The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

I think I expressed some ambivalence on Tuesday or so with the usual caveat of “still time to pop.”    

 

Well... there’s still time to pop, but it’s like 3.5 days rather than 9, and so far this is feeling like more of an 80 opener than a 110 opener to me.

[filmlover]

If IT ends up underperforming a bit that'll be a bit of a bummer considering the month seemed to be riding on it (clearly no one wanted to get stuck between this and Joker). At least Hustlers seems like it's gonna surprise a bit.

[Krissykins]

27 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If IT ends up underperforming a bit that'll be a bit of a bummer considering the month seemed to be riding on it (clearly no one wanted to get stuck between this and Joker). At least Hustlers seems like it's gonna surprise a bit.

I’m sure it’ll still be the biggest film for the month of September lol. 

 

The last film still holds the “fall” record, even when adjusted for inflation. 

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’m sure it’ll still be the biggest film for the month of September lol. 

 

The last film still holds the “fall” record, even when adjusted for inflation. 

Oh it's gonna be massive for sure and post crazy numbers for a horror movie but after how surprisingly massive the last one was I can't help but think the studio (and the rest of the industry) thought this was gonna be a bigger deal than it's looking to be. Will anything else this month even cross $70M total?

[Krissykins]

47 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Oh it's gonna be massive for sure and post crazy numbers for a horror movie but after how surprisingly massive the last one was I can't help but think the studio (and the rest of the industry) thought this was gonna be a bigger deal than it's looking to be. Will anything else this month even cross $70M total?

I’m not sure they’d be expecting growth from the first. Maybe they are. 

 

But history shows the sequels to big horror films usually fall, especially high profile remakes. It’s hard to get audiences to return for the same scare. 

 

However, again the comparisons are shot here, the first is the biggest horror ever (unadjusted) and is also a Part Two. 

[FlashMaster659]

Unfortunately, there's a good chance I won't be able to post any updates on Thursday as I will have jury duty that day. Will depend on when I finish for the day.

[Cap]

3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Unfortunately, there's a good chance I won't be able to post any updates on Thursday as I will have jury duty that day. Will depend on when I finish for the day.

Do you want someone to cover for you so you don't lose the comps?  Porthos helped me out during SDCC, so I'm cool with repaying the favor.

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, captainwondyful said:

Do you want someone to cover for you so you don't lose the comps?  Porthos helped me out during SDCC, so I'm cool with repaying the favor.

 

Sure thing! Whoever wants to take over I'll PM the seat maps.

Edited September 2, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[el sid]

Counted today at 11am EST:
It 2:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 384 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 413 (total tickets sold for Friday, 10 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 336 / 328 (14 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 254 / 174 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 296 / 224 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 178 / 151 (11 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 49 / 65 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 166 / 131 (10 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 454 / 509 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 287 / 180 (14 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 481(only 4 showtimes) / 911 (15 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till Monday for Thursday: 2.885 and for Friday: 3.086.
Not frontloaded.

Scary Stories had on Monday 428/265, OUATIH 1.469/1.231 and H&S 1.720/1.696.
So It 2' Thursday is compared to H&S or OUATIH not very good but its Friday looks really ok.

[el sid]

By the way, these are the predictions of the numbers (the-numbers.com) for September (most are ca. on par with those of boxofficepro but several seem (too) conservative e.g. that one for Hustlers or Downtown Abbey and others are surprisingly optimistic):

It 2: 250M
Ne Zha: 25M

The Goldfinch: 25M
Hustlers: 55M

Ad Astra: 65M
Rambo: 60M
Downtown Abbey: 30M

Abominable: 85M

Edited September 2, 2019 by el sid

[Inceptionzq]

19 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 57/411(+6)

10:45 PM – 2/411

Prime: 

7 PM – 52/187

10:45 PM – 9/187

Dolby: 

7 PM – 128/217(+4)

10:45 PM – 20/217

2D: 

5 PM – 14/56(+1)

5:15 PM – 3/38

5:30 PM – 3/38(+2)

5:45 PM – 0/48

6 PM – 17/48(+3)

6:15 PM – 3/44

6:30 PM – 0/44

7 PM – 2/158

7 PM – 4/92

7:15 PM – 2/92

7:30 PM – 7/94

7:45 PM – 0/94

8 PM – 10/48(+5)

8:15 PM – 0/48

8:30 PM – 5/44

8:45 PM – 0/56

9 PM – 2/38

9:15 PM – 0/38

9:30 PM – 0/48

9:45 PM – 0/48

10 PM – 0/44

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:30 PM – 0/44

NEW 10:40 PM – 0/94

10:45 PM – 0/158

10:45 PM – 0/92

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 19/384(+3)

10:45 PM – 6/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 121/210(+3)

10:45 PM – 30/210

2D: 

5 PM – 14/85

5:30 PM – 2/52

6 PM – 2/52

6:30 PM – 9/52

7 PM – 46/159(+3)

7:30 PM – 2/85

7:45 PM – 0/85

8:45 PM – 4/85

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:45 PM – 0/52

10:15 PM – 3/52

Total from 9 theaters(112 showings): 1489(+109)/17065 (8.7%)

TLK comp: 10.28M

Hobbs comp: 19.02M

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 65/411(+8)

10:45 PM – 2/411

Prime:

7 PM – 55/187(+3)

10:45 PM – 10/187(+1)

Dolby:

7 PM – 132/217(+4)

10:45 PM – 20/217

2D:

5 PM – 14/56

5:15 PM – 7/38(+4)

