The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 7/13/2019 at 8:49 AM, Menor said:

TLK Thursday:

Showings: 3604 (+143 since Thursday night) 

Theaters: 231

Seats Sold: 71512/452741 (+10514 since Thursday night)

Seats Available Per Theater: 1960 (107% of Avengers: Endgame at the same point)

Estimated ATP: 12.68

Estimated Sales: 906516 (+130788)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 8 million (+$1 million)

 

TLK Friday:

Showings: 5774 (+143 since Thursday night)

Theaters: 232

Seats Sold: 72301/810048 (+12371)

Seats Available Per Theater: 3492 (98% of Avengers: Endgame at the same point)

Estimated ATP: 11.32

Estimated Sales: 818455 (+137141)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 7 million (+$1 million)

 

Keep in mind the estimated nationwide sales is conservative, based on FFH OD the true sales could be as high as 9 million and 8 million respectively. Either way, excellent numbers. As long as it doesn't flatline in the final week $20 million previews and $60 million true Friday seem quite in reach.

Thursday:

Showings: 3615 (+11)

Theaters: 231

Seats Sold: 76909 (+5397)/453443 (+702)

Estimated ATP: 12.65

Estimated Total Sales: 972607(+66097)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $9 million (+$1 million due to rounding)

 

Friday: 

Showings: 5796 (+22)

Theaters: 232

Seats Sold: 80686 (+8385)/813772 (+3724)

Estimated ATP: 11.27

Estimated Total Sales: 909144 (+90689)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $8 million (+$1 million)

 

Bit of a slowdown today but show count growth was also much smaller. Next week should see a big growth in showtimes and hopefully a big bump in sales as well.

[YM!]

The Lion King (59 v 60: Dawn of Soulless) (4 before previews, 5 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

7/19/19

 

6:00 - 187/301 - UltraScreen 

8:00 - 21/121 - 3D 

9:00 - 82/301 - UltraScreen 

11:00 - 0/121 - 3D 

12:00 - 2/301 - UltraScreen 

 

Running:

1327% of Coco ($674.25M OW)

314% of Toy Story 4 ($376.77M OW)

286% of Ant Man and The Wasp ($214.71M OW)

201% of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($235.61M OW)

 

Damn! I'd say $200M OW is locked.

Edited July 14, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[FlashMaster659]

23 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 148/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 171/203

9:00 PM - 164/203

12:00 AM - 86/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 35/78

6:30 PM - 17/63

7:00 PM - 21/78

8:45 PM - 22/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 7/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 6/55

7:30 PM - 4/167

8:00 PM - 8/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 40/61

8:30 PM - 43/63

10:45 PM - 36/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 22/44

6:15 PM - 32/55

6:30 PM - 73/217

6:45 PM - 9/44

7:00 PM - 46/79

7:15 PM - 25/44

7:45 PM - 22/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 53/167

8:30 PM (1) - 17/45

8:30 PM (2) - 32/114

8:45 PM - 15/44

9:00 PM - 13/49

9:15 PM - 9/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 2/55

9:45 PM - 7/217

10:00 PM - 9/48

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 4/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 16/167

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1344(+83)/4089 (32.9%)

 

1.6613x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 five days before previews

0.3659x as many seats sold as Avengers: Endgame five days before previews

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 159/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 176/203

9:00 PM - 167/203

12:00 AM - 91/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 35/78

6:30 PM - 15/63

7:00 PM - 24/78

8:45 PM - 22/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 9/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 8/55

7:30 PM - 4/167

8:00 PM - 8/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 38/63

8:00 PM - 40/61

8:30 PM - 43/63

10:45 PM - 35/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 23/44

6:15 PM - 32/55

6:30 PM - 84/217

6:45 PM - 14/44

7:00 PM - 46/79

7:15 PM - 25/44

7:45 PM - 22/44

8:00 PM - 22/45

8:15 PM - 59/167

8:30 PM (1) - 17/45

8:30 PM (2) - 32/114

8:45 PM - 15/44

9:00 PM - 13/49

9:15 PM - 10/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 2/55

9:45 PM - 7/217

10:00 PM - 10/48

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 6/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 16/167

