The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[jedijake]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Yes but that’s after it destroys everything in its path 

 

Then falls off the cliff. 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Yes but that’s after it destroys everything in its path 

 

 

Poor Hobbs & Shaw. 

 

Spoiler

Don't worry, the clip is from a simulation.

 

[Yandereprime101189]

29 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Then falls off the cliff. 

It most likely won't though

[Eric Atreides]

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	105	2,725	19,193	14.20%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Sold Today: 257

 

To compare, this sold exactly 10 less tickets from yesterday, which is...interesting. On the one hand, with reviews out, that should have helped build more buzz and awareness, making people more aware it's coming out and possibly buy their tickets in advance, so it should have probably increased. But on the other hand, with reviews being mixed, that could be considered a turn-off for consumers. Therefore, having the film only slightly decline, and still generate boffo numbers is...good? People don't care and are still interested in getting tickets?

 

I dunno. I guess staying close to 267 is better than moving far below it.

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	105	2,725	19,193	14.20%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Sold Today: 257

 

To compare, this sold exactly 10 less tickets from yesterday, which is...interesting. On the one hand, with reviews out, that should have helped build more buzz and awareness, making people more aware it's coming out and possibly buy their tickets in advance, so it should have probably increased. But on the other hand, with reviews being mixed, that could be considered a turn-off for consumers. Therefore, having the film only slightly decline, and still generate boffo numbers is...good? People don't care and are still interested in getting tickets?

 

I dunno. I guess staying close to 267 is better than moving far below it.

 😲😲😲Nvm. People will see for themselves on opening weekend. 

Edited July 12, 2019 by Guest

[ThomasNicole]

Reception from Chinese audiences are good so far. Excellent? No, but pretty good, just a little below Aladdin.

 

8.8 on Maoyan, it should drop to around 8.6 finish (TJB have 8.9 and Aladdin have 9.0)

 

I think we'll see something like that across the world, not the spectacular reception some are expecting, but still pretty good and far from the mixed bag coming from reviews.

[UserHN]

19 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Reception from Chinese audiences are good so far. Excellent? No, but pretty good, just a little below Aladdin.

 

8.8 on Maoyan, it should drop to around 8.6 finish (TJB have 8.9 and Aladdin have 9.0)

 

I think we'll see something like that across the world, not the spectacular reception some are expecting, but still pretty good and far from the mixed bag coming from reviews.

8.8 is average/so-so. But at the very least, it's not a disaster.

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Reception from Chinese audiences are good so far. Excellent? No, but pretty good, just a little below Aladdin.

 

8.8 on Maoyan, it should drop to around 8.6 finish (TJB have 8.9 and Aladdin have 9.0)

 

I think we'll see something like that across the world, not the spectacular reception some are expecting, but still pretty good and far from the mixed bag coming from reviews.

It's an average reaction. 9.0+ means good and 9.2+ very good to excellent. 

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	225	19422	23416	3994	17.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       16 (2 non reserved seating)

Total Seats Added Today:          1721

Total Seats Sold Today:               289

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.2399x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 7 days before release.

3.3991x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 7 days before release.

3.9623x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 7 days before release.

1.8866x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 7 days before release.

 

T-7:

Pika       66 seats sold [0 sellouts/66 shows |   6631/7573 seats    |   942 seats sold | 12.44% sold]

Aladdin  98 seats sold [0 sellouts/74 shows |  9543/10718 seats   | 1175 seats sold |  10.96% sold]

KotM    102 seats sold [0 sellouts/98 shows | 12732/13740 seats  | 1008 seats sold |   7.34% sold]

TS4      158 seats sold   [1 sellout/92 shows | 10342/12459 seats  | 2117 seats sold | 16.99% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.8393x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 7 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-7:

JW2         122 seats sold [0 sellouts/111 shows |   9272/11263 seats | 1991 seats sold | 17.68% sold]

TLK (JW)  280 seats sold [0 sellouts/225 shows | 16468/20130 seats | 3662 seats sold | 18.19% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Molek]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	225	19422	23416	3994	17.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       16 (2 non reserved seating)

Total Seats Added Today:          1721

Total Seats Sold Today:               289

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.2399x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 7 days before release.

3.3991x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 7 days before release.

3.9623x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 7 days before release.

1.8866x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 7 days before release.

