The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Gonna disagree with you about 180 OW sucking.  Especially if its 20m in previews with a 9x internal multi.

 

Slightly, and I do mean slightly, disappointing if it lands at 170?  Sure, I could agree with that.  Disappointing on 150, I'd also agree if only for strong pre-sales.  

 

But sucking?  Nah. Bridge too far for me.

agreed, plus the range is big right now it could lant anywhere from 180-220 , we dont even know the previews right now other than a range which will change as this week is the big one, people need to calm down the movie will be a success no matter what,

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

nice, it seems that the ramp up started

Definitely for the AMC theaters. Yesterday they did 106/251. Today 187/267. Hopefully the other theaters pick up the pace like that tomorrow, and things will be looking good.

[XXR vs XXR]

Using @Porthos data for Captain Marvel and comparing it to his TLK data for last 4 days (T-8 through T-5)

 

CM Total Tickets Sold Through T-5: 5162

TLK Total Tickets Sold Through T-5: 4635

 

CM by Day:

T-8: 133

T-7: 190

T-6: 241

T-5: 237

T-4: 402

T-3: 551

T-2: 802

T-1: 1063

T-0 Mid-Day: 1053

 

TLK by Day:

T-8: 330

T-7: 289

T-6: 382

T-5: 259

T-4: n/a

T-3: n/a

T-2: n/a

T-1: n/a

T-0 Mid-Day: n/a

 

Over the final 5 updates (excluded Porthos final update because it was after the time TLK previews start), Captain Marvel sold 3871 tickets. Using each individual day as a ratio and the accumulation as a ratio, here would be the domestic previews total....

T-8 Ratio = 9605 sold = $32.6 million 

T-7 Ratio = 5888 sold = $24.1 million 

T-6 Ratio = 6136 sold = $24.7 million

T-5 Ratio = 4230 sold = $20.7 million 

T-8 through T-5 Ratio: 6089 sold = $24.6 million 

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Using @Porthos data for Captain Marvel and comparing it to his TLK data for last 4 days (T-8 through T-5)

 

CM Total Tickets Sold Through T-5: 5162

TLK Total Tickets Sold Through T-5: 4635

 

CM by Day:

T-8: 133

T-7: 190

T-6: 241

T-5: 237

T-4: 402

T-3: 551

T-2: 802

T-1: 1063

T-0 Mid-Day: 1053

 

TLK by Day:

T-8: 330

T-7: 289

T-6: 382

T-5: 259

T-4: n/a

T-3: n/a

T-2: n/a

T-1: n/a

T-0 Mid-Day: n/a

 

Over the final 5 updates (excluded Porthos final update because it was after the time TLK previews start), Captain Marvel sold 3871 tickets. Using each individual day as a ratio and the accumulation as a ratio, here would be the domestic previews total....

T-8 Ratio = 9605 sold = $32.6 million 

T-7 Ratio = 5888 sold = $24.1 million 

T-6 Ratio = 6136 sold = $24.7 million

T-5 Ratio = 4230 sold = $20.7 million 

T-8 through T-5 Ratio: 6089 sold = $24.6 million 

I'd include the final number anyway as 1 hour in difference is gonna be trivial IMO.

 

I am thinking about roping in some CBMs as supplementary comps as this is the point where they should start to converge a bit (as I think you're showing here).  

 

My main worry now about roping in CBMs as comps isn't so much the difference in pre-sale pattern anymore but the avg ticket price being depressed on TLK due to all the kids tickets being purchased.  I'm starting to think that's why both Aladdin and TS4 came in over JW:FK's projection.  

 

I've also added a PLF/3D seat level tracker on my home sheet.  Mostly for idle curiosity, but also to see if PLF penetration matters all that much. Sadly, no way for me to track children ticket purchases.

Edited July 14, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'd include the final number anyway as 1 hour in difference is gonna be trivial IMO.

 

I am thinking about roping in some CBMs as supplementary comps as this is the point where they should start to converge a bit (as I think you're showing here).  

 

My main worry now about roping in CBMs as comps isn't so much the difference in pre-sale pattern anymore but the avg ticket price being depressed on TLK due to all the kids tickets being purchased.  I'm starting to think that's why both Aladdin and TS4 came in over JW:FK's projection.  

 

I've also added a PLF/3D seat level tracker on my home sheet.  Mostly for idle curiosity, but also to see if PLF penetration matters all that much. Sadly, no way for me to track children ticket purchases.

 

Yea TS4 and Aladdin are still the main tracking targets (TS4 more so due to it also being a summer film).

Edited July 14, 2019 by VenomXXR

[ThomasNicole]

After recent movies that people called disappointment because of high expectations, I think it’s time to accept the low end of ranges.

 

Toy Story end up being the highest debut of the franchise and will match the numbers of TS3 or come close enough, still people freak out because it was supposed to be bigger.

 

Some people also being disappointed with $ 185M for FFH because presales indicate it could do $ 200M or more.

 

The range for TLK is something like $ 180-220M, but if the number is $ 180-190M there’s nothing wrong with that, I hope people won’t complain again. 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Some people also being disappointed with $ 185M for FFH because presales indicate it could do $ 200M or more.