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1402(+58)/4089 (34.3%)

[FlashMaster659]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The Lion King (59 v 60: Dawn of Soulless) (4 before previews, 5 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

7/19/19

 

6:00 - 187/301 - UltraScreen 

8:00 - 21/121 - 3D 

9:00 - 82/301 - UltraScreen 

11:00 - 0/121 - 3D 

12:00 - 2/301 - UltraScreen 

 

Running:

1327% of Coco ($674.25M OW)

314% of Toy Story 4 ($376.77M OW)

286% of Ant Man and The Wasp ($214.71M OW)

201% of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($235.61M OW)

 

Damn! I'd say $200M OW is locked.

Do you have an Aladdin comp?

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Do you have an Aladdin comp?

Yes, 608% of Aladdin ($556.25M)

[keysersoze123]

no offense but one theater in a random city is not a good barometer to project overall OW. At least Porthos is tracking whole city. Having looked at NYC as a whole its doing way better than TS4 but not in exalted territory that uber blockbusters did at this point. I am not seeing lots of sellouts. Its doing great in Dolby/Imax at this point.

 

I hope we get an update from @Deep Wang. Would love to see an comparison with Beast.

[cdsacken]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

no offense but one theater in a random city is not a good barometer to project overall OW. At least Porthos is tracking whole city. Having looked at NYC as a whole its doing way better than TS4 but not in exalted territory that uber blockbusters did at this point. I am not seeing lots of sellouts. Its doing great in Dolby/Imax at this point.

 

I hope we get an update from @Deep Wang. Would love to see an comparison with Beast.

Way better than TS4 which did 121m which would indicate 200+

[YM!]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

no offense but one theater in a random city is not a good barometer to project overall OW. At least Porthos is tracking whole city. Having looked at NYC as a whole its doing way better than TS4 but not in exalted territory that uber blockbusters did at this point. I am not seeing lots of sellouts. Its doing great in Dolby/Imax at this point.

 

I hope we get an update from @Deep Wang. Would love to see an comparison with Beast.

Fair enough. I understand it's not the best comparison as TS4 was looking huge from presales there, so I understand the criticism. Though it think TLK will play more family friendly than some of the uber blockbusters.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Fair enough. I understand it's not the best comparison as TS4 was looking huge from presales there, so I understand the criticism. Though it think TLK will play more family friendly than some of the uber blockbusters.

your numbers are great and I appreciate you putting amazing effort in doing this. But my only concern is calling numbers locked based on one theater. That is too much of a stretch. You could see it massively over performing in one theater.

 

I would say I would be shocked by sub 150m OW at this point but anything more would need confirmation from wider markets or see lots of sellouts. I am finding it hard to believe a movie opening to 200m+ without lots of sellouts.

[TalismanRing]

35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

no offense but one theater in a random city is not a good barometer to project overall OW. At least Porthos is tracking whole city. Having looked at NYC as a whole its doing way better than TS4 but not in exalted territory that uber blockbusters did at this point. I am not seeing lots of sellouts. Its doing great in Dolby/Imax at this point.

 

I hope we get an update from @Deep Wang. Would love to see an comparison with Beast.

 

TS4 and Aladdin are the comps though - not other uber blockbusters.  It's going to be far more walk up/ family heavy  than any CBM or SW movie.

 

75% on avg higher than TS4 is $21m in previews or $211m o/w if it has the same ratio.
 

TS4 was pretty much neck and neck with X-Men6 the Wed before opening - it's Thur preview number was  $12m v $5m

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

your numbers are great and I appreciate you putting amazing effort in doing this. But my only concern is calling numbers locked based on one theater. That is too much of a stretch. You could see it massively over performing in one theater.

