The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Everything’s pointing  to an 100+M OW for Joker  But i’m still skeptical.The film truly is disturbing to watch and it really deserves its R rating.

[Menor the Destroyer]

27 minutes ago, Eric! said:

Haven't paid any attention to the sneaks, but the Downton Abbey sales for next Thursday are still very strong, so it might not impact things that much for OW. Will probably make it even more frontloaded than it probably will be

Friday sales are excellent as well for one week out.

[filmlover]

40 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Everything’s pointing  to an 100+M OW for Joker  But i’m still skeptical.The film truly is disturbing to watch and it really deserves its R rating.

You seen it?

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Are Downton Abbey $ for tonight going to be reported? Or just rolled into Sept 19's number?

Even if it isn't reported initially, BOM almost always has the numbers available after the fact.  Usually by the time the actual OW is done.  BOM was able to report the numbers for SLOP2's early previews, for example, even though it wasn't announced at the time

[TMP]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

You seen it?

He might have seen the footage that leaked

[el sid]

The Goldfinch, counted today at ca. 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 35 (total tickets sold for Friday, 4 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 77 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 12 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 16 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 4 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 72 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 22 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 46 (4 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9 theaters till Thursday for Friday: 294.
Increase compared to yesterday: Only 18%.
 

Other Comps: The Art of Racing in the Rain (8.1M OW) had on Thursday at that time 128/176 (but must have had good walk ups). Two films without Thursday previews, Blinded by the Light (4.3M OW) and The Kitchen (5.5M OW) had 146 respectively 519 sold tickets.

So today its presales would point rather to 8M or even worse when The Kitchen number is used. And with probably worse walk ups it could indeed stay around 5M OW. Too bad.

Edited September 12, 2019 by el sid

[filmlover]

The Goldfinch is selling horrendously around me. Starting to think a sub-$5M opening is looking more and more likely.

[xiazhi]

Downton Abbey exceeds everyone's expectation.

[Barnack]

9 hours ago, Tinalera said:

Im curious dumb question how do they track without presales? Is it numbers estimated by studio due to things like film fests? Things like tweets/shares/reactions to trailers?,

Historically tweets, pre-sales, reaction to trailers are not used, there is some specialized firm tracking all coming up release, asking (in the days by phone), say they asked 1,000 people and get mostly interested in 4 variable

 

% of people that knew about the movie unaided (you ask what movie do you know are coming up and note how often X movie get named)

% of people that are aware, if you name the movie they say they knew about it

% of people that have definite interest in that movie

% of people for who that movie is their first choice

 

Sometime they also look at stuff like being in people Top 3, they will sometime look at them by male/female over 25, M/F under 25, hispanic segment, African american population, among teenager.

 

Because they received those information about 3 time a week they can see the impact of each marketing effort (do a star going to Jimmy Fallon move a variable, online vs bus vs radio vs tv ads dollar value ......), it is not really necessarily trying to determine the precise OW (there is not that much value into getting that right) more determining if marketing is helping, looking at the trends that the money spent is causing. It is a way to adjust marketing effort on a movie and it is to get marketing over the year's to be has efficient has possible.

 

With those value they will pick from a bank of movie recent comparable (genre-target audience, mpaa rating, size of release), from that people will create an equation that match the closest the variable it could look something like

 

OW for a family movie: 3.7M + 14M*aware + 6M*first choice

OW for an R-rated sci-fi: .3M + 33M*unaided + 5M*first choice

 

A tracking update e-mails inside a studio can look like this:

> On Jun 30, 2014, at 7:18 AM, "Kaminow, David" <David_Kaminow@spe.sony.com> wrote:
>
> Sex Tape continues to steadily build in all tracking measures, while starting to define its core audience of 17-34's. In fact, among 17-34's, Sex Tape leads all of our comps in definite interest.

>
> Overall, unaided is 4 (+1), aware is 65 (+4), definite interest holds at 36 and first choice is 5 (+1).
>
> Quads:
> 3/62/32/2
> 3/69/37/5
> 6/63/39/6
> 4/63/37/7
>
> Our strength sits with the 17-34 audience, who lead the way in awareness, interest and choice.
>
> Overall 17-34
> 4/72(+6)/42(+2)/8(+3)
>
> Males 17-34
> 3/73/39/6
>
> Females 17-34
> 4/70/45/9
>
> Looking at our comps, on an overall level, we most closely resemble Horrible Bosses and We're The Millers. However, among 17-34's we lead the way in awareness and interest and are near the top in first choice.

