The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

So I decided just now to see what TLK needs locally to keep pace with 1.8x TS4 (21.6m):

 

TS4 (actuals):

Mon:            460

Tue:             538

Wed:            816

Thr-Mid:      881   

Thr-Final:  1228

 

TLK (1.8x target):

Mon:           828

Tue:            968

Wed:         1469

Thr-Mid:   1586

Thr-Final:  2210

 

That would give a final comp of 1.8172x TS4 (21.8m) [12186 v 6706].  1.8x TS4 on the nose (21.6m) would be 12071 tickets, so knock off 115 tickets in the above somewhere.

 

Those are some pretty high targets, especially that last one.  Most I've ever seen in the final half day of premiere night is Captain Marvel at 1,501 (EG had already sold a shit-ton of tickets, obs).

 

On the other hand, the showtimes are out there, so if the demand is there, so is the capacity.

 

===

 

Keeping a 3.5x pace with Aladdin (24.5) is even tougher, obs.

 

Aladdin (actuals)

Mon:            173

Tue:             298

Wed:            580

Thr-Mid:      585   

Thr-Final:    809

 

TLK (3.5x target):

Mon:           605

Tue:          1043

Wed:         2030

Thr-Mid:   2048

Thr-Final:  2831

 

That would give a final comp of 3.5082x Aladdin (24.56m) [13682 v 3900].  3.5x on the nose (24.5m) would be 13650 so 32 tickets can be removed somewhere along the way.

 

That target...  Seems very optimistic to me right now. Yes, I think that is how I will put it.

 

Now Sacto is just one market.  So never read too much into it.  But those are the targets right now.  1.8x TS4 is probably more likely than 3.5x Aladdin and even the TS4 might be a best case scenario.  Just have to see if the demand is there or not.

[Porthos]

The one note of caution about my last post is I don't know if BOTH Aladdin and TS4 over-performed in Sacramento, or if the ATP was lower due to many more kids tickets being bought. 

 

Both Aladdin and TS4 came in well under what JW:FK (and various other large 4 quad movies for that matter) suggested.  And Aladdin predicted TS4 locally almost exactly (off by .036m - which isn't reported at that level anyway).  But that could be a fluke.  Perhaps supporting that idea is Pika Pika suggested a TS4 opening of 12.3m, which is almost dead on target as well.

 

I suspect it's the later explanation (ATP being lower), but there is a possibility that I got lucky on TS4 to Aladdin comp and that they both over-performed locally to the same degree.

 

When I make my final call I'll almost certainly use the Aladdin/TS4 comp.  Just noting though that it is possible using that comp that it could be under-predicted.  Kinda curious to see how it plays out.  

[FlashMaster659]

On 7/13/2019 at 3:39 PM, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - AMC Disney Springs 24 (Thursday)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 119/121

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 276/281

9:15 PM - 275/281

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 208/360

6:45 PM - 53/120

7:00 PM - 181/360

10:00 PM - 40/360

10:15 PM - 5/120

10:30 PM - 31/360

 

2D Dine-In

 

6:30 PM - 46/50

7:30 PM - 47/50

10:00 PM - 45/50

11:00 PM - 44/50

 

2D

 

6:15 PM - 132/158

7:15 PM (1) - 102/135

7:15 PM (2) - 109/137

7:45 PM (1) - 109/159

7:45 PM (2) - 92/133

8:15 PM - 403/532

9:45 PM - 104/158

10:45 PM - 80/135

10:50 PM - 66/137

11:15 PM (1) - 33/159

11:15 PM (2) - 28/133

11:30 PM - 41/532

 

Total

 

2669(+411)/5071 (52.6%)

 

The Lion King - AMC Disney Springs 24 (Thursday)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 119/121

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 275/281

9:15 PM - 275/281

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 227/360

6:45 PM - 60/120

7:00 PM - 213/360

10:00 PM - 58/360

10:15 PM - 5/120

10:30 PM - 32/360

 

2D Dine-In

 

6:30 PM - 47/50

7:30 PM - 47/50

10:00 PM - 46/50

11:00 PM - 44/50

 

2D

 