 

I would say I would be shocked by sub 150m OW at this point but anything more would need confirmation from wider markets or see lots of sellouts. I am finding it hard to believe a movie opening to 200m+ without lots of sellouts.

True, calling it locked is a bit premature but I do see $175M+ OW is very likely.

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

TS4 and Aladdin are the comps though - not other uber blockbusters.  It's going to be far more walk up/ family heavy  than any CBM or SW movie.

 

75% on avg higher than TS4 is $21m in previews or $211m o/w if it has the same ratio.
 

TS4 was pretty much neck and neck with X-Men6 the Wed before opening - it's Thur preview number was  $12m v $5m

My thing is once you are blockbuster territory the differences blur. Beast PS was similar to Civil War(Wang chain numbers) despite different genres and OW ended up around the same.

[XXR vs XXR]

On 7/10/2019 at 5:12 PM, VenomXXR said:

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 8 Days to Previews

 

Dolby Cinema: 2 show times, 184 tickets sold out of 410 available (44.88%)

IMAX: 2 show times, 99 tickets sold out of 302 available (32.78%)

3D: 10 show times, 40 tickets sold out of 794 available (05.04%)

Digital: 21 show times, 119 tickets sold out of 1268 available (09.38%)

Fan Event: 1 show time, 96 tickets sold out of 125 available (76.80%)

 

Total: 36 show times, 538 tickets sold out of 2898 available (18.56%)

 

 

Comps

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 330pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

 

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 4 Days to Previews

 

Dolby Cinema: 2 show times, 235 tickets sold out of 410 available (57.32%)

IMAX: 2 show times, 128 tickets sold out of 302 available (42.38%)

3D: 10 show times, 56 tickets sold out of 794 available (07.05%)

Digital: 21 show times, 173 tickets sold out of 1268 available (13.64%)

Fan Event: 1 show time, 98 tickets sold out of 125 available (78.40%)

 

Total: 36 show times, 690 tickets sold out of 2898 available (23.81%)

 

 

Comps

Captain Marvel - 1140 tickets sold by 5:30pm on Wednesday before previews

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 3:30pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

690 tickets sold

 

On 7/13/2019 at 3:19 PM, VenomXXR said:

TLK

3pm CST - 634 tickets sold  

 

+56 tickets in the last 24 hours. Largest day since the 1st day of presales. The ramp up has definitely started. 

[Tinalera]

Its fascinating to see the rt scores and reactions vs the view of numbers 150 to 200 opening weekend. Two different views and stories being told. 

 

Of course many movies had dobe well will tepid rt scores (and vise versa). I dont have a dog in the fight its just interesting to observe ( fwiw the 3 toronto theatres im watching slow but steady business)

 

(Btw hope new photo is less creepy lol)

Edited July 14, 2019 by Tinalera

[jedijake]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Its fascinating to see the rt scores and reactions vs the view of numbers 150 to 200 opening weekend. Two different views and stories being told. 

 

Of course many movies had dobe well will tepid rt scores (and vise versa). I dont have a dog in the fight its just interesting to observe ( fwiw the 3 toronto theatres im watching slow but steady business)

 

(Btw hope new photo is less creepy lol)

Not sure what that means. The RT scores and reactions go hand in hand with the $150-$200 million opening weekend predictions. Most thought it would be well above $200 million. If the OW is, say, $150-$180 million you BET the blame will be on the reviews and the issues that accompany them. $150-$180 million OW would SUCK for this one. Plainly put.