 

I think that was more wishful thinking on some peoples parts. My data always indicated a high $30's / low $40's OD and sub-$200m 6 day. I think people let the EG "bump" cloud their judgement of what was always being indicated.

If TLK came in at $180m I wouldn't be surprised, but the current data is indicating a $20m Thursday and $60m Friday, which would put Sat/Sun on course for $120m or more (WOM dependent as always). Either way, will see how the final 4 days look and judge accordingly. 

Edited July 15, 2019 by VenomXXR

[ThomasNicole]

Double post

Edited July 15, 2019 by ThomasNicole

[UserHN]

58 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I think that was more wishful thinking on some peoples parts. My data always indicated a high $30's / low $40's OD and sub-$200m 6 day. I think people let the EG "bump" cloud their judgement of what was always being indicated.

If TLK came in at $180m I wouldn't be surprised, but the current data is indicating a $20m Thursday and $60m Friday, which would put Sat/Sun on course for $120m or more (WOM dependent as always). Either way, will see how the final 4 days look and judge accordingly. 

Are you predicting $200M+ for TLK?

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Are you predicting $200M+ for TLK?

 

I try not to predict OW too much, I’m better at OD. OW depends a lot on WOM and audience reaction. 

 

I am predicting $77-$83m full Friday though. Let’s see how things look on Friday evening before I take a shot at the weekend. 

[Eric Duncan]

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	105	3,588	19,193	18.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 317

 

So to put things into perspective, this was the last 5 days: 267, 257, 305, 241, 317. So we went from up, down, way up, way down, and way up again. Oh Jon Favreau, why must you play with my emotions?

 

Nah but for real though, a lot of this jump does have to do with it now being the Sunday before release. People bought their tickets for movies this weekend already, now people are gearing up for the new biggie. But of course, it's only one data point, and we've still got four more days to go before the movie comes out. But right now, I think it's on the right foot at the moment.

 

But let me just say that this kind of "up down" nonsense this past week was acceptable this week, but if tomorrow even just does 316...yeah, we might be in for a rude awakening.

[charlie Jatinder]

57 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I try not to predict OW too much, I’m better at OD. OW depends a lot on WOM and audience reaction. 

 

I am predicting $77-$83m full Friday though. Let’s see how things look on Friday evening before I take a shot at the weekend. 

I don't see how it miss 200mn from that.

 

 

Edit:

I see how it miss 77 63 50 : 190

😛

Edited July 15, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I think that was more wishful thinking on some peoples parts. My data always indicated a high $30's / low $40's OD and sub-$200m 6 day. I think people let the EG "bump" cloud their judgement of what was always being indicated.

If TLK came in at $180m I wouldn't be surprised, but the current data is indicating a $20m Thursday and $60m Friday, which would put Sat/Sun on course for $120m or more (WOM dependent as always). Either way, will see how the final 4 days look and judge accordingly. 

Well OD presales overall were very deceptive for FFH, it's OD was massively presale heavy even accounting for it being a weekday. But as TLK has a normal OW pattern it'll be a lot easier to predict. 

[keysersoze123]

I looked at AMC Empire 25 OD to see how PS is relative to previews. It seems to have way fewer shows than Previews for 2d !!!!! Random shows are showing sold out while normal peak time shows except dolby are not that full. I think these are shows for which tickets are not open yet.

 

Edit: definitely false sellouts as even shows 10 days into run are shown as sold out. I doubt any show is sold out at this point.

 

Spoiler

Day 1

 

Dolby: 36/225 (930AM), 58/225 (1230PM), 122/225 (330PM), 204/225 (630PM), 177/225 (930PM), 1230AM(showed sold out. I am finding it hard to believe !!!)
Imax - 11/303 (1030AM), 26/303 (130PM), 49/303 (1030PM)
Imax 3D - 100/303 (430PM), 168/225 (730PM)
3D - 12, 3, 6,9 PM all showing sold out!!!, 2/309 (A14 2PM), 24/309 (A14 5PM)

2D: 9AM, 11PM, 1130PM, 12AM are showing sold out !!!
     6/377 (10AM A13), 7/309(A14 11AM), 17/262 (A12 1130AM), 4/377 (A13 1PM), 24/262 (A12 230PM), 25/377 (A13 4PM), 36/262 (A12 530PM), 68/377 (A13 7PM), 44/309 (A14 8PM), 63/262 (A12 830PM), 18/377 (A13 10PM)

 

Overall numbers are not that impressive except peak time Dolby and Imax. May be Lion King wont be that heavy from NYC perspective.

Edited July 15, 2019 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Well OD presales overall were very deceptive for FFH, it's OD was massively presale heavy even accounting for it being a weekday. But as TLK has a normal OW pattern it'll be a lot easier to predict. 

I wish we had pulse to get some perspective. its extremely hard otherwise. How is cinemark looking comparing between previews, OD and Sat. is it evenly spread out?

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	227	18239	23364	5125	21.94%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:              1

Total Showings Added Today:           2

Total Seats Added Today:                70

Total Seats Sold Today:                 490

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.1099x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 4 days before release.

