The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

The only question will be how much it does pull families over Disney adult fans for comping purposes...will family make up be more akin to a Marvel supers (there, but not the majority) or a Disney animated (much closer to majority, and overwhelming in the legs)...or somewhere in the middle of that...

 

While my kid watches the Aladdin videos every day still (I don't even have to watch the movie anymore - I think I've heard every single song in the movie and its rendition by now thanks to Youtube), he has not watched any Lion King...so more anecdotal evidence for you all...some kids and families love it...but are they on the level of say "Detective Pikachu" or "Toy Story 4"...I guess we'll know in 10 days or so...

Edited July 12, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[jedijake]

I wonder if pre-sales will slow down with the RT score being what it is.

 

Any indication of that happening? If pre-sales stay consistent or rise, then it's a good sign that the RT score is discarded by moviegoers. If they slow down, it could mean something ahead.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

I wonder if pre-sales will slow down with the RT score being what it is.

 

Any indication of that happening? If pre-sales stay consistent or rise, then it's a good sign that the RT score is discarded by moviegoers. If they slow down, it could mean something ahead.

as of now it doesnt seem to have an affect, and even if it does its minimal at best, in other words as of now nothing that you should worry about, we will know more, probably if something serious or noticable happen we will probably know in today or by the end of the weekend, if not then we are good to go

Edited July 12, 2019 by john2000

[Menor the Destroyer]

Lion King Friday presales (as of last night) (+ since this Monday)

Showings: 5631 (+622)

Theaters: 231 (+1)

Tickets Sold: 59930 (+20763)

Estimated ATP: 11.37

Total Estimated Sales: 681314 (+230150)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 6 million (+2 million)

Edited July 12, 2019 by Menor

[john2000]

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

Lion King Friday presales (as of last night) (+ since this Monday)

Showings: 5631 (+622)

Theaters: 231 (+1)

Tickets Sold: 59930 (+20763)

Estimated ATP: 11.37

Total Estimated Sales: 681314 (+230150)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 6 million (+2 million)

good ?

[FlashMaster659]

23 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 146/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 170/203

9:00 PM - 159/203

12:00 AM - 75/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 31/78

6:30 PM - 20/63

7:00 PM - 18/78

8:45 PM - 20/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 7/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 6/55

7:30 PM - 2/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 43/63

10:45 PM - 25/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 20/44

6:15 PM - 30/55

6:30 PM - 64/217

6:45 PM - 3/44

6:45 PM (2) - 0/48

7:00 PM - 39/79

7:15 PM - 23/44

7:45 PM - 18/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 34/167

8:30 PM (1) - 9/45

8:30 PM (2) - 2/114

8:45 PM - 13/44

9:00 PM - 11/49

9:15 PM - 8/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 0/55

9:45 PM - 7/217

10:00 PM (1) - 0/44

10:00 PM - 7/48

10:15 PM - 4/79

10:30 PM - 2/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:15 PM (2) - 0/114

11:30 PM - 16/167

11:45 PM (1) - 0/45

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1195(+69)/4089(-295) (29.2%)

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 146/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 170/203

9:00 PM - 159/203

12:00 AM - 76/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 35/78

6:30 PM - 17/63

7:00 PM - 18/78

8:45 PM - 20/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 7/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 6/55

7:30 PM - 4/167

8:00 PM - 6/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 43/63

10:45 PM - 30/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 22/44

6:15 PM - 32/55

6:30 PM - 68/217

6:45 PM - 3/44

7:00 PM - 42/79

7:15 PM - 25/44

7:45 PM - 22/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 44/167

8:30 PM (1) - 15/45

8:30 PM (2) - 13/114

8:45 PM - 13/44

9:00 PM - 13/49

9:15 PM - 7/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 2/55

9:45 PM - 7/217

10:00 PM - 9/48

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 4/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 16/167

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1261(+66)/4089 (30.8%)

 

1.6043x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 six days before previews

[FlashMaster659]

I've been wondering. When TROS pre-sales start, will the whole "Star Wars is more pre-sale heavy than the MCU" thing still apply when comparing it to Endgame or will Endgame actually be a good comp this time since its pre-sales behaved like a Star Wars movie?

[LookingforMrGoodbar]

At the theater I work at, we were originally booked with Hobbs & Shaw in 3D. Earlier this week, we were told to take them down as the movie was not going to have a 3D print. Luckily no seats had been sold for it. 

