The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

I actually do think SW and Marvel should generally be reasonable comps against one another (assuming they're from the same year or two to account for higher PS loading every year), just not Endgame because it's total PS was so ridiculously high (although if TROS presales are higher than I expect, it could be a factor).

 

A lot of times IW's supposedly lower PS is cited when saying SW is so much more PS heavy than Marvel but the 50 million number that gets thrown around is from the Friday before release, and from Pulse IW's last few days weren't that far behind EG (although they both hit the cap a lot). But still, Endgame added like 60-70 million after its Friday so I think it's reasonable to say that IW could have added 40-50 million. This would make its total PS 90-100 million, so it's PS for OW only was probably higher than TFA and TLJ. 

[RamblinRed]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

again the affect will not be significant except of course if the audience dont like, which based from the chinese sites and rating , probably wont happen

My single biggest thought is that I am simply not going to bet against Disney this year for most of their tent poles.

 

[Justin4125]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Endgame should be like 80%+ for OW. There must have been good PS for discount tuesday and small amounts for rest of the week but OW PS must have dominated overall PS. SW7 was a december release and so christmas day was supposedly 2nd biggest PS day after OD.

I hate to be nitpicky, but I have seen this statement a hundred times on this thread regarding SW7's presales. Fandango reported that Christmas day was the 3rd highest presale day after Thursday and Friday. However, this must have been by a very slim margin, because independent samplers noted that 94.5% of those who prebought tickets to SW7 did so for opening weekend 

 

https://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-opening-weekend-box-office-audience-1201667970/

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

I hate to be nitpicky, but I have seen this statement a hundred times on this thread regarding SW7's presales. Fandango reported that Christmas day was the 3rd highest presale day after Thursday and Friday. However, this must have been by a very slim margin, because independent samplers noted that 94.5% of those who prebought tickets to SW7 did so for opening weekend 

 

https://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-opening-weekend-box-office-audience-1201667970/

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/star-wars-the-force-awakens-surpasses-100m-in-advanced-ticket-sales-report.html

 

This is where we all got the 50-60 million for OW figure. Odd discrepancy between the two sources, although imo the independent sampler is probably less trustworthy than people who have access to actual numbers. Plus if Christmas day was bigger in presales than OW Saturday and Sunday there's absolutely no way that the 94.5% number is true. 

[XXR vs XXR]

On 7/10/2019 at 5:12 PM, VenomXXR said:

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 8 Days to Previews

 

Dolby Cinema: 2 show times, 184 tickets sold out of 410 available (44.88%)

IMAX: 2 show times, 99 tickets sold out of 302 available (32.78%)

3D: 10 show times, 40 tickets sold out of 794 available (05.04%)

Digital: 21 show times, 119 tickets sold out of 1268 available (09.38%)

Fan Event: 1 show time, 96 tickets sold out of 125 available (76.80%)

 

Total: 36 show times, 538 tickets sold out of 2898 available (18.56%)

 

 

Comps

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 330pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

 

 

Will do a full update this Sunday, but as of 3pm CST we’re now at 613 tickets sold. 

[john2000]

15 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Will do a full update this Sunday, but as of 3pm CST we’re now at 613 tickets sold. 

good ?

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

good ?

 

Yes. We will see the how the trend looks but I believe it can outsell TS4 by 70% at my theater through my final track next Thursday.

[FlashMaster659]

On 7/10/2019 at 4:04 PM, FlashMaster659 said:

The Lion King - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

9:00 AM - 50/203

12:00 PM - 30/203

3:00 PM - 48/203

6:00 PM - 151/203

9:00 PM - 164/203

12:15 AM - 15/203

 

RealD 3D

 

10:00 AM - 4/167

1:15 PM - 0/167

4:30 PM - 11/167

7:45 PM - 13/167

11:00 PM - 0/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

10:15 AM - 15/78

1:30 PM - 9/78

4:45 PM - 27/78

8:00 PM - 54/78

11:15 PM - 14/78

 

2D

 

8:00 AM - ?/217*

8:30 AM - ?/114*

9:30 AM - 9/167

11:00 AM - 28/217

11:45 AM - 23/114

12:30 PM - 0/167

2:00 PM - 0/217

3:15 PM - 6/114

3:45 PM - 0/167

5:15 PM - 6/217

6:15 PM - 37/114

7:00 PM - 92/167

8:30 PM - 63/217

9:30 PM - 20/114

10:15 PM - 18/167

11:45 PM - 2/217

12:45 AM - 0/114

 

Total

 

909/5264 (17.3%)

 

Toy Story 4 had sold 712 seats 4 days before opening day

 

*Glitched sell-outs once again. Although telling from the pattern that the total-seats-in-the-theater numbers form, it's easy to assume the max capacity of those shows.