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/13/2019 at 3:50 PM, Inceptionzq said:

 

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX: 

7 PM – 59/411(+4)

10 PM – 11/411

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 5/48

7:10 PM – 5/48

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 78/187(+6)

10:30 PM – 7/187(+2)

Dolby:

6 PM- 156/217(+3)

9 PM – 83/217(+4)

11:50 PM – 12/217(+1)

2D: 

6 PM – 48/158

6 PM – 4/56

6:10 PM – 6/48(+1)

6:20 PM – 10/44

6:40 PM – 9/94

6:50 PM – 19/92

7:20 PM – 15/44

7:40 PM – 4/56

7:50 PM – 0/44

8 PM – 11/40(+4)

8:10 PM – 2/36

8:20 PM – 8/48

8:30 PM – 11/94

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 4/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 5/94

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 3/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 2/158

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX: 

7 PM – 93/384(+2)

10 PM – 11/384

Real D 3D: 

6:30 PM – 19/85

7:30 PM – 4/52(+2)

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

Dolby: 

6 PM – 126/210(+6)

9 PM – 70/210(+5)

2D:

6 PM – 52/159(+4)

6:10 PM – 16/52(+7)

6:15 PM – 2/52

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 21/85

6:50 PM – 7/39

7:10 PM – 11/45

7:15 PM – 4/85

7:20 PM – 2/45

7:40 PM – 3/52(+3)

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 19/159(+3)

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 15/85

9:10 PM – 8/52(+8)

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:20 PM – 11/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 10/159(+6)

 

Total from 9 theaters(154 showings): 3065(+251)/20422 (15%)

From the original 7 theaters, there were 200 tickets sold. There has been this pattern of a relatively large increase in tickets sold, then the next day it is relatively small. This one is an extremely small jump, so maybe tomorrow there'll be an extremely large jump 😅

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 71/411(+12)

10 PM – 11/411

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 5/48

7:10 PM – 10/48(+5)

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 81/187(+3)

10:30 PM – 7/187

Dolby:

6 PM- 157/217(+1)

9 PM – 90/217(+7)

11:50 PM – 18/217(+6)

2D:

6 PM – 49/158(+1)

6 PM – 7/56(+3)

6:10 PM – 6/48

6:20 PM – 12/44(+2)

6:40 PM – 13/94(+4)

6:50 PM – 19/92

7:20 PM – 15/44

7:40 PM – 4/56

7:50 PM – 2/44(+2)

8 PM – 11/40

8:10 PM – 4/36(+2)

8:20 PM – 8/48

8:30 PM – 11/94

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 4/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 5/94

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 3/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 5/158(+3)

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 108/384(+15)

10 PM – 13/384(+2)

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 19/85

7:30 PM – 8/52(+4)

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

Dolby:

6 PM – 135/210(+9)

9 PM – 91/210(+21)

2D:

6 PM – 55/159(+3)

6:10 PM – 18/52(+2)

6:15 PM – 8/52(+6)

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 21/85

6:50 PM – 12/39(+5)

7:10 PM – 11/45

7:15 PM – 4/85

7:20 PM – 4/45(+2)

7:40 PM – 3/52

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 24/159(+5)

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 15/85

9:10 PM – 8/52

9:15 PM – 4/52(+2)

9:20 PM – 11/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 11/159(+1)

 

Total from 9 theaters(154 showings): 3332(+267)/20422 (16.3%)

Well, at least the tickets sold are increasing. Even if only by a small amount. Though the AMC theaters did a lot more heavy lifting today, and some of the weaker theaters did pretty bad even by their standards.

[john2000]

Just now, Inceptionzq said:

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

 

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

 

 

IMAX:

 

7 PM – 71/411(+12)

 

10 PM – 11/411

 

Real D 3D:

 

6:30 PM – 5/48

 

7:10 PM – 10/48(+5)

 

9:25 PM – 0/48

 

10:05 PM – 0/48

 

Prime 3D:

 

7:30 PM – 81/187(+3)

 

10:30 PM – 7/187

 

Dolby:

 

6 PM- 157/217(+1)

 

9 PM – 90/217(+7)

 

11:50 PM – 18/217(+6)

 

2D:

 

6 PM – 49/158(+1)

 

6 PM – 7/56(+3)

 

6:10 PM – 6/48

 

