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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Apparently H&S is supposed to be far ahead of MI:6 (6m) and "slightly behind" FF8 (10.4m) as of the 12th.  I never bothered with MI:6 and FF8 was before my time as a tracker.  So if those films really did have light pre-sales before ramping up in the end, I haven't seen it personally.

 

If I cared enough, I might check MI:6's Pulse history to get some sense of its sales pattern.


SPOILER ALERT: I don't. :lol:

 

So just have to see if it really was worth it or not.  At least I'm not spending a lot of time on it. 👍

 

On Pulse Fallout sold barely anything until release week then had a gigantic ramp up

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

*compiles daily data*

 

Yeaaah, I think I'll hold off 'till Thr for H&S.  Then come hell or high water, I'll report them whatever they are.  Just not worth reporting a daily at the moment (and the percentages barely changed today from what I reported earlier).

 

IF this really is similar to MI:6 (as we don't have Pulse data for FF8) there really is no point in publishing a comp that will be woefully off the mark, as it will give an inaccurate/misleading reading of things.  Even is there is an amusement factor, I reckon it ain't worth it.

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted

Hmmmmm

 

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday   B.O.
             
Black Panther 35,429 36,302 39,934 65,453   $25.2m/$202m
Avengers: Infinity War 49,836 54,892 68,826 206,000   $39m/ $267.698m
Deadpool 2 23,134 28,896 41,212     $18.6m/$125.5m
SW: Solo 13,688 15,855 28,533     $14.1m/$84.42m
Jurassic World 2 9,310 12,761 23,266     $15.3m/ $148m
Antman & The Wasp  6,613 5,990 11,108     $11.5m/ $75.8m
Venom 13,602 13,818 20,867 31,569   $10m/$80.2m
Fantastic Beasts 2 8,956 14,238 21,861 31,880   $9.1m/$62.16m
Aquaman 8,502 9,671 15,063 25,201   ($4.7m)+$9m/$67.87m
Captain Marvel 33,951 37,060 49,745 64,456   $20.7m/$153.43m
Shazam! 5,083 N/A **5,975 17,143   ($3.2m)+ $5.9m/$53.5m
Avengers: End Game 53,999 62,351 75,977     $60m/$357m 
Incredibles 2 20,872 23,430 39,337     $18.6m/$182.687m
Toy Story 4 12,605 13,388 24,517     $12m/$122m
             
MI6   *3328 13,575 27,261   $6m/$61.236m
Rampage 705 1,508 4,109     $35.75m
Skyscraper 586 1,019 2,868 7,134   $1.95m/$24.5m
John Wick 7,867 10,932 18,211     $56m
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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So after h and s whats the next notable film down the pipe re tracking? IT?

 

I’ll do final numbers for several films, but the rest of my bi-weekly scheduling is for the following...

 

It: Chapter 2

Joker 

Maleficent 2

Frozen 2

Jumanji: Next Level

SW: TROS

 

Edited by VenomXXR
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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

In terms of presales and hype? Rest of year....

 

IT: Chapter 2

The Joker

Frozen 2

Jumanji: Next Level

Star Wars: Episode 9

Ouch! Not much big stuff till September 6th then and it

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Taruseth Box Office Gold

Taruseth

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Ouch! Not much big stuff till September 6th then and it

I think the biggest release is Hobbs&Shaw and will open below 100m and apart from that there is Hollywood next weekend, no idea what else. Also it's August kinda the dead part of Summer but it's just not as obvious as the July holdovers normally make it look good, let's hope TLK can do it too this year.

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, sold tickets for the previews on Thursday and for Friday,
counted today ca. at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 90 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 94 (total tickets sold for Friday, 5 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): - / 145 (4 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 184 / 122 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 85 / 67 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 89 / 29 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 36 / 28 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 71 / 52 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 234 / 256 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 164 / 127 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 516 (11 showtimes) / 311 (8 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till Monday for Thursday: 1.469 and for Friday: 1.231.

My only comps so far are Stuber which had on Monday 186 / 131 sold tickets (with showtimes in 7 theaters) and Crawl 143 / 114 (with showtimes in 9 theaters). That does not look bad for Once Upon a Time but of course it's way more presales-heavy.
 

Even harder to say if Hobbs & Shaw is doing ok. Overall I would also say that at the moment it doesn't have overwhelmingly good ticket sales. I counted only 3 theaters: In AMC Fresh Meadows (NY) it were (always all showtimes summed up) today 231 for the Thursday previews and 283 for Friday which looks good in comparison to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. But in AMC Lakeline (Austin) it were only 4 tickets for the Friday shows (no showtimes on Thursday so far) and in AMC Universal (LA) it were 174 for Thursday and 67 for Friday – so way behind Once Upon a Time.
But this could indeed be a film which increases rapidly in its release week.

Edited by el sid
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I’ll do final numbers for several films, but the rest of my bi-weekly scheduling is for the following...

