The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	227	18239	23364	5125	21.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                 490

 

In case folks care:

 

CM sold  402 tickets four days out.

EG sold   457 tickets four days out.

Solo sold 151 tickets four days out (versus an adj 433 tickets sold).

DP2 sold 264 tickets four days out (versus an adj 433 tickets sold).

IW sold    305 tickets four days out (versus an adj 433 tickets sold).

 

And the other comps, again for what they're worth:

0.9211x Captain Marvel   [19.07m] 

0.2516x Endgame            [15.09m] 

1.1512x Solo (adj)            [16.24m] 

1.1735x Deadpool 2 (adj) [21.83m] 

0.4906x Infinity War (adj) [19.13m] 

 

Last check three days ago:

 

On 7/11/2019 at 11:03 PM, Porthos said:

For other comparisons:

 

CM sold  190 tickets seven days out.

EG sold   240 tickets seven days out.

DP2 sold 119 tickets seven days out (versus an adj 280 tickets sold)

IW sold    359 tickets seven days out (versus an adj 280 tickets sold)

 

And comps if folks want them, for what they're worth:

 

0.8527x Captain Marvel    (17.65m)

0.2051x Endgame             (12.31m)

1.0659x Solo (adj)             (15.03m)

1.1980x Deadpool 2 (adj)  (22.28m) 

0.4568x Infinity War (adj)  (17.81m) 

 

DP2 actually went down a skosh as it wasn't nearly as pre-sale heavy as the other CBMs.  Others went up by a varying amount.

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, Molek said:

So all the comps are still $22.0-24.5m previews.

 

Jurassic World ($18.5m) = $248-$277 OW

Incredibles 2 ($18.5m) = $217-$242 OW

Beauty and the Beast ($16.3m) = $236-$263 OW

Fallen Kingdom ($15.3m) = $213-$238 OW

 

These are the largest previews grossing family movies, with 3/4 of them releasing in summer. Lion King is way ahead of all of them. So what I'm wondering is why are people here predicting such a pessimistic IM of 9.0 or under here? Just because summer has been disappointing so far o.O?

No, because this isn't your normal family movie but a big blockbuster so IM won't be anything Aladdin like (12x on a normal Wend with M-Day it was a 13x) but rather something closer to other blockbuster and its opening in summer so its IM most likely will be worse than B&tB (10.72x).

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

No, because this isn't your normal family movie but a big blockbuster so IM won't be anything Aladdin like (12x on a normal Wend with M-Day it was a 13x) but rather something closer to other blockbuster and its opening in summer so its IM most likely will be worse than B&tB (10.72x).

 i disagree with you but fingers crossed also beauty and the beast had around 12 multi and that made 176 weekend , so anyway we will know soon enough

Edited July 15, 2019 by john2000

[Molek]

6 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

No, because this isn't your normal family movie but a big blockbuster so IM won't be anything Aladdin like (12x on a normal Wend with M-Day it was a 13x) but rather something closer to other blockbuster and its opening in summer so its IM most likely will be worse than B&tB (10.72x).

Jurassic World managed over 11 in summer with huge $18.5m previews but that was 2015. I think it will be around 9.5-9.9 personally like Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom, which suggest $215-$240 opening

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

 i disagree with you but fingers crossed also beauty and the beast had around 12 multi and that made 176 weekend , so anyway we will know soon enough

B&tB Previews: 16.3m, OWend: 174.751M -> IM = 174.751/16.3 = 10.72 (as I wrote) in March where previews overall tend to be a bit weaker as their aren't summer holidays and TLK is kinda treated like the live action blockbuster, two things that point towards a worse IM. Which is why expecting something between 8 and 10 is reasonable, so I hope it will end up above a 10x but doubt that.

[Taruseth]

3 minutes ago, Molek said:

Jurassic World managed over 11 in summer with huge $18.5m previews but that was 2015. I think it will be around 9.5-9.9 personally like Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom, which suggest $215-$240 opening

JW is totally different movie, before that opening everything pointed towards a 110m or so up to maybe 140m and that it (barely) broke the OWend record with 208m so I wouldn't use that as comp. Maybe I am fully wrong and it will do something crazy like a 11-12 IM but this appears more like a standard blockbuster (Superhero/SW with good IM) than an family/animation movie and TS4 came in barely above a 10 with a 10.076x

Edited July 15, 2019 by Taruseth

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

B&tB Previews: 16.3m, OWend: 174.751M -> IM = 174.751/16.3 = 10.72 (as I wrote) in March where previews overall tend to be a bit weaker as their aren't summer holidays and TLK is kinda treated like the live action blockbuster, two things that point towards a worse IM. Which is why expecting something between 8 and 10 is reasonable, so I hope it will end up above a 10x but doubt that.

