The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cdsacken]

23 minutes ago, Nova said:

Let me take my boards and pass 

*These next few days are gonna feel like 84 years 😢

 

-Sucks I’ve had to miss the tracking of Spider-man leading up to its OW but fingers crossed I can watch it’s box office run. Keep up the good work guys! 

Medical boards? Good luck! My wife is a physician assistant. 

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

45 tickets sold so far.  In total.  Out of  6000+ available.  Only 47 showings regionwide right now.

 

It is 34 days away with two major blockbusters in-between it.  But right now, hardly anyone cares.

 

...

 

Don't expect regular H&S updates is more or less what I am sayin'.  Better than even odds I don't give an official update tonight.

*does a quick count for tonight*

 

 

Spoiler

55/6156

 

...

 

Don't expect updates for a while iz what I iz sayin'.  Perhaps ever. 

 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*does a quick count for tonight*

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

55/6156

 

...

 

Don't expect updates for a while iz what I iz sayin'.  Perhaps ever. 

 

Evil MiniPorthos:  But, boss, you're forgetting something about Hobbs & Shaw.

Porthos:  What's that, Evil MiniMe?

Evil MiniPorthos: It's gonna be totally walkup based.

Porthos: 

Evil MiniPorthos (as he's being dragged out the room): WORTH IT!!!!!

 

Edited June 29, 2019 by Porthos

[Premium George]

Can anybody provide me deep wang sheet?

If my memory serves me right, and going by 3xMTC for total pre sales. Endgame, TFA, TLJ, BatB did $180m, $108m, $96m, $36m in total pre sales. That's 2x, 2.3x, 2.4x and 5x psm. IW, 2.5x.

Now, I think TLK will be closer to batb than to those other massive movies. Let's go with 4x. It needs to do $50m in total pre sales or $17m in MTC to have a $200m OW. Half of EG, TFA, IW, TLJ. It don't need to do massive pre sales for huge OW. IMO.

 

[Geo1500]

6 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Can anybody provide me deep wang sheet?

If my memory serves me right, and going by 3xMTC for total pre sales. Endgame, TFA, TLJ, BatB did $180m, $108m, $96m, $36m in total pre sales. That's 2x, 2.3x, 2.4x and 5x psm. IW, 2.5x.

Now, I think TLK will be closer to batb than to those other massive movies. Let's go with 4x. It needs to do $50m in total pre sales or $17m in MTC to have a $200m OW. Half of EG, TFA, IW, TLJ. It don't need to do massive pre sales for huge OW. IMO.

 

 

Hard to know any details as of yet until Spiderman cloud clears and that is 1 week post spiderman. Things will become more clear but as of now it's foggy. The audience will probably first frontload FFH and then TLK in that order. The fog should clear 1 week post FFH

Edited June 29, 2019 by Geo1500

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	2642	3445	23.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      78

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

1.2626x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 3 days before their showings.

 

T-3 days:

FB2 sneaks        9 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 763/1399 seats left  |  45.46% sold]

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	175	17583	19334	9.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      79

 

Unadjusted Comps

6.1873x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after five days of pre-sales.

3.2366x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after five days of pre-sales.

3.3608x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after five days of pre-sales.

1.4271x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 after five days of pre-sales.

 

Day 5:

Pika         19 tickets sold [0 sellouts/72 showings |     7726/8009 seats left     |  3.53% sold]

Aladdin   51 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |     9232/9773 seats left     |  5.54% sold]

KotM       51 tickets sold [0 sellouts/82 showings  |  10705/11226 seats left   |  4.64% sold]

TS4       108 tickets sold [0 sellouts/89 showings  |  10971/12198 seats left   | 10.06% sold]

NOTE:  Some theaters sold tickets for a couple of days for KotM before being officially announced for sale.

 

Adjusted Comps

1.5592x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after five days of pre-sales.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 5:

JW2              97 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/97 showings   |     9058/10113 seats left  | 10.43% sold]

TLK (JW)       77 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/175 showings  |  15681/17326 seats left  |   9.05% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

 

===

 

Decent chance I accidentally gave 20 extra tickets to TLK yesterday as one showing 'lost' 20 seats sold today, which was the exact number of one of the rows the showing in question had.  But it got 'deducted' out of today's total, so it's a wash in the end.  So it could be that TLK had 78 ticket sales yesterday locally (instead of 98) and 79 today (instead of 59).  No way to know, but in the end fairly irrelevant.  

