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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted

IT2 - AMC Empire 25

 

Final update. it sold 574 tickets since my update yesterday night. That is excellent finish after really slow run till couple of days back. I also looked at SF and LA and its doing really good. So hoping final previews going above early deadline numbers.

 

Spoiler

IT Chapter 2
AMC Empire 25

Imax -235/303 (7PM),64/303 (1115PM) -299/606
Dolby -199/225 (7PM), 122/225 (11PM) -321/450
Prime -149/180 (7PM),82/180 (1045PM) - 231/360

2D - 69/145(A25 5PM),39/134(A5 515PM),20/126(A3 530PM),16/134(A10 545PM), 27/121(A21 6PM), 18/121 (A15 615PM), 26/99 (A11 630PM), 38/99 (A16 645PM), 56/142 (A19 715PM), 53/262(A17 730PM), 36/144(A20 745PM), 32/262(A12 8PM),30/148(A6 815PM),48/146(A7 830PM), 26/145(A25 845PM), 30/134(A5 9PM), 14/126(A3 915PM), 31/122(A10 930PM),36/121 (A21 945PM), 15/121(A15 10PM),9/99(A11 1015PM),39/99(A16 1030PM),16/309(A9 1110PM), 8/142 (A19 1120PM), 21/262 (A17 1130PM),20/144(A20 1140PM), 17/262 (A12 1150PM),33/148 (A6 12AM) -  823/4315


Overall  - 1674(1100)/5731 (29.2%) +574

 

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted

It: Chapter 2

Thursday Previews

 

Late because Clue and Gene Kelly distracted me.

 

Lincoln Square 13
Movie Today   9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 Total %   SOs Shows
It: Chapter 2 54   811 865 933 1005 1174 3772 26.64%   0 11

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
Movie Today   9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 Total %   SOs Shows
It: Chapter 2 12   119 131 206 257 428 2039 12.60%   0 12

 

 

v Comps Final Day
Movie Sold % Est
Lincoln Square 13
It Chapter 2 1147 -- --
Endgame 5259 21.81% 13.08M
John Wick 3 675 169.92% 10.02M
Toy Story 4 1273 90.10% 10.81M
The Lion King 2483 46.10% 10.60M
OUATIH 1232 93.10% 5.39M
Cinemagic
It Chapter 2 428 -- --
Endgame 2113 20.25% 12.15M
John Wick 3 186 230.10% 13.57M
The Lion King 561 76.29% 17.54M
OUATIH 237 180.59% 10.47M
Toy Story 4 558 76.70% 9.20M

 

Lincoln Square: That's the closest I've ever seen it.  10.47M is the comp I'd use.  

 

Cinemagic came down to earth, but is still higher.  I would probably toss TLK and OUATIH out as outliers and saying locally it's comping to 12.06M

 

Fun note.  We saw Clue tonight (first time I've ever seen it) and the theater was sold out.  They were using one of the big 112 seat auditoriums too.  I was floored.  Guess we have a lot of Tim Curry fans up here.

 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

It: Chapter 2

Thursday Previews

 

Late because Clue and Gene Kelly distracted me.

 

Lincoln Square 13
Movie Today   9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 Total %   SOs Shows
It: Chapter 2 54   811 865 933 1005 1174 3772 26.64%   0 11

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
Movie Today   9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 Total %   SOs Shows
It: Chapter 2 12   119 131 206 257 428 2039 12.60%   0 12

 

 

v Comps Final Day
Movie Sold % Est
Lincoln Square 13
It Chapter 2 1147 -- --
Endgame 5259 21.81% 13.08M
John Wick 3 675 169.92% 10.02M
Toy Story 4 1273 90.10% 10.81M
The Lion King 2483 46.10% 10.60M
OUATIH 1232 93.10% 5.39M
Cinemagic
It Chapter 2 428 -- --
Endgame 2113 20.25% 12.15M
John Wick 3 186 230.10% 13.57M
The Lion King 561 76.29% 17.54M
OUATIH 237 180.59% 10.47M
Toy Story 4 558 76.70% 9.20M

 

Lincoln Square: That's the closest I've ever seen it.  10.47M is the comp I'd use.  

Quote

2nd Friday AM UPDATE, after Thursday night post, exits added: New Line Cinema’s ItChapter Two is coming in at $10.5 million

 

:bravo: :bravo: :bravo: :bravo: 

:bravo: :bravo: :bravo: :bravo: 

:bravo: :bravo: :bravo: :bravo: 

 

Spoiler

Yes, I'm cheating by ignoring your Cinemagic comp.  Hush. :lol: 

 

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Let's just pretend the only Cinemagic comp I provided was OUATIH!!!  

 

And good job Tracking Thread for nailing this one!!! We all were super on point.

