The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

IT Chapter 2

AMC Empire 25.

 

With just 2 weeks to go I wanted to take a status check on where things stand. Dolby and Prime prime time shows have sold good amount of ticket otherwise things are still dire.

 

Spoiler

IT Chapter 2
AMC Empire 25

Imax -103/303 (7PM),12/303 (1115PM) -115/606
Dolby -172/225 (7PM), 13/225 (11PM) -185/450
Prime -123/180 (7PM),22/180 (1045PM) - 145/360

2D - 5/145(A25 5PM), 7/134(A5 515PM),4/126(A3 530PM),2/134(A10 545PM), 4/121(A21 6PM), 4/121 (A15 615PM), 2/99 (A11 630PM), 15/99 (A16 645PM), 17/142 (A19 715PM), 13/262(A17 730PM), 8/144(A20 745PM), 12/262(A12 8PM),4/148(A6 815PM),15/146(A7 830PM), 2/145(A25 845PM), 6/134(A5 9PM), 5/126(A3 915PM), 4/122(A10 930PM),2/121 (A21 945PM), 2/121(A15 10PM),0/99(A11 1015PM),13/99(A16 1030PM),0/309(A9 1110PM), 8/142 (A19 1120PM), 8/262 (A17 1130PM),9/144(A20 1140PM), 9/262 (A12 1150PM),4/148 (A6 12AM) -  184/4315(3338)

Overall  - 629(546)/5731 (~11%) +83(Since last update 5 days back)

 

[Porthos]

It: Chapter 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	13966	14903	937	6.29%

 

Total Showings Added Today*	11
Total Seats Added Today	802
Total Seats Sold Today	61

* Includes one non-reserved seating showing.

 

Not really sure what to use as a comp for this film, since as I understand it horror isn't that pre-sale heavy.  Maybe.  For now, gonna throw in a few recent ones along with JW2 and DP2 and hope for the best.

 

T-14 Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika	181.94		18	515		0/75	8133/8648	5.93%		10.37m
Aladdin	125.44		21	747		0/70	9250/9997	7.47%		8.78m
KotM	154.62		46	606		0/87	11010/11616	5.22%		9.74m
TS4	60.73		54	1543		0/90	10764/12307	12.54%		7.29m
TLK	38.21		89	2452		0/183	17707/20159	12.16%		8.79m

PRE-SALES NOTE: Detective Pikachu had 30 days of pre-sales, Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and KotM had 21 days of pre-sales.  In comparison It 2 had 36 days of pre-sales. 

 

T-14 Adjusted Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
JW2	61.51		59	1408		0/97	8705/10113	13.92%		9.41m
DP2	34.58		177	2504		0/104	10465/12969	19.31%		6.43m
It 2 (adj)	n/a		61	866		0/117	11131/11997	7.22%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 23 days of pre-sales and Deadpool 2 had 30 days of pre-sales, while It 2 had 36. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2.

[dxmatrixdt]

50 - Midway - 50                                    40 - Charlies Angels - 40

27 - Doctor Sleep - 27                            20 - Midway - 90

15 - Terminator - 70                               12 - Doctor Sleep - 48

15 - The Last Xmas - 15                          10 - Ford v Ferrari - 10

10 - Playing With Fire - 10                      10 - The Good Liar - 10

 8 - Maleficent - 150                                 7 - Terminator - 84

 6 - Artic Dogs - 20                                   7 - The Last Xmas - 28

 6 - Harriet - 20                                         5 - Playing with Fire - 19

 6 - Motherless Brooklyn - 20                   4 - Maleficent - 156

 2 - Black & Blue - 22                                4 - All Rise - 4

 2 - Countdown - 22

 2 - Last Full Measure - 22

 2 - Zombieland - 62

 

530 - The Lion King

390 - Spider-Man

260 - It: Chapter 2

260 - Joker

170 - Hobbes & Shaw

140 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

 67 - Good Boys

 57 - The Addams Family

 55 - AD Astra

 55 - Dora the Explorer

 55 - Rambo: The Last Blood

 55 - Abominable

 44 - Angel Has Fallen 

 44 - Angry Birds 2

 43 - The Hustle 

 40 - Gemini Man

 33 - Ready or Not

 30 - Goldfinch 

 28 - Jex

[lorddemaxus]

16 minutes ago, 2010s Painkiller Race said:

50 - Midway - 50                                    40 - Charlies Angels - 40

27 - Doctor Sleep - 27                            20 - Midway - 90

15 - Terminator - 70                               12 - Doctor Sleep - 48

 15 - The Last Xmas - 15                          10 - Ford v Ferrari - 10

10 - Playing With Fire - 10                      10 - The Good Liar - 10

 8 - Maleficent - 150                                 7 - Terminator - 84

 6 - Artic Dogs - 20                                   7 - The Last Xmas - 28

 6 - Harriet - 20                                         5 - Playing with Fire - 19

 6 - Motherless Brooklyn - 20                   4 - Maleficent - 156

 2 - Black & Blue - 22                                4 - All Rise - 4

 2 - Countdown - 22

 2 - Last Full Measure - 22

 2 - Zombieland - 62

 

530 - The Lion King

390 - Spider-Man

260 - It: Chapter 2

260 - Joker

170 - Hobbes & Shaw

140 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

 67 - Good Boys

 57 - The Addams Family

 55 - AD Astra

 55 - Dora the Explorer

 55 - Rambo: The Last Blood

 55 - Abominable

 44 - Angel Has Fallen 

 44 - Angry Birds 2

 43 - The Hustle 

 40 - Gemini Man

 33 - Ready or Not

 30 - Goldfinch 

 28 - Jex

What are these numbers actually?

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

What are these numbers actually?

His weekly predictions I would guess.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Angel Has Fallen Friday

Theaters: 250

Showings: 1899

Tickets Sold: 13169 (0.9x Scary Stories)

Seats Available: 301101 (impressive for the sales, I guess theaters are expecting big walkups)

Estimated ATP: 11.34

Total Estimated Sales: 149373  (0.98x Scary Stories)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.3 million

Projected Friday: 7-7.5 million (expecting better walkups than Scary Stories)

 

Overcomer Friday

Theaters: 187

Showings: 938

Tickets Sold: 9388

Seats Available: 108952

Estimated ATP: 9.11

Estimated Total Sales: 85517

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 700k

Projected Friday: 2-2.5 million (don't have good comps, but this seems like the kind of movie that would be quite presale heavy)

[Eric Atreides]

It Chapter Two Greater Philadelphia Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	777	20,251	3.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 34

 

Adjusted Comp

0.317x of The Lion King 13 days before release (7.29M)

3.781x of Hobbs & Shaw 13 days before release (21.93M)

[Porthos]

Bit of a heads up here.  One of the theaters I've been tracking since the very beginning only had reserved seating on its PLF screen, and all other showings were non-reserved.  I've had a sense though that the last few holdouts in the region might convert over to reserved seating soon, and sure enough, this theater transfered over.

 

It happened either today or in the last couple of days.  I haven't religiously checked, but I have been keeping an eye out on it, just in case.  Not a single ticket has been sold in those now-reserved seating showings, so I suspect it happened either today or the last couple of days.

 

Either way, this now means that ALL of my comps will have to be adjusted, going backwards, with the JW2/DP2 being a slightly different adjustment.  Which is a bit of an irritation since I did so many comps this year, but whatcha gonna do?

Anywho, as I said, a heads up.  Gonna have to work on my chart a teeny bit but shouldn't be too much difficulty.

[Porthos]

As an aside, not counting the local drive-in, this now leaves only four theaters in the entire region that I track that are currently non-reserved seating (out of a total of twenty one, again not including the local drive in). 

 

One of them I suspect will either never switch over or be the last to switch over as it's a super cheap theater that while still first run makes it hey on being super cheap.   Another one will be any week/month now, as I suspect it's one of the busier in the region (I see the occasional sellout there which is kinda rare for non-reserved seating).

 

The two I'm unsure about are a pair of smaller theaters in Davis.  They're owned by Regal so they could switch over.  Or they could be so small that they'll be a long holdout as well.

 

Edited August 24, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

I feel like your new avatar is repeatedly headbutting me 😛     

 

I was surprised to see that one of my go to theaters had converted fully to reserved seating just in the past few weeks.