 

The Lion King - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

9:00 AM - 49/203

12:00 PM - 36/203

3:00 PM - 55/203

6:00 PM - 157/203

9:00 PM - 168/203

12:00 AM - 26/203

 

RealD 3D

 

10:00 AM - 2/167

1:15 PM - 0/167

4:30 PM - 11/167

7:45 PM - 23/167

11:00 PM - 0/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

10:15 AM - 15/78

1:30 PM - 17/78

4:45 PM - 27/78

8:00 PM - 54/78

11:15 PM - 22/78

 

2D

 

8:00 AM - ?/217*

8:30 AM - ?/114*

9:30 AM - 10/167

11:00 AM - 28/217

11:45 AM - 26/114

12:30 PM - 0/167

2:00 PM - 0/217

3:15 PM - 9/114

3:45 PM - 0/167

5:15 PM - 11/217

6:15 PM - 48/114

7:00 PM - 112/167

8:30 PM - 85/217

9:30 PM - 22/114

10:15 PM - 18/167

11:30 PM - 2/217

12:45 AM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1033(+124)/5150(-114) (20.1%)

 

Toy Story 4 had sold 712 seats 4 days before opening day

 

*Glitched sell-outs once again. Although telling from the pattern that the total-seats-in-the-theater numbers form, it's easy to assume the max capacity of those shows.

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Toy Story 4 had sold 712 seats 4 days before opening day

 

For total clarification, this would be Tuesday?

[Menor the Destroyer]

Doing some conservative estimations. Based on Cinemark sales I'd say Lion King is at about $21 million in presales. Based on @Deep Wang's numbers for CM (CBM but it did have a similar total at the same point) its presales multiplied by 2.5 from now until release, if TLK does the same it's looking at 54 million in total PS. 

[Porthos]

20 hours ago, Menor said:

TLK Thursday:

Showings: 3461 (102% of Avengers: Endgame 5 days before release (hmmmmm....))

Theaters: 230

Seats Sold: 60958/438065 (+18595 since Monday) 

Estimated ATP: 12.73

Estimated Sales: 775728 (+232445 since Monday)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $7 million (+ $2 million since Monday)

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

FWIW it passed the final number of tickets sold for Aladdin (3900) today.  Got a bit further to go to catch TS4 though (6706).

Too late at night for me to think about it at the time, but these two data points do seem to be fairly well in sync with each other. 👍

 

If your estimated nationwide Thr sales is for all theaters out there and not just Cinemark.

Edited July 12, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

Doing some conservative estimations. Based on Cinemark sales I'd say Lion King is at about $21 million in presales. Based on @Deep Wang's numbers for CM (CBM but it did have a similar total at the same point) its presales multiplied by 2.5 from now until release, if TLK does the same it's looking at 54 million in total PS. 

At $54m we would be at more than double TS4 total presales.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Too late at night for me to think about it at the time, but these two data points do seem to be fairly well in sync with each other. 👍

 

If your estimated nationwide Thr sales is for all theaters out there and not just Cinemark.

Yeah it's a nationwide estimate, based on some of @Charlie Jatinder's statements about FFH presales during it's opening week it seems the theaters I track make up 10-12% of market share. Obviously the share may fluctuate but it gives a decent rough idea. @VenomXXR yep and TS4 was similarly presale heavy to I2 and JW:FK  so 200 million is looking pretty good.

 

 

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by Menor

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

At $54m we would be at more than double TS4 total presales.

any idea about the previews

[FlashMaster659]

24 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

For total clarification, this would be Tuesday?