5:30 PM – 3/38

5:45 PM – 0/48

6 PM – 17/48

6:15 PM – 3/44

6:30 PM – 0/44

7 PM – 6/158(+4)

7 PM – 4/92

7:15 PM – 2/92

7:30 PM – 7/94

8 PM – 10/48

8:15 PM – 3/48(+3)

8:30 PM – 7/44(+2)

8:45 PM – 0/56

9 PM – 2/38

9:15 PM – 0/38

9:30 PM – 0/48

9:45 PM – 0/48

10 PM – 0/44

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:30 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 0/94

10:45 PM – 0/158

10:45 PM – 0/92

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 19/384

10:45 PM – 6/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 121/210

10:45 PM – 32/210(+2)

2D:

5 PM – 14/85

5:30 PM – 2/52

6 PM – 2/52

6:30 PM – 9/52

7 PM – 46/159

7:30 PM – 2/85

7:45 PM – 0/85

8:45 PM – 4/85

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:45 PM – 0/52

10:15 PM – 3/52

 

Total from 9 theaters(112 showings): 1587(+98)/17065 (9.3%)

I had to do this a few hours early because I’ll most likely not be able to do a count later. So, the comps are slightly below what they’ll actually be for today. But it’s better than nothing.

TLK comp: 9.74M

Hobbs comp: 16.92M

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

If IT ends up underperforming a bit that'll be a bit of a bummer considering the month seemed to be riding on it (clearly no one wanted to get stuck between this and Joker). At least Hustlers seems like it's gonna surprise a bit.

Be kinda ironic if we get another TLK, right down to the "clearing out the schedule" bit,  where something did great (for its genre) but underperforms relative to some expectations. 

 

===

 

If i had to make a guess right now, I'd say 9 to 10 in previews.  Maybe 8.5 to 10.5 if one wants to expand out to worst/best case scenarios.  But that IS right now, as we're about to enter Prime Time when it comes to pre-sales.

[filmlover]

What might lead to some backloading for IT is the fact it's such a long movie (and unlike Endgame, there isn't any rush to beat the spoilers). Might see good holds on Saturday and Sunday due to that.

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, filmlover said:

What might lead to some backloading for IT is the fact it's such a long movie (and unlike Endgame, there isn't any rush to beat the spoilers). Might see good holds on Saturday and Sunday due to that.

Maybe.  On the other hand, 5pm start time on Thr and a ton of showtimes as well.

 

What could happen is that the weekend is relatively balanced, but the mutil off of it isn't so hot.  Again, kinda like TLK which burnt up a lot of demand between Thr and the first Discount Tue.  

 

Come to think of it, that didn't have the "rush to beat spoiler" angle as well. 

 

Hmmm...

Edited September 2, 2019 by Porthos

[JB33]

With 9-10M previews and around a 9-10x multi, It Chapter Two is looking like it COULD reach $100M for OW but I'm not betting on it anymore. Definitely bummed. I know how horror sequels work but I figured this was different. This was more of an event than just a sequel to a successful horror movie.

[keysersoze123]

AMC Empire 25 - IT Chapter 2.

 

Still no acceleration in preview ticket sales. Both prime time Dolby and Prime shows are showing almost sold out at AMC site.

 

Spoiler

IT Chapter 2
AMC Empire 25

Imax -153/303 (7PM),22/303 (1115PM) -175/606
Dolby -192/225 (7PM), 41/225 (11PM) -233/450
Prime -136/180 (7PM),37/180 (1045PM) - 171/360

2D - 13/145(A25 5PM), 7/134(A5 515PM),7/126(A3 530PM),5/134(A10 545PM), 7/121(A21 6PM), 4/121 (A15 615PM), 5/99 (A11 630PM), 17/99 (A16 645PM), 23/142 (A19 715PM), 18/262(A17 730PM), 20/144(A20 745PM), 12/262(A12 8PM),4/148(A6 815PM),26/146(A7 830PM), 2/145(A25 845PM), 7/134(A5 9PM), 4/126(A3 915PM), 9/122(A10 930PM),4/121 (A21 945PM), 2/121(A15 10PM),0/99(A11 1015PM),13/99(A16 1030PM),0/309(A9 1110PM), 8/142 (A19 1120PM), 8/262 (A17 1130PM),11/144(A20 1140PM), 9/262 (A12 1150PM),6/148 (A6 12AM) -  251/4315

Overall  -830(781)/5731 (14.48%) +49

 

[lorddemaxus]

53 minutes ago, filmlover said:

What might lead to some backloading for IT is the fact it's such a long movie (and unlike Endgame, there isn't any rush to beat the spoilers). Might see good holds on Saturday and Sunday due to that.

Also, the internal multi won't be so much lower than the first film. The first film was affected by Hurrican Irma so walkups were likely affected (maybe the first film would have had highest R rated opening if it wasn't for the hurricane too?) and this film won't be affected by that.

[Legion Again]

I wonder what % of DOM gross Florida is for normal movies. @Charlie Jatinder, is that the sort of thing you would know?

[Cap]

26 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I wonder what % of DOM gross Florida is for normal movies. @Charlie Jatinder, is that the sort of thing you would know?

I'd also tag @RthTIFF since he normally has the Theater Breakdowns and @Deep Wang because they use to work for MTC.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I'd also tag @RthTIFF since he normally has the Theater Breakdowns and @Deep Wang because they use to work for MTC.

I’m pretty confident Rth would know, but I figure they’re probably slumbering til the Queen arrives 😛