>
> OVERALL
> Sex Tape 4/65/36/5
> The Heat 3/57/39/6
> Bad Teacher 4/67/40/7
> Horrible Bosses 2/59/36/4
> We're The Millers 1/59/37/4
> The Other Woman 2/59/35/7
>
> 17-34's
> Sex Tape 4/72/42/8
> The Heat 4/53/37/5
> Bad Teacher 5/68/40/9
> Horrible Bosses 2/62/37/6
> We're The Millers 1/58/41/7
> The Other Woman 2/60/32/7

 

Or for example, that was Sony tracking from NGR they received Thursday December 19 (american hustle and Saving Mr Banks were both facing each other that Friday and that weekend, both already playing in limited release).

 

Saving Mr. Banks weekend Dec 20-22 2013: 9.34M

American Hustle. weekend Dec 20-22 2013: 19.1M

 

Their tracking looked like this  (UA: unaided, TA: Total awareness, Def: Defininte interest, FC: First choice).

 

The first number is the average of all quadrant after that you have Male under 25 followed by male over 25, female under 25 than female over 25

American Hustle(12/20/2013)
UA : 17 : 16 : 17 : 16 : 18
TA : 73 : 66 : 83 : 67 : 77
Def: 41 : 39 : 45 : 35 : 45
FC : 08 : 04 : 11 : 06 : 12

Saving Mr. Banks(12/20/2013)
UA : 14 : 11 : 11 : 16 : 16
TA : 80 : 74 : 81 : 79 : 86
Def: 39 : 29 : 37 : 42 : 48
FC : 09 : 05 : 09 : 09 : 12

 

Not obvious tracking got that Hustle would double Mr. Banks on their respective OW, it tracked below it since November, but when they were looking at those numbers they were seeing real money being really possible, I guess over time you get a feel to what tracking would look like for a Disney movie about some well known element vs an complete original.

 

For movie starting on Christmas

 

The Secret Life Of Walter Mitty(12/25/2013)
UA : 07 : 06 : 08 : 12 : 02
TA : 66 : 67 : 64 : 63 : 68
Def: 39 : 37 : 42 : 42 : 37
FC : 03 : 01 : 06 : 06 : 01

 

The Wolf Of Wall Street(12/25/2013)
UA : 05 : 05 : 06 : 05 : 04
TA : 71 : 66 : 81 : 62 : 76
Def: 36 : 32 : 40 : 33 : 39
FC : 04 : 04 : 05 : 03 : 05

 

Wolf OD was 9.15M vs 7.713m for Walter Mitty.

 

A blockbuster in comparison numbers can look like (near 100% total awareness really close to release)

> The Amazing Spider-Man 2(05/02/2014)
> UA : 32 : 36 : 37 : 26 : 29
> TA : 96 : 99 : 97 : 95 : 93
> Def: 61 : 69 : 68 : 56 : 50
> FC : 21 : 26 : 26 : 19 : 13

 

Edited September 13, 2019 by Barnack

[FlashMaster659]

The Hustlers Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [1:00pm - 1:30pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	58	1466	10395	8929	14.10%

Edited September 13, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

Historically tweets, pre-sales, reaction to trailers are not used, there is some specialized firm tracking all coming up release, asking (in the days by phone), say they asked 1,000 people and get mostly interested in 4 variable

 

% of people that knew about the movie unaided (you ask what movie do you know are coming up and note how often X movie get named)

% of people that are aware, if you name the movie they say they knew about it

% of people that have definite interest in that movie

% of people for who that movie is their first choice

 

Sometime they also look at stuff like being in people Top 3, they will sometime look at them by male/female over 25, M/F under 25, hispanic segment, African american population, among teenager.

 

Because they received those information about 3 time a week they can see the impact of each marketing effort (do a star going to Jimmy Fallon move a variable, online vs bus vs radio vs tv ads dollar value ......), it is not really necessarily trying to determine the precise OW (there is not that much value into getting that right) more determining if marketing is helping, looking at the trends that the money spent is causing. It is a way to adjust marketing effort on a movie and it is to get marketing over the year's to be has efficient has possible.

 

With those value they will pick from a bank of movie recent comparable (genre-target audience, mpaa rating, size of release), from that people will create an equation that match the closest the variable it could look something like

 

OW for a family movie: 3.7M + 14M*aware + 6M*first choice

OW for an R-rated sci-fi: .3M + 33M*unaided + 5M*first choice

 

A tracking update e-mails inside a studio can look like this:

> On Jun 30, 2014, at 7:18 AM, "Kaminow, David" wrote:
>
> Sex Tape continues to steadily build in all tracking measures, while starting to define its core audience of 17-34's. In fact, among 17-34's, Sex Tape leads all of our comps in definite interest. @spe.sony.com>

>
> Overall, unaided is 4 (+1), aware is 65 (+4), definite interest holds at 36 and first choice is 5 (+1).
>
> Quads:
> 3/62/32/2
> 3/69/37/5
> 6/63/39/6
> 4/63/37/7
>
> Our strength sits with the 17-34 audience, who lead the way in awareness, interest and choice.
>
> Overall 17-34
> 4/72(+6)/42(+2)/8(+3)
>
> Males 17-34
> 3/73/39/6
>
> Females 17-34
> 4/70/45/9
>
> Looking at our comps, on an overall level, we most closely resemble Horrible Bosses and We're The Millers. However, among 17-34's we lead the way in awareness and interest and are near the top in first choice.

