The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

End of an era. Be interesting to see how accurate the replacements we can find are. I’m particularly interested in Menor’s Cinemark scraping.

[raulbalarezo]

July 5 Estimates
Updated Thursday afternoons
 

<< Prev. Week < Last Year	View Index	Next Year > Next Week >>
Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Week # > NEW RELEASES 1 - Spider-Man: Far from Home Sony / Columbia 4,500 - - 1
<< Prev. Week < Last Year	View Index	Next Year > Next Week >>

 

4,500+ For FFH, HUGE, second highest theater count in MCU only behind Endgame

Edited July 1, 2019 by raulbalarezo

[Cap]

So going forward unless mana from Heaven appears, or until @Menor gets their tracker up, it's back to theater counts.  I won't deny this sucks, but I think we're in pretty good shape.  Just take a look at the Top Grossing Theaters Domestically this year:

 

Top Theaters for Avengers: Endgame (Source: @RtheEnd)

Quote

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

Quote

Top USA

1-AMC Empire 25, NYC
(combined with E-walk over 1m)
2-AMC Orange 30, Orange CA
3-AMC Lincoln Square, NYC
4-AMC Burbank 30
5-Regal Irvine Spectrum
6-Regal Kaufman Astoria, NY
7-AMC Garden State 16, Paramus NJ
8-Pacific Arclight, Los Angeles CA
(huge result 50% of combo Arclight+El Capitan + TCL Chinese)
9-Regal Ontario Palace
(combined with Ontario Mills #2)
10-Regal Atlantic Station, Atlanta GA
11-AMC Deer Park NY
12-AMC Boston Commons
13-Regal Houston Marq Stadium
14-Regal South Gate CA
15-Regal LA Live 

Top Canada
1-CPLX Winston Churchill, Oakville ON

2-CPLX Scotiabank Toronto

3-CPLX Banque Scotia Montreal

4-CPLX Queensway Etobicoke ON

5-CPLX Vaughan ON 

 

Top Theaters for Captain Marvel

Quote

Top USA
1-AMC Burbank

2-AMC Empire 25, NYC
(Combined with E-Walk #1, Empire over 2x E-Walk)
Even with E-walk now playing some movies same as Empire 25, Empire still retain #1 complex in Country since 2002
If you combine it with E-walk it and absolute monster

3-AMC Disney Spring, Orlando FL
4-CPLX Queensways, Etobicoke ON
5-AMC Lincoln Square, NYC
6-AMC Metreon , San Francisco
7-CM Mountain View CA
8-Regal Warren , Moore OK
9-AMC Tysons Corner, Mclean VA
10-AMC Alderwood, Lynwood WA
11-Regal Kaufman Astoria, Astoria NY
12-CPLX Silvercity, Brampton ON

Ontario Mills + Ontario Palace combined would rank #6

 

Top Canada
1-CPLX Queensways, Etobicoke ON

2-CPLX Silvercity, Brampton ON

3-CPLX Vaugham ON

4-CPLX Yonge Dundas, Toronto ON

5-CPLX Mississauga ON

 

@FlashMaster659 covers Ontario Mills, @VenomXXR covers Houston, @Tinalera covers Canada, @TalismanRing has info on Regal and NYC theaters, I cover Lincoln Square, and of course, @Porthos has all us beat with his Sacramento Data. 

 

So all is not completely lost.  We still should have a handle on what's happening, even if we aren't getting Menor's insanely accurate predictions.

 

And to paraphrase a dear friend, "If we knew the exact numbers beforehand, where would be the fun in that?"

Edited July 1, 2019 by captainwondyful

[keysersoze123]

This thread is way beyond just Pulse numbers though that was dominating part of the conversation.

 

If we can even track Top 10 cities all reserved theaters, we will get useful data. But its very intensive process that requires co-ordinated effort. Otherwise we are left with any tracking reports on trade sites and hope Wang can update us now and then.

