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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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I wouldn’t be shocked if Hobbs and Shaw misses $40M for the OW (Hell I can see a low $30M debut for it maybe even missing $30M all together but I don’t wanna bet on that :ph34r:)For a supposed franchise film, it’s sales around here are quite bleak. I haven’t tracked a movie for sometime though so I maybe off on this. 

Edited by Nova
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1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

I mean it has flying cars and overly muscular dudes sweating and yelling a lot

 

BUTT

 

It has no Vin Diesel saying "Family".

they should have gone with the tagline "Family Goes Nuclear"

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Theater I track was pretty optimistic for H & S, giving this eight screenings for preview night, but so far only 34 out of 504 seats sold. Looks sub $50 to me unless it really starts ramping up.

Edited by A Star is Orm
typo
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Warner always take a long time to announce that tickets went on sale for a Horror movie, I remember tracking The Nun last year, and they only announced that tickets were on sale almost 2 weeks after they started selling it,

 

In any case, I wouldn't expect huge numbers on pre-sales, both TN and IT1 only exploded in the release week.

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36 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Fast & Furious brand should power it to over $40M alone. That said, without it, this probably wouldn't be opening much higher than Skyscraper did.

The brand-power is one thing. But the characters are also well liked and were a highlight in F8 if I remember the reception on BOT accurately. It's true that what's good in small or reasonable doses may not be a great headliner (eg Minions) but that shouldn't affect the ow and anticipation (eg Minions again).

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3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

I mean it has flying cars and overly muscular dudes sweating and yelling a lot

 

BUTT

 

It has no Vin Diesel saying "Family".

I'd say too muscular, don't think that will draw many people in. The Rock is, sorry to say it, he probably puts a lot of work (and other things) into it, but that is almost scary.

 

Did you add that second t on purpose?

 

 

 

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So far, so good on H&S's RT score.

 

Mind I haven't looked at the motherthread so maybe that's misleading and a wave of bad reviews is in the wings.  But if this lands at 65 to 75 I have no clue why Universal waited so long to release the embargo.

 

Should just be more proof not to read TOO much into late embargo lifts.  Or early ones. for that matter.

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4 hours ago, Nova said:

For a supposed franchise film, it’s sales around here are quite bleak.

I think Hobbs & Shaw's underperforming because we all expected it to act like a F&F film.  Only issue?  Movie's been promoted like a Rock Movie.  And if you look at his last five OWs in the past two years:

 

24.9M Skyscraper 

35.7M Rampage

36.1M Jumanji

18.5M Baywatch

35.5M Central Intelligence

 

Average: 30.14M

Take out the BW Outlier: 33.05M

 

Thursday Night Previews:

2.40M Rampage

1.95M Skyscraper

 

(Which is as low as it's comping out to currently at Lincoln Square)

 

So if we take the F&F out of the expectations, I guess the movie's performing as expected?

 

(And, I will be the first to admit, I totally jumped on the F&F bandwagon.  My Summer Game will SUUUFFFER because of it.)

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3 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I think Hobbs & Shaw's underperforming because we all expected it to act like a F&F film.  Only issue?  Movie's been promoted like a Rock Movie.  And if you look at his last five OWs in the past two years:

 

24.9M Skyscraper 

35.7M Rampage

36.1M Jumanji

18.5M Baywatch

35.5M Central Intelligence

 

Average: 30.14M

Take out the BW Outlier: 33.05M

 

Thursday Night Previews:

2.40M Rampage

1.95M Skyscraper

 

(Which is as low as it's comping out to currently at Lincoln Square)

 

So if we take the F&F out of the expectations, I guess the movie's performing as expected?

 

(And, I will be the first to admit, I totally jumped on the F&F bandwagon.  My Summer Game will SUUUFFFER because of it.)

Are their budget also 200m?

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6 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

Are their budget also 200m?

That's a completely different conversation.  

 

(And I just checked . Rampage was 120M and Skyscraper was 125M)

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7 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

Are their budget also 200m?

So blame Universal for mis-marketing this film then.  Or mis-budgeting it.  Or both.

 

Though given reviews are coming in better than some expected, could be more on the first than the latter.

 

Also, if this IS a crowdpleaser, could have really great legs given there hasn't been a pure action flick since Wick 3 AND August and September are wide open for this kind of film,

Edited by Porthos
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16 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I think Hobbs & Shaw's underperforming because we all expected it to act like a F&F film.  Only issue?  Movie's been promoted like a Rock Movie.  And if you look at his last five OWs in the past two years:

 

24.9M Skyscraper 

35.7M Rampage

36.1M Jumanji

18.5M Baywatch

35.5M Central Intelligence

 

Average: 30.14M

Take out the BW Outlier: 33.05M

 

Thursday Night Previews:

2.40M Rampage

1.95M Skyscraper

 

(Which is as low as it's comping out to currently at Lincoln Square)

 

So if we take the F&F out of the expectations, I guess the movie's performing as expected?

 

(And, I will be the first to admit, I totally jumped on the F&F bandwagon.  My Summer Game will SUUUFFFER because of it.)