 

OUATIH tickets went on sale earlier this week. Pre-openings begin at 4:00pm. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

I've been wondering. When TROS pre-sales start, will the whole "Star Wars is more pre-sale heavy than the MCU" thing still apply when comparing it to Endgame or will Endgame actually be a good comp this time since its pre-sales behaved like a Star Wars movie?

I don't think Endgame will be a good comp for anything, even TROS

[Cap]

39 minutes ago, Menor said:

I don't think Endgame will be a good comp for anything, even TROS

Last TLK to Endgame Comp at Lincoln Square I ran came out to 16.63M for Previews, which feels right.  And theres still room for it to go up.  I think you can use Endgame for TLK, Frozen, and TROS for the rest of the year.

[jedijake]

BOP still hasn't changed TLK's projections from $201/$650 million. Not sure how far in advance they do their projections, but there hasn't been a change amidst the RT reviews.

[john2000]

8 minutes ago, jedijake said:

BOP still hasn't changed TLK's projections from $201/$650 million. Not sure how far in advance they do their projections, but there hasn't been a change amidst the RT reviews.

again the affect will not be significant except of course if the audience dont like, which based from the chinese sites and rating , probably wont happen

[Inceptionzq]

Disregard this

Edited July 12, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Endgame had an estimated total of 120-140M,

I believe this was from several days before, and the final total presales were more in the 150-170M range. @Menor, @Charlie Jatinder, either of you remember clearly?

Edited July 12, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

I think it could be. TFA did 100M total presales, and had an estimated 50-60M for OW. I’ll just settle in the middle for all the ranges. So 55M OW. 

 

Endgame had an estimated total of 120-140M, settling at 130M. No weekend data, but we’ll estimate. TFA probably did a slightly less presales for OW because it was Holiday season, so I’ll do 60% for Endgame. 78M OW. Using those figures, Endgame is a perfect comp for TFA.

 

55/78 = .705

.705 x 357M = 251.7M

 

Now, it’s important to note that I don’t think presales for Star Wars will increase like they have in the overall market. I don’t think TRoS can beat TFA’s presales. It’ll probably end up in between TLJ and TFA. My guess is 90M total. Using the same OW to total presale ratio as TFA, we get about a 50M OW for TRoS. 

 

50/78 = .641

.641 x 357M = 228.8M

 

A perfectly reasonable OW imo. 

Holiday season makes a much bigger difference than that. I think IW presales for OW was something like 93% of its total PS and I assume Endgame's ratio wouldn't be that much lower. Plus Endgame's 120-140 was only from the Monday of the week it opened, it definitely went higher to probably the 160-170 million range (estimated from DW data @Thanos Legion). As did TFA I believe since that 100 million figure is from its Wednesday morning, but it makes a difference in the ratio. The big thing with TFA was that Christmas Day took up such a large portion of presales that it was higher than OW Sunday. That's why that ratio of OW PS/total PS was so low.

Edited July 12, 2019 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

Endgame should be like 80%+ for OW. There must have been good PS for discount tuesday and small amounts for rest of the week but OW PS must have dominated overall PS. SW7 was a december release and so christmas day was supposedly 2nd biggest PS day after OD.

[Inceptionzq]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I believe this was from several days before, and the final total presales were more in the 150-170M range. @Menor, @Charlie Jatinder, either of you remember clearly?

You’re right, the article I looked at was from April 22nd.

 

Well, disregard everything I said. I tried lol

[Inceptionzq]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Holiday season makes a much bigger difference than that. I think IW presales for OW was something like 93% of its total PS and I assume Endgame's ratio wouldn't be that much lower. Plus Endgame's 120-140 was only from the Monday of the week it opened, it definitely went higher to probably the 160-170 million range (estimated from DW data @Thanos Legion). As did TFA I believe since that 100 million figure is from its Wednesday morning, but it makes a difference in the ratio. The big thing with TFA was that Christmas Day took up such a large portion of presales that it was higher than OW Sunday. That's why that ratio of OW PS/total PS was so low.

Didn’t realize it was so high for Christmas before release. Makes sense though

[Legion Again]

I think TFA, TLJ, and AEG will all be fairly workable comps for TROS. Hopefully it’s well above any other movie.

[XXR vs XXR]

Going back through this thread to when Endgame tickets first went on sale domestically and the presales thread in China when they went on sale there is a lot of fun. Crazy times. 

 

TROS will come the closest to replicating it (domestically at least) but I imagine it will do about half of EG’s total PS.

 

I have a hard time seeing anything or conceiving anything that could match EG’s presales for a the next 5 years, at least. 

Edited July 12, 2019 by VenomXXR