6:15 PM - 133/158

7:15 PM (1) - 108/135

7:15 PM (2) - 109/137

7:45 PM (1) - 112/159

7:45 PM (2) - 94/133

8:15 PM - 410/532

9:45 PM - 110/158

10:45 PM - 82/135

10:50 PM - 83/137

11:15 PM (1) - 52/159

11:15 PM (2) - 28/133

11:30 PM - 47/532

 

Total

 

2816(+147)/5071 (55.5%)

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - AMC Disney Springs 24 (Thursday)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 119/121

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 275/281

9:15 PM - 275/281

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 227/360

6:45 PM - 60/120

7:00 PM - 213/360

10:00 PM - 58/360

10:15 PM - 5/120

10:30 PM - 32/360

 

2D Dine-In

 

6:30 PM - 47/50

7:30 PM - 47/50

10:00 PM - 46/50

11:00 PM - 44/50

 

2D

 

6:15 PM - 133/158

7:15 PM (1) - 108/135

7:15 PM (2) - 109/137

7:45 PM (1) - 112/159

7:45 PM (2) - 94/133

8:15 PM - 410/532

9:45 PM - 110/158

10:45 PM - 82/135

10:50 PM - 83/137

11:15 PM (1) - 52/159

11:15 PM (2) - 28/133

11:30 PM - 47/532

 

Total

 

2816(+147)/5071 (55.5%)

That is phenomenal. So it looks like over performing in florida. I see the numbers stronger than AMC Empire in NYC.

[TwoMisfits]

I wonder if the "hold" (not knowing which MTC Deep Wang represents) is a "subscriber" thing...as in, a large portion of the presales are coming from the theater chain subscriber base, so they haven't figured out if people will actually walk up or prebuy and pay full price for The Lion King yet.  The same problem will kick in after the Atom deal tomorrow...people may prebuy at discounted prices at an astounding rate, but will they walk up at an equivalent "Star Wars type" number b/c they aren't enthusiastic to pay full price for the movie...

 

Should be interesting to watch...

 

 

Edited July 15, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[XXR vs XXR]

22 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 4 Days to Previews

 

Dolby Cinema: 2 show times, 235 tickets sold out of 410 available (57.32%)

IMAX: 2 show times, 128 tickets sold out of 302 available (42.38%)

3D: 10 show times, 56 tickets sold out of 794 available (07.05%)

Digital: 21 show times, 173 tickets sold out of 1268 available (13.64%)

Fan Event: 1 show time, 98 tickets sold out of 125 available (78.40%)

 

Total: 36 show times, 690 tickets sold out of 2898 available (23.81%)

 

 

Comps

Captain Marvel - 1140 tickets sold by 5:30pm on Wednesday before previews

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 3:30pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

 

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 3 Days to Previews

 

 

36 show times, 779 (+89) tickets sold out of 2898 available (26.88%)

 

 

Comps

Captain Marvel - 1140 tickets sold by 5:30pm on Wednesday before previews

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 3:30pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

I wonder if the "hold" (not knowing which MTC Deep Wang represents) is a "subscriber" thing...as in, a large portion of the presales are coming from the theater chain subscriber base, so they haven't figured out if people will actually walk up or prebuy and pay full price for The Lion King yet.  The same problem will kick in after the Atom deal tomorrow...people may prebuy at discounted prices at an astounding rate, but will they walk up at an equivalent "Star Wars type" number b/c they aren't enthusiastic to pay full price for the movie...

 

Should be interesting to watch...

 

 

I mean these Atom deals have happened before and I've never seen them make a huge difference with comps

[Cap]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is phenomenal. So it looks like over performing in florida. I see the numbers stronger than AMC Empire in NYC.

Well, it *IS* a Disney Theater.  

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

Well, it *IS* a Disney Theater.  

Its an AMC theater at Disney World. So does that help in having bigger PS?