3.5223x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 4 days before release.

3.9453x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 4 days before release.

1.8415x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 4 days before release.

 

T-4:

Pika       110 seats sold [0 sellouts/62 shows |   6217/7464 seats    | 1247 seats sold |  16.71% sold]

Aladdin 128 seats sold [0 sellouts/81 shows |   9934/11389 seats  | 1455 seats sold |  12.78% sold]

KotM     111 seats sold [0 sellouts/98 shows | 12441/13740 seats  | 1299 seats sold |   9.45% sold]

TS4       287 seats sold [0 sellouts/92 shows |   9682/12465 seats  | 2783 seats sold | 22.33% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.9292x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 4 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-4:

JW2         220 seats sold [0 sellouts/111 shows |   8833/11263 seats | 2430 seats sold | 21.58% sold]

TLK (JW)  433 seats sold [0 sellouts/227 shows | 15390/20078 seats | 4688 seats sold | 23.35% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

58 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I looked at AMC Empire 25 OD to see how PS is relative to previews. It seems to have way fewer shows than Previews for 2d !!!!! Random shows are showing sold out while normal peak time shows except dolby are not that full. I think these are shows for which tickets are not open yet.

 

Edit: definitely false sellouts as even shows 10 days into run are shown as sold out. I doubt any show is sold out at this point.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Day 1

 

Dolby: 36/225 (930AM), 58/225 (1230PM), 122/225 (330PM), 204/225 (630PM), 177/225 (930PM), 1230AM(showed sold out. I am finding it hard to believe !!!)
Imax - 11/303 (1030AM), 26/303 (130PM), 49/303 (1030PM)
Imax 3D - 100/303 (430PM), 168/225 (730PM)
3D - 12, 3, 6,9 PM all showing sold out!!!, 2/309 (A14 2PM), 24/309 (A14 5PM)

2D: 9AM, 11PM, 1130PM, 12AM are showing sold out !!!
     6/377 (10AM A13), 7/309(A14 11AM), 17/262 (A12 1130AM), 4/377 (A13 1PM), 24/262 (A12 230PM), 25/377 (A13 4PM), 36/262 (A12 530PM), 68/377 (A13 7PM), 44/309 (A14 8PM), 63/262 (A12 830PM), 18/377 (A13 10PM)

 

Overall numbers are not that impressive except peak time Dolby and Imax. May be Lion King wont be that heavy from NYC perspective.

@captainwondyful regularly tracks Empire 25 as well, so she could probably lend her thoughts here, both about random shows being sold out as well as previews for 2D.

[Cap]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@captainwondyful regularly tracks Empire 25 as well, so she could probably lend her thoughts here, both about random shows being sold out as well as previews for 2D.

 I don’t track on the weekends so I will not have a better picture of this until tomorrow evening. I plan to buy the plane Wi-Fi and do some seat counting. 

 

There’s a couple things going on in New York (Empire 25 and Lincoln Square) right now that I can speak of off the top of my head.

 

1.  There are an obscene amount of showings. The overall tickets sold are more than the other films I have tracked, with the exception of endgame, this year. However with 40 showings at Empire alone it looks like it’s not selling well. 

 

2.  The film had a giant surge its first two days, and then really flattened out. For example it has sold about 1500 tickets at Lincoln Square. It’s sold 1000 the first day, and has only sold 500 since. I think it goes without saying that the final week is really going to determine if this lands at 180 million or this lands at 220 million. I personally don’t see it going above or below that. 

 

I have some more thoughts but between packing for a plane ride and not having numbers in front of me I will keep them for tomorrow nights update

 

ETA: the AmC website has been wrong all week. They keep changing if things are sold out or not. Empire 25 went from 1600 to 900 seats this week, and the went back up to like 1100. 

Edited July 15, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Molek]

So all the comps are still $22.0-24.5m previews.

 

Jurassic World ($18.5m) = $248-$277 OW

Incredibles 2 ($18.5m) = $217-$242 OW

Beauty and the Beast ($16.3m) = $236-$263 OW

Fallen Kingdom ($15.3m) = $213-$238 OW

 

These are the largest previews grossing family movies, with 3/4 of them releasing in summer. Lion King is way ahead of all of them. So what I'm wondering is why are people here predicting such a pessimistic IM of 9.0 or under here? Just because summer has been disappointing so far o.O?

[UserHN]

12 minutes ago, Molek said:

So all the comps are still $22.0-24.5m previews.

 

Jurassic World ($18.5m) = $248-$277 OW

Incredibles 2 ($18.5m) = $217-$242 OW

Beauty and the Beast ($16.3m) = $236-$263 OW

Fallen Kingdom ($15.3m) = $213-$238 OW

 

These are the largest previews grossing family movies, with 3/4 of them releasing in summer. Lion King is way ahead of all of them. So what I'm wondering is why are people here predicting such a pessimistic IM of 9.0 or under here? Just because summer has been disappointing so far o.O?

I think mainly this. This summer is so unpredictable. Maybe many just don't want a repeat of what happened with the TS4 weekend.