 8

3,009

4,372

11,114

Purge (Wed)

2,885

8,308

A Simple Favor

564

2,126

4,410

10,381

Creed II (Wed)	6,712	12,083	15,354	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1,846	2,621	2,632

Upside

394

1,431

3,669

8,602

Happy Death Day 2U (Wed)

1,296

1,843

5,445

5,825

Little

673

1,098

2,450

5,760

The Hustle

485

1,012

2,316

3,024

Rocketman

1,158

3,088

6,634

11,522

Annabelle Comes Home (Wed)

2,390

8,460

Yesterday

791

1,420

Annabelle

Tuesday

102% of The First Purge (17.7M 3-Day, 31.8M 5-Day)

70% of Creed II (24.9M 3-Day, 39.2M 5-Day)

458% of Robin Hood (42.1M 3-Day, 65.5M 5-Day)

459% of Happy Death Day 2U (43.6M 3-Day, 60.6M 5-Day)

 

Day 9-1

95% of The First Purge (16.4M 3-Day, 29.6M 5-Day)

 

So yesterday was pretty trash, but this was a great jump, although previews obviously helped a little bit. However, I feel like the Purge comps are the best bet for the time being.

 

Yesterday

67% of A Simple Favor (10.7M)

46% of Rocketman (11.8M)

89% of Book Club (12.1M)

113% of Love, Simon (13.3M)

32% of Ocean's 8 (13.5M)

88% of I Feel Pretty (14.1M)

140% of The Hustle (18.2M)

108% of Life of the Party (19.4M)

129% of Little (19.9M)

99% of The Upside (20.2M)

 

This did...okay. Nothing great, but it did fine enough to still stay above the double digits and would still be an okay number.

[Eric Duncan]

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Spider-Man FFH	3,982	5,105
	8 days	7 days
The Lion King	11,161	3,366
	25 days	24 days

 

Far From Home

Day 15-7

38% of Captain Marvel (58.4M)

Day 22-7

40% of Captain Marvel (61M)

 

This was a good increase. Interested to see what the next few days have in store.

 

Lion King

First two days of presales

95% of Fallen Kingdom (141M)

103% of Captain Marvel (157.5M)

306% of Toy Story 4 (370.5M)

943% of Aladdin (863.1M 3-Day, 1.1B 4-Day) (Endgame deflation occurred at this time)

498% of Incredibles 2 (909.8M)

 

Day 25-24

103% of Infinity War (265.1M)

391% of Captain Marvel (600.3M)

943% of Aladdin (863.1M 3-Day, 1.1B 4-Day) (Endgame deflation occurred at this time)

1233% of Incredibles 2 (2.2B)

 

Some of you might be a bit concerned over the movie "crashing", but that happens to every movie on the second day. Gotta admit, I do think the movie following Fallen Kindgom so closely is...interesting. I don't know if it means anything at the moment, but it's interesting.

[Litio]

32 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Not sure about more front loaded unless you're speaking just to o/w numbers.  Yes TLK is coming but ASM also had TDKR and a -68.6% 3rd w/e drop.

More like OD/Total, but I'm not sure, that's why I think is just likely. I mean, sales in fandango are pretty heavy for tuesday shows:

4804	2019-07-01	MON	Spider-Man Far From Home
31702	2019-07-02	TUE	Spider-Man Far From Home
7055	2019-07-03	WED	Spider-Man Far From Home

[Valonqar]

TLK will open with over 200M 3 day and FFH will have well over 200M 6 days. 

[cdsacken]

Agreed on TLK. FFH maybe