The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Molek said:

@Porthos  Lion King tickets are decreasing relative to the others. Hopefully they can increase again.

It's one day.  Never read too much into one day. 

 

(usually )

 

Quote

$18m previews (TS4)

$25m previews (Aladdin)

$25m previews (JW:FK)

 

Which is best comp?

Too soon to say four days in, IMO. My gut instinct says 20m+ though, simply by showtimes.

 

Split the difference and call it 21.5m?   Nah.  Really too soon to say.

Edited June 28, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

The other thing is, I don't have that great of a handle on TLK yet (and no MT.com anymore [apparently] and Fandango being down today doesn't help matters).

 

On the one hand, local sales are pointing to a super-sized family movie.  I haven't tracked that many family movies and only one that cleared 10m in previews.

 

On the other hand, local theaters are expecting boffo business given the sheer number of showtimes they've already scheduled.

 

On yet another hand, locally theaters went super nutso for Captain Marvel in showtimes, cresting over 200 locally.  Yet that 'only' did 20.7m nationwide after clearly over-performing locally.

 

So here's what I can say about TLK:

 

It's had a very strong start, both locally and nationally.

Theaters are expecting a LOT of business given showtimes set aside.

There's no guarantee all those showtimes will fill up to the level some theaters might hope.

 

As time goes on, I'll get a better handle on it.  But for now: It's doing very well.  How well remains to be seen.

 

Edited June 28, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

Yesterday + The Lion King

Thursday Previews

(Featuring Avengers Friday)

 

In Full Disclosure, I 100% forgot it was Thursday.  I didn't get Yesterday's final numbers.  Last tracked, it stood at:

 

Yesterday	Sold	Total	%
	344	682	50.43%

 

Rocketman sold 470 seats at LS13 on its Thursday Previews.  It pulled in nationally 1.75M.  The incomplete data would comp out to about 1.2M. But Rocketman had more Thursday Previews than Yesterday.  I say anything over 900k for this would be a victory.  

 

Onto Captain America: Endgame (The We Love Tony Stark 3000 Remix):

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
	2.24	2.26	2.27	Total	%	Sold
Avengers (Friday)	N/A	53	47	438	10.73%	-6
Lincoln Square 13
Avengers (Friday)	N/A	206	198	922	21.47%	-8

 

So, either there's a glitch in the Atom App or people canceled moved around their plans.  Lincoln Square makes me pause more than Cinemagic.  Cinemagic's STILL crazy pre-sold, so I would be shocked if those theaters don't fill up tomorrow.

 

And lastly, The Lion King

 

The Lion King
	2.24	6.26	6.27	Total	%	Sold
Lincoln Square	1002	1116	1144	6472	17.67%	28
Cinemagic	12	37	43	2434	1.76%	6

 

Slow day despite impressive overall numbers for the theaters.  I think Porthos' comments about "playing like a super-sized family film that the theaters are hoping performs like a Marvel Movie" is spot on.  I would also not be shocked or worried if this slooooows down until after the holiday.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

I’m surprised TLK is being compared to Fallen Kingdom for an interesting reason in terms of presales. But what about the first Jurassic World? Since that one had a record-breaking OW and kept it for half the year in 2015. And that was more nostalgia-driven.

[RamblinRed]

Here are the pre-sales this morning for AE around me. One thing to keep in mind, if it was a wide release it would be in about 9 theaters around me, it is in 5. Most of the theaters are doing 3 shows a day. A lunchtime show, late afternoon and one at night. One theater is squeezing in 4 shows a day.

Movie Tavern after Saturday is dropping it to 2 shows a day and keeping it at that through July4th week.

 

Movie Tavern 12

Fri 3/108, 6/108, 38/108

Sat 1/108, 11/108, 27/108

Sun 4/108, 0/108 (only 2 showings on Sunday)

 

Regal Cherokee 16

Fri 9/77, 5/77, 8/77

Sat 8/77, 2/77, 8/77

Sun 9/77, 2/77, 2/77

 

Regal Town Center 16

Fri 5/212, 7/212, 22/106, 9/139

Sat 5/212, 6/212, 4/106, 2/139

Sun 6/212, 5/212, 0/106, 0/139

 

AMC Barrett 24

Fri 2/216, 0/216, 14/216

Sat 2/216, 6/216, 6/216

Sun 0/216, 5/216, 1/216

 

Merchants Walk 14

Fri 0/61, 4/61, 13/61

Sat 2/61, 4/61, 6/61

Sun 2/61, 4/61, 0/61

 

I just look at these numbers and think the theaters are going to want to get rid of this pretty quickly. Doesn't really seem to be selling around me at all. I only have 3 shows out of 47 right now that have sold over 20 tickets, only 6 that have sold over 10.