 

What's the next big one coming up?  We all gonna do Gemini Man or just jump right to Frozen II? :ph34r:

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The Wild Eric Global Phenomenon

The Wild Eric

Posted
Posted
Just now, captainwondyful said:

Let's just pretend the only Cinemagic comp I provided was OUATIH!!!  

 

And good job Tracking Thread for nailing this one!!! We all were super on point.

 

What's the next big one coming up?  We all gonna do Gemini Man or just jump right to Frozen II? :ph34r:

Black and Blue

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-terminator-dark-fate-plus-a-big-joker-update/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app

 

 

10/4/2019 Joker $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 $103,000,000 27% $210,000,000 17%  

Warner Bros.

@Shawn Any reason why such a horrible multi is predicted for Joker. Early reviews are not that bad.

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The Wild Eric Global Phenomenon

The Wild Eric

Posted
Posted

Nah but for real, for those who are curious, these are my current plans when it comes to long-form tracking:

 

Jokah

Maleficent

Terminator

Doctor Sleep

Charlie's Angels

Frozen II

Jumanji

TROS

 

The bolded ones are in my "doing them no matter what" camp, for kind of obvious reasons. The stuff between Maleficent and Charlie's Angels I'm 75% sure I'm gonna do. My cutoff is whether the film is tracking for, or BOP's range indicates, a 40M+ debut is possible. But there might be a point where I'll be tracking too many movies at once, so I could scrap one of the two (oh how I miss Pulse). And if BOP's range for Sleep or Charlie isn't to my liking in two weeks (which isn't impossible), then I'll just scrap it.

 

I know that may seem like a lot, but I like doing this kind of work. Keeps the brain active. And we need somebody to track the B-tier blockbusters

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Shawn Any reason why such a horrible multi is predicted for Joker. Early reviews are not that bad.

Probably expecting bad WoM. But even then, it won't be so bad if you ask me. Movie won't be reviled like BvS. At worst it will be divisive which would get the movie around 2.4x multi I think.

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Eric! said:

I know that may seem like a lot, but I like doing this kind of work. Keeps the brain active. And we need somebody to track the B-tier blockbusters

 

giphy.gif

 

 

=

 

I've found over the six months I've been doing this that Lincoln Square's big rush is its first week, and Cinemagic's big rush is its last 48 hours.  So my game plan is to AT LEAST do First Day and Final Day sales comps for basically everything that has Thursday previews at either location.  Regardless of estimated OW.  Whether I do weekly MWF will just depend on the movie and my schedule.  And since I've been doing all the work to get data for Frozen, Maleficent and Frozen are locks.  Along with OBVIOUSLY CATS.  That's the event of December 20th RIGHT?  That's the one with the lightsabers and the guns that go pew pew, right?

 

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Eric! said:

Nah but for real, for those who are curious, these are my current plans when it comes to long-form tracking:

 

Jokah

Maleficent

Terminator

Doctor Sleep

Charlie's Angels

Frozen II

Jumanji

TROS

 

The bolded ones are in my "doing them no matter what" camp, for kind of obvious reasons. The stuff between Maleficent and Charlie's Angels I'm 75% sure I'm gonna do. My cutoff is whether the film is tracking for, or BOP's range indicates, a 40M+ debut is possible. But there might be a point where I'll be tracking too many movies at once, so I could scrap one of the two (oh how I miss Pulse). And if BOP's range for Sleep or Charlie isn't to my liking in two weeks (which isn't impossible), then I'll just scrap it.

 

I know that may seem like a lot, but I like doing this kind of work. Keeps the brain active. And we need somebody to track the B-tier blockbusters

Whatever you end up doing in the end, thanks for all the hard work!

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Old Spice Sleeper Hit

Old Spice

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

I got so used to ticket sales way out i couldnt understand why joker tickets werent showing up for pre sales lol. 

 

 

 

Gotta be next week. They're letting It 2 take center stage this weekend, and then I'll bet Joker goes on sale either Tuesday or Wednesday, after the Monday Night screening at TIFF.

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TLK Blockbuster

TLK

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-terminator-dark-fate-plus-a-big-joker-update/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app

 

 

10/4/2019 Joker $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 $103,000,000 27% $210,000,000 17%  

Warner Bros.

Terminator is going to be a difficult one to predict. I'm in the $30-35 million OW range unless the reviews are great.

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LookingforMrGoodbar Rumored Project

LookingforMrGoodbar

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/4/2019 at 12:10 PM, Eric! said:

Thanks for the heads up! Do you know anything about Jokah yet?

No, I was surprised since I thought it was going to be this week. The only ones so far for next Friday are Maleficent 2 and Charlie's Angels. Looking at a few sites that have posted showtimes, Maleficent is embargoed while Charlie's Angels is available for purchase. Oddly, Fandango has a poster of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory for CA. 

 

Edit: Actually, it wouldn't let me go through with the purchase for CA. 

Edited by LookingforMrGoodbar
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