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/14/2019 at 3:59 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 71/411(+12)

10 PM – 11/411

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 5/48

7:10 PM – 10/48(+5)

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 81/187(+3)

10:30 PM – 7/187

Dolby:

6 PM- 157/217(+1)

9 PM – 90/217(+7)

11:50 PM – 18/217(+6)

2D:

6 PM – 49/158(+1)

6 PM – 7/56(+3)

6:10 PM – 6/48

6:20 PM – 12/44(+2)

6:40 PM – 13/94(+4)

6:50 PM – 19/92

7:20 PM – 15/44

7:40 PM – 4/56

7:50 PM – 2/44(+2)

8 PM – 11/40

8:10 PM – 4/36(+2)

8:20 PM – 8/48

8:30 PM – 11/94

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 4/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 5/94

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 3/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 5/158(+3)

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 108/384(+15)

10 PM – 13/384(+2)

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 19/85

7:30 PM – 8/52(+4)

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

Dolby:

6 PM – 135/210(+9)

9 PM – 91/210(+21)

2D:

6 PM – 55/159(+3)

6:10 PM – 18/52(+2)

6:15 PM – 8/52(+6)

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 21/85

6:50 PM – 12/39(+5)

7:10 PM – 11/45

7:15 PM – 4/85

7:20 PM – 4/45(+2)

7:40 PM – 3/52

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 24/159(+5)

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 15/85

9:10 PM – 8/52

9:15 PM – 4/52(+2)

9:20 PM – 11/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 11/159(+1)

Total from 9 theaters(154 showings): 3332(+267)/20422 (16.3%)

Well, at least the tickets sold are increasing. Even if only by a small amount. Though the AMC theaters did a lot more heavy lifting today, and some of the weaker theaters did pretty bad even by their standards.

 

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX: 

7 PM – 86/411(+15)

10 PM – 11/411

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 12/48(+7)

7:10 PM – 10/48

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 92/187(+11)

10:30 PM – 7/187

Dolby:

6 PM- 167/217(+10)

9 PM – 106/217(+16)

11:50 PM – 20/217(+2)

2D: 

6 PM – 49/158

6 PM – 14/56(+7)

6:10 PM – 6/48

6:20 PM – 12/44

6:40 PM – 14/94(+1)

6:50 PM – 19/92

7:20 PM – 15/44

7:40 PM – 7/56(+3)

7:50 PM – 2/44

8 PM – 11/40

8:10 PM – 4/36

8:20 PM – 8/48

8:30 PM – 13/94(+2)

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 6/158(+2)

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 9/94(+4)

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 3/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 5/158

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX: 

7 PM – 117/384(+9)

10 PM – 22/384(+9)

Real D 3D: 

6:30 PM – 19/85

7:30 PM – 8/52

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

Dolby: 

6 PM – 139/210(+4)

9 PM – 96/210(+5)

2D:

6 PM – 65/159(+10)

6:10 PM – 18/52

6:15 PM – 8/52

6:20 PM – 12/41(+12)

6:40 PM – 23/85(+2)

6:50 PM – 16/39(+4)

7:10 PM – 11/45

7:15 PM – 4/85

7:20 PM – 4/45

7:40 PM – 5/52(+2)

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 30/159(+6)

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 17/85(+2)

9:10 PM – 8/52

9:15 PM – 4/52

9:20 PM – 11/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 11/159

 

Total from 9 theaters(154 showings): 3749(+417)/20422 (18.4%)

Finally the big jump I’ve been waiting for.

Edited July 15, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its an AMC theater at Disney World. So does that help in having bigger PS?

Well I mean logically speaking folks attending Disney World are probably more likely to be fans of Disney properties than random folks.  I think @captainwondyful is pretty right in noting that a theater smack dab in Disney World might see an over-performance than a theater in, oh say Seattle or somewhere well outside the Disney penumbra.

[Eric Duncan]

I still don't get why Disney has a movie theater on Disney World property. I guess Disney doesn't care, but what kind of dummy wastes precious park time over something they can already do at home?

[Cap]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Well I mean logically speaking folks attending Disney World are probably more likely to be fans of Disney properties than random folks.  I think @captainwondyful is pretty right in noting that a theater smack dab in Disney World might see an over-performance than a theater in, oh say Seattle or somewhere well outside the Disney penumbra.

I was just coming in here to type this.

 

 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I still don't get why Disney has a movie theater on Disney World property. I guess Disney doesn't care, but what kind of dummy wastes precious park time over something they can already do at home?