Monday

[XXR vs XXR]

30 minutes ago, john2000 said:

any idea about the previews

 

If I had to make an educated guess right now, I’d say $20-$23 million. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX: 

7 PM – 48/411(+5)

10 PM – 11/411

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 1/48

7:10 PM – 5/48

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

 

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 69/187(+4)

10:30 PM – 5/187

 

Dolby:

6 PM- 147/217(+2)

9 PM – 69/217

11:50 PM – 6/217

 

2D: 

6 PM – 46/158

6 PM – 4/56

6:10 PM – 5/48

6:20 PM – 10/44(+2)

6:40 PM – 9/94(+7)

6:50 PM – 19/92(+4)

7:20 PM – 15/44

7:40 PM – 4/56

7:50 PM – 0/44

8 PM – 7/40

8:10 PM – 2/36

8:20 PM – 5/48

8:30 PM – 10/94(+6)

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 4/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 5/94(+2)

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 3/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 2/158(+1)

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX: 

7 PM – 87/384(+5)

10 PM – 9/384

 

Real D 3D: 

6:30 PM – 11/85

7:30 PM – 0/52

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

 

Dolby: 

6 PM – 108/210(+9)

9 PM – 65/210(+4)

 

2D:

6 PM – 46/159(+4)

6:10 PM – 9/52(+9)

6:15 PM – 2/52

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 21/85

6:50 PM – 4/39

7:10 PM – 11/45(+2)

7:15 PM – 4/85

7:20 PM – 2/45(+2)

7:40 PM – 0/52

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 13/159(+5)

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 15/85(+1)

9:10 PM – 0/52

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:20 PM – 0/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 4/159(+2)

 

Total from 7 theaters: 2057(+155)/18042 (11.4%)

A small increase from yesterday. Many people are still at work though, so if the reviews influence sales, it has barely shown. Tomorrow will have a better picture, but sales are looking pretty mediocre here.

 

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 55/411(+7)

10 PM – 11/411

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 5/48(+4)

7:10 PM – 5/48

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

 

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 72/187(+3)

10:30 PM – 5/187

 

Dolby:

6 PM- 153/217(+6)

9 PM – 79/217(+10)

11:50 PM – 11/217(+5)

 

2D:

6 PM – 48/158(+2)

6 PM – 4/56

6:10 PM – 5/48

6:20 PM – 10/44

6:40 PM – 9/94

6:50 PM – 19/92

7:20 PM – 15/44

7:40 PM – 4/56

7:50 PM – 0/44

8 PM – 7/40

8:10 PM – 2/36

8:20 PM – 8/48(+3)

8:30 PM – 11/94(+1)

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 4/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 5/94

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 3/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 2/158

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 91/384(+4)

10 PM – 11/384(+2)

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 19/85(+8)

7:30 PM – 2/52(+2)

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

 

Dolby:

6 PM – 120/210(+12)

9 PM – 65/210

 

2D:

6 PM – 48/159(+2)

6:10 PM – 9/52

6:15 PM – 2/52

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 21/85

6:50 PM – 7/39(+3)

7:10 PM – 11/45

7:15 PM – 4/85

7:20 PM – 2/45

7:40 PM – 3/52(+3)

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 16/159(+3)

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 15/85

9:10 PM – 0/52

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:20 PM – 11/41(+11)

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 4/159

Total from 7 theaters: 2253(+196)/18042 (12.2%)

I found these two theaters that I’m not tracking, a Century and AMC theater. Their ticket prices are a few bucks cheaper than other Century and AMC theaters I’m tracking. To no surprise, they are selling well. So, I’m gonna add them in because why not? But I’ll do that in a separate post, so it doesn’t look like Denver sales suddenly exploded.

[Inceptionzq]

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

Total from 9 theaters: 2814(+561)/20422(+2380) (13.8%)

Just FYI, the added tickets are only from those two new theaters. It doesn’t include the 196 from earlier.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Yeah it's a nationwide estimate, based on some of @Charlie Jatinder's statements about FFH presales during it's opening week it seems the theaters I track make up 10-12% of market share. Obviously the share may fluctuate but it gives a decent rough idea. @VenomXXR yep and TS4 was similarly presale heavy to I2 and JW:FK  so 200 million is looking pretty good.

 

 

 

Only thing...next week, Cinemark joins Atom while Regal leaves...and Atom will have the amazing ticket deal...so once next Tuesday hits, Cinemark may have a ramp up in sales not matched across all theaters...

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Only thing...next week, Cinemark joins Atom while Regal leaves...and Atom will have the amazing ticket deal...so once next Tuesday hits, Cinemark may have a ramp up in sales not matched across all theaters...

Maybe...we'll have to see how it goes. Depends on how many people use that deal. But that's why we have multiple comps.