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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1) Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw

Opening Weekend: $60 M
Monthly Box Office: $154.7 M

The number one film in August - the biggest opener - and I still think there was money left on the table. You don’t put Dwayne The Rock Johnson front and center in a nearly two decade old franchise that is still running on high octane fuel and expect these kind of returns. The first film opened to over $40 million when Vin Diesel still sounded like a porn name, and that was eighteen years ago! These movies punched above $70 million starting with the return of the original crew in 2009’s Fast and Furious (4), and have seen opening weekends higher than the domestic grosses of prior entries! Adjusted for inflation, this movie is only going to beat Tokyo Drift on the domestic front. The good news is Johnson and Statham had the multiplex to themselves for the most part, giving them some decent weekend drops usually hovering around 43%, and the international totals are expectedly huge. It does have a massive $200 million budget, but with over $700 million worldwide Universal will probably do okay. The real number 9 burns rubber next May, so watch out!
 

 

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=19909

 

does Dwayne Johnson let kids throw pies in his face?

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2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

If Downtown Abbey spin off movie can get 30m opening, there is no doubt a well made Game of throne movie can trigger 100m right?

I am not so sure about that. Harry Potter was a bigger phenomena and even then only 3 of its movies crossed $100 million. Neither of the two prequels/spin-offs came close. None of the Hobbit movies did $100 million OW and , yes, I know a couple of them could've cleared $100 million if they were November openers.

 

Edited to add - A Game of Thrones film will have to be R-rated for sure and that will further reduce the chances of $100 million OW.

Edited by TLK

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6 minutes ago, TLK said:

I am not so sure about that. Harry Potter was a bigger phenomena and even then only 3 of its movies crossed $100 million. Neither of the two prequels/spin-offs came close. None of the Hobbit movies did $100 million OW and , yes, I know a couple of them could've cleared $100 million if they were November openers.

HP was a long time ago. The only opening below 100M adjusted was HBP at 95M. And that was still a top 25 OW, which is good for 140+ nowadays (again, a stark example of OWs growing faster than simple yearly ATP).

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Bad news for people on this thread. Take this with a grain of salt but someone on Reddit asked AMC, Regal, and Showcase on Twitter and they all said Joker will have no proper presales. Tickets are supposedly going on sale on October 2nd/3rd. Again, take it with a grain of salt and maybe WB hasn't given cinemas presales info. 

 

Edit: UK ticket sales are supposedly starting this Friday though. So it might just be that WB just hasn't told American cinema chains.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Bad news for people on this thread. Take this with a grain of salt but someone on Reddit asked AMC, Regal, and Showcase on Twitter and they all said Joker will have no proper presales. Tickets are supposedly going on sale on October 2nd/3rd. Again, take it with a grain of salt and maybe WB hasn't given cinemas presales info. 

 

Edit: UK ticket sales are supposedly starting this Friday though. So it might just be that WB just hasn't told American cinema chains.

 

 

 

Yeah I’d probably take that with a grain of salt. I couldn’t find anything with them saying October 2nd/3rd

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2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Bad news for people on this thread. Take this with a grain of salt but someone on Reddit asked AMC, Regal, and Showcase on Twitter and they all said Joker will have no proper presales. Tickets are supposedly going on sale on October 2nd/3rd. Again, take it with a grain of salt and maybe WB hasn't given cinemas presales info. 

 

Edit: UK ticket sales are supposedly starting this Friday though. So it might just be that WB just hasn't told American cinema chains.

Sounds like the work of the Joker himself. Well no one's laughing now!

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4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

HP was a long time ago. The only opening below 100M adjusted was HBP at 95M. And that was still a top 25 OW, which is good for 140+ nowadays (again, a stark example of OWs growing faster than simple yearly ATP).

And really the only reason for that is the fact that it was a Wednesday opener so its 5 day would be very comparable. 

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1 hour ago, Firepower said:

What's up with Rambo pre-sales?

Will count it (and Ad Astra) in a few hours. From what I saw its sales are pretty similar to that of Angel has Fallen.

Edited by el sid
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6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

 

 

Edit: UK ticket sales are supposedly starting this Friday though. So it might just be that WB just hasn't told American cinema chains.

Pre-sales started last week in France, but for previews only. The few theaters I'm looking at are seeing nice sales, but nothing amazing.

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Ad Astra, counted today at ca. 12am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 100 / 122 (total tickets sold for Thursday / total tickets sold for Friday, 6 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 65 / 49 (4 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 28 / 47 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 77 / 40 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 18 / 8 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 18 / 19 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 11 / 9 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 284 / 292 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 25 / 18 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 313 / 218 (8 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till today for Thursday: 939 and for Friday: 822.

Not bad at all! With the tiny constraint that I also see a big gap between its IMAX shows and the normal shows.
Difficult to find good comps: OUaTiH had at that time 1.469 / 1.231, The Art of Racing in the Rain had only 62 / 66, The Kitchen 0 / 216.
 