Get to see a film with a bunch of like minded people?  Get to see a film as part of a group outing?  For folks with an Annual Pass, get bored with the attractions after a while and just want to see a flick at the park before attending a couple of other things?

 

Technically it's at Disney Springs which is, well, a glorified giant mall/entertainment complex. So, that's as good a reason as any, really.  At a mall/restaurant complex and catch a movie while you're there.

Edited July 15, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

This deal just popped up on Atom.  Clearly trying to go after families and sell some more 3D tickets (which is interesting, cause you would think they wouldn't have to do a discount to get people to buy tickets).

 

Edited July 16, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Eric Duncan]

7 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

This deal just popped up on Atom.  Clearly trying to go after families and sell some more 3D tickets (which is interesting, cause you would think they wouldn't have to do a discount to get people to sell tickets).

 

You need to charge your phone.

[Eric Duncan]

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	4,052	19,190	21.12%

 

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 228

Total Seats Sold Today: 464

 

That Seats Sold number certainly seems good. But is a 46% jump from yesterday good enough for 20M previews or higher? I don't know, but we'll see. At the very least, it is chugging along and selling briskly. Current showtimes that had been empty are starting to fill up, and tomorrow will have a whole slew of new showings to help boost up these numbers.  I'm optimistic over the next couple days

[Cap]

The Lion King

Thursday Previews

 

Only Lion King tonight.

 

The Lion King
	7.5	7.8	7.1	7.12	7.15	Total	Sold	%	Shows
Empire 25	1698	990	1109	1239	1485	7341	246	20.22%	40
Lincoln Square 13	1288	1389	1458	1595	1763	6472	168	27.24%	21
SM Cinemagic	58	79	103	143	202	2434	59	8.99%	14

 

Overall, good jumps for the weekend.  Very proud of my local Cinemagic for selling 59 tickets. One thing I am seeing: 9:30PM when it goes off a cliff, so to say.  Feels very much like a family film (since we're having a family film v blockbuster debate).  I'll be very interested to see how those late show fill up during the week.

 

v Comps Final Day
Movie	Sold	%	Est.
Lincoln Square 13
TLK	1763	--	--
Endgame	5259	33.52%	20.11
Aladdin	836	209.68%	14.67
Toy Story 4	1273	138.49%	16.6
v T-4 Days Out
Movie	Sold	%	Est.
Lincoln Square 13
TLK	1763	--	--
Aladdin	627	281.18%	19.68
Toy Story 4	793	222.32%	26.67

 

I'm not comping SMCM because: (1) Aladdin way way way way underperformed and (2) Toy Story sold 431 of its 558 tickets in the last 24 hours.  

 

Looking good.  If I had to SWAG right now, I would still stick with 20M.  Lincoln Square tends to overperform due to its IMAX.  Maybe during my endless waiting in line I can dig up the old estimates and see if I can get a ballpark range for how much it tends to overperform.  

Edited July 16, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	240	18277	24223	5946	24.55%

 

Total Showings Added Today:          13 (5 non-reserved seating)

Total Seats Added Today:              859

Total Seats Sold Today:                 821

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.0040x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 3 days before release.

3.6523x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 3 days before release.

4.1580x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 3 days before release.

1.8335x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 3 days before release.

 

T-3:

Pika       238 seats sold [0 sellouts/71 shows  |   6647/8132 seats    | 1485 seats sold |  18.26% sold]

Aladdin 173 seats sold [0 sellouts/93 shows   | 10983/12611 seats  | 1628 seats sold |  12.91% sold]

KotM     131 seats sold [0 sellouts/101 shows | 12310/13740 seats  | 1430 seats sold | 10.41% sold]

TS4       460 seats sold [0 sellouts/119 shows | 11061/14304 seats  | 3243 seats sold | 22.67% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.8757x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 3 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-3:

JW2         443 seats sold [0 sellouts/118 shows |   9224/12097 seats | 2873 seats sold | 23.75% sold]

TLK (JW)  701 seats sold   [1 sellout/240 shows | 15548/20937 seats | 5389 seats sold | 25.74% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[ThomasNicole]

Seems like big jumps overall, nice