[Porthos]

It: Chapter 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	15476	16482	1006	6.10%

 

Total Showings Converted to Reserved Seating Today*	5
Total Seats Added Due To Conversion Today	1579
Total Seats Sold Today	69

* See this post for explanation

 

Not really sure what to use as a comp for this film, since as I understand it horror isn't that pre-sale heavy.  Maybe.  For now, gonna throw in a few recent ones along with JW2 and DP2 and hope for the best.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comps #1 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika	182.58		36	551		0/75	8097/8648	6.37%		10.41m
Aladdin	123.13		70	817		0/70	9180/9997	8.17%		8.62m
KotM	150.82		61	667		0/90	11465/12132	5.50%		9.50m
TS4	63.23		48	1591		0/90	10722/12313	12.92%		7.59m
TLK	39.31		107	2559		0/187	17838/20397	12.55%		9.04m
It 2 (adj)	n/a		69	1006		0/117	13987/14903	6.75%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Detective Pikachu had 30 days of pre-sales, Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and KotM had 21 days of pre-sales.  In comparison It 2 had 36 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comps #2 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
JW2	62.29		77	1485		0/97	8628/10113	14.85%		9.53m
DP2	35.58		96	2600		0/104	10369/12969	20.05%		6.62m
It 2 (JW adj)	n/a		59	925		0/117	11072/11997	7.71%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 23 days of pre-sales and Deadpool 2 had 30 days of pre-sales, while It 2 had 36. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (JW adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2.

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake City report for It 2, 12 days out, Sugarhouse Cinemark, 6 showtimes, all 2D.

 

104/463 22.5%

 

140% of Hobbs and Shaw, 94% of John Wick, and 103% of Godzilla just a few hours before previews.

 

It 2 has exploded in SLC the past 48 hours. If this pace continues, it should easily surpass every other movie I've tracked this summer aside from TLK. (I didn't track Spidey because of the mid-week release date.)

[Tinalera]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

As an aside, not counting the local drive-in, this now leaves only four theaters in the entire region that I track that are currently non-reserved seating (out of a total of twenty one, again not including the local drive in). 

 

One of them I suspect will either never switch over or be the last to switch over as it's a super cheap theater that while still first run makes it hey on being super cheap.   Another one will be any week/month now, as I suspect it's one of the busier in the region (I see the occasional sellout there which is kinda rare for non-reserved seating).

 

The two I'm unsure about are a pair of smaller theaters in Davis.  They're owned by Regal so they could switch over.  Or they could be so small that they'll be a long holdout as well.

 

Surprisingly inToronto area  still a fair amount of non reserved theatres. Its slowly changing but it makes looking for reserved for counts a bit tricky. As the trend seems to be headed for big budget / must see type movies and more people wanting to pick seat from phone reserved imo will continue  to gain popularity

[Tinalera]

Toronto ontario canada
IT Chapter 2 
Thursday sept 5

Scotiabank Theatre

 

No dates (!)

 

Eglinton (new addition!)

IMAX
600 10/339
945 4/339

AVX
630 2/383
1015 3/383

 

Queensway 

VIP

530 10/111
615 10/135
800 39/56
930 30/100
1015 6/135

AVX
630 31/377
1030 16/377

"X" 
530 6/224
930 0/224

 

Yonge and dundas

VIP

630 35/61
1030 7/61

AVX
615 35/386
945 5/386

IMAX

500 33/356
845 32/356

4DX
530 8/82

900 9/82

 

If numbers are right 340/4995 seats...optically that number seems small. 

 

A new addition theatre going forward.

Mostly stalled sales. Summer/september reasoning as before. It being R rated by nature is obviously going to have effect.
I stll think it will do very well. Just have to see what September and forward brings.

 

Edited August 24, 2019 by Tinalera
Added numbers

[Eric Atreides]

It Chapter Two Greater Philadelphia Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	804	20,251	3.97%

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

 

Adjusted Comp

0.317x of The Lion King 13 days before release (7.3M)

3.692x of Hobbs & Shaw 13 days before release (21.41M)

[Porthos]

It: Chapter 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	122	15701	16772	1071	6.39%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	290
Total Seats Sold Today	65

 

Not really sure what to use as a comp for this film, since as I understand it horror isn't that pre-sale heavy.  Maybe.  For now, gonna throw in a few recent ones along with JW2 and DP2 and hope for the best.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comps #1 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika	184.65		29	580		0/75	8068/8648	6.71%		10.53m
Aladdin	125.10		46	863		0/70	9134/9997	8.63%		8.69m
KotM	149.37		50	717		0/90	11415/12132	5.91%		9.41m
TS4	65.83		36	1627		0/90	10684/12311	13.22%		7.90m
TLK	39.78		133	2692		0/187	17705/20397	13.20%		9.15m
It 2 (adj)	n/a		65	1071		0/122	14122/15193	7.05%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Detective Pikachu had 30 days of pre-sales, Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and KotM had 21 days of pre-sales.  In comparison It 2 had 36 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block. See this post for explanation.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comps #2 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
JW2	64.25		45	1530		0/97	8583/10113	15.13%		9.83m
DP2	36.06		126	2726		0/104	10243/12969	21.02%		6.71m
It 2 (JW adj)	n/a		58	983		0/122	11304/12287	8.00%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 23 days of pre-sales and Deadpool 2 had 30 days of pre-sales, while It 2 had 36. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (JW adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2.