200 ow will depending from the previews first,

[Taruseth]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

In case folks care:

 

CM sold  402 tickets four days out.

EG sold   457 tickets four days out.

Solo sold 151 tickets four days out (versus an adj 433 tickets sold).

DP2 sold 264 tickets four days out (versus an adj 433 tickets sold).

IW sold    305 tickets four days out (versus an adj 433 tickets sold).

 

And the other comps, again for what they're worth:

0.9211x Captain Marvel   [19.07m] 

0.2516x Endgame            [15.09m] 

1.1512x Solo (adj)            [16.24m] 

1.1735x Deadpool 2 (adj) [21.83m] 

0.4906x Infinity War (adj) [19.13m] 

 

Last check three days ago:

 

 

DP2 actually went down a skosh as it wasn't nearly as pre-sale heavy as the other CBMs.  Others went up by a varying amount.

Isn't that overall kinda good like it's above every other movie (I know that Eg and IW had totally different pattern)

 

 

Also you are here debating if it will end as the 5th biggest OWend (behind Endgame, IW, TFA and TLJ) or the 10th biggest (180m between Civil War and I2) which even adjusted for Inflations would be 6th to 16th.

 

While in Germany I have doubt it will get into the top 100 for OWends (need 965k adms. for that or the top 50 in € would need €10m)

[Molek]

24 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Isn't that overall kinda good like it's above every other movie (I know that Eg and IW had totally different pattern)

 

 

Also you are here debating if it will end as the 5th biggest OWend (behind Endgame, IW, TFA and TLJ) or the 10th biggest (180m between Civil War and I2) which even adjusted for Inflations would be 6th to 16th.

 

While in Germany I have doubt it will get into the top 100 for OWends (need 965k adms. for that or the top 50 in € would need €10m)

Will Europe's performance be meh then? I was expecting it to be nearly equally huge domestically and in Europe, Japan, Australia, bit less than 40% DOM split

[Eric Atreides]

For me, the issue over TLK's IM comes down to its preview size. If it really does hit 20M+, that is a large amount of demand already taken care of. Sure, it won't play out like a Marvel, SW, or HP joint, but it's still a lot of money being made and a large chunk of its target audience satisfied. Especially since we're in the peak summer season, there's going to be more kids flocking to see it on Thursday, and while there will still be a big chunk of kids during the weekend, it's not going to be as large as, say, Beauty and the Beast which opened in the spring.

 

And yeah, Incredibles 2 managed to do 9.875x off its preview in the middle of summer with an 18.5M preview haul, but that also had Father's Day to inflate its IM, which Lion King won't have.

 

I dunno, I think 8-10x is the range we're going for, with the lower and higher end all dependent on early audience reception.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

17 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

For me, the issue over TLK's IM comes down to its preview size. If it really does hit 20M+, that is a large amount of demand already taken care of. Sure, it won't play out like a Marvel, SW, or HP joint, but it's still a lot of money being made and a large chunk of its target audience satisfied. Especially since we're in the peak summer season, there's going to be more kids flocking to see it on Thursday, and while there will still be a big chunk of kids during the weekend, it's not going to be as large as, say, Beauty and the Beast which opened in the spring.

 

And yeah, Incredibles 2 managed to do 9.875x off its preview in the middle of summer with an 18.5M preview haul, but that also had Father's Day to inflate its IM, which Lion King won't have.

 

I dunno, I think 8-10x is the range we're going for, with the lower and higher end all dependent on early audience reception.

But as we already saw, a large film can have a great sunday without fathers day (looking at you TS4). I think the sweet spot is 9-9.5x in the end

Edited July 15, 2019 by The Fast and the Furiosa

[Molek]

10 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

For me, the issue over TLK's IM comes down to its preview size. If it really does hit 20M+, that is a large amount of demand already taken care of. Sure, it won't play out like a Marvel, SW, or HP joint, but it's still a lot of money being made and a large chunk of its target audience satisfied. Especially since we're in the peak summer season, there's going to be more kids flocking to see it on Thursday, and while there will still be a big chunk of kids during the weekend, it's not going to be as large as, say, Beauty and the Beast which opened in the spring.