 

T-7:

Pika       66 seats sold [0 sellouts/66 shows |   6631/7573 seats    |   942 seats sold | 12.44% sold]

Aladdin  98 seats sold [0 sellouts/74 shows |  9543/10718 seats   | 1175 seats sold |  10.96% sold]

KotM    102 seats sold [0 sellouts/98 shows | 12732/13740 seats  | 1008 seats sold |   7.34% sold]

TS4      158 seats sold   [1 sellout/92 shows | 10342/12459 seats  | 2117 seats sold | 16.99% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.8393x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 7 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-7:

JW2         122 seats sold [0 sellouts/111 shows |   9272/11263 seats | 1991 seats sold | 17.68% sold]

TLK (JW)  280 seats sold [0 sellouts/225 shows | 16468/20130 seats | 3662 seats sold | 18.19% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

I'm guessing its momentum has been killed by those reviews since it stayed flat. Kind of expecting the comps to decrease to around 20 by previews night now instead of increase to 30 like was being indicated with the previous increases. This could have been so much bigger with good reviews...

[Porthos]

Reviews affected sales in Sacto, IMO.  Not so much causing them to go down a lot, as one can see.  But the gobs of tickets that I sometimes see grabbed in the immediate aftermath of a review drop were still sitting there.

 

This was more consistent sales across the board in the 'prime' viewing hours, if with a couple of occasional spikes of group sales.  

 

Part of it is also the sheer number of showings, even in 'prime time'.  Just so many showings out there that even two here and four there adds up after a while.

 

I'd call it a "pretty good" day in Sacramento relative to some expectations.  An outright fantastic one compared to all other family movies of course.  But it didn't continue the acceleration that started a couple of days ago.  

 

FWIW it passed the final number of tickets sold for Aladdin (3900) today.  Got a bit further to go to catch TS4 though (6706).

 

For other comparisons:

 

CM sold  190 tickets seven days out.

EG sold   240 tickets seven days out.

DP2 sold 119 tickets seven days out (versus an adj 280 tickets sold)

IW sold    359 tickets seven days out (versus an adj 280 tickets sold)

 

And comps if folks want them, for what they're worth:

 

0.8527x Captain Marvel    (17.65m)

0.2051x Endgame             (12.31m)

1.0659x Solo (adj)             (15.03m)

1.1980x Deadpool 2 (adj)  (22.28m) 

0.4568x Infinity War (adj)  (17.81m) 

 

And this is what they were a couple of days ago:

 

On 7/9/2019 at 11:35 PM, Porthos said:

In case peeps are curious, still can't comp TLK against CBMs even nine days out.

 

.7704x Captain Marvel   (15.95)

.1774x Endgame            (10.64)

.8766x Solo (adj)            (12.36)

.3788x Infinity War (adj) (14.77)

 

Only one that really works is:

1.0114x Deadpool 2 (adj)  (18.81)

Still going up, as expected.

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Molek said:

I'm guessing its momentum has been killed by those reviews since it stayed flat. Kind of expecting the comps to decrease to around 20 by previews night now instead of increase to 30 like was being indicated with the previous increases. This could have been so much bigger with good reviews...

Well, here's the thing.  It's still doing FANTASTIC compared to all other family movies.  

 

I kinda want to stress that.

 

Also, I didn't see 30m in the cards based on local numbers.  Not unless this got something like Black Panther level reviews.  I could have seen it hitting 25m if the trends of the last couple of days of momentum had held though. Maybe even a touch higher.

 

But much beyond that?  Dunno.  Never know, but I would have been surprised, personally.  

Edited July 12, 2019 by Porthos

[Molek]

38 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Well, here's the thing.  It's still doing FANTASTIC compared to all other family movies.  

 

I kinda want to stress that.

 

Also, I didn't see 30m in the cards based on local numbers.  Not unless this got something like Black Panther level reviews.  I could have seen it hitting 25m if the trends of the last couple of days of momentum had held though. Maybe even a touch higher.

 

But much beyond that?  Dunno.  Never know, but I would have been surprised, personally.  

@VenomXXR  pointed out the TS4 comp meant it could hit 35 with continued momentum (obviously it wasn't going to continue at that rate), but I could have envisioned a scenario where it touched 30 following amazing reviews, its momentum would have been quite simply unstoppable.

 

Now it'll do... still great. Don't get me wrong, 20 previews is still fantastic, it's just not as ridiculously huge (Titanic-level) that people were hoping for. Should still easily pass BatB when everything's all said and done, and potentially reach Jurassic World. Mostly in line with what the average predictions were to begin with.

[UserHN]

3 minutes ago, Molek said:

Should still easily pass BatB when everything's all said and done, and potentially reach Jurassic World. Mostly in line with what the average predictions were to begin with.

