The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

So I decided just now to see what TLK needs locally to keep pace with 1.8x TS4 (21.6m):

 

TS4 (actuals):

Mon:            460

Tue:             538

Wed:            816

Thr-Mid:      881   

Thr-Final:  1228

 

TLK (1.8x target):

Mon:           828

Tue:            968

Wed:         1469

Thr-Mid:   1586

Thr-Final:  2210

 

 

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	240	18277	24223	5946	24.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                 821

 

Practically right on target for 1.8x TS4 (21.6m).

 

But the hill is only gonna get steeper from here, so don't pop the champagne bottles quite yet.

 

That cautionary note aside, just a terrific day locally.  Strong sales everywhere, with a decent amount of surges.

 

Did see a couple, and I do stress a couple, of 3D showings at theaters with Atom ticketing that saw decent jumps (20+ tickets sold at two showings IIRC).  Could be Atom.  Could be random.  Wasn't a HUGE factor though.  3D ticket sales jumped from 590 (11.51% of tickets sold) tickets sold to 690 (11.60% of tickets sold) tickets sold.  Not all of them were Atom theaters as I said.  But could be a minor factor at the edges.

Edited July 16, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Could be Atom.  Could be random.  Wasn't a HUGE factor though.  

3D at Empire 25 saw a good boost this weekend, too.  

[john2000]

41 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Practically right on target for 1.8x TS4 (21.6m).

 

But the hill is only gonna get steeper from here, so don't pop the champagne bottles quite yet.

 

That cautionary note aside, just a terrific day locally.  Strong sales everywhere, with a decent amount of surges.

 

Did see a couple, and I do stress a couple, of 3D showings at theaters with Atom ticketing that saw decent jumps (20+ tickets sold at two showings IIRC).  Could be Atom.  Could be random.  Wasn't a HUGE factor though.  3D ticket sales jumped from 590 (11.51% of tickets sold) tickets sold to 690 (11.60% of tickets sold) tickets sold.  Not all of them were Atom theaters as I said.  But could be a minor factor at the edges.

depending on how the next few day will go the movie could come closer to either aladdin or ts4, fingers crossed

[RamblinRed]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

Get to see a film with a bunch of like minded people?  Get to see a film as part of a group outing?  For folks with an Annual Pass, get bored with the attractions after a while and just want to see a flick at the park before attending a couple of other things?

 

Technically it's at Disney Springs which is, well, a glorified giant mall/entertainment complex. So, that's as good a reason as any, really.  At a mall/restaurant complex and catch a movie while you're there.

Yeah that's a huge complex. it draws from the surrounding area as well. There are alot of people who go to Disney Springs who don't go to the parks. They are staying at the condos/hotels nearby as well as locals.

 

But I would also expect it to overperform compared to other theaters.

 

Edited July 16, 2019 by RamblinRed

[Taruseth]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Practically right on target for 1.8x TS4 (21.6m).

 

But the hill is only gonna get steeper from here, so don't pop the champagne bottles quite yet.

 

That cautionary note aside, just a terrific day locally.  Strong sales everywhere, with a decent amount of surges.

 

Did see a couple, and I do stress a couple, of 3D showings at theaters with Atom ticketing that saw decent jumps (20+ tickets sold at two showings IIRC).  Could be Atom.  Could be random.  Wasn't a HUGE factor though.  3D ticket sales jumped from 590 (11.51% of tickets sold) tickets sold to 690 (11.60% of tickets sold) tickets sold.  Not all of them were Atom theaters as I said.  But could be a minor factor at the edges.

Don't know how it behaves but I think it should have a chance to match TS4 increase today too but honestly fear it won't match the final two days. On the other hand the pure fact that it was able to match Monday is quite great already.

[cdsacken]

Still very possible it does "only" 18m then has an awesome multiplier like 11x to hit near 200.

 

Seems like a very wide range for OW

Edited July 16, 2019 by cdsacken

[TwoMisfits]

Interesting that Disney also put out a specific Atom 3d deal that can be used with the TMobile Atom deal...that's packing quite a discount for 3d for their tentpole that they did not give Aladdin or Toys 4...should help spike the weekend, but may affect the legs we see afterward (and especially a 2nd weekend drop)...

Edited July 16, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Interesting that Disney also put out a specific Atom 3d deal that can be used with the TMobile Atom deal...that's packing quite a discount for 3d for their tentpole that they did not give Aladdin or Toys 4...should help spike the weekend, but may affect the legs we see afterward (and especially a 2nd weekend drop)...

i dont believe that it will affect the dom total much if at all

[john2000]

10 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Still very possible it does "only" 18m then has an awesome multiplier like 11x to hit near 200.

 

Seems like a very wide range for OW

of course however the bigger the preview the better

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, john2000 said:

i dont believe that it will affect the dom total much if at all

Then you don't realize how people are moved by discounts vs full prices, especially in the non-subscriber base.  The easiest examples from this year were Wonder Park vs Missing Link vs UglyDolls...one gave DOM folks a significant discount, the other two did not.

 

If the movie isn't an actual horrific turn-off like 2019 Hellboy, nor a spectacular achievement like Titanic, discounts always help swell the possible audience.  How much is only the question...and that is usually based on what % the base already is and what % the "fence sitters" are...for Disney, the base tends to be high, but they must be worried it's not as high as they thought...thus, the significant discounts going out this week, the only ones for a Disney movie all year (and yes, I do check that:)...