 

I am sure fandango/Atom will have some kind of tracker on tickets sold. If its not raw data they might go back to % tickets sold(like how MT used to do). These are tools to trigger excitement on audience visiting website/app.

 

@Porthos one way to confirm if the whole thing is taken down is to side load older version of the app and see if it still works. But that looks unlikely as dativiz page is not working.

[Porthos]

When it comes right down to it, the biggest hit here isn't going to be for new releases of big films, as that generally has been covered fairly well and with a decent comp history stretching back years.

 

The hit here is on the smaller releases and holdovers.  Smaller releases take the most effort which means fewer people do it (and bless those that do, BTW, as I couldn't stomach the idea of doing it myself).

 

And of course even thinking about looking at holdovers without some sort of scraper is probably another definition of insanity and I wouldn't suggest anyone do it for anything but the biggest/most important of films.

 

I know there is gonna be a temptation to dive in here, and I welcome it.  I just don't want folks to bite off more than they can chew here and burn themselves out.  That's really the worst thing that can happen, IMO.

 

===

 

The other major hit here is history.  It take a while to build up a decent comp base and so there might be something of an adjustment period if folks do decide to look at smaller releases.

 

Either way, this thread will adapt and evolve.  Just might be a bit rocky and turbulent in the transition.

[cdsacken]

What we thinking for midnight, 1.75m?

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

@Porthos one way to confirm if the whole thing is taken down is to side load older version of the app and see if it still works. But that looks unlikely as dativiz page is not working.

I had the old version of the app last week.  When i tried to access, it, it would constantly flash a loading data message but nothing else.  That's when I presumed it was just having maintenance (and said as much in the the thread). 

 

It was only when I updated the app today did I discover the Pulse field was removed entirely.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

What we thinking for midnight, 1.75m?

If Sacto is any guide, much higher. Feeling 3m is kinda likely right now. Gonna do a mid-day check in a bit.

[Porthos]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Just as a heads up, there MIGHT be a sight change of showings for Far From Home and a radical change of showings for The Lion King.  

 

One of the local theaters that is non-reserved seating (Century Folsom) had about 95% of its future schedule nuked at some point today.  It still has most of Monday's schedule up, but for some reason the two FFH midnights it had are now missing. For this coming Tue through next Thursday (the 11th), it only has FFH listed (except for one rando indie film on the 10th).

 

It then has three rando indie films on the 17th, and one on the 29th and nothing else.  ALL of The Lion King showings that HAD been scheduled are now gone.  Including the 14 I had listed for that theater for opening night.

 

Frankly, I don't know what's going on here.  It's probably a glitch on the theater end.  But there is a chance the theater might be closing down, presumably for renovations.  Or it could be closing ticketing for a spell to upgrade to reserved seating.

 

Either way, I'm leaving things "as is" for the moment.  If the midnights don't pop back up tomorrow, I will have to remove them from the final report for FFH I make tomorrow.  No big loss since they are non-reserved and are only around for historical comparisons.

 

I'll probably leave it "as is" as well on the TLK side for a couple of days.  But if they don't pop back up soon OR I find out what is going on over there, I'll remove the 14 showings from the listings.  

 

So consider this a heads up that the TLK showings might go down for a spell.  If they do, nothing to worry about as it's on a theater wide end as opposed to anything to do with TLK.

*checks Century Folsom*

 

Turned out to be a one day glitch as they're all now back on the schedule.  Weird, but whatevas. 

[That One Girl]

So what you guys are saying is that Fandango has no pulse?