 

It: Chapter 2

Joker 

Maleficent 2

Frozen 2

Jumanji: Next Level

SW: TROS

 

Speaking of this list, I realized recently that there is a non-zero percent chance that I'll be tracking

 

Frozen 2

Jumanji 3

SW:TROS

 

All.  At.  The. Same. Time.

 

Frozen 2 and TROS are (and were) a given, IMO.  Unless Disney decides to ape the Endgame strategy and try to goose sales by creating a frenzy three plus weeks before release, I reckon TROS will go on sale sometime in mid Oct like TFA and TLJ.  But I absolutely think there will be overlap between Jumanji and Frozen.  

 

Sure am looking forward to tracking 150+ shows for TROS (early slate, not final), 250+ shows for Frozen (final) and 90+ shows for Jumanji 3 (mid run slate) at the same time! 👍

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Eric Atreides Global Phenomenon

Eric Atreides

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Speaking of this list, I realized recently that there is a non-zero percent chance that I'll be tracking

 

Frozen 2

Jumanji 3

SW:TROS

 

All.  At.  The. Same. Time.

 

Frozen 2 and TROS are (and were) a given, IMO.  Unless Disney decides to ape the Endgame strategy and try to goose sales by creating a frenzy three plus weeks before release, I reckon TROS will go on sale sometime in mid Oct like TFA and TLJ.  But I absolutely think there will be overlap between Jumanji and Frozen.  

 

Sure am looking forward to tracking 150+ shows for TROS (early slate, not final), 250+ shows for Frozen (final) and 90+ shows for Jumanji 3 (mid run slate) at the same time! 👍

TBH, Jumanji seems destined to be a movie that will barely sell anything until the week of release.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

TBH, Jumanji seems destined to be a movie that will barely sell anything until the week of release.

God, I hope so.

 

I know the initial weekend was a tick under 40m for the first one.  But I fully expect the sequel to hit my 70m OW/7m preview guideline given it did leg out to 400m.  If it looks like it doesn't/won't (from forecasting sites like BOP or tracking) I will be VERY glad to drop it like a hot potato. :lol:

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

All.  At.  The. Same. Time.

Wait.  That means...

 

surprise omg GIF

 

tumblr_pv0mjttRYh1uoepd8o2_400.gif

 

 

==

 

My plans for the rest of the year is to track non-event/hype films the week before release, regardless of when they go on sale, and get a final night numbers for comps.  Going to keep eyes on the local Cinemagics, as well as Empire 25 and Lincoln Square 13.   I will start with OUATIH tonight.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Wait.  That means...

 

surprise omg GIF

 

tumblr_pv0mjttRYh1uoepd8o2_400.gif

 

I'm just happy for you that Knives Out comes out before Thanksgiving. :lol:  Otherwise we might have had the following situation occur:

 

captainwondyful's family:  Put away your phone, it's Thanksgiving.

captainwondyful: NO TIME FOR TURKEY! GOTTA TRACK KNIVES OUT.

captainwondyful's family: But-

captainwondyful: THIS IS FOR SCIENCE! PLUS IT'S EVANS!!!

captainwondyful's family:  Well, okay.  But hurry up, gravy's getting cold.

Edited by Porthos
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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Speaking of this list, I realized recently that there is a non-zero percent chance that I'll be tracking

 

Frozen 2

Jumanji 3

SW:TROS

 

All.  At.  The. Same. Time.

 

Frozen 2 and TROS are (and were) a given, IMO.  Unless Disney decides to ape the Endgame strategy and try to goose sales by creating a frenzy three plus weeks before release, I reckon TROS will go on sale sometime in mid Oct like TFA and TLJ.  But I absolutely think there will be overlap between Jumanji and Frozen.  

 

Sure am looking forward to tracking 150+ shows for TROS (early slate, not final), 250+ shows for Frozen (final) and 90+ shows for Jumanji 3 (mid run slate) at the same time! 👍

Arent you glad you love what you do?

 

:stretcher:

 

 

Ill be tracking a few theatres in toronto and i get a twitch. But you doing that greater area you do?

 

 

Yieeeeeeeeee..

 

 

.

Edited by Tinalera
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Well, I love the likes at least. :lol:

 

(wait, did I say the quiet part out loud again?  crap!)

In case people couldn't tell, I was joking here.  I do enjoy tracking.

 

But, not gonna lie, also enjoy the likes as well.  Only human, after all. :ph34r:

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Speaking of this list, I realized recently that there is a non-zero percent chance that I'll be tracking

 

Frozen 2

Jumanji 3

SW:TROS

 

All.  At.  The. Same. Time.

 

Frozen 2 and TROS are (and were) a given, IMO.  Unless Disney decides to ape the Endgame strategy and try to goose sales by creating a frenzy three plus weeks before release, I reckon TROS will go on sale sometime in mid Oct like TFA and TLJ.  But I absolutely think there will be overlap between Jumanji and Frozen.  

 

Sure am looking forward to tracking 150+ shows for TROS (early slate, not final), 250+ shows for Frozen (final) and 90+ shows for Jumanji 3 (mid run slate) at the same time! 👍

Get some rest Porthos. The last quarter of the year is going to be insane!

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