 

And yeah, Incredibles 2 managed to do 9.875x off its preview in the middle of summer with an 18.5M preview haul, but that also had Father's Day to inflate its IM, which Lion King won't have.

 

I dunno, I think 8-10x is the range we're going for, with the lower and higher end all dependent on early audience reception.

What about FK which had meh to poor audience reception? Still got nearly 9.7. I know that had lower $7-9m lower previews than this is targeting, but I'm not sure I understand the argument that 20+ has satisfied a lot of demand, when it could just point to larger upcoming demand with the same ratio. JW had larger previews than FK and a way higher multi.

 

To put it simply, it would be surprising to me that such a family friendly non-sequel movie like TLK would fail to hit 9.0 multi with decent audience reception, and 10.0+ can't be ruled out. I'll stick to 9.5-9.9 but we'll see how it plays out, because we haven't seen a family movie this big before, as its previews are much higher than JW which holds the current crown.

[cdsacken]

I'm going with 21m and IM of 9.5ish for 200m. Could do better or worse.

 

Thing on reviews is the same thing happened to Aladdin (almost exact same thing) and the audience brushed aside the reviews. It remains to be seen how they will feel about this one. 

Edited July 15, 2019 by cdsacken

[lorddemaxus]

19 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Thing on reviews is the same thing happened to Aladdin (almost exact same thing) and the audience brushed aside the reviews. It remains to be scene how they will feel about this one. 

I think it's going to be worse than Aladdin. SK is a decent predictor of WoM in DOM (much better than China at least) and WoM there is not that great.

[cdsacken]

6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think it's going to be worse than Aladdin. SK is a decent predictor of WoM in DOM (much better than China at least) and WoM there is not that great.

Not really it's not.

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think it's going to be worse than Aladdin. SK is a decent predictor of WoM in DOM (much better than China at least) and WoM there is not that great.

 

What WOM? It hasn’t started showing yet so wouldn’t that just be critic response?

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

What WOM? It hasn’t started showing yet so wouldn’t that just be critic response?

Exactly. China is on Pace to almost triple Aladdin in China

 

If I'm not mistaken presales in South Korea are way way higher than Aladdin was

Edited July 15, 2019 by cdsacken

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, Molek said:

Will Europe's performance be meh then? I was expecting it to be nearly equally huge domestically and in Europe, Japan, Australia, bit less than 40% DOM split

Honestly: No idea, in Germany it on top just like Endgame has a 5-day OWend and not a normal 4-day OWend and I didn't count yesterday evening but just gave it a quick look and that didn't look promising.

Will probably only count tomorrow evening and then compare the 4-day Wend with the other 4-days (fully ignoring Wednesday) to get an idea for it's OWend.

It obviously still could open big and be walk up heavy and that is just Germany which doesn't always indicate how a movie performs and on top of that is Germany a declining market and kinda hates those live action movies (they make more in Italy and Spain, two smaller markets).

And that Wednesday seriously fucks up the comp and the fact that after 2 really cold weeks the weather will be nice again, starting on Wednesday (Opening Day) will probably hurt quite a bit too.

Could still go for the 40% Dom split, Germany doesn't say much about the rest of the markets.

In other words, I don't know.

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I wish we had pulse to get some perspective. its extremely hard otherwise. How is cinemark looking comparing between previews, OD and Sat. is it evenly spread out?

Sat I haven't been tracking since it should be more or less predictable from OD. The trend between previews and Friday is pretty healthy though as will be shown in this post.

 

Thurs:

Showings: 3619 (+14)

Theaters: 231

Tickets Sold: 86894 (+9985)

Tickets Available: 453878 (+435)

Estimated ATP: 12.58

Estimated Sales: $1,093,372 (+120765)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $10 million (+$1 million)

 

Fri: 

Showings: 5791 (-5) (not sure what happened here but it probably didn't make a huge difference)

Theaters: 232

Tickets Sold: 95069 (+14383)

Tickets Available: 812968 (-804)

Estimated ATP: 11.19

Estimated Sales: $1,063,406 (+$154,262)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $9.5 million (+$1.5 million)

 

Btw @Charlie Jatinder if Friday presales on that morning were say $23 million then what would you predict for the day?

[lorddemaxus]

6 hours ago, imbruglia said:

reaction from screening is not good, 86% egg on cgv.

 

51 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Not really it's not.

Small sample size but still counts as WoM. Presales are much higher than Aladdin in South Korea but it might not reach the heights Aladdin did in terms of final gross.