>
> OVERALL
> Sex Tape 4/65/36/5
> The Heat 3/57/39/6
> Bad Teacher 4/67/40/7
> Horrible Bosses 2/59/36/4
> We're The Millers 1/59/37/4
> The Other Woman 2/59/35/7
>
> 17-34's
> Sex Tape 4/72/42/8
> The Heat 4/53/37/5
> Bad Teacher 5/68/40/9
> Horrible Bosses 2/62/37/6
> We're The Millers 1/58/41/7
> The Other Woman 2/60/32/7

 

Or for example, that was Sony tracking from NGR they received Thursday December 19 (american hustle and Saving Mr Banks were both facing each other that Friday and that weekend, both already playing in limited release).

 

Saving Mr. Banks weekend Dec 20-22 2013: 9.34M

American Hustle. weekend Dec 20-22 2013: 19.1M

 

Their tracking looked like this  (UA: unaided, TA: Total awareness, Def: Defininte interest, FC: First choice).

 

The first number is the average of all quadrant after that you have Male under 25 followed by male over 25, female under 25 than female over 25

American Hustle(12/20/2013)
UA : 17 : 16 : 17 : 16 : 18
TA : 73 : 66 : 83 : 67 : 77
Def: 41 : 39 : 45 : 35 : 45
FC : 08 : 04 : 11 : 06 : 12

Saving Mr. Banks(12/20/2013)
UA : 14 : 11 : 11 : 16 : 16
TA : 80 : 74 : 81 : 79 : 86
Def: 39 : 29 : 37 : 42 : 48
FC : 09 : 05 : 09 : 09 : 12

 

Not obvious tacking got that Hustle would double Mr. Banks on their respective OW, it tracked below it since November, but when they were looking at those numbers they were seeing real money being really possible, I guess over time you get a feel to what tracking would look like for a Disney movie about some well known element vs an complete original.

 

For movie starting on Christmas

 

The Secret Life Of Walter Mitty(12/25/2013)
UA : 07 : 06 : 08 : 12 : 02
TA : 66 : 67 : 64 : 63 : 68
Def: 39 : 37 : 42 : 42 : 37
FC : 03 : 01 : 06 : 06 : 01

 

The Wolf Of Wall Street(12/25/2013)
UA : 05 : 05 : 06 : 05 : 04
TA : 71 : 66 : 81 : 62 : 76
Def: 36 : 32 : 40 : 33 : 39
FC : 04 : 04 : 05 : 03 : 05

 

Wolf OD was 9.15M vs 7.713m for Walter Mitty.

 

A blockbuster in comparison numbers can look like (near 100% total awareness really close to release)

> The Amazing Spider-Man 2(05/02/2014)
> UA : 32 : 36 : 37 : 26 : 29
> TA : 96 : 99 : 97 : 95 : 93
> Def: 61 : 69 : 68 : 56 : 50
> FC : 21 : 26 : 26 : 19 : 13

 

 

Thats a mini lesson in itself! Thank you very much that really gives me an idea of how it works! Awesome writeup which i will use for future reference! Awesome job.

[PenguinHyphy]

What is Ad Astra's budget because it is probably going to have First Man opening numbers at best? 

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

What is Ad Astra's budget because it is probably going to have First Man opening numbers at best? 

Minimum seem to be around $87M net:

http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/CA-Tax-Credit-Progress-Report-FINAL-DRAFT-11-2-18.pdf

 

The massed down talked about in the trade being 80M, it is probably not much higher than that $87M figure (seem to have been completely shoot in California)

 

Early tracking had more 20-22M in mind than First Man opening number and seem to have went down to 16M-21M, going down isn't usually a good sign, the movie should do better than 57.5% intl too.

[Cap]

Downton Abbey - 7PM Avdanced Screening
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Lincoln Square 13
Downton Abbey	254	--	--
Rocketman	470	54.04%	.945K
OUATIH	1232	20.61%	1.19M
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Downton Abbey	147	--	--
Rocketman	57	257.89%	4.51M
OUATIH	237	62.02%	3.59M

 

--

The old white people up here in Maine are gonna nuts for Downton Abbey.  LMFAO.  Clearly it's not gonna make that, but I thought you'd enjoy the laugh.  