That's quite optimistic I think. I have it at $1.3B and could leg out to $1.5B, But then, I'm usually cautious in BO predictions. Lol

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Molek said:

@VenomXXR  pointed out the TS4 comp meant it could hit 35 with continued momentum (obviously it wasn't going to continue at that rate), but I could have envisioned a scenario where it touched 30 following amazing reviews, its momentum would have been quite simply unstoppable.

 

The problem here, as I mentioned earlier today, is that TLK got its social media boost earlier than some films so expecting it to keep accelerating over other films which hadn't even had their social media boost, never mind review boost probably was asking a bit much.  My point probably got lost a little in the shuffle earlier today, but I do stand by it.

 

Like I said, if TLK had gotten Black Panther level reviews, then sure, all bets are off.  But Black Panther level reviews are hella rare.  Expecting them and factoring them into your projections...

 

But, well, nothing I saw said 30m at that moment.  I would have needed to seen sustained and continued growth throughout the weekend before I entertained that idea.

[Molek]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 The problem here, as I mentioned earlier today, is that TLK got its social media boost earlier than some films so expecting it to keep accelerating over other films which hadn't even had their social media boost, never mind review boost probably was asking a bit much.  My point probably got lost a little in the shuffle earlier today, but I do stand by it.

 

Like I said, if TLK had gotten Black Panther level reviews, then sure, all bets are off.  But Black Panther level reviews are hella rare.  Expecting them and factoring them into your projections...

 

But, well, nothing I saw said 30m at that moment.  I would have needed to seen sustained and continued growth throughout the weekend before I entertained that idea.

Let's just say (like some others) I was stanning it to crazy levels while you were keeping it purely objective. That's why you are so valuable in this thread  As always I look forward to every update you make as it gets closer to the release. 

[RamblinRed]

if my family is anything to go by i'm not overly concerned with the reviews (Aladdin should have taught as that - as should have any number of other movies that critics didn't love but the GA ate up).

 

My family saw a new commercial last night and almost lost their minds. Rewatched it 4 times. 

I mentioned afterwards the reviews and that it was getting dinged for being just like the original and my family's reaction was good, that is what they want. They want the same songs, the same dialogue, just updated with real looking animals. They would be disappointed if it differed in any significant way from the original.

 

We'll know when we start seeing the scores next Friday.

 

[Stewart]

12 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

if my family is anything to go by i'm not overly concerned with the reviews (Aladdin should have taught as that - as should have any number of other movies that critics didn't love but the GA ate up).

 

My family saw a new commercial last night and almost lost their minds. Rewatched it 4 times. 

I mentioned afterwards the reviews and that it was getting dinged for being just like the original and my family's reaction was good, that is what they want. They want the same songs, the same dialogue, just updated with real looking animals. They would be disappointed if it differed in any significant way from the original.

 

We'll know when we start seeing the scores next Friday.

 

Can confirm the same situation here. All my family want is the original in super duper realistic. 

 

If critics are complaining that nothing significant has been added: Good. That only boosts the potential for this now!

 

I think the GA are very aware that TLK is so massive and significant story-wise, that any significant change would be a bad thing not a good thing.

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

if my family is anything to go by i'm not overly concerned with the reviews (Aladdin should have taught as that - as should have any number of other movies that critics didn't love but the GA ate up).

 

My family saw a new commercial last night and almost lost their minds. Rewatched it 4 times. 

I mentioned afterwards the reviews and that it was getting dinged for being just like the original and my family's reaction was good, that is what they want. They want the same songs, the same dialogue, just updated with real looking animals. They would be disappointed if it differed in any significant way from the original.

 

We'll know when we start seeing the scores next Friday.

 

 

1 minute ago, Stewart said:

Can confirm the same situation here. All my family want is the original in super duper realistic. 

 

If critics are complaining that nothing significant has been added: Good. That only boosts the potential for this now!

 

I think the GA are very aware that TLK is so massive and significant story-wise, that any significant change would be a bad thing not a good thing.

 

If you go on Rotten Tomatoes IG, their post about the reviews is basically everyone saying “Why would we want this to be different?” “It’s a remake it’s supposed to be the same”

 

I get the general impression that most people are going to get exactly what they wanted and expected.

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

 

If you go on Rotten Tomatoes IG, their post about the reviews is basically everyone saying “Why would we want this to be different?” “It’s a remake it’s supposed to be the same”

 

I get the general impression that most people are going to get exactly what they wanted and expected.

good news is also that lion as of now is at 8,9 on maoyan from audience which is good, could hit 9, so as of now i wouldnt worry