 

How many tickets had it sold on Fandango before that stopped reporting numbers? was it about 6,000?

I also am wondering if it is going to do well in some areas but poorly in others. There are reports from some on this site that it is selling well around them, but that is not the case for me. I only have 1 show out of 47 that has sold more than 25% of its seats.

 

 

[PKMLover]

28 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Here are the pre-sales this morning for AE around me. One thing to keep in mind, if it was a wide release it would be in about 9 theaters around me, it is in 5. Most of the theaters are doing 3 shows a day. A lunchtime show, late afternoon and one at night. One theater is squeezing in 4 shows a day.

Movie Tavern after Saturday is dropping it to 2 shows a day and keeping it at that through July4th week.

 

Movie Tavern 12

Fri 3/108, 6/108, 38/108

Sat 1/108, 11/108, 27/108

Sun 4/108, 0/108 (only 2 showings on Sunday)

 

Regal Cherokee 16

Fri 9/77, 5/77, 8/77

Sat 8/77, 2/77, 8/77

Sun 9/77, 2/77, 2/77

 

Regal Town Center 16

Fri 5/212, 7/212, 22/106, 9/139

Sat 5/212, 6/212, 4/106, 2/139

Sun 6/212, 5/212, 0/106, 0/139

 

AMC Barrett 24

Fri 2/216, 0/216, 14/216

Sat 2/216, 6/216, 6/216

Sun 0/216, 5/216, 1/216

 

Merchants Walk 14

Fri 0/61, 4/61, 13/61

Sat 2/61, 4/61, 6/61

Sun 2/61, 4/61, 0/61

 

I just look at these numbers and think the theaters are going to want to get rid of this pretty quickly. Doesn't really seem to be selling around me at all. I only have 3 shows out of 47 right now that have sold over 20 tickets, only 6 that have sold over 10.

 

How many tickets had it sold on Fandango before that stopped reporting numbers? was it about 6,000?

I also am wondering if it is going to do well in some areas but poorly in others. There are reports from some on this site that it is selling well around them, but that is not the case for me. I only have 1 show out of 47 that has sold more than 25% of its seats.

 

 

It was at 5994 (FSS) on Fagando becore the site was down.

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

Edited June 28, 2019 by PKMLover

[Ledmonkey96]

4 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

I’m surprised TLK is being compared to Fallen Kingdom for an interesting reason in terms of presales. But what about the first Jurassic World? Since that one had a record-breaking OW and kept it for half the year in 2015. And that was more nostalgia-driven.

I vaguely remember pre-sales pointing towards maybe 100-120mil OW for JW

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

You know what I also love about Atom? That they don't shut down their public box office ticket samples for maintenance, and force some weirdo with an affection for the twink from CMBYN and feels weirdly obligated to track the numbers said sample generates for a box office forum and a random movie subreddit to wait until it gets fixed again, and being forced to check every hour, hoping that somehow the public box office ticket sample just magically starts working again. Atom would never do that. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

@Menor what will be your most optimistic prediction based on pulse for Endgame this weekend.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor what will be your most optimistic prediction based on pulse for Endgame this weekend.

Idk because yesterday and today's sales would've been very important to project that. Hopefully it gets back up soon.

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor what will be your most optimistic prediction based on pulse for Endgame this weekend.

 

Looking at the anecdotal numbers from my theater, the most I’d see is $225m 6-day. I’m thinking $200-210m though.

[john2000]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

Looking at the anecdotal numbers from my theater, the most I’d see is $225m 6-day. I’m thinking $200-210m though.

FOR endgame, not spiderman

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, john2000 said:

FOR endgame, not spiderman

 

My mistake. I can’t even predict Endgame based on my theater because we didn’t expand the show count. Did 13 shows last weekend, only have 9 set up for this weekend.

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Looking at the anecdotal numbers from my theater, the most I’d see is $225m 6-day. I’m thinking $200-210m though.

That would be pretty solid got EG

 

 

yeah I'm good with 200+ for Spidey (200+ in China total is happening). Eg 5-8m

[FlashMaster659]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 118/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 147/203

9:00 PM - 147/203

12:00 AM - 31/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 25/78

6:30 PM - 6/63

7:00 PM - 10/78

8:45 PM - 14/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 2/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 0/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 0/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 35/63

8:00 PM - 31/61

8:30 PM - 33/63

10:45 PM - 9/63

11:15 PM - 0/61

11:45 PM - 0/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 18/44

6:15 PM - 9/55

6:30 PM - 37/217

6:45 PM - 4/48

7:00 PM - 11/79

7:15 PM - 5/44

7:45 PM - 5/44

8:00 PM - 14/45

8:15 PM - 6/167

8:30 PM - 0/45

8:45 PM - 2/44

9:00 PM - 0/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 0/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

745(+65)/5158 (14.4%)

 

*These shows are glitched sell-outs. However because of the pattern the showtimes form, it's safe to assume how many seats are in the theater and the zero have been sold so far based on how other shows around that time are doing.

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 127/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 148/203

9:00 PM - 148/203

12:00 AM - 33/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 25/78

6:30 PM - 6/63

7:00 PM - 11/78

8:45 PM - 14/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 2/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 0/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 0/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 35/63

8:00 PM - 33/61

8:30 PM - 33/63

10:45 PM - 9/63

11:15 PM - 15/61

11:45 PM - 2/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 18/44

6:15 PM - 11/55

6:30 PM - 42/217

6:45 PM - 4/48

7:00 PM - 11/79

7:15 PM - 5/44

7:45 PM - 5/44

8:00 PM - 14/45

8:15 PM - 8/167

8:30 PM - 0/45

8:45 PM - 2/44

9:00 PM - 8/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 0/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

795(+50)/5158 (15.4%)

 

1.4121x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 after 4 days of pre-sales

 

*These shows are glitched sell-outs. However because of the pattern the showtimes form, it's safe to assume how many seats are in the theater and the zero have been sold so far based on how other shows around that time are doing.

[FlashMaster659]

On 6/26/2019 at 11:29 AM, FlashMaster659 said:

Avengers: Endgame Re-Expansion - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

2D

 

10:45 AM - 29/55

12:00 PM - 5/114

3:00 PM - 26/55

4:00 PM - 15/114

7:15 PM - 36/55

10:00 PM - 28/48

10:45 PM - 3/114

 

Total

 

142/555 (25.6%)

 

Avengers: Endgame Re-Expansion - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

2D

 

10:45 AM - 36/55

12:00 PM - 44/114

3:00 PM - 30/55

4:00 PM - 43/114

7:15 PM - 37/55

10:00 PM - 29/48

10:45 PM - 31/114

 

Total

 

250(+108)/555 (45.0%)

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Avengers: Endgame Re-Expansion - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

2D

 

10:45 AM - 36/55

12:00 PM - 44/114

3:00 PM - 30/55

4:00 PM - 43/114

7:15 PM - 37/55

10:00 PM - 29/48

10:45 PM - 31/114

 

Total

 

250(+108)/555 (45.0%)

good ?

[Tinalera]

London ontario canada

 

The lion king

London silvercity thursday july 18

IMAX
645 0/321
1030 9/321

Recliner
655 47/111
720 7/111
820 10/111
945 2/111
1010 0/111

Westmount

Recliner

630 15/146
700 7/101
930 5/146
1000 3/101

These numbers are decent for here. I think its still a bit far away for a lot of people up here. I expect next week or so to pick up
 

Edited June 28, 2019 by Tinalera

[FlashMaster659]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

good ?

Looks pretty good to me

[Sunny Max]

57 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

London ontario canada

 

The lion king

London silvercity thursday july 18

IMAX
645 0/321
1030 9/321

Recliner
655 47/111
720 7/111
820 10/111
945 2/111
1010 0/111

Westmount

Recliner

630 15/146
700 7/101
930 5/146
1000 3/101

These numbers are decent for here. I think its still a bit far away for a lot of people up here. I expect next week or so to pick up
 

Yeah decent numbers ... but need to pickup