[FlashMaster659]

23 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Spider-Man: Far From Home - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Tuesday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

9:00 AM - 149/203

12:30 PM - 160/203

4:00 PM - 170/203

7:30 PM - 183/203

11:00 PM - 154/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

11:00 AM - 33/63

12:00 PM - 34/78

2:30 PM - 17/63

3:30 PM - 31/78

6:00 PM - 44/63

7:00 PM - 54/78

9:30 PM - 32/63

10:30 PM - 24/78

 

RealD 3D

 

10:00 AM NEW - 0/167

10:30 AM NEW - 0/114

1:30 PM NEW - 10/167

5:00 PM NEW  - 0/167

8:30 PM - 80/167

9:00 PM NEW - 0/114

12:00 AM NEW - 0/167

12:30 AM NEW - ?/?*

 

2D Spanish-Subtitled (NEW)

 

2:00 PM NEW - ?/?*

5:30 PM NEW - ?/?*

 

2D

 

9:30 AM - 133/217

11:30 AM - 129/167

1:00 PM - 167/217

3:00 PM - 136/167

4:30 PM - 170/217

6:30 PM - 145/167

8:00 PM - 181/217

10:00 PM - 135/167

11:30 PM - 109/217

 

Total

 

2480(+497)/4562(+1063) (54.4%)

 

*These are glitched sellouts and because I cannot tell what theaters they are in or how many seats are sold, they will not be included in the total unless the glitch is fixed.

 

Spider-Man: Far From Home - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Tuesday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

9:00 AM - 159/203

12:30 PM - 165/203

4:00 PM - 171/203

7:30 PM - 184/203

11:00 PM - 158/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

11:00 AM - 36/63

12:00 PM - 41/78

2:30 PM - 17/63

3:30 PM - 35/78

6:00 PM - 43/63

7:00 PM - 54/78

9:30 PM - 35/63

10:30 PM - 27/78

 

RealD 3D

 

10:00 AM - 11/167

10:30 AM - 0/114

1:30 PM - 10/167

5:00 PM  - 4/167

8:30 PM - 96/167

9:00 PM - 11/114

12:00 AM - 0/167

12:30 AM - ?/?*

 

2D Spanish-Subtitled

 

2:00 PM - 6/114

5:30 PM - 20/114

 

2D

 

9:30 AM - 170/217

11:30 AM - 132/167

1:00 PM - 173/217

3:00 PM - 137/167

4:30 PM - 172/217

6:30 PM - 144/167

8:00 PM - 187/217

10:00 PM - 138/167

11:30 PM - 117/217

 

Total

 

2653(+173)/4790(+228) (55.4%)

 

*This is a glitched sellout and because I cannot tell what theater it is in or how many seats are sold, it will not be included in the total unless the glitch is fixed.

[cdsacken]

28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

If Sacto is any guide, much higher. Feeling 3m is kinda likely right now. Gonna do a mid-day check in a bit.

Old news I guess from what I was thinking based on limitations from showings. Thats great news!

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:45pm - 12:55pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	2468	3745	34.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:     180

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

1.5275x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks at final report.

(i didn't do a mid-day update for FB2's sneaks)

 

Final:

FB2 sneaks   154 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 563/1399 seats left  |  59.76% sold]

 

====

 

Doing an adjusted comp against Venom 's mid-day I get 3.2m.

Doing straight comp against Captain Marvel's mid-day I get 2.93m.

Doing an adjusted comp against Ant-Man and the Wasp's mid-day I get 3.56m.

Doing a straight comp against Endgame's mid-day I get 3.03m.

Doing a straight comp against FB2's final numbers for its sneaks*, I get 2.75m.  But since I have about 11 hours of sales, that number is gonna go up a lot.

* 1.8m according to Deadline.

Thinking 3m+ now.  We'll see how high it gets as the day goes on.

Edited July 1, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

So what you guys are saying is that Fandango has no pulse?