 

Okay so I fixed the typo.  Old white people still going nuts, but not NUTS / LOL WTF comps I had when I plugged in LS13's numbers into SMCM's comps.

 

I've never done an advanced screening, but this seems really good to me.  It's sold more than a couple films I've tracked that had a full four or six showings on Thursday.  I could see it coming in at 1M+

Edited September 12, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Eric Duncan]

Hustlers Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report FINAL UPDATE

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	1,085	6,728	16.13%

Total Showings Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 210

Total Seats Sold Today: 612

 

Comp

0.570x of Once Upon's final numbers (3.31M)

1.667x of Scary Stories' final numbers (3.88M)

1.545x of Good Boys' final numbers (3.24M)

 

 All the numbers are pointing to a comfortable range, and a very good one at that. I don't want to get people's hopes up, so I'll say these numbers are very optimistic for the time being. But if those kinds of numbers come true, something like 40M+ is very possible. Maybe even higher!

Edited September 12, 2019 by Eric!

[RealLyre]

40M would be a pretty insane opening for Hustlers. would kill @Thanos Legion 's club in 3 days 

 

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

40M would be a pretty insane opening for Hustlers. would kill @Thanos Legion 's club in 3 days 

 

RIP   

 

Definiteky for the best that that that club die though

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/11/2019 at 4:40 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Downtown Abbey Thursday Night(12th) Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

Dolby:

7 PM – 131/217(+13)

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

Dolby:

7 PM – 131/210(+7)

Total from 9 theaters(11 showings): 676(+46)/1552(+202)(43.6%) 

Downtown Abbey Thursday Night(12th) Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

Dolby:

7 PM – 139/217(+8)

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

Dolby:

7 PM – 145/210(+14)

Total from 9 theaters(13 showings): 809(+133)/1753(+201)(43.6%)

Adjusted OUATiH comp: 2.43M

Hobbs comp: 2.29M

Adjusted Good Boys comp: 2.07M

I don’t think it’ll actually get this much. The theater count is probably a decent chunk lower than these comps, and the number of showings is small. Nonetheless, this is looking pretty good. It should make a good amount. Not really sure how much though, advanced screenings is not something I’ve predicted before.

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/11/2019 at 5:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Hustlers Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

Dolby: 

NEW 10:30 PM – 2/217(+2)

2D:

7 PM – 59/92(+3)

NEW 8 PM – 4/36(+4)

10 PM – 17/92(+4)

NEW 10:45 PM – 0/36

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

7 PM – 14/37(+8)

9:15 PM – 2/41(+2) 

Total from 9 theaters(23 showings): 332(+95)/2471(+551) (13.4%) 

Adjusted OUATiH comp: 2.04M

Hobbs comp: 2.14M

Lion King comp: 1.49M

Adjusted IT 2 comp: 1.43M

Hustlers Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

Dolby:

10:30 PM – 26/217(+24)

2D:

7 PM – 68/92(+9)

8 PM – 22/36(+18)

10 PM – 21/92(+4)

10:45 PM – 4/36(+4)

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

7 PM – 24/37(+10)

9:15 PM – 10/41(+8)

Total from 9 theaters(26 showings): 845(+513)/2662(+191) (31.7%)

Adjusted OUATiH comp: 2.62M

Adjusted Good Boys comp: 2.24M

Hobbs comp: 2.39M

Lion King comp: 2.56M

IT 2 comp: 2.28M

As typical of Denver, it exploded on the last day. I think it’ll come up on the higher end of this range, maybe even surpassing it. I did a last minute sweep of the 7PM showings after my initial count, and some of those showings sold a good amount in probably just 15-20 minutes. Looking at Eric’s numbers, I wonder if this will play better on the East Coast. So, I’ll go a little bold here, at least for my numbers, and go with 2.85M

Edited September 13, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[FlashMaster659]

The Hustlers Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [6:00pm - 6:40pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	2075	10758	8683	19.29%

 

Shows Added Since 1:30 PM: 2

Seats Added Since 1:30 PM: 363

Seats Sold Since 1:30 PM: 609

 

Adjusted Comps:

	Time	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
It: 2	3:30-6:30	22.35%		n/a	9068		0/221	31775/40843	22.20%		2.35m
The Hustlers (It: 2 adj)	6:00-6:40	n/a		n/a	2027		0/56	8683/10758	19.29%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: The Hustlers (It: 2 adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I got complete data for It: 2. Unfortunately I couldn't get complete data from the Ontario Palace on the final report for It: 2.

 

===

 

Based on how the theaters for It: 2 performed during the time period of my final report last week, I would guess It would have sold somewhere in the 9350-9500 seat ballpark if I had gotten complete data from the Ontario Palace.

 

My guess for The Hustlers previews tonight will be $2.3M.

Edited September 13, 2019 by FlashMaster659