6:20 PM – 12/44(+2)

 

6:40 PM – 13/94(+4)

 

6:50 PM – 19/92

 

7:20 PM – 15/44

 

7:40 PM – 4/56

 

7:50 PM – 2/44(+2)

 

8 PM – 11/40

 

8:10 PM – 4/36(+2)

 

8:20 PM – 8/48

 

8:30 PM – 11/94

 

8:40 PM – 0/92

 

8:50 PM – 0/44

 

9:05 PM – 4/158

 

9:10 PM – 0/56

 

9:15 PM – 0/48

 

9:20 PM – 0/44

 

9:30 PM – 5/94

 

9:45 PM – 0/92

 

10:15 PM – 0/44

 

10:40 PM – 3/56

 

10:50 PM – 0/44

 

11 PM – 0/40

 

11:10 PM – 0/36

 

11:20 PM – 0/48

 

11:30 PM – 0/94

 

11:40 PM – 0/92

 

11:50 PM – 0/44

 

11:55 PM – 0/56

 

12:00 AM – 5/158(+3)

 

 

 

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

 

 

IMAX:

 

7 PM – 108/384(+15)

 

10 PM – 13/384(+2)

 

Real D 3D:

 

6:30 PM – 19/85

 

7:30 PM – 8/52(+4)

 

9:30 PM – 0/85

 

10:30 PM – 0/52

 

Dolby:

 

6 PM – 135/210(+9)

 

9 PM – 91/210(+21)

 

2D:

 

6 PM – 55/159(+3)

 

6:10 PM – 18/52(+2)

 

6:15 PM – 8/52(+6)

 

6:20 PM – 0/41

 

6:40 PM – 21/85

 

6:50 PM – 12/39(+5)

 

7:10 PM – 11/45

 

7:15 PM – 4/85

 

7:20 PM – 4/45(+2)

 

7:40 PM – 3/52

 

7:50 PM – 0/39

 

8 PM – 24/159(+5)

 

8:10 PM – 0/45

 

8:20 PM – 0/41

 

8:30 PM – 15/85

 

9:10 PM – 8/52

 

9:15 PM – 4/52(+2)

 

9:20 PM – 11/41

 

9:30 PM – 0/159

 

9:40 PM – 0/85

 

9:50 PM – 0/39

 

10:10 PM – 0/45

 

10:15 PM – 0/85

 

10:20 PM – 0/45

 

10:40 PM – 0/52

 

10:50 PM – 0/39

 

11 PM – 11/159(+1)

 

 

Total from 9 theaters(154 showings): 3332(+267)/20422 (16.3%)

 

Well, at least the tickets sold are increasing. Even if only by a small amount. Though the AMC theaters did a lot more heavy lifting today, and some of the weaker theaters did pretty bad even by their standards.

 

nice, it seems that the ramp up started

[Porthos]

49 minutes ago, jedijake said:

$150-$180 million OW would SUCK for this one. Plainly put.

Gonna disagree with you about 180 OW sucking.  Especially if its 20m in previews with a 9x internal multi.

 

Slightly, and I do mean slightly*, disappointing if it lands at 170?  Sure, I could agree with that.  Disappointing on 150, I'd also agree if only for strong pre-sales.  

 

But sucking?  Nah. Bridge too far for me.

 

*  EDIT:: I want to make clear that 170 OW is only very very VERY slightly disappointing compared to some pre-sale models.  I personally would get over that very very VERY slight disappointment very quickly.  Especially as that still puts it on pace to clear 500m DOM with ease.

 

Remember, this isn't a CBM or SW or other film that has shorter legs.  This is still a family film in the summer and legs are king there, even in this era of shorter legs overall.

Edited July 14, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Like 170 OW at 3.1x mutli is 525m DOM.

 

Even the so-called disappointing 150m DOM at a 3.3x is 495m DOM.

 

Those numbers are many things, but "sucking" is not one of them.