[XXR vs XXR]

48 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

July 5 Estimates
Updated Thursday afternoons
 

<< Prev. Week < Last Year	View Index	Next Year > Next Week >>
Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Week # > NEW RELEASES 1 - Spider-Man: Far from Home Sony / Columbia 4,500 - - 1
<< Prev. Week < Last Year	View Index	Next Year > Next Week >>

 

4,500+ For FFH, HUGE, second highest theater count in MCU only behind Endgame

 

Could surpass 4600. Endgame was touted at 4400 and hit 4667. I don’t see FFH going that high, but I can see 4575+

[Deep Wang]

4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

I guess we need @Deep Wang more desperately now than ever before. It was a bit strange to me how Fandango was just spewing so much of their data out into the world for us — the weird thing is how they let it be for so long.

[keysersoze123]

Release is super wide for sure.

Was looking at OD for couple of NYC theaters and ticket sales are amping up.

 

Spoiler

Regal E Walk

4DX - 45(37)/134(110PM),66(52)/134(420PM), 108(101)/134 (730PM), 47(39)/134 (1040PM)  +37
RPX - 48(49)/213 (11AM), 14(5)/213 (210PM), 59(33)/213(520PM), 119(104)/213 (830PM), 4(0)/  213 (1140PM) +53
2D - 22(14)/209 (12PM), 45(17)/209 (310PM), 152(132)/209 (620PM), 60(46)/209 (930PM) +70

+160(since last update)

 

AMC Empire 25

Imax 3D - 246(239)/303 (445PM) +7

Imax 2D - 154(137)/303(1015), 225(215)/303 (130PM), 278(275)/303 (8PM), 141(107)/303 (1115PM) +64

Dolby - 146(117)/225 (930AM), 182(169)/225 (1245PM), 198(195)/225(4PM),  216(217)/225(715PM),207(202)/225 (1030PM)   +49

Prime 3D - 27(8)/180 (9AM), 73(59)/180 (12PM), 118(91)/180 (315PM), 155(154)/180 (630PM), 125(122)/180 (945PM)   +64

2D - 43(30)/262 (A17 10AM), 40(12)/144(A20 Man 10AM), 68(53)/377(A13 1045 AM),  89(55)/309(A9 1130AM), 71(13)/309(A14 115PM), 17(9)/144 (A20 Kor 1PM), 75(42)/377(A13 2PM), 98(66)/309(A9 245PM), 21(12)/144(A20 Spa 415PM), 127(79)/262 (A17 430PM) 280(192)/377 (A13 515PM), 252(236)/309(A9 6PM), 111(88)/144 (A20 Man 730PM),  208(189)/262(A17 745PM), 299(285)/377 (A13 830PM), 214(177)/309 (A9 915PM), 22(20)/262(A17 11PM), 23(22)/144 (A20 Man 1045PM) , 38(33)/377(A13 1145PM) + 484

+668 (since last update)

 

[fabiopazzo2]

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/can-spiderman-far-from-home-rescue-a-lagging-summer-box-office-1203256610/

 

[Legion Again]

Just now, fabiopazzo2 said:

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/can-spiderman-far-from-home-rescue-a-lagging-summer-box-office-1203256610/

 

This is like those 200-250 nonsense for Endgame 

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, captainwondyful said:

So going forward unless mana from Heaven appears, or until @Menor gets their tracker up, it's back to theater counts.  I won't deny this sucks, but I think we're in pretty good shape.  Just take a look at the Top Grossing Theaters Domestically this year:

 

Top Theaters for Avengers: Endgame (Source: @RtheEnd)

 

Top Theaters for Captain Marvel

 

@FlashMaster659 covers Ontario Mills, @VenomXXR covers Houston, @Tinalera covers Canada, @TalismanRing has info on Regal and NYC theaters, I cover Lincoln Square, and of course, @Porthos has all us beat with his Sacramento Data. 

 

So all is not completely lost.  We still should have a handle on what's happening, even if we aren't getting Menor's insanely accurate predictions.

 

And to paraphrase a dear friend, "If we knew the exact numbers beforehand, where would be the fun in that?"

Im definitely up for doing some Canada. Sounds like weve got enough canadians here to make things interesting