Rambo: Last Blood, counted today at ca. 12am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 24 / - (total tickets sold for Thursday / total tickets sold for Friday)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 20 / 38 (5 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 9 / 9 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 22 / 11 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 8 / 15 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 8 / 5 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 11 / 3 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 73 / 58 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 30 / 12 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 59 / 24 (5 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 and 9 theaters till today for Thursday: 264 and for Friday: 175.

 

My comps will be Stuber (but that film must have had way worse walk ups than e.g. AhF because from presales it was at times almost on par) and mainly Angel has Fallen. I think I can skip H&S as comparison because that movie had partly 10x as many sold tickets as AhF in my 10 theaters and in the end it had only 3 times as many admissions.
Stuber had on Monday at the same time 186 / 131 sold tickets in 7 theaters (NY (too), Texas and Michigan were still missing) which would put Rambo at the moment at ca. 11-12M OW (if it would have the same daily jumps and bad walk ups).
AhF had on Monday at that time (also with no Fresh Meadows Friday showtimes) 278 / 176 which would mean at the moment an OW of 21M (with good walk ups). E.g. in LA, Rambo is slightly in front of AhF but doing worse in Miami.

Edited by el sid
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7 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Bad news for people on this thread. Take this with a grain of salt but someone on Reddit asked AMC, Regal, and Showcase on Twitter and they all said Joker will have no proper presales. Tickets are supposedly going on sale on October 2nd/3rd. Again, take it with a grain of salt and maybe WB hasn't given cinemas presales info. 

 

Edit: UK ticket sales are supposedly starting this Friday though. So it might just be that WB just hasn't told American cinema chains.

 

giphy.gif

Can't have a backlash to your movie from the general public if you never put tickets on sale for said movie.

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6 hours ago, narniadis said:

And really the only reason for that is the fact that it was a Wednesday opener so its 5 day would be very comparable. 

Yeah, that’s a pretty important note XD    

 

I wish BOM would put a * or something on OWs that weren’t the first 3 days...

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4 hours ago, Parasite said:

Pre-sales started last week in France, but for previews only. The few theaters I'm looking at are seeing nice sales, but nothing amazing.

Any sense of the French critical reaction yet? There had to have been a contingent of French journalists at Venice. 

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Just chiming in joker in toronto the same.  No date from cineplex yet as to ticket sale times. 

 

Would a director have a say in presales? If he did i could see him not wanting a "comic book movie hype" and actually wanting it close to opening

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10 hours ago, Firepower said:

What's up with Rambo pre-sales?

61/1842 across 7 theaters in Denver. Hustlers comp points to 1M for previews. I’ll do a Hobbs and OUATiH comp once I’m able to properly adjust for theaters

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On 9/15/2019 at 4:17 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Downton Abbey Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

2D:

7 PM – 53/92(+4)

10 PM – 3/92

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

Dolby:

7 PM – 71/210(+6)

Total from 8 theaters(14 showings): 256(+27)/1857(13.8%) 

Adjusted Hustlers comp: 4.13M

Downton Abbey Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

2D:

7 PM – 55/92(+2)

10 PM – 3/92

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

Dolby:

7 PM – 85/210(+14)

2D:

NEW 7 PM – 0/159

Total from 8 theaters(15 showings): 249(-7)/2083(+226)(12%)

Adjusted Hustlers comp: 2.7M

OUATiH comp: 2.59M

One of the theaters decided to move a showing to a larger showroom. It had 38/47 sold. Though, it was understandable that they’d want to move it to a larger one. But still slightly annoying. So, the amount of tickets sold today was 31. Also, the day to day sales have now fallen behind Hustlers like I thought it would.

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Ad Astra Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 26 157 5,000 3.14%

 

Comp

0.241x of Once Upon 3 days before release (1.4M)

0.101x of It Chapter Two 3 days before release (1.06M)

0.577x of Hustlers 3 days before release (1.44M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.214x of Hobbs & Shaw 3 days before release (1.24M)

 

This is a hard one to crack. There aren't a lot of good comps, with the closest one (at least that I have) being Once Upon, and even then that movie started previews at 4, which doesn't make it a perfect one-to-one comparison (though if people have ones to recommend, then I'm all ears). So I kind of threw in some dramas that hit it big, and It 2 and Hobbs & Shaw, since they're adult-skewing movies that probably got a decent amount of IMAX money to them.

 

As is, those numbers seem...okay? The movie's playing a bit more IMAX-heavy at the moment, though that could change in the coming days. But none of these numbers scream a breakout, since even that 1.44M, when using First Man's IM, would only barely cross 20M. As always, hoping for the best in the next couple of days

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Downton Abbey Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 15 429 2,152 19.93%

 

Comp

0.659x of Once Upon 3 days before release (3.82M)

1.577x of Hustlers 3 days before release (3.94M)

 

So these sales are pretty bonkers, especially since this is in a smaller amount of theaters at the moment (though we'll probably see some increases soon). Of course, this is also pretty fan-driven, so these near 4M previews listed here could be inflated. But still, on the right track to do something great.

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