Great analysis. 👍  Might also be interesting to rope in recent Jason Statham movies.  

 

Mind, I'm more bullish than you on previews, but it also could be a Super-sized Rock/Statham movie which might mean a bit higher on the preview range than what those numbers suggest.

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33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Great analysis. 👍  Might also be interesting to rope in recent Jason Statham movies.

 

Oh, you don't want to see those numbers.  :rofl:

 

Jason Statham's last OWs (Not F&F):

 

45.4M The Meg

7.4M Mechanic: Resurrection

29.0M Spy

15.8M The Expendables 3

6.9M Homefront

 

Average: 20.9M

 

And if you remember that The Meg was promoted as a "giant shark movie" and Spy was a McCarthy/Feig Comedy" it's

 

Average: 10M

 

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Mind, I'm more bullish than you on previews, but it also could be a Super-sized Rock/Statham movie which might mean a bit higher on the preview range than what those numbers suggest.

Mind, my local Cinemagic -- which is currently comping higher that LS13 -- is RIDICULOUSLY Walk-Up Heavy.  With those semi-decent reviews, it could bubble up.

 

I also feel that with August basically DEAAAAAD and zero rush factor that we shouldn't be in panic mode with this if it lands at like 45M OW.  Let's wait for the second week drop.

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On 6/19/2018 at 11:39 PM, Porthos said:

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

145

10171

13595

25.19%

 

Total Showings Added Today:    27 (13 non reserved seating showings added)

Total Seats Added Today:      1498

Total Seats Sold Today:            551

 

.3172x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 2 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.6486x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 2 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales) 

.6722x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  2 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) 

.7607x as many tickets sold as Solo 2 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales) 

 

====

 

More detailed T-2 comps:

 

IW:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

8

162

3875

14671

73.59%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          691

 

BP:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

7

111

5080

10359

50.96%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          766

 

DP2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

141

9796

14890

36.70%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          725

 

Solo:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

135

8879

13380

33.64%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          236

 

 

 

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

Hobbs & Shaw Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

116

11744

12784

1040

8.14%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       41 (12 at non-reserved seating theaters)

Total Seats Added Today:          4620

Total Seats Sold Today:               260

 

Apparently I don't have ANY good comps for this film given its sale pattern.  Might throw in some others at the last moment, or I might change them entirely after thinking about it some more. But here are four recent comps.  DON'T TAKE MUCH (if anything) FROM THESE:

 

Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

0.5826x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 2 days before release.       [3.32m]

0.6428x as many tickets sold as John Wick 3 2 days before release.                [3.79m]

0.5400x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 2 days before release.                      [3.78m]

0.6353x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 2 days before release.  [4.00m]

0.1523x as many tickets sold as The Lion King 2 days before release.             [3.50m]

 

T-2:

Pika       300 seats sold [0 sellouts/101 shows |  7619/9404 seats    | 1785 seats sold |  18.98% sold]

Wick 3   271 seats sold [0 sellouts/76 shows   |  8521/10139 seats  | 1618 seats sold |  15.96% sold]

Aladdin  298 seats sold [0 sellouts/116 shows | 11970/13896 seats | 1926 seats sold |  13.86% sold]

KotM     207 seats sold [0 sellouts/120 shows | 13471/15108 seats | 1637 seats sold |  10.84% sold]

TLK       884 seats sold  [1 sellout/263 shows | 18651/25481 seats  | 6830 seats sold |  26.80% sold]

Jurassic World as a comp?  30% as many tickets sold 2 days before release, 1040 vs 3424. With similar walkups would indicate around 4.5m in previews. 

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4 minutes ago, MattW said:

 

Jurassic World as a comp?  30% as many tickets sold 2 days before release, 1040 vs 3424. With similar walkups would indicate around 4.5m in previews. 

I have more sources of tracking now, so the comp would be worse.  Also KotM is something of a stand-in for JW:FK, even if it collapsed on the final week.

 

I can give an adjusted comp for JW:FK if you want, I just need to make the manual adjustment.

Edited by Porthos
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1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I have more sources of tracking now, so the comp would be better.

Wouldn’t that make the comp lower? Anyway FK is a good example of very walkup-heavy, seems better than the other 5 to me (though, not a super high bar 😛 ).

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7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I have more sources of tracking now, so the comp would be worse.  Also KotM is something of a stand-in for JW:FK, even if it collapsed on the final week.

 

I can give an adjusted comp for JW:FK if you want, I just need to make the manual adjustment.

 

On an adjusted basis as of last night:

 

0.2850x the tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom two days before release. [4.36m]

So a bit off of KotM's suggested comp [4.0m]

 

@MattW

 

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Wouldn’t that make the comp lower? Anyway FK is a good example of very walkup-heavy, seems better than the other 5 to me (though, not a super high bar 😛 ).

I edited my post very quickly, but not quickly enough, it would seem.

 

(my attention is mostly on Baseball Trade Season right now. :lol:)

Edited by Porthos
Had to adjust the adjust as I took too much tracking out
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