The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Krissykins]

Ad Astra looking like a flop already. 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

Joker is already selling here on Brazil

[Manny G]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Joker is already selling here on Brazil

Wig

[Manny G]

Joker is still on track for the October record can’t wait for the presales to start to have a clearer picture. I think it will overperform like crazy.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/joker-tracking-record-82m-october-debut-1241010

[Legion Again]

More details from that article for Joker: 

Quote

Warner Bros.' dark supervillain origin story, starring Joaquin Phoenix in the titular role, is pacing for a domestic debut of $82 million over the Oct. 4-6 weekend, according to those with access to estimates from industry leader NRG. Another service has the R-rated pic coming in at $77 million, while some have it even higher at $87 million.

And Gemini Man 

Quote

New titles on tracking include Ang Lee's sci-fi epic Gemini Man, starring Will Smith. Early NRG estimates show the the sci-fi epic debuting domestically to $29 million, ahead of Lee's Life of Pi ($22.5 million). The pic opens Oct. 11. The range being given by the combined services is $28 million to $30 million.

Pretty close to BOP’s 27.

Edited September 19, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[DAJK]

Close to 30 would honestly be great for Gemini Man. If it's as good as people are saying, it could leg it to 100M. OS should also be pretty big too (200-300). 

[Krissykins]

Disney really putting Ad Astra is 3,460 cinemas for a mid teens opening oop

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local

2 shows added this afternoon to DA

 

THUR 4pm
Ad Astra - 41/602
Downton Abbey -  52/1015
Rambo - 58/1242

 

COMPS 
OUATIH (Thur 4:20pm) 335/1179 - $5.8m previews
X7 (Thur 3:45pm) 272/942 = (6pm start ) - $5m
GODZ2 (Thur 3:30pm) 204 / 2150 = 9.488%  (4pm start) - $5.9m

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Disney really putting Ad Astra is 3,460 cinemas for a mid teens opening oop

They don't pay for prints any more so why not?  Screens are open. 

[Justin4125]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Disney really putting Ad Astra is 3,460 cinemas for a mid teens opening oop

Whats the big deal with that? First Man was tracking at the same level and Universal put in 3640 theaters. I think its awesome that Disney is willing to push an adult oriented artsy sci-fi movie that they know is far from a surefire win. Besides, Disney isnt really used to batting at this lower level.... Im happy theyre respecting the legacy Fox assets

Edited September 19, 2019 by Justin4125

[xiazhi]

26 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Disney really putting Ad Astra is 3,460 cinemas for a mid teens opening oop

WB gave The Goldfinch 2542 theatres for a 2.6m opening

[Krissykins]

13 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

They don't pay for prints any more so why not?  Screens are open. 

Well I can assure you they weren’t booking that many locations with hopes of a $15m opening. 

7 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

Whats the big deal with that? First Man was tracking at the same level and Universal put in 3640 theaters. I think its awesome that Disney is willing to push an adult oriented artsy sci-fi movie that they know is far from a surefire win. Besides, Disney isnt really used to batting at this lower level.... Im happy theyre respecting the legacy Fox assets

They would have had the theatres booked before this most recent tracking came in.
 

See above/ 

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123 Ad Astra slaying here. Joker tickets now on sale.

[Old Spice]

Thursday Salt Lake report for Downton, Rambo, and Astra. Sugarhouse Cinemark, 3:00 PM. Five showtimes for D.A., three for Rambo, and 2 for Astra.

 

D.A. 103/266 38.7%

Hasn't maintained its earlier momentum, but still looking to easily take the weekend crown. Evening shows are solid, literally no tix sold for the post 10:00 PM screenings. Weekend looks very strong. 250 tix already sold for Friday.

Comps:

51% of OUATIH = $20.55 OW

102% of Godzilla = $48.7 OW

191% of Rocketman = $49 OW

 

Ad Astra

29/208 13.9%

Really hate to see this. When did intelligent sci fi die? Arrival limped over $100M and BR:2049 couldn't even manage that ($92M). Astra would love to see those numbers, but $50 seems the longest of shots at this point. 49 tix sold for Friday.

 

Rambo

21/174 12%

All I can say is, this looks like the movie Dirk Diggler would have dreamt of making had he gone legit. It will probably get 8 million walkups and wind up winning the weekend. 17 tix sold for Friday.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 19, 2019 by A Star is Orm
typo

[FlashMaster659]

Downton Abbey Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:20pm - 12:50pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	669	7415	6746	9.02%

 

Comps:

	Time	%			Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
The Hustlers	1:00-1:30	45.63%			1466		0/58	8929/10395	14.10%		1.14m

 

Edited September 19, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[FlashMaster659]

Ad Astra Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:50pm - 1:10pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	607	8774	8167	6.92%

 

Comps:

	Time	%			Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
The Hustlers	1:00-1:30	41.41%			1466		0/58	8929/10395	14.10%		1.04m

 

[FlashMaster659]

Rambo: Last Blood Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [1:10pm - 1:40pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	51	654	13014	12360	5.03%

 

Comps:

	Time	%			Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
The Hustlers	1:00-1:30	44.61%			1466		0/58	8929/10395	14.10%		1.12m

 

[tonytr87]

1 hour ago, Justin4125 said:

Whats the big deal with that? First Man was tracking at the same level and Universal put in 3640 theaters. I think its awesome that Disney is willing to push an adult oriented artsy sci-fi movie that they know is far from a surefire win. Besides, Disney isnt really used to batting at this lower level.... Im happy theyre respecting the legacy Fox assets

 

Some people here literally root against dramas and artier movies. Why I don't come around nearly as often anymore. 

[Porthos]

👍 on the excellent chart usage, BTW, @FlashMaster659.  Been meaning to comment on it and I thought I would take the opportunity to do it now. 

[Eric Atreides]

Ad Astra Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	474	5,533	8.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 219

 

Comp

0.249x of Once Upon's final count (1.44M)

0.137x of It Chapter Two's final count (1.44M)

0.437x of Hustlers' final count (1.09M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.203x of Hobbs & Shaw's final count (1.18M)

 

I'm sure some people will be excited by these numbers, and the big increase in some of these comps. However, with Once Upon and It 2, they opened three and two hours earlier respectively to Ad Astra. That really impacts things. Hustlers and Hobbs & Shaw meanwhile had 7PM previews, much like Ad Astra, and they're pointing to the piss-poor, First Man like numbers from before. I would love to see this have previews that high, and maybe it could, but I'm erring on the side of caution.

Edited September 19, 2019 by Eric!