[XXR vs XXR]

On 8/21/2019 at 5:23 PM, VenomXXR said:

It: Chapter 2 — AMC Willowbrook 24 — 15 Days to Previews — 6pm CST

 

Dolby / IMAX: 4 shown times, 129 tickets sold out of 712 seats available (18.12%)

Digital: 22 show times, 26 tickets sold out of 1796 seats available (01.45%)

 

Total: 26 show times, 155 tickets sold out of 2508 seats available (06.18%)

 

It: Chapter 2 — AMC Willowbrook 24 — 11 Days to Previews — 12pm CST

 

Dolby / IMAX: 4 shown times, 135 tickets sold out of 712 seats available (18.96%)

Digital: 22 show times, 38 tickets sold out of 1796 seats available (02.12%)

 

Total: 26 show times, 173 tickets sold out of 2508 seats available (06.90%)

 

[Tinalera]

Toronto ontario canada
IT Chapter 2 
Thursday sept 5

Scotiabank Theatre

No dates (!)

 

Don mills ( new addition!)
VIP
530 0/115
615 4/115
930 1/115
1020 2/115

 

Yorkdale (new addition!)
AVX
500 2/349
845 13/349

Eglinton town  (new addition!)

IMAX
600 10/339
945 4/339

AVX
630 2/383
1015 3/383

 

Yonge and eglinton (new!)

 

VIP

500 2/95

615 17/91 

900 15/95

100 2/91

 

AVX

700 14/339

1045 0/339

 

Queensway 

VIP

530 10/111
615 12/135
800 39/56
930 30/100
1015 6/135

 

AVX
630 31/377
1030 16/377

"X" 
530 6/224
930 0/224

 

Yonge and dundas

VIP

630 35/61
1030 7/61

AVX
615 35/386
945 5/386

IMAX

500 33/356
845 36/356

 

4DX
5 30 10/82

900 10/82

 

412/8067*

 

Okay more theatres! More data yay! So i discovered eglinton area 2 different cinemas hence some confusion. The total seats sold is right as far as i know however it might be off so take with salt while i take time to do mathy stuff.

 

These counts are Toronto proper this is NOT counting missisauga richmond hill scarborough IE Greater Toronto Area...thats a whole other kettle of fish. And these are theatres with reserved. There are at least 4 that are still first come first served.

Edited August 25, 2019 by Tinalera

[Eric Atreides]

It Chapter Two Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	848	20,251	4.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 44

 

Adjusted Comp

0.311x of The Lion King 11 days before release (7.16M)

3.799x of Hobbs & Shaw 11 days before release (22.03M)

[Porthos]

So, BOP updated its Long Range Tracking, and It 2 got a bit of a haircut:

 

Quote

Notable Updates This Week

• It: Chapter Two‘s range continues to fluctuate as this week’s first reactions from critics indicate potential for varying degrees of word of mouth. Combined with the film’s near-three-hour runtime and updated social media models, we’re lowering forecasts for the time being, but we still expect another blockbuster run in the grand scheme of things.

8-Week Forecast

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
9/6/2019	It: Chapter Two	$100,000,000 – $140,000,000	$119,000,000	-14%	$290,000,000	-6%	4,200	Warner Bros. / New Line

 

Have to admit, while I don't think the sales in Sacto are bad per-se, I would have liked to see a bit more of a boost off of the initial social media buzz.  As it is, I think this might have more of a muted opening that some where hoping for a few weeks ago.

 

Still plenty of time for the pace to pick up.  And I've never tracked a horror film, so I have very little benchmarks to compare.  But just got a feeling about it.  No pun intended.

 

Be interesting to see how the movie plays in the next few days.  I saw the bump in Philly tonight, for instance, so I'll be looking to see if it replicates that bump in Sacramento or not.

Edited August 26, 2019 by Porthos