 

Once they get fence sitters in with presales, their revenue is booked...so they do swell their eventual domestic...for a movie with no base, that swing is significant...for Disney, it is less so, but still there...

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Then you don't realize how people are moved by discounts vs full prices, especially in the non-subscriber base.  The easiest examples from this year were Wonder Park vs Missing Link vs UglyDolls...one gave DOM folks a significant discount, the other two did not.

 

If the movie isn't an actual horrific turn-off like 2019 Hellboy, nor a spectacular achievement like Titanic, discounts always help swell the possible audience.  How much is only the question...and that is usually based on what % the base already is and what % the "fence sitters" are...for Disney, the base tends to be high, but they must be worried it's not as high as they thought...thus, the significant discounts going out this week, the only ones for a Disney movie all year (and yes, I do check that:)...

 

Once they get fence sitters in with presales, their revenue is booked...so they do swell their eventual domestic...for a movie with no base, that swing is significant...for Disney, it is less so, but still there...

we will know soon enough then

 

ps i dont have these kind of things in my country so ..... anyway

[XXR vs XXR]

ABC is doing a Lion King special tonight at 7pm CST. It’ll have interviews, BTS and an all new scene.

 

I’m curious if this will goose the presales even further.

[TwoMisfits]

On Lion King, 1st local (Cinemark) is set, and they kept their enormous 6 screens for TLK, but did not add to it.  Here is the set...

 

NEW

TLK (6 - 32 shows - that's Endgame amounts for showings, although not screens - 7 3d, 25 2d)

 

RETURNING

Spidey (2 - 10 showings) - dropped 1 screen/5 showings - not bad in TLK's wake

Toys 4 (1 - 5 showings) - dropped 1 screen/5 showings

Crawl (1 - 5 showings) - same

Stuber ( 1 - 5 showings) - same

Aladdin (.8 - 4 showings) - dropped 1 showing

Anabelle (.2 - 1 showing) - dropped 4 showings - last showing of night on Aladdin screen

 

GONE

Midsommar, Yesterday, a few foreign films...

 

In good news for the following weekend, it's obvious that the holdovers should have plenty of space to continue since TLK will give up 2 screens + to the new openers...only thing will be if they drop Anabelle (expected) and Aladdin (which I expect if it gets to the cheap-o)...of course, Stuber and Crawl might not be long for staying, either...this is a long way of saying Toys 4 and Spidey will have a long, long stay here:)...

 

PS - This Cinemark obviously wanted to get the jump on those TMobile users:)...earliest set in my area for the weekend...

Edited July 16, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

On Lion King, 1st local (Cinemark) is set, and they kept their enormous 6 screens for TLK, but did not add to it.  Here is the set...

 

NEW

TLK (6 - 32 shows - that's Endgame amounts for showings, although not screens - 7 3d, 25 2d)

 

RETURNING

Spidey (2 - 10 showings) - dropped 1 screen/5 showings - not bad in TLK's wake

Toys 4 (1 - 5 showings) - dropped 1 screen/5 showings

Crawl (1 - 5 showings) - same

Stuber ( 1 - 5 showings) - same

Aladdin (.8 - 4 showings) - dropped 1 showing

Anabelle (.2 - 1 showing) - dropped 4 showings - last showing of night on Aladdin screen

 

GONE

Midsommar, Yesterday, a few foreign films...

 

In good news for the following weekend, it's obvious that the holdovers should have plenty of space to continue since TLK will give up 2 screens + to the new openers...only thing will be if they drop Anabelle (expected) and Aladdin (which I expect if it gets to the cheap-o)...of course, Stuber and Crawl might not be long for staying, either...this is a long way of saying Toys 4 and Spidey will have a long, long stay here:)...

 

PS - This Cinemark obviously wanted to get the jump on those TMobile users:)...earliest set in my area for the weekend...

what do you think we are looking for spidey this weekend ? around 50-55 % drop ?

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, john2000 said:

what do you think we are looking for spidey this weekend ? around 50-55 % drop ?

Not sure yet...I'd like to see other places and their showings/screen drops (and if there's any theater drops as well)...loss of PLFs will hurt...the Atom deal will help...I'm a huge fan of the movie and Spidey and will tend to probably overpredict, so if I were betting, I might go the low end of your numbers...or even lower for a drop...but that is almost certainly not my brain talking...

 

But ask me again Thursday when we've seen some weekdays this week:)...and some more early takes from audiences on TLK...

[john2000]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

Not sure yet...I'd like to see other places and their showings/screen drops (and if there's any theater drops as well)...loss of PLFs will hurt...the Atom deal will help...I'm a huge fan of the movie and Spidey and will tend to probably overpredict, so if I were betting, I might go the low end of your numbers...or even lower for a drop...but that is almost certainly not my brain talking...

 

But ask me again Thursday when we've seen some weekdays this week:)...and some more early takes from audiences on TLK...

i hope that you wont mind but what is PLFs ?

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

i hope that you wont mind but what is PLFs ?

premium large format (screens)

[jedijake]

So are we suddenly looking at a preview number at or under $20 million? After showing patterns that would equate to $22-$24 million, has this week suddenly dropped that much?

[john2000]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

So are we suddenly looking at a preview number at or under $20 million? After showing patterns that would equate to $22-$24 million, has this week suddenly dropped that much?

wtf are you talking about ? the range is still 20-25

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So are we suddenly looking at a preview number at or under $20 million? After showing patterns that would equate to $22-$24 million, has this week suddenly dropped that much?

Huh? Where are you getting this from. Patterns have barely changed.