 

Nope.  Undercounted two showings by 20 seats which finally caught up to me.  Adjusted the seats sold upward by 20 seats and the seats available by 40.  See full explanation here.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

Avengers: Endgame

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
	2.28	Total	%
Avengers (Friday)	103	438	23.51%
Lincoln Square 13
Avengers (Friday)	338	922	36.65%

 

• Solid showings. Lincoln Square's probably a little higher because I forgot that it started at 10AM, so that's the 10AM data from yesterday.  I will track Saturday and Sunday as well.

The Lion King

 

The Lion King
	6.24	6.26	6.27	6.28	Total	%	Sold
Lincoln Square	1002	1116	1144	1182	6472	18.26%	38
Cinemagic	12	37	43	45	2434	1.84%	2

• Stayed almost flat today.  No sales for the standard showings at Lincoln Square.  Only 2 sales at the Recliner Theater in the Cinemagic Chain.

Hobbs & Shaw:

 

Hobbs & Shaw
	6.28	Total
Lincoln Square	65	1318
Cinemagic	10	1423

• Not terrible for being almost a month away and zero big push for sales.  

Couple Notes:

• I'm not doing Far From Home counts as (1) they won't serve any purpose for future comps and (2) Lincoln Square always overperforms for big movies.
   
• Depending on how long Pulse/AVK stays down, I MIGHT entertain the idea of doing Final Sale Reports for Thursday Previews at Empire 25, but I zero interest (or time) in doing daily tracking it on a tri-weekly basis as I do Lincoln Square.  (It really depends on how much I want it for Frozen and Star Wars comps.)

 

[Molek]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

6.1166x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after five days of pre-sales.

3.1996x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after five days of pre-sales.

3.3225x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after five days of pre-sales.

1.4108x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 after five days of pre-sales.

1.5403x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after five days of pre-sales.

$34.9m (Pikachu)

$22.4m (Aladdin)

$20.9m (Godzilla)

$16.9m (TS4)

$23.6m (JW:FK)

 

Not liking how it's slipping.  Do you have an idea as to why that might be?

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Molek said:

Do you have an idea as to why that might be?

Films slow down after they first start.

Far From Home is sucking up a lot of attention and pre-sales.

It wasn't going to do 300m OW (probably).

 

Mostly #2 in my book. 

 

But, and I really hope we don't need to have this discussion so soon after TS4, if it comes in around BatB and does 175m OW that'd be really really really good.  Not as good as some stratospheric expectations of some board members.  But it'd still be very very good. 

 

Hell, I don't exactly think Disney would cry too much at 150/480/1200 for that matter (not that I'm suggesting that, but simply using Variety's initial tracking number and slapping some reasonable multis on them). 

 

The board would flip out of course.  But I tend to think Disney would take it with good enough grace.

Edited June 29, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

5 hours ago, Molek said:

$34.9m (Pikachu)

$22.4m (Aladdin)

$20.9m (Godzilla)

$16.9m (TS4)

$23.6m (JW:FK)

 

Not liking how it's slipping.  Do you have an idea as to why that might be?

 

Don't worry about it for now. TS4 is taking a decent amount of the family film business and FFH is taking another good portion of the hype/presale business. Once the smoke clears on FFH (after opening weekend, July 8th) I expect an uptick in sales.

Again, don't expect some insane previews number. My target is still $20 million. Anything over that is just gravy. 

[Molek]

15 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

  My target is still $20 million. Anything over that is just gravy. 

What's your internal multi prediction? I think it will be right around 10.0x, so that's a 200m OW. Your Titanic club won't happen with that. I think Titanic requires at least 220 and that's assuming Jungle Book legs and Aladdin-like OS split. 

[FlashMaster659]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 127/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 148/203

9:00 PM - 148/203

12:00 AM - 33/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 25/78

6:30 PM - 6/63

7:00 PM - 11/78

8:45 PM - 14/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 2/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 0/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 0/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 35/63

8:00 PM - 33/61

8:30 PM - 33/63

10:45 PM - 9/63

11:15 PM - 15/61

11:45 PM - 2/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 18/44

6:15 PM - 11/55

6:30 PM - 42/217

6:45 PM - 4/48

7:00 PM - 11/79

7:15 PM - 5/44

7:45 PM - 5/44

8:00 PM - 14/45

8:15 PM - 8/167

8:30 PM - 0/45

8:45 PM - 2/44

9:00 PM - 8/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 0/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

795(+50)/5158 (15.4%)

 

1.4121x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 after 4 days of pre-sales

 

*These shows are glitched sell-outs. However because of the pattern the showtimes form, it's safe to assume how many seats are in the theater and the zero have been sold so far based on how other shows around that time are doing.

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 129/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 149/203

9:00 PM - 152/203

12:00 AM - 35/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 20/78

6:30 PM - 10/63

7:00 PM - 11/78

8:45 PM - 14/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 2/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 0/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 0/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 35/63

8:00 PM - 33/61

8:30 PM - 37/63

10:45 PM - 12/63

11:15 PM - 15/61

11:45 PM - 2/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 18/44

6:15 PM - 11/55

6:30 PM - 42/217

6:45 PM - 4/48

7:00 PM - 11/79

7:15 PM - 5/44

7:45 PM - 7/44

8:00 PM - 16/45

8:15 PM - 8/167

8:30 PM - 4/45

8:45 PM - 2/44

9:00 PM - 8/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 2/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

820(+25)/5158 (15.9%)

 

*These shows are glitched sell-outs. However because of the pattern the showtimes form, it's safe to assume how many seats are in the theater and the zero have been sold so far based on how other shows around that time are doing.

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2019/06/spider-man-far-from-home-box-office-opening-worldwide-avengers-endgame-1202639877/

 

Sony is safely projecting $125M over 6-days for Far From Home at 4,500 venues down from the $154M they first spotted on tracking four weeks ago.

 

As is typical, rivals and some trackers are still betting Far From Home rises to $140M-plus over six days, and there are plenty of indicators for this.

 

Following this weekend’s flood of cash for Far From Home from three territories, the industry is seeing the sequel’s first international weekend (which is Monday-Sunday given the offshore rollout pattern) at $160-$170M this coming week. Again, that doesn’t include any figures from China, Japan and Hong Kong. All in by July 7, Far From Home could count $335M+ overseas alone with its global tally in the first 10 days conceivably at $460M+.

[Legion Again]

125 is a joke.

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/06/spider-man-far-from-home-box-office-opening-worldwide-avengers-endgame-1202639877/

 

Sony is safely projecting $125M over 6-days for Far From Home at 4,500 venues down from the $154M they first spotted on tracking four weeks ago.

 

As is typical, rivals and some trackers are still betting Far From Home rises to $140M-plus over six days, and there are plenty of indicators for this.

 

Following this weekend’s flood of cash for Far From Home from three territories, the industry is seeing the sequel’s first international weekend (which is Monday-Sunday given the offshore rollout pattern) at $160-$170M this coming week. Again, that doesn’t include any figures from China, Japan and Hong Kong. All in by July 7, Far From Home could count $335M+ overseas alone with its global tally in the first 10 days conceivably at $460M+.

Disappointing numbers if at all accurate

 

[Doctor Stark]

Far From Home’s 6-day barely above Homecoming’s 3-day? Yeah... no.

[XXR vs XXR]

25 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/06/spider-man-far-from-home-box-office-opening-worldwide-avengers-endgame-1202639877/

 

Sony is safely projecting $125M over 6-days for Far From Home at 4,500 venues down from the $154M they first spotted on tracking four weeks ago.

 

As is typical, rivals and some trackers are still betting Far From Home rises to $140M-plus over six days, and there are plenty of indicators for this.

 

Following this weekend’s flood of cash for Far From Home from three territories, the industry is seeing the sequel’s first international weekend (which is Monday-Sunday given the offshore rollout pattern) at $160-$170M this coming week. Again, that doesn’t include any figures from China, Japan and Hong Kong. All in by July 7, Far From Home could count $335M+ overseas alone with its global tally in the first 10 days conceivably at $460M+.

 

I don't see the numbers coming in that low....

But then again, we're 3 days away from Midnight/OD and my theater is still below Captain Marvel's previews total. Grain of salt as with all cases, but the numbers are interesting. 

[PKMLover]

7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I don't see the numbers coming in that low....

But then again, we're 3 days away from Midnight/OD and my theater is still below Captain Marvel's previews total. Grain of salt as with all cases, but the numbers are interesting. 

What about EG's saturday? Bad or good sign?

[ThomasNicole]

Sony must be avoiding another TS4 situation

 

But these numbers are excessive low, presales indicate around $ 170 - 180M if i remember